Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News: Pew survey

Showing posts with label Pew survey. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Jessica Tarlov and Her False Statistics About Jews and the Two-State Solution (Judean Rose)

Disclaimer: the views expressed here are solely those of the author, weekly Judean Rose columnist Varda Meyers Epstein.

Jessica Tarlov is the snotty token Democrat on the Fox News political talk show, “The Five.” The petulant downturn to her mouth is annoying, as are her righteously angry rhetoric and whiny voice. But in some ways, Tarlov’s most important quality is that she always comes armed with facts with which to debate the far more numerous conservatives weighing in on the discussion. Tarlov interprets that data from her liberal perch and bias, but at least the Democratic Party political strategist is using facts.

Or so I thought.

In a discussion regarding the anti-Israel protesters and their new nickname for Kamala Harris, “Killer Kamala,” Tarlov remarked that “The majority of American Jews, and also Israelis, favor a peaceful two-state solution.”

70% of American Jews vote for the Democrats and I believe that number will be the same come November 5th. I don’t think any of this is going to make a substantial difference, but I think Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have firmly stood with Israel. They have given all the arms Netanyahu has asked for. He has said multiple times that he thanks the administration for it.

If people think Donald Trump is going to be better for Israel, they have another think coming. Because guess what? The majority of American Jews, and also Israelis, favor a peaceful two-state solution and Donald Trump doesn’t care about that at all.

Now, I listen to The Five on my phone with half an ear as I do everything I play on Youtube to keep me company as I prepare lunch or cook for Shabbos. But when I heard that last bit about the two-state solution, my ears perked up. “That’s not true,” I said to myself, mentally making a note to check the numbers on Google.

It was conceivable to think that a majority of American Jews would be in favor of a two-state solution, but I didn’t know this absolutely. Since she was wrong about the Israelis, I thought, maybe she’s wrong about the Americans, too. Even if the majority of Israelis were in favor of a “peaceful two-state solution” whatever that means—it’s an oxymoron if I ever heard one—they sure aren’t in favor of it now, after October 7. That ship has sailed.

Gallup did a survey of Israelis between Oct. 17 and Dec. 3, in the weeks and months following October 7. What they found is that “Israelis no longer support a two-state solution”:

One in four Israeli adults currently support the existence of an independent Palestinian state, while most (65%) oppose it. This is almost a complete reversal of where they stood on the issue a decade ago, when twice as many Israeli adults supported an independent Palestinian state (61%) as opposed one (30%).

So there you have it. A majority of Israeli Jews do not want a two-state solution. And if that were true it meant that Tarlov was wrong—or at least using way outdated figures. That’s if we are to give Tarlov the benefit of the doubt and assume that she made an innocent mistake as opposed to telling an out-and-out lie. The truth is, it makes no difference. Tarlov’s recitation of false facts robs her of credibility.

Fact-checking Tarlov’s claim that the majority of American Jews favor a two-solution, brought mixed results. A March Pew Research Center survey found that 46% of Jewish Americans think a two-state solution is the best possible outcome, while 22% support a one-state option, preferring all the land to be one country under Israeli rule. 46% of anything, by definition, cannot be a majority—a plurality, yes—but not a majority. That’s an important distinction. 46% of American Jewry does not represent even half of that sector.

A May survey by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), on the other hand, does indeed find that a majority of American Jews, 60%, support a two-state solution. I consider the JCPA to be an absolutely credible organization, whose august panel of experts includes Dr. Dan Diker, Khaled Abu Toameh, and Amb. Alan Baker. The survey offers a snapshot of “the viewpoints of 511 American Jews regarding the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.”

“Conducted between May 9-11, 2024, the survey provides critical insights into the attitudes and concerns within the American Jewish community during this turbulent period. The survey has a margin of error of ±4% and includes a balanced representation by gender and age.”

Of course, the Pew survey had a sample of nearly four times that size, with 1,941 Jewish American respondents weighing in. And I really doubt that the progressive-leaning Jessica Tarlov went digging around on the ‘net, like I did, and stumbling on the JCPA survey, decided to use it as a statistic more to her liking than the one from Pew. Why the suspicion? Aside from the JCPA luminaries already mentioned above is Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s advisor on none other than . . . drumroll please. . .

Israel.

It is difficult to believe that Jessica Tarlov would cite, unless by accident, the results of a survey published by a think-tank with a Trump appointee as its senior director of Arab-Israeli diplomacy. More likely, Jessica Tarlov was thinking of the March Pew survey. In which case, we really need to wonder at the conflation of “majority” with “plurality.”

