When Dictators Fall: Iraq (Whack-a-mole) VS Syria (Dominoes) (Daled Amos) ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Thursday, December 12, 2024

When Dictators Fall: Iraq (Whack-a-mole) VS Syria (Dominoes) (Daled Amos)

By Daled Amos

Following the defeat of Saddam Hussein and his capture during the Iraq War in 2003, there were multiple reactions. Some saw it as freedom from oppression and an opportunity for democratic government. Sunni Arabs who benefited from Hussein's rule were afraid of being marginalized and thought what others saw as liberation was more of an occupation.

Western allies celebrated the removal of a vicious dictator as a victory for democracy and human rights, but critics were concerned about potential instability.

While it was not difficult to see that Iraq's defeat resulted in the removal of Iran's premier enemy, it is not clear if anyone actually predicted the degree to which Iran would gain influence and dominate the region.

The victory over Iraq was a game of whack-a-mole: Saddam's Iraq was replaced by Iran.

Now with the removal of Bashar al-Assad, the defeat of a brutal dictator again has consequences outside of the dictator's own country. This time the consequences play out with a cascading effect:

o The Hamas massacre on October 7 led both to Israel's crippling of Hezbollah and the weakening of Iran.

o The weakening of those two entities led to the fall of Syria since they could not lend the support they had given in the past. Similarly, Russia's involvement in Ukraine hampered its ability to defend Assad

o The removal of Syria from the constellation of Iranian proxies further hurts Iran's ability to act in the region and reveals its weakness

In addition, going forward:

o Iran will have difficulty getting arms to Hezbollah.

o  Russia's naval base in Tartus and airbase at Khmeimim are in jeopardy, putting its only Mediterranean port at risk and weakening its ability to project military power in the region.

o  Turkey will increase its influence in the area and could pose a further threat to the Kurds

o  The weakening of Iran may hurt the Houthis too.

o  The fragility of Lebanon is further threatened by neighboring Syria

And then, of course, there is Israel.

A Times of Israel article on December 6 featured the headline, Syrian rebel commander urges Israel to support uprising, strike Iran-backed forces. The article quoted an anonymous rebel commander from the Free Syrian Army (FSA):

We are open to friendship with everyone in the region – including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a great deal. Now we are taking care of the rest.

The problem is that the FSA is not in charge. Instead, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadi organization, is leading the overthrow of Assad. MEMRI reported on an HTS video that is much less reassuring:

After taking control of Damascus following the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, HTS Islamist militants, in a video posted by Althawra Network Media on Facebook, declared that just as they entered the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, they will enter the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the Prophet's Mosque in Medina, and the Kaaba in Mecca. They also advised the people of Gaza to remain patient, suggesting they would soon come to Jerusalem.

This is why Israel not only fortified the buffer zone between it and Syria and extended it, but also struck chemical weapons caches and other missile and air-defense systems in Syria.

However, with such instability, there is no way to be sure what the vulnerabilities will drive the various concerned parties to do to secure their positions and react to real and perceived threats.