Expert predictions on Gaza starvation consistently the opposite of what they end up measuring

Mark Zlochin put together some very interesting charts showing how, since February, the IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) have predicted famine like Phase 5 conditions getting worse - and then their own data shows that the situation has kept improving.

In February, they predicted 50% of Gaza would be in Phase 5 conditions in May - and then they admitted the number was only 15%.

In May, they predicted 22% of Gaza would be in Phase 5 by September - and now they admit that it is only 6%.

Now, they are predicting that the IPC Phase 5 number will be 16% in April 2025. 

For northern Gaza, their projections have been similarly off-base:

To be sure, the situation in Gaza is far from ideal. Some people really are scrambling to get food. But somehow Israel keeps finding ways to bring in food.

Since the end of September, Israel has further restricted food imports because it has been clear that Hamas is hijacking the food, selling it for a profit and bankrolling its military.  Israel has every right to do anything necessary to stop Hamas from strengthening, including blocking food aid, according to real international law. 

But Israel does not want Gazans to starve. Its actions have shown that time and time again. Right now Israel is trying to find private contractors that they will pay to protect aid being brought into Gaza safely and without it gong to Hamas. 

The "experts" always make the assumption that Israel doesn't care about Gazan lives. Itis a fundamentally antisemitic assumption.. And it is consistently wrong.

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