Not that anyone did at “The Five.” No one among full-time cohosts Greg Gutfeld, Dana Perino, Jesse Watters, and Jeanine Pirro said a thing in response to Tarlov’s erroneous statistics about Jews and the two-state solution. They must have figured that yet again, they, the non-Jews have been caught flatfooted, undercut by actual Jews when non-Jews try to speak up for them. They certainly wouldn’t have been splitting semantic hairs over “majority” and “plurality.”

At any rate, there wouldn’t have been a way for the cohosts to verify Tarlov’s claims on the spot, while they were live on air, even if some unseen guy were feeding them facts through some gewgaw in their ears. I, on the other hand, had the luxury of time and a laptop to actually investigate Tarlov’s wide-of-the-mark assessment of Jewish attitudes in regard to the stupidest, most unworkable concept on earth: the two-state solution.

The main thing for me, at any rate, was that I learned a lesson, or at least had one reinforced by the exercise. Don’t easily accept stats, especially when it comes to Israel and the Jews. Always question further, even when the one citing those stats seems like a serious person, even if you do disagree with them. Which was how I’d seen Tarlov until now, someone I respected, even if I disagreed with her. Now, even the respect is gone.

Tarlov may be snappy with the stats, but she isn’t being either careful or accurate, playing fast and loose with the numbers as she apparently does. In my eyes, going forward, Tarlov is forever tarnished, and by extension, so is everyone else.

I’ve lost trust.

Can you blame me?

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!

Or order from your favorite bookseller, using ISBN 9798985708424.

Read all about it here!

To Egyptians, Jews are the paradigm of dishonesty

Tharwat el-Kherbawy is an Egyptian lawyer who used to lead the Muslim Brotherhood but left the group in 2002 and became a strident critic of the Brotherhood since then.

He gave a TV interview with his analysis of the Brotherhood which was reported in major Egyptian media. He described how dishonest the Muslim Brotherhood is, and emphasized it in a way that any Egyptian would immediately identify with:

He emphasized that the Brotherhood is like the Jews; They never recognize the truth, take advantage of the social media, spread false ideas, and spread rumors.

When reaching for an example of the paradigmatic liar, and knowing that he is speaking to a national Egyptian audience, Kherbawy says that they are as bad as the Jews.

Not Zionists - Jews.

And not one Egyptian media outlet found this to be problematic. Of course, the Jews are known to be the biggest liars in the world! It is axiomatic. Why would anyone disagree?

A 2010 Pew poll found that 95% of Egyptians have an unfavorable attitude towards Jews. The ADL finds "only" 75% of Egyptians have antisemitic attitudes.

And modern anti-Zionists keep insisting that these Arabs are not antisemitic, but only anti-Zionist, and that Jews lived in peace and harmony in Arab countries before 1948.

There are definitely liars in this world - but they aren't the Jews.

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!

Or order from your favorite bookseller, using ISBN 9798985708424.

Read all about it here!

A reminder of how fully Palestinians supported Al Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden and suicide bombings on 9/11 - and long after

This video shows, for a painful 100 seconds, how happy Palestinians were upon hearing that thousands of Americans had been murdered by Al Qaeda 21 years ago today.

But Palestinian support for Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden and suicide bombings remained high even as Arab countries turned against them.

This Pew Research graphic shows that Palestinians were more enthusiastic about Al Qaeda than citizens of any Arab country, and while their support waned over the years, they continued to be the most extreme supporters of terror among Arabs in the decade following 9/11.

In 2014, the most recent poll I can find, Palestinian Arabs were most supportive among world Muslims towards suicide bombings - by far.

And even then, three years after Osama Bin Laden was killed, a huge proportion of Palestinians continued to support Al Qaeda - more than any other Muslims:

One doesn't see questions about suicide bombings and support for Bin Laden being asked by international pollsters any more, possibly because they make Palestinians look so bad. But even this year, a majority of Palestinians support "armed attacks" against Israeli civilians, and there is little reason to think that they distinguish between "martyrdom operations" and any other attacks on Jewish civilians.

Bin Laden lives on - in Palestinians.

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!

Or order from your favorite bookseller, using ISBN 9798985708424.

Read all about it here!

Witchcraft and sorcery is a big business for Palestinians

On Tuesday, Palestinian police arrested someone who was practicing sorcery and witchcraft in Yatta, south of Hebron.

This sort of thing is not unusual. At least twice, supposed sorcerers beat their clients to death while pretending to remove the demons/jinns from their bodies.

