The Trump Lame Duck Test, round 6

The test I proposed to Hen Mazzig to see if Donald Trump would continue to help Israel while a lame duck President (which would indicate his support for Israel is sincere) continues, and I believe I am winning handily.

Israel and Morocco have agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations, US President Donald Trump announced Thursday, marking the fourth Arab-Israel agreement in four months.

As part of the announcement, Trump said that the US would recognize Morocco’s claim over the disputed Western Sahara region.

As his time in office winds down, Trump said Israel and Morocco would restore diplomatic and other relations, including the immediate opening of liaison offices in Rabat and Tel Aviv and the eventual opening of embassies. US officials said it would also include joint overflight rights for airlines.

A year ago, just the announcement of allowing the overflight rights would have been front page news. Now it is practically a footnote.

Previous rounds:

Round 1

Round 2

Rounds 3, 4 and 5

Can Oman be round 7?

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The Trump Lame Duck Test, rounds 3, 4 and 5

On November 6, Hen Mazzig tweeted, "Trump’s ‘support’ for Israel was never a gift. He cared more about the way Christians viewed it, than the lives of American Jews, made Israel a partisan issue, and harmed public opinion towards Israel. Remember, Trump cares only about himself."

I wrote a post disagreeing, and proposing a test: 

Assuming that he has lost the election, he is a lame duck president.

If he ignores Israel in his remaining weeks in office, then that would strongly indicate that Mazzig is right.

If he works to do more things that are good for Israel, then that would strongly indicate that Trump really is pro-Israel.

In Round 1, I said that reports that the Trump administration planned on pushing new rounds of sanctions up until he leaves office indicates that I am right. Mazzig responded that Trump didn't personally do this, saying all he was doing was playing golf. (He then retweeted the fake news that Trump unfollowed Netanyahu on Twitter.)

In Round 2, I noted a story that an American official stated that Trump would do all he can for Israel until the last minute. Mazzig dismissed that:

I'm fine with saying that the test is about actions, but if one wants to redefine everything good for Israel as really being good for himself - even after the election - then this test is meaningless, since it means that no matter what Trump or his administration do, some reason can be found to make it about Trump, real or imagined. 

Since then we have round 3, 4 and 5, all of them courtesy of Mike Pompeo.

Round 3 was saying that the US would start to determine whether any organizations that are funded by the US are adhering to BDS with the intent of stopping aid to those organizations. Chances are very small that this will go past January 20. At the same time, Pompeo tweeted that anti-Zionism is antisemitism.

Round 4 was Pompeo changing the labeling guidelines for goods imported from the territories to say "Made in Israel." This reflects reality of Israel's rule over those areas, whether one agrees with it or not; the labeling laws were embraced by Israel-haters.

Round 5 is today's bombshell news:

In the first visit of its kind, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Saudi Arabia on Sunday, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an Israeli official told Hebrew media on Monday.

Netanyahu was on the ground in Neom, a Red Sea city, for five hours for the first known high-level meeting between an Israeli and Saudi leader. He was accompanied by Mossad intelligence chief Yossi Cohen, according to the reports.

Clearly Pompeo was behind this meeting as well, and all parties knew this would be leaked, to send a message of things changing in the Middle East (as opposed to previous secret meetings with the Saudis.)

I imagine Hen can find excuses on these three as well, saying that this is all Pompeo and not Trump, that Pompeo is preparing for a 2024 campaign for President and this is all about that. But again, ultimately this is Trump's foreign policy; Pompeo cannot do this without Trump's go-ahead. 

Is there an element of self-interest with Trump? Of course! And more so than with other presidents. Even so, everyone has multiple motives for anything that they do. Philanthropists have buildings named after them, does that negate the charity they give? Also, one would hope that US presidents would be pro-Israel because it is in America's interests, if they prioritize Israeli interests above their own nation's then they are not good leaders. Does that mean there was never a pro-Israel president?

Bottom line is that Israel is in better shape today than it was two weeks ago because of the Trump administration's recent decisions.

Plus, there is no way to look at these moves since the election without comparing them to Obama's throwing Israel under the bus when he was a lame duck in pushing the UN Security Council to pass an anti-Israel resolution. That revealed his true nature; Trump's actions (direct or indirect) since the election are a polar opposite.

