Friday, September 27, 2024

09/27 Links Pt1: Schrodinger’s Nasrallah: 'Cautious Optimism' in Israel That Beirut Strike Eliminated Hezbollah Head Hassan Nasrallah

From Ian:

'Cautious Optimism' in Israel That Beirut Strike Eliminated Hezbollah Head Hassan Nasrallah
Preliminary reports in Israel suggest Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated Friday in an Israeli airstrike that destroyed the terror group’s central headquarters in downtown Beirut, a game-changing operation that comes as a significant blow to Iran and its proxies.

Reports across Israeli media say that Nasrallah was one of many killed in a pinpoint strike on Hezbollah’s stronghold. The strike also reportedly took out the terror group's "number two" commander and is believed to have killed many other senior Hezbollah operatives.

"The assessment in Israel: Nasrallah is eliminated," stated a Hebrew-language headline on Israel’s Channel 12 news station. A second outlet said there is "cautious optimism in Israel: The strike on Nasrallah succeeded," according to the Times of Israel.

The reports are bolstered by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s abrupt decision to leave New York City early, just hours after he addressed the United Nations General Assembly. Nasrallah’s death would mark a sea change for Lebanon and the larger Middle East, which has been plagued by the Iran-backed terror group for decades.

It is also likely to infuriate Tehran’s hardline regime, which has long treated Hezbollah as its crowning terror proxy. In the wake of the strike, Iran's embassy in Beirut said it "represents a dangerous escalation that changes the rules of the game."

Regional analysts described the possibility of Nasrallah’s death as a "strategic game-changer for Tehran." Former White House National Security Council member Richard Goldberg noted that Nasrallah "took over" for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, becoming senior strategist for Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

"Nasrallah had operational control of Lebanon and Syria," wrote Goldberg. "This is not just a strategic game-changer for Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria, it's a strategic game-changer for Tehran."

Jonathan Schanzer, a Middle East expert at the Foundation For Defense of Democracies, said that in addition to Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s "key leadership structure" and some Iranian officials may have been eradicated in Friday’s strike.

Netanyahu, in his earlier remarks before the U.N., vowed to confront Iran if it attacks the Jewish state.

"I have a message for the tyrants of Tehran," Netanyahu said. "If you strike us, we will strike you."
Did Israel succeed in eliminating its number one enemy?
The fate of Hassan Nasrallah, Israel's top target in recent years, is still unclear. The fact that Israel struck Hezbollah's central headquarters while Nasrallah was there is a dramatic development.

First and foremost, Israel is making it clear that Nasrallah is marked for death. Second, it demonstrates Israel's intelligence capabilities and resolve. Third, Israel shows that it has no red lines in its battle against Hezbollah—every figure and every place where Hezbollah operates will be targeted decisively.

The strike was carried out by the Israeli air force’s 119th “Bat” Squadron, using an F-16i aircraft known as “Sufa” (Storm) in the IAF. The planes dropped tons of munitions. Israel conducted the bombing while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in New York, on American soil.

Hassan Nasrallah, at 64, has been Hezbollah’s leader for four decades and is one of Israel’s most challenging adversaries in recent decades. He is closely aligned with Iran, and although he didn’t find Hezbollah, he has shaped the organization in his image.

Nasrallah began his journey in the organization during his school years in the city of Tyre. He frequented the main mosque, drawing the attention of preacher Muhammad al-Gharawi, who was impressed by Nasrallah’s intelligence and interest in theological studies.

Al-Gharawi recommended him to Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, a leading figure in the Shiite seminaries in Najaf, Iraq. After completing high school about a year later, Nasrallah moved to Najaf to start his studies.
Matthew Continetti: America Must Side With Israel Against Hezbollah
For 17 years, Hezbollah restocked its arsenal of rockets and ballistic missiles, waiting for orders from the terror masters in Tehran. The green light arrived on Oct. 7. Now, rather than a security buffer in Lebanon, there is one in Israel—a ghost zone of abandoned communities and uprooted lives.

The situation is intolerable. No nation would stand for it. No democracy would countenance it. That Israelis have put up with such disruption for so long is a reminder of their fortitude and clarity of purpose. Destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages came first. Hezbollah could wait.

