Sunday, September 29, 2024
Elder of Ziyon
At the same time, Iran (and Hezbollah) have been pushing the narrative that they are strong, with huge arsenals and dedicated fighters, and just itching to get into a war with Israel if Israel is so foolish as to start one.
That had been the story they have repeated for decades. And, as with so much other anti-Israel propaganda, it was all a lie.
And as with the other anti-Israel lies, much of the world bought it.
Israel has done a lot of innovative things during this conflict, but one of the most significant did not involve high tech or brilliant strategy or intelligence: Israel simply called their bluff.
And the Axis of Resistance came up empty.
Hezbollah bet that Israel would not escalate the war of attrition they have had for ten months, and lost that bet. Now it is largely in disarray and as long as Israel keeps up the pressure it will have a hard time rebuilding its damaged infrastructure.
Iran bet on Hezbollah being able to degrade Israel's will to fight and move it towards a ceasefire in Gaza, preserving Hamas as a critical member of the Axis. It certainly didn't think Israel might make Lebanon the major focus of the fighting.
Iran's strategy has been based on its proxies, because it is the frightened party. Israel is doing militarily what the West couldn't do in Lebanon - blocking all Iranian arms imports to Hezbollah. And it can do militarily (including cyberwar) to Iran what the West has not been able to enforce - severely blocking all Iranian imports and exports, crippling its economy in weeks, if it wants to.
This is not to say the war is won. Far from it. Iran still has proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen who are willing to send missiles and drones to Israel. They are dangerous but the threat is not existential. Israel no doubt has been working on plans to neutralize those threats, in ways we cannot imagine - or Israel will send a message to Iran that those projectiles will be treated as if they were launched from Tehran and the response will be in that direction.
Every time Israel has done what Iran considers a provocation, Iran has promised retribution - and come up short. Even honor is not enough to make Iran want to bet the country on a war with Israel. Hezbollah was its buffer, and it can no longer rely on that.
This is the first major setback for the "Axis of Resistance" since Iran created it. Israel is the one that has popped the balloon of inevitable Iranian growth in strength and influence. The psychological value of embarrassing Iran in the rest of the Muslim world is dramatic. .This is no less than a restructuring of the Middle East, no less important than the Abraham Accords, that has increased Israel's prestige and diminished Iran's.