A 2012 article gives case after case of people being injured or killed by these supposed "sorcerers" in Gaza. It says that there are over a thousand of these charlatans in Gaza, who charge exorbitant amounts to exorcise jinn or otherwise pretend to cure maladies. Women have been raped by some of these "sorcerers" while the husbands, hearing the screams outside the door, believes that they are being attacked by demons.

The expose noted that these sorcerers can clear over $1500 a day, triple the average monthly wage in Gaza at the time.

It also mentioned cases of multiple young women being poisoned to death after taking some of the herbs prescribed by the charlatan. In another case, a man with foot problems from injuries during Hamas' takeover of Gaza became paralyzed from the "sorcerer" treatment, and instead of going to the police he hired people to break the holy man's legs.

In another case from 2010, 62-year-old “witch” Jabriya Abu Qinas was killed, presumably from someone she ripped off.

Doctors at Gaza hospitals confirm many deaths from this "magic," from beatings and poisonings.

For such a widespread problem, there are vanishingly few articles about it, and close to none at all in English.

A Pew survey in 2012 found that 67% of Palestinians believe in jinn (demons,) 14% in sorcery and 59% in the "evil eye."

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!

Or order from your favorite bookseller, using ISBN 9798985708424.

Read all about it here!

When the utopian vision of a one-state socialist "Palestine" crashes into Palestinian Islamism

Both Western Leftists and Palestinian Arabs agree that they would love to see a single state from the river to the sea.

Neither of them admit aloud how different their visions of such a state are.

When speaking to Western audiences, the Left - whether they are Jews like Peter Beinart or prominent Palestinian Leftists like Leila Khaled - describe a socialist utopia where Jews would ostensibly be treated equally with Arabs under the law, but the state would be strictly secular.

Palestinian Arabs, however, favor an Islamist state run by Sharia law. To them, the Palestinian Authority is too secular already.

The last time Pew did a survey of Muslims worldwide, it found that 89% of Palestinians would want Islamic law - Sharia - to be the law of the land. This was the third highest in the world, behind only Afghanistan and Iraq.

A vast majority of Palestinians would like to see corporal punishment for crimes like theft and stoning as a punishment for adultery. A majority would like their state to give the death penalty for those who leave Islam. Most Palestinians say that it is a bad thing that their current laws do not adhere closely to sharia law.

There is nothing in common between these two views of what a single Palestine would be. The majority of Palestinians have no interest in the secular paradise that you see described in the pages of Open Democracy and The Guardian and Jacobin. Most Palestinians say that their end goal is not one state with equal rights for Jews but one Palestinian state from the river to the sea where Jews are, at best, tolerated second class citizens - and many openly advocate for deporting any Zionist from the country altogether.

Polls show that a mere 10% of Palestinians want a state with equal rights between Jews and Muslims. The latest political polls show that socialist parties like the PFLP and DFLP would only get 2% of the vote in any election held now.

Palestinians hate socialism. They prefer Islamism.

Palestinians do not want equal rights for Arabs and Jews. They want an Islamic state.

Everything written about a one-state solution in the pages of the Washington Post and the New York Times is fiction. The Western Leftists will trot out people with Arabic-sounding names who write passionately about a single state with equal rights for all as if they represent Palestinian public opinion.

Only rarely does the Left admit that the idea of equal rights for Jews in a majority Arab state is problematic. Edward Said, the intellectual father of the one state idea, admitted in 2000 that he couldn't see how Jews would be treated equally in his solution. "It worries me a great deal. The question of what is going to be the fate of the Jews is very difficult for me. I really don't know."

The socialist fantasy and Palestinian reality cannot co-exist. A single state would become a nightmare for Jews. Everyone knows it.

Which goes to prove that the Leftists who make their one-state argument in the West - and who do not make the same argument in Arabic-language media - are only paying lip service to equal rights for Jews. They want to see Israel destroyed, and they are willing to partner with their Islamist ideological opponents to make that happen. They paper over their differences and hoping that no one notices that they are supporting a Muslim ethnostate where Jews are tolerated if they behave like good dhimmits and persecuted if they demand their own rights.

There is only one reason the socialist Left and the Palestinian Right support each other: their shared antisemitism.

How to - and how not to - fight antisemitism

This week there were two news stories that do not bode well for the American Jewish community.

The first was the sparsely attended "No Fear" rally against antisemitism in Washington. The second was the release of a survey showing that many American Jews believe that Israel is guilty of apartheid and even genocide.

Both of these events point to a catastrophic failure of the American Jewish community.

