Don't let wishful thinking override the facts in Syria. HTS today resembles Hamas before October 7 , and Israel's response is the most sane of anyone's. ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Friday, December 13, 2024

Don't let wishful thinking override the facts in Syria. HTS today resembles Hamas before October 7 , and Israel's response is the most sane of anyone's.

One of the biggest traps that diplomats and pundits (and intelligence chiefs) fall into is substituting wishful thinking for objectively looking at the facts.

Here's an example from Professor Dror Ze'evi in Haaretz, but it applies to countless people buoyed by the lightning events in Syria:

The rebel leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Golani), is speaking from every possible platform about his desire for a representative government that will even be tolerant of the Alawites, who are identified with the old regime. Perhaps in the end, he will prove to be a terrorist who will lead his people into an attack on Israel. But the hysteria over this issue is exaggerated.

Israel is stronger than all the Syrian organizations put together. And since the air force has already attacked Syria's arsenals of chemical weapons and other strategic weapons, they possess nothing that could threaten Israel. Moreover, to a large extent, they owe their success in defeating the regime to the Israel Defense Forces' achievements in the war against Hezbollah and Iran, and they are aware of this.

...A democracy, or something close to it, in Syria that objects to Iranian intervention would be a significant advantage for Israel. It would ensure an end to arms transfers to Hezbollah, get rid of the Iranian militias that have entrenched themselves in Syria and turn Iran's plan for a joint, multifront operation to destroy Israel into a dead letter. It would also create an opening for peace in the future.

In addition, following the direct attack Iran suffered and the collapse of its proxies, there are powerful elements within that country that are interested in reconsidering its militant policy. It's true that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei opposes such a step, but the moderate groups are becoming louder.

Yet despite all this, Israel is behaving brutally and shortsightedly. It has occupied territory in Syria and has positioned itself from the start as hostile to Syria. Instead, immediately after the regime fell, the country's leaders should have wished Syrians success in replacing Assad's evil regime and said they would be happy to have peaceful, brotherly relations with Syria.

Firstly, the last paragraph is inaccurate. Netanyahu's message to Syria was not hostile, but resolute, and he indeed did say that he would be happy to have peaceful relations with Syria.

We send a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria: to the Druze, to the Kurds, to the Christians, and to the Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel. We're going to follow events very carefully. If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel.

The message is that Israel wants peace but is prepared for any eventuality. Which is exactly the correct attitude.

Starting a lovefest for Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham because its leader has made some moderate statements is shortsighted. The keyword isn't embracing him but using caution.

Two weeks ago no one in the West publicly supported the jihadist Syrian rebels taking over Syria. Now the entire West is jubilant over the end of what they had previously effectively supported: a brutal but stable regime. The messaging is inconsistent and the responses have been inconsistent as well.

Rebuilding Syria is important. The West should not let China or Russia step into the vacuum and become the new Syria's major sponsor, and if that means judicious and contingent loosening of some sanctions or terrorist designations that exist against HTS and al-Joublani, those decisions need to be made with a clear head.

However, treating HTS as a suddenly respectable political group is as shortsighted as supporting Hezbollah as a political party was.

HTS has a history of brutality, including after it broke with Al Qaeda.

For five years, HTS has controlled Idlib, and we can look there to see a little about its philosophy of governance. It includes arbitrary arrests of critics, torture, extrajudicial executions, anti-woman laws, forced conversions to Sunni Islam, confiscating property of Druze and Christians, stealing humanitarian aid, using human shields and using children as suicide bombers.

Which means they are pretty much the Syrian Hamas - a jihadist group that also enjoyed worldwide respect as being pragmatic and wanting stability and peace before October 7. An Islamist group that claimed to do what is best for the people while building up a powerful army that was stronger than the ruling government's.

Additionally, there is a dismal record of successful revolutions where there are competing rebel groups.

Encouraging the longshot of transforming Syria into a stable, democratic regime must not only be based on carrots but also sticks. While no one expects the jihadists to start loving Israel or Jews, they respect power, and Israel has shown power while still extending a hand for peace.

As far as I can tell, the hundreds of Israeli airstrikes against Syrian weapons this week - many of them causing spectacular secondary explosions - has not killed or injured a single person. That is a message that is being heard loud and clear.

Israel's caution seems to be the most sane reaction to Syria of anyone in the world.