I would say that in the two weeks since the election (and since the Lame Duck Test) the Trump administration did more for Israel than any President in their entire terms since Clinton, at least. 

I trust my readers can make their own determinations as to whether this test has been a success or not. 

And there are still almost two months to go.

 

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US official: Trump will continue to help Israel until the last minute

I couldn't find the original article, but Ramallah News and Ma'an quotes Israel's Kan channel in reporting that an American official says that Trump will do everything he can to help Israel until the last moment in office. (Arab media is usually accurate when quoting Israeli media.)

A US official from the administration of outgoing President Donald Trump said on Monday that the Republican president who lost the election will continue to work for Israel, until his last moments in the White House.

According to the Hebrew Kan channel, the American official, who refused to be named, stressed that Trump will continue to exploit his last moments in office, and will take advantage of the coming period for that.

He added, "We have been elected for a period of 4 years, and we intend to use the time until the last moment. We have come to work, and we have a few things that we must do with Israel, and for the benefit of Israel, and we will continue to work as well."

It is expected that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will arrive in Israel next week for a visit during which he will discuss with officials in Israel the new sanctions that the current US administration intends to impose on Tehran during the remainder of President Trump's term.

Elliott Abrams is in Israel now so...perhaps he is the source? 

Yesterday, Barak Ravid reported in Axios:

The Trump administration, in coordination with Israel and several Gulf states, is pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, two Israeli sources briefed on the effort told me.

The Trump administration’s envoy for Iran Elliott Abrams arrived in Israel on Sunday and met Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat to discuss the sanctions plan.

...Abrams said in a closed briefing several days ago that the Trump administration wants to announce a new set of sanctions on Iran every week until Jan. 20, a source who was privy to the briefing told me.

The Israeli sources told me the planned sanctions are not connected to the Iranian nuclear program — such sanctions are more likely to be canceled by a Biden administration and open the door to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

Instead, the goal is to impose sanctions on Iran that are connected to its ballistic missile program, Iranian assistance to terror organizations and Iranian human rights violations.

Which would be the smart way to do it - Biden is not as likely to cancel sanctions against ballistic missile development or terrorism. 

(I somehow doubt that Ken Roth of HRW will tweet happily about sanctions against Iranian human rights violations. Just a hunch.)

This is relevant to the Trump Lame Duck Test that I proposed on Friday.

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A simple test (for @HenMazzig) to see if Trump is really pro-Israel or just an opportunist (Update 1)

Hen Mazzig tweeted:

Trump’s ‘support’ for Israel was never a gift. He cared more about the way Christians viewed it, than the lives of American Jews, made Israel a partisan issue, and harmed public opinion towards Israel. Remember, Trump cares only about himself.

— Hen Mazzig (@HenMazzig) November 6, 2020

I disagree about Trump's view of Israel for various reasons. However, rather than argue, I propose a simple test to see if Trump's pro-Israel stance was self-serving or something he believes in.

Assuming that he has lost the election, he is a lame duck president.

If he ignores Israel in his remaining weeks in office, then that would strongly indicate that Mazzig is right.

If he works to do more things that are good for Israel, then that would strongly indicate that Trump really is pro-Israel.

This is not a perfect test. He could ignore Israel during upcoming weeks if he is fixated on overturning the election results, he could do pro-Israel things if he thinks he would run in 2024. But I think this would be a pretty good test as to Trump's commitment to Israel's security.

UPDATE 1: I think I win Round 1:

The Trump administration, in coordination with Israel and several Gulf states, is pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, two Israeli sources briefed on the effort told me.

The Trump administration’s envoy for Iran Elliott Abrams arrived in Israel on Sunday and met Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat to discuss the sanctions plan.

...Abrams said in a closed briefing several days ago that the Trump administration wants to announce a new set of sanctions on Iran every week until Jan. 20, a source who was privy to the briefing told me.

The Israeli sources told me the planned sanctions are not connected to the Iranian nuclear program — such sanctions are more likely to be canceled by a Biden administration and open the door to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

Instead, the goal is to impose sanctions on Iran that are connected to its ballistic missile program, Iranian assistance to terror organizations and Iranian human rights violations.

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