Lauri Regan, an experienced organizer, writes a scathing critique of the No Fear rally. While many of its problems were technical, the main reason it was so small was ironically because it wanted to include as many Jews as possible.

To be successful you need a focused message and a theme people can get behind. You need to attract a core of enthusiastic participants. But the organizers were more interested in signing up liberal Jewish organizations who are either apathetic or hostile to the Jewish state and who had demanded that the rally must not be overtly Zionist - organizations who deny the existence of antisemitism from their political allies on the Left.

If the organizations attending cannot even agree on the definition of antisemitism, the event is a failure before it even starts.

What does "No Fear" even mean? It is an empty slogan. Jews are being viciously attacked in the streets and online, and a kumbaya slogan does not blunt these attacks one bit.

When you water down the message to not offend anyone, you end up with a message that attracts no one.

The real reason the rally failed is seen in the Jewish Electorate Institute poll. Together with other polls of American Jews, it shows a community that has decreasing emotional ties to Israel - and few ties to Judaism. Young Jews show the direction that the community is going - less attachment to Israel, and less attachment to Judaism.

This graphic from Pew should frighten anyone who cares about the future of American Jewry:

Nearly half of US Jews have no interest in engaging in any Jewish activities or showing any link to Judaism altogether.

Their apathy about Judaism and about Israel are linked.

More committed Jews tend to be more committed to Israel. Antisemites hate Israel. American Jews who are conflicted about their Judaism as similarly conflicted about Israel. Denying the links between Judaism and Israel today is denying reality.

The solution for both is the same: knowledge and pride.

Most American Jews don't know the first thing about Judaism, and they don't know the first thing about Israel. Similarly, most American Jews have little sense of pride in either their Judaism or in Israel.

This is the root of the failure of the American Jewish community. It is a failure of the leaders, it is a failure of the synagogues, but even more it is a failure of the parents who have the primary responsibility of instilling pride in their children.

It took generations to bring us to where we are today. It is the product of decades of caring more about succeeding in America than in instilling Jewish pride in their children.

If Jews can't get our own act together, how can we expect non-Jews to support us?

Sadly, many of these Jews are already lost. And for too many of them, the only time they invoke their Judaism is to pretend to be heroic in their anti-Zionism.

But it is not too late for American Jewry altogether.

There are some great new groups that aim to educate and instill pride in Judaism, Israel or both. It in not necessary to be Orthodox to be a committed, knowledgeable Jew, and it is not necessary to support settlements to be a proud, enthusiastic Zionist (look at Hen Mazzig or Einat Wilf.)

Just as it took time to get to where we are today, it will take a long time to rebuild Jewish literacy and Jewish pride. It takes real commitment. It starts with your own family.

When Jews know our own history, we are equipped to defend themselves against the lies. When Jews have pride, though, we gain fans.

People are attracted to those who know who they are and who are unapologetic about it. Sure, Jews need to know enough to counter the lies, but that is only a small part of the job. We need to be proud of our Judaism and of Israel. We shouldn't be defensive - we should be enthusiastic. We should treat Jews in America and Israel as our family, whom we love and support even if they drive us crazy sometimes.

This is how to fight antisemitism. And it is critical to raise the next generation to know who we are: that we are Jews, we are proud, we are one people, and we are not going anywhere.

Marc Shneier's blind spot on Muslim condemnations of terror (update)

Writing in The Washington Post, Rabbi Marc Schneier says:

Why don’t Muslim leaders speak out?

That question comes up every time terrorists purporting to be deeply religious Muslims carry out armed attacks that kill innocent people. Where, commentators ask, are the moderate Muslim leaders and why aren’t they decrying the horrors perpetuated by fellow Muslims?

In fact, mainstream Muslims are speaking out, clearly and consistently. Leaders around the world, many of whom I know personally through my work at the Foundation for Ethnic Understanding, have issued strong and unambiguous statements virtually every time a violent attack has occurred, condemning such acts as immoral and counter to the fundamental precepts of Islam.

Yet somehow their responses are not being heard, barely registering in the public consciousness.

He gives examples of widespread condemnations by Muslim leaders, for example of the hostage taking in Australia and the massacre in Peshawar.

Schneier even says that Muslim leaders are condemning European antisemitism:

For example, after riots by a predominantly Muslim crowd in the Paris suburb of Sarcelles attacked a synagogue and Jewish businesses, the local Muslim Association sent a letter of solidarity and support to the vice president of the synagogue. National Muslim leaders took part in an interfaith ceremony that denounced the violence and called for reconciliation. French Council of the Muslim Faith head Dalil Boubakeur, who attended the ceremony, affirmed that the vast majority of French Muslims are not anti-Semitic. How could they be, he asked, when they themselves are battling racism?

