Of course Houthi attacks from Yemen can be deterred. You just need to understand the psychology. ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Of course Houthi attacks from Yemen can be deterred. You just need to understand the psychology.

As Israel struck back against Houthi infrastructure today, YNet's Smadar Perry writes:

You can't make the Houthis back down, they are not afraid
Iran will continue to supply its Yemeni proxy with arms and directives to attack Israel until a cease-fire is reached in Gaza

So far, Israeli strikes on Houthi military bases and targets in Yemen have not inflicted significant defeats on their leadership. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree, in their bizarre, pompous appearances, continue to issue direct threats against the U.S., the UK and especially Israel.

Until a full cease-fire is achieved in Gaza, Iran is expected to keep supplying the Houthis not only with weapons and military equipment but also with directives to persist in their attacks on Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week vowed that the Houthis would pay a heavy price for their attacks. Katz went even further with his threats. Yet Al-Houthi doesn’t seem fazed.

The Houthis, as their statements imply, are preparing, recruiting and stay undeterred. Elizabeth Kendall, a leading American expert on Yemen, summed up the situation succinctly: "The biggest dilemma is that it looks impossible to influence the Houthis without military pressure, but it’s hard to see how military pressure can work.”

It is true that long distance Israeli strikes is unlikely to deter the Houthis. They are dedicated jihadists, dedicated antisemites and don't care about their own people but would happily use their suffering to get the world to condemn Israel for any attacks that kill civilians. After all, the Hamas playbook was fond to work quite well.

Worse, they know that they have relatively inexpensive weapons that can reach Israel and defending Israel from them is very expensive.

There are only two ways to deter the Houthis, and they follow the same playbook that worked against Hamas and Hezbollah: Attack their leaders and stop the supply of weapons from Iran.

Attacking the leaders from a distance is a Herculean task. Israel had years of intelligence to lean on when they chose that strategy against Hamas and Hezbollah; it would take time to build the same capacity in Yemen, although you can bet that Israel is working on it. Israel doesn't have years to build that intelligence infrastructure.

Which is why the deterrence must be not against the Houthis but against Iran itself.

Unlike their proxies, Iran has a lot to lose. The reason Iran has been distancing themselves from their proxies is because they don't want to be held responsible for their actions against Israel - in short, they are frightened of an Israeli attack that would cripple Iran's oil exports, the keystone to their economy.

The Houthis can shoot rockets and drones all day as long as Iran supplies them for free. Which is why Iran's economy must be attacked, not Yemen (except for specific strategic targets.)

Anyone could have foreseen that the Houthis would increase their attacks when Israel struck them. Honor/shame demands that. In fact, in some ways Israel's attacks on the Houthis increase their prestige because there is only so much Israel can do; it makes the Houthis look stronger.

But if Iran would tell them to stop attacking, and if Israel (possibly together with the US and European allies) blocks off the path of weapons exports from Iran to Yemen with either threats or with military action against their ports and airports, the Houthi calculus would change. They can act as belligerent as they want but they don't want to run out of arms.

As I've said before, Israel needs to make it publicly clear that it holds Iran responsible for every Houthi rocket and drone attacking Israel, and Iran will pay the price. And Israel must follow through.

That is how to deter the Houthi threat.