But the wait is over. Hamas is devastated. The Egypt-Gaza border is secure. The IDF has control of the Gaza Strip above ground, as its forces methodically explore and collapse Hamas's tunnel network below. The search for the remaining hostages goes on. Hamas won't free them. They must be rescued. It's slow, tough, grueling work under extraordinary conditions and relentless pressure. Work that requires fewer resources than before.

Which allows Israel to turn to Hezbollah. Last week's remarkable device attack wreaked havoc on the militia's operatives and communications. Sophisticated airstrikes took out the leadership of Hezbollah's special forces and damaged its weapon stockpiles.

Preparations for a ground incursion have begun. No one wants it to happen. But it might have to. If Hezbollah doesn't stand down, there is no other way to diminish the threat. No other way to make good on the promise of Israel to provide security for the Jewish people.

Diplomacy hasn't worked. Biden's joint statement reads as if negotiations haven't been tried. On the contrary: U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein has been traversing the region for months. He's been as ineffective as Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the quest for a Gaza truce. It's not Israel that has made Hochstein and Blinken look like fools. It's the terrorist psychopaths they treat as good-faith interlocutors who won't take yes for an answer.

In Hezbollah's case, a deal has been on the table since 2006. Move your forces back. Stop trying to kill Israelis. Peace is elusive because Hezbollah's not interested. Hezbollah doesn't exist to make friends. It exists to destroy Israel and America. It's an Iranian asset in a strategic location meant to deter Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear program. Lebanon's central government is either uninterested or incapable of challenging Syria and Iran. And the U.N. is worse than useless.

Israelis understand. Prime Minister Netanyahu has seen support for his party rise since Israel began taking the fight to its enemies in unorthodox ways. The division over hostage negotiations with Hamas is absent in conversations about the north. Hezbollah prevents Israelis from living in safety. It must be stopped.

Rather than building sandcastles with his friends in the U.N., President Biden could try applying to our besieged ally in the Middle East the same rhetorical and material support he bestows on Ukraine. But that is not the president we have. Biden's policy of escalation management has produced expanding circles of ruin from Kiev to the Gulf of Aden. His Defense Department's statement that it's not providing intelligence to Israel in Lebanon is disgraceful. Israel would be right to ignore him—and to do what's necessary to restore balance to the region and Israelis to their homes.


Bibi Puts Tehran on Notice in Fiery UN Speech: ‘There is No Place in Iran That the Long Arm of Israel Cannot Reach’
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tehran that there "is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach," delivering a fiery speech before the United Nations General Assembly as the Jewish state prepares for a ground invasion in Lebanon.

"I have a message for the tyrants of Tehran," he said. "If you strike us, we will strike you."

Netanyahu’s speech came as world leaders, including the United States, gathered at the U.N. and attempted to impose an emergency ceasefire on Israel and Hezbollah, which have been locked in the most intense fighting since the 2006 Lebanon war. As Israel capped more than a week of intensive airstrikes on Hezbollah strongholds across Lebanon, Netanyahu said his country will not back down from the fight and will keep striking Hezbollah "until we meet our objectives."

At one point, Netanyahu, holding two maps, urged attending world leaders to choose between a "blessing" and a "curse." The "blessing" map depicted a bridge between Israel and Europe through the Middle East, while the "curse" highlighted Iran and its allies, Iraq and Syria.

"Which of these two maps that I showed you will shape our future?" he asked. "Will it be the blessings of peace and prosperity for Israel, our Arab partners, and the rest of the world? Or will it be the curse in which Iran and its proxies spread carnage and chaos everywhere?"

"And that is the choice we face today."

Netanyahu also had choice words for the U.N., blasting it as a "swamp of anti-Semitic bile" and a "house of darkness." Some attendees protested his speech, walking out of the general assembly as Netanyahu began talking.



Netanyahu took the stage at Turtle Bay just hours after Israeli forces bombed more Hezbollah sites, with Lebanon reporting "25 martyrs." In New York City, Netanyahu said Israel has "no choice" but to continue its defensive war against Hezbollah, which has been raining missiles and drones across northern and central Israel for nearly a year.