To praise Muslim leaders for condemning a massacre of 130 children is faint praise indeed.

There is no political cost for a Muslim to denounce a massacre of children. There is no political cost for a Muslim leader outside ISIS-controlled areas to denounce ISIS. There is little downside for Western Muslim leaders to send letters of solidarity to Jewish victims of terror.

The question is how many Muslim leaders are willing to denounce Islamic-inspired terror, publicly and to their own confregations, when there is a political cost.

Some do. A wonderful example is Sheikh Samir Aasi, Imam of the main mosque in Akko (Acre), whose condemnation of the Har Nof synagogue attack resulted in one of his flock attacking his car with acid.

However, the emphasis on condemnations misses the point.

The fact is that the percentage of Muslims who support terror is not tiny. A significant number of Muslims in Muslim-majority countries think that suicide terrorism is sometimes or often justified.

This adds up to hundreds of millions of Muslims who justify terrorism.

When Westerners want to see Muslims condemn terror, it isn't "Islamophobic" as Max Fisher claims. They aren't demanding a mea culpa to Western audiences to demean Muslims. The desire to see Muslim leaders condemning terror is a response to the disconnect between how Muslims portray themselves to the West as being against extremism and the fact that hundreds of millions of Muslims don't have a big problem with terrorism.

The point isn't soliciting condemnations. The point is the solve the problem of Islamic terror.

The question that needs answering is how can so many Muslims openly admit extreme positions worldwide without fear of being shamed by their own Muslim leadership.

If terrorism was as widely and thoroughly condemned in Islam as Rabbi Schneieir claims, then the Pew poll would show low single-digit numbers for each country's citizens supporting terror. The relatively high numbers indicate that there is a serious disconnect between what we are being told and the reality. Schneier is adding to that disconnect.

No one cares about the condemnations per se; what the world cares about is that the terror stops. Since the vast majority of terror attacks (and, now, antisemitism) are done in the name of Islam, it is reasonable to expect Muslim leaders to be in the forefront of fighting terrorism - not just condemning it but addressing it within their own communities and mosques, finding our root causes of how extremism makes it into their own communities and coming up with Islamic-centered solutions that can both convince the youth that terror is not acceptable and that can effectively defeat the ideological roots of Islamic terror.

If moderate Islam is the choice of the vast majority of Muslims, then that majority does have the responsibility to fix the problem with their extremist Muslim brothers. Condemnations are only a small, visible component of what needs to be a major, soul-searching effort.

That is what the world is not seeing.

I don't doubt that most Muslim leaders detest ISIS. But the fact is that ISIS emerged from their own belief system. And extremist ideologies like that of ISIS is offering something compelling for young people to want to join it. Perhaps it is the perception that extremism is aligned with piety, perhaps it is from years of being indoctrinated with the idea that Muslims are under attack and it is time for them to take revenge, perhaps something else. But this is not a problem that can be solved by non-Muslims. The responsibility lies with Muslim leaders, both in the first and third worlds. and like it or not, the rest of the world is not seeing the excruciating soul-searching and strategy that is a necessary component of solving this problem that is clearly in the heart of the Islamic world today, not peripheral to it.

(h/t EBoZ)

UPDATE: After I wrote this, I saw his article showing that Egypt's president gets it:

In a speech on New Year’s day, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for a “religious revolution” in Islam that would displace violent jihad from the center of Muslim discourse.

“Is it possible that 1.6 billion people (Muslims worldwide) should want to kill the rest of the world’s population—that is, 7 billion people—so that they themselves may live?” he asked. “Impossible.”

Speaking to an audience of religious scholars celebrating the birth of Islam’s prophet, Mohammed, he called on the religious establishment to lead the fight for moderation in the Muslim world. “You imams (prayer leaders) are responsible before Allah. The entire world—I say it again, the entire world—is waiting for your next move because this umma (a word that can refer either to the Egyptian nation or the entire Muslim world) is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost—and it is being lost by our own hands.”

He was speaking in Al-Azhar University in Cairo, widely regarded as the leading world center for Islamic learning.

“The corpus of texts and ideas that we have made sacred over the years, to the point that departing from them has become almost impossible, is antagonizing the entire world. You cannot feel it if you remain trapped within this mindset. You must step outside yourselves and reflect on it from a more enlightened perspective.”