Yair Rosenberg: The War Israel Was Ready to Fight
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered the most catastrophic assault in its history when Hamas terrorists killed more than 1,000 people and took hundreds of others hostage. Almost a year later, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the most powerful militia in the world, along with the entire leadership of his organization. Last night, it did the same to the rulers of Iran, eliminating the heads of the regime’s armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and regional proxies.Natan Sharansky: We're Witnessing a Historic Test of Assumptions about Israel
How could the same country that was bested by a ragtag militia in its own backyard turn around and ravage multiple regional powers with devastating decapitation strikes? The dissonance between these events has fomented confusion and conspiracy theories. But Israel’s successes and failures in the past 20 months stem from a single source. A very specific plan to stop Iran led to both the disaster of October 7 and the triumphs since.
For decades, Iran’s theocratic leaders have called for Israel’s destruction, denying the Nazi Holocaust while urging another one. The regime funneled millions of dollars and thousands of missiles to proxies on Israel’s borders and beyond: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s authorities constructed monuments to their predicted victory, displaying missiles emblazoned with the words Death to Israel and even erecting a countdown clock to Israel’s end.
Israel, a nation born out of the ashes of an attempted Jewish genocide, took these threats seriously. Just as Iran labeled America “the Great Satan” and Israel “the Little Satan,” Israel’s security establishment conceived of its adversaries in tiers: Iran was the biggest threat, its fearsome proxy Hezbollah ranked next, and the smaller Hamas posed the least danger. The Israelis prioritized their resources accordingly. Their best people—and best exploding beepers—were put to work countering Iran and Hezbollah, which had formidable arsenals of advanced weapons. Hamas, by contrast, was treated as an afterthought, contained behind a blockade of Gaza that was maintained less by manpower than by advanced security technology.
October 7 exposed this folly, as Hamas and its allies disabled that technology and stormed across the border on land, meeting little resistance as they rampaged through civilian communities. This was a war Israel did not expect and was not prepared to fight. That fact was evident not only in the casualties and hostage-taking during the massacre, but in the grinding, brutal, and haphazard war in Gaza that has followed. Simply put, Israel was flying without radar. It did not know Hamas’s capabilities, had not infiltrated its leadership, did not have widespread intelligence sources on the ground, and was largely ignorant of the group’s sprawling underground infrastructure in Gaza. This operational ignorance has resulted in a horrific meat grinder of a war with thousands of civilian casualties and still no end in sight. It’s also why Israel’s military took more than a year after October 7 to find and kill the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
By the time that happened, Israel had already taken out Hezbollah’s Nasrallah, a far more protected and high-value target, after neutralizing many of his elite forces via exploding beepers and walkie-talkies and blowing up many of the group’s missiles while they were still in storage. The very resources that had not been brought to bear on Hamas, thus enabling the disaster of October 7, achieved the neutralization of Hezbollah within weeks.
Hezbollah had joined in the attacks on Israel after the assault on October 7, apparently believing that Israel was too hobbled to respond beyond token tit-for-tat strikes. Likewise, the group’s patrons in Iran may have misread the events of October 7 as evidence of fundamental Israeli weakness, rather than a terrible but isolated error. For months, Tehran continued to supply its proxies in Lebanon and Yemen with advanced missiles to fire at Israel, seemingly under the belief that it would be immune from similar incoming in response. That mistake, like Israel’s on October 7, proved costly.
The Israeli government has launched a targeted military assault against the Islamic Republic of Iran, striking its military facilities, nuclear sites and top military leadership. We are witnessing the historic test of the assumption that Israel cannot eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat without active U.S. involvement.Iran’s Target Isn’t Just Israel. It’s Us
As successive U.S. governments chose the path of diplomacy, Tehran inched closer and closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. And so, after decades of failed international negotiations, Israel decided to wage its battle without America's direct participation. The Jewish state's very existence hangs in the balance.
In conversations I had with Iranians over the past few months, two narratives emerged. Those closer to the government predicted that a war would rally citizens around the regime and thereby strengthen its grip. Dissidents, on the other hand, insisted that an attack limited to nuclear and military targets, and even extending to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but sparing civilians and ordinary soldiers, would help their cause by exposing and deepening the regime's fragility.
Israel has struck a blow to prevent Iran from developing nuclear bombs - weapons that it might credibly use toward its stated goal of removing Israel from the planet. This is not simply a matter of regional security. This conflict is a central front in a global contest in which the forces of tyranny and violence in recent years have been gaining ground against the forces of freedom, which too often are demoralized and divided.Jake Wallis Simons: Israel Can See what Europe Can't: the Devil
In a world full of bad actors, Iran is the most aggressive and dangerous totalitarian force of our time. Its leaders seek to weaken and destroy free society, democracy and human rights with Russian and Chinese support. In Iran, women are systematically oppressed and abused. Homosexuals are murdered. Those who think differently are imprisoned and tortured. According to official state doctrine, the primary goal of the mullahs in Tehran is the annihilation of the State of Israel. Clocks in the streets of Tehran count down to the "destruction of Israel." But Israel is only the first target. Once Israel falls, Europe and America will be the focus. Radical Sunni and Shiite Islamism has been preparing for this for decades. Their attacks are directed against our values, our way of life.
It is therefore surprising that Israel is not being celebrated worldwide for its historic, extremely precise and necessary strike against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities and for the targeted killing of leading terrorists. America and Europe, in their own interests alone, must stand united with Israel.
Ayatollah Khamenei's pet theology lusts after the apocalypse. Triggered by the obliteration of Israel, this cataclysm will supposedly herald the arrival of the "Mahdi" to lead Shia forces to global victory. These are the convictions that drive actual Iranian foreign policy. When Jerusalem was forced to act, you'd have thought the West would rally. But no. Israel was the bad guy.
We have seen this movie before. When Jerusalem destroyed Saddam Hussein's nuclear program in 1981, the world was appalled. Two decades later, the White House quietly acknowledged that the Jews had done everybody a favor.
The countries that will thrive will be those with conviction in their values and the courage and resilience to defend them. As Menachem Begin observed, "The world may not necessarily like the fighting Jew, but the world will have to take account of him." The Devil exists. It makes no sense to appease him.