"As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely," he said. "And that’s exactly what we’re doing."
H.R. McMaster describes negotiations with Iran, proxies as ‘delusional’
McMaster brushed off the notion that the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian — or indeed anyone in the Iranian government — would be a “reformist,” describing that as a “deliberate Iranian narrative” that aims to push U.S. and international leaders to take a permissive posture toward Iran to avoid empowering supposedly more hard-line forces in the Iranian government.

“It’s all B.S. It’s complete B.S.,” McMaster said. “The revolutionaries won. They’re in charge. It’s the supreme leader and the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]. Pezeshkian is not a reformist… How many times do you have to be duped? It’s like Wile E. Coyote. Figure it out, man, the ACME rocket-propelled roller skates might not work.”

Regarding the war in Gaza, McMaster argued that “the destruction of Hamas is a precondition for getting back on a path to any kind of enduring peace between Israel and the Palestinians, or any kind of two-state solution you can imagine.”

As such, McMaster continued, “there’s a fundamental inconsistency in calling for cease-fires and then saying you’re for a two-state solution,” specifically criticizing President Joe Biden’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly. “It doesn’t make any sense to me.”

In order to ensure the lasting defeat of Hamas and that prospect for peace, McMaster said it will be necessary to have a viable “peace enforcement force” operating in Gaza. He said he does not think the IDF can credibly perform that role, which will require developing relationships with the Gazan population to develop intelligence sources.

He proposed a multinational force made up primarily of the Egyptian military, with assistance from Emirati special operations forces, some forces from Jordan and potentially other countries such as Uganda.

“It doesn’t matter as long as they are seen as pro-Palestinian population and they can earn the respect and legitimacy… by the population to give space or an alternative political order to emerge,” McMaster said.

McMaster said the U.S. will need to use “all of its persuasive power, its incentives and disincentives” to convince actors to step up and fill the vacuum. And McMaster said that large-scale rebuilding support should not begin until Hamas is removed from power.

He described the Trump administration’s two-state proposal as “in retrospect… laudable” but “of course, wasn’t going to work.”

The former national security advisor also said he believes that there has been deeper coordination between Iran and Russia than publicly known “on helping them deal with the blowback, the aftermath” of the Oct. 7 attacks.

He said that Russia has actively misled Israel about its posture while siding with adversaries including Syria’s Assad regime and Hamas — something he said he warned Israeli leaders about during his time in office.

Looking at the global threat landscape, McMaster said he agrees with the assessment of the nonpartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy, which outlined in a recent report that the U.S. faces a serious risk of a multifront war in the coming years, given the increasing cooperation among key adversaries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

He said the U.S. needs to make larger investments in military modernization and buildup to properly counter and address that threat.


Feds Charge 3 Iranian Military Members for Hacking Trump Campaign in ‘Wide-Ranging’ Cyber Scheme
U.S. federal prosecutors charged three members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for targeting Republican nominee Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in a "wide-ranging" hacking scheme, according to an indictment unsealed Friday.

The three hackers—Masoud Jalili, Seyyed Ali Aghamiri, and Yasar Balaghi—are charged with 18 counts, including "wire fraud, identity theft, conspiracy to provide material support to a terrorist organization, and hacking conspiracy," CBS News reported.

Jalili, Aghamiri, and Balaghi conducted a "wide-ranging hacking campaign that used spearphishing and social engineering techniques to target and compromise the accounts of current and former U.S. government officials, members of the media, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals associated with U.S. political campaigns," the prosecutors said.

While Iranian officials last week "categorically repudiate[d]" the allegations, claiming that the Islamic Republic "neither has any motive nor intent to interfere in the U.S. election," Trump’s campaign revealed last month that Iranian hackers had breached its internal systems and shared sensitive documents with reporters.

The charges come as U.S. intelligence officials increasingly warn of agents from foreign adversaries, including Iran, Russia, and China, ramping up efforts to disrupt the upcoming presidential election.

"Iranian malicious cyber actors have continued their efforts since June to send stolen, non-public material associated with former president Trump's campaign to U.S. media organizations," federal officials said in a statement last week.


