Jeffrey Goldberg: Sinwar’s March of Folly
Sinwar’s misunderstanding of Israel was, if anything, deeper than Iran’s misunderstanding of Trump. Hamas and other Palestinian groups believe that Israelis see themselves as foreign implants, and therefore can easily be brought to defeat. Sinwar’s misplaced confidence in theories of settler colonialism and Jewish perfidy undermined his strategic effectiveness. Sinwar was so convinced of his beliefs that he even sponsored a conference in 2021 called “The Promise of the Hereafter—Post-Liberation Palestine,” in which specific plans were discussed for the building of Palestine on the ruins of Israel. “Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry should be retained in Palestine for some time and should not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired while living in our land and enjoying its bounty,” one presentation read.Sharansky: ‘The Iranian regime was exposed before its people as a paper tiger’
The theme of this conference, which was held in Gaza, was an echo of a statement made by Hassan Nasrallah, then the leader of Hezbollah, who said in 2000, “This Israel, with its nuclear weapons and most advanced warplanes in the region, I swear by Allah, is actually weaker than a spider’s web … Israel may appear strong from the outside, but it’s easily destroyed and defeated.” Nasrallah was assassinated by Israel nine months ago.
I asked Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, in Jerusalem, to explain the root of this misapprehension. “The only way you can believe that Israel is Nasrallah’s spiderweb is if you believe that we don’t have substance here, that we’re not a rooted people,” he said. “The problem with Sinwar is that he believed his own propaganda. He believed that we ourselves believe that we don’t belong here. Our enemies in the Arab and Muslim worlds don’t understand that their perception of Israel and of Jews is based on a lie.”
If nothing else, the wars of the past 20 months have proved that Israel’s adversaries are not adept at analyzing political and social phenomena as they manifest in reality. Walter Russell Mead, the historian, once explained that a weakness of anti-Semites is that they have difficulty understanding the world as it actually works, and don’t comprehend cause and effect in either politics or economics. Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself saw Israel as they wished it was, not as it actually is. And in part because of this, they placed their movements in mortal danger.
For decades, former Israeli politician and Soviet refusenik Natan Sharansky has championed the cause of freedom from oppressive regimes. Dissidents across the world have found inspiration in his books and sought his advice and support.The Ayatollah’s Lifeline: Made in the West
Iranians seeking to topple the totalitarian mullahs’ regime are no different.
Soon after Israel began its strikes on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear, weapons production and military sites, Sharansky, who has been in contact with Iranian dissidents, expressed hope that the war would increase pressure on the regime from within Iran, leading to its downfall.
That hope has been reflected in statements by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the operation, though after the interview, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he favors stability over regime change.
Sharansky spoke with Jewish Insider on Tuesday about the prospects of the Iranian people rising up against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even after a shaky ceasefire had been declared between Israel and Iran.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Jewish Insider: What did this war between Israel and Iran mean for the possibility of regime change in Iran?
Natan Sharansky: It’s difficult to speak now, because we don’t know what kind of [ceasefire] agreement it is, whether it is the type with Hezbollah, the type that prevents Iran from rebuilding their ballistic missiles.
What is important is that the regime has been very weakened in the eyes of its own people.
A regime like Iran needs control not only over practical matters, it needs a way to keep its people under control, and the only control they had is through fear. The moment the level of fear goes down, or the empire looks weak, or some serious event causes people to doubt it, the regime can fall apart very quickly.
If some people cross the line of fear and go to the streets and resist, [the regime] can fall in a few days, as it did in Eastern Europe or in Tahrir Square in Egypt.
[On Monday], I thought we were very close. The fact that Israel was destroying the symbols of the regime, one after the other — the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] headquarters, the Interior Ministry that controlled people’s movement — meant the regime was being weakened in the eyes of its own people.
The nuclear plants may have been damaged or destroyed, but the regime’s nuclear ambitions are very much alive. Now, with the ceasefire announced shortly after these strikes — initially denied by both sides but rapidly taking effect — the regime has been given a chance to regroup and come back stronger.
This ceasefire paves the way to lifting sanctions. Once sanctions are lifted, the regime will have the funds to rebuild everything: its nuclear program, its terror networks, its brutal internal repression. The world has once again handed the Ayatollahs exactly what they wanted, a lifeline. Trump announcing China can now buy oil again from Iran proves exactly that.
Reports say, The exiled crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, unfollowed Netanyahu and Trump on social media. If true, he for sure feels betrayed by this ceasefire that leaves the Ayatollah in power.
Even worse, they don’t need 100 nuclear weapons; they only need one. One bomb is enough to wipe Israel off the map. And they can get it from any rogue actor willing to sell. A wounded humiliated and weak tyrant is more dangerous than a happy one. The regime was clear they won’t stop. Some countries are willing to provide them the bomb. They are selling the ceasefire to their radical jihadi followers as a win against the “empire” and the “zionist entity.”
Why do we keep betraying millions of Iranians — risking their dreams of freedom — to save a regime that jails, tortures, and executes its own people?
Why do we force Israel to stop short of victory every time it defends itself against terror? Enough.
Let the regime in Iran fall. Stop handing it lifelines. Stop romanticizing, they are a regime designed for tyranny. Stand with the people of Iran — not their jailers and oppressors.
And let Israel win. Stop interrupting wars halfway through and pretending that “both sides” just need to stop. One side seeks to live. The other seeks to destroy. The world is failing at the moral test.
The pattern is clear: when tyrants are vulnerable, the world protects them. When democracies defend themselves, they are told to stand down.
Let the regime in Iran fall.
Let Israel win its wars.
Stop saving tyrants.
Stand with the people.
The world must stop saving the Ayatollahs.
The nuclear plants may be gone — but Iran’s deadly ambition lives on.