‘A Joke': Bibi Adviser Scoffs at Biden Ceasefire Proposal and Lays Out What Would Prevent All-Out War in Lebanon
Israel on Thursday rejected a proposal, led by the Biden-Harris administration and France, for a ceasefire with the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah.

Upon landing in New York City to address the U.N. General Assembly, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military would keep hitting Hezbollah with "full force, and we will not stop until we achieve all our goals, first and foremost returning the residents of the north safely to their homes."

In an interview with the Washington Free Beacon, Amir Avivi, an Israeli reserve brigadier general who has advised Netanyahu throughout the war, pushed back on the White House’s claims that the prime minister had agreed to the ceasefire before it was announced. Avivi said Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have long agreed that any ceasefire with Hezbollah must involve the Lebanese group’s withdrawal from Israel’s northern border, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the previous Lebanon war in 2006. Amir Avivi (IDSF)

As recently as Wednesday, Israeli media reported that Israeli officials saw "no feasibility for a settlement right now" and that Netanyahu told ministers in a security consultation that "any negotiations will only be held under fire."

Anyway, Avivi said of the proposal: "It’s stupid. It's irrelevant. It's a joke."

Israel’s stunning bombing campaign in Lebanon over the past week has left Hezbollah fearing for its survival. For the first time since Hezbollah began bombarding northern Israel with rockets and missiles on a daily basis nearly a year ago, the group’s leaders appear to be considering meeting Israel’s demand for a withdrawal.

"We shocked the enemy, and they want us to stop fighting for 21 days—for what, to let the enemy regroup?" he said. "What kind of idea is this?"

Avivi, the head of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish military reservists, has been at the forefront of Israeli strategic thinking. In his book No Retreat, which was published in English earlier this month and in Hebrew several months before Hamas’s Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel, he warned that the Iran-backed Palestinian terror group was not deterred and called for Israel to conquer Gaza.


Caroline Glick: The Truth Behind Calls for a Ceasefire
After 11 months of ignoring Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon, Western leaders on Wednesday urgently called for the Israel Defense Forces to stop short of absolute victory against the Iranian-backed terror group.

Join JNS senior contributing editor Caroline Glick for this episode of "In-Focus" in which she takes a closer look at the most recent events in the war and the insanity of today’s calls for a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Learn exactly what led up to the most recent escalation and how Israelis are reacting to the Biden administration’s demands to allow Hezbollah terrorists to regroup after suffering defeat after crushing defeat.

Chapters
0:00 Israel-Hezbollah background
5:00 Chronic capitulation
10:00 The current war begins - Oct. 7
15:00 Israel fights back
20:00 Biden admin support…of Hezbollah
25:00 Today’s calls for ceasefire
44:00 Understanding what they’re doing




Israel has decimated Hezbollah leadership but terror group hasn’t gone ‘all in’ yet with its weapons



IDF downs ballistic missile fired from Yemen at central Israel
Israel’s “Arrow” defense system intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile fired at the Jewish state from Yemen, the Israel Defense Forces stated early on Friday morning.

The missile was downed “outside [Israel’s] borders,” according to the military.

“Sirens and explosions were heard following the interception and falling shrapnel,” the IDF said. Some 15 minutes earlier, the IDF stated that “millions of Israelis are running to shelter as sirens sound across all of central Israel.”

The IDF Home Front Command said there was no change in directives for residents of the country’s center.

On Sept. 15, Israeli air defenses intercepted fragments of a surface-to-surface missile launched from Yemen that exploded over central Israel.

In July, a Houthi drone killed a man in Tel Aviv, in response to which Israel struck Yemen’s Hodeidah port. The Iranian terror proxy has launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023.

On Wednesday, the IDF intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile fired by Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon at central Israel. Hezbollah claimed that the attack targeted the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency.


Commentary Podcast: Terrorism Fans on New York Streets
What does it mean that hundreds took over the streets around Grand Central Terminal celebrating Hamas and Hezbollah before others went up Park Avenue to the hotel where Benjamin Netanyahu is staying and started chanting, "We're going to get you"? What does it mean that Kamala Harris is going to the border? What does it mean that Eric Adams wanted airline upgrades so much he might have sold himself to the government of Turkey?




The Israel Guys: It Would Be CRAZY For Israel to Give In | This is Good vs Evil
Let me ask you a question. If an enemy nation fired a ballistic missile at Washington DC, how would the United States react? Let’s just say they decide to immediately defend themselves, but they don’t obliterate said enemy, but instead, begin taking out the bad guys one by one. Three days later, that same enemy sponsors another enemy country to fire another ballistic missile at Washington DC. What now?

Is the White House going to hold back on eradicating these enemies? Will the world then begin marching in the streets, publicly supporting America’s enemies? Will the pope, leaders all across the free world, and even the United Nations call for the United States to show restraint, and ultimately, agree to a ceasefire?

How is a ceasefire even in this equation?

Of course, as ridiculous as this situation and these questions sound, it is exactly what has been happening in Israel this week. And unfortunately, the world as usual, is turned upside down, calling good evil and evil good. Let’s get into the details.


"I Dispute EVERYTHING Israel Says" Piers Morgan vs Mehdi Hasan
Mehdi Hasan, a veteran journalist and regular contributor to Piers Morgan Uncensored, is known throughout the global media landscape for his scathing takedowns and rapid unrelenting debate style. While it’s easy to see why Piers respects the man, what’s surprising is that the two titans of talking have never met before in person. Until now...

Piers invites Mehdi onto Uncensored for a lengthy debate on the conflict in the Middle East and how Israel should respond to the attacks by Hezbollah. They also lock horns on the dispute between Israel and Palestine, disagreeing on who is worsening the cycle of violence. They then move onto the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the consequences of an election win for Donald Trump, or Kamala Harris. Viewers are advised to strap in, and try to keep up.

00:00 - Introduction
01:32 - Distinction between Hamas and Hezbollah
03:19 - Is Israel using October 7 as an ‘excuse’?
08:24 - 'You downplay anything which Israel says is provocation'
10:25 - Was the pager attack justified?
14:04 - Is there any military response from Israel that would be justified?
24:23 - Do all roads lead back to Iran?
26:32 - Does Israel have the right to do this?
29:35 - 'Are you blindly anti-Israel?'
30:20 - Nuclear weapons in Russia and Israel
33:17 - 'Do you believe in a two-state solution?'
34:35 - The raid on Al Jazeera offices in Ramallah
35:35 - Who would be a better President for resolving the Middle East crisis?
36:34 - Political rhetoric and Trump's assassination attempts
44:46 - Southern border and illegal immigration
46:37 - Trump’s comments about Springfield


travelingisrael.com: Bassem Youssef – The Lies Behind the Blue Eyes (Part One)
Bassem Youssef – The Lies Behind the Blue Eyes (Part One)

0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Bassem's family in Gaza
2:34 - Egypt is an extreme Muslim country
4:21 - Bassem's personal story
6:20 - Israeli Arabs
13:25 - No Hamas in the West Bank
15:40 - Number of Arabs in Gaza
16:50 - Crazy Christians & Jews




Anti-Israel protesters menacingly chant ‘We’re gonna get you’ outside Netanyahu’s NYC hotel
Anti-Israel protesters menacingly chanted “We’re gonna get you” outside of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Big Apple hotel Thursday night, a day before he’s expected to speak at the United Nations.

The rowdy demonstrators swarmed the outside of the Loews Regency New York Hotel on Park Ave. and E. 62nd St. where they said Netanyahu is staying, according to images and social media videos.

“Netanyahu,” the hundreds of protesters repeatedly shouted, according to footage posted by anti-Israel group Within Our Lifetime.

“We’re gonna get you.”

The prime minister arrived in town Thursday ahead of his address in front of the UN’s General Assembly as Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, sparked by the Oct. 7 terror attack, approaches the one-year mark.

More than two dozen people were taken into custody in Manhattan on Thursday morning during a protest against Netanyahu’s visit to the city.

Thursday night’s protest began near Grand Central Station before the demonstrators moved north approaching the Metropolitan Museum of Art.

There, authorities guarded the front steps of the institution with their bikes.

Police and a handful of protesters clashed, including one person who was put into handcuffs during the showdown, according to footage taken by The Post.

The anti-Israel rabble rousers and police again clashed as the protest moved toward the Upper East Side hotel.




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