Sunday, October 20, 2024
Elder of Ziyon
Right now, Hamas is suffering a leadership vacuum. Even before Israel killed Hamas' "political leader" Ismail Haniyeh, Sinwar was really the real leader of Hamas, since he was the one on the ground in Gaza and only his decisions mattered. No matter what Hamas in Qatar or elsewhere decided, Sinwar was the one who held all the cards. He decided what the military strategy would be, what the negotiating strategy would be and what would happen to the hostages.
The idea that Hamas will simply replace Sinwar and everything will be the way it was, the way they have done in the past when Israel assassinated Hamas leaders, is fantasy fueled by Hamas propaganda. Israel has already killed most of the major figures in Gaza so there are very few who can step into his bloody shoes.
Again, anyone outside Gaza is irrelevant.
This means that either Sinwar will be replaced by a unifying figure in Gaza or by some sort of committee.
The vacuum created by Hassan Nasrallah's assassination in Hezbollah has seemingly been filled by Iranian officials, but this does not seem as likely for Hamas. Iran will need to approve any replacement but it cannot provide one.
Either way, the honor/shame mentality that the "experts" consistently ignore or downplay is, as always, the most important factor in what Hamas will do next.
The most likely single candidate appears to be Sinwar's younger brother Mohammed, who is equally ruthless. Whether he has the same leadership skills is an open question but he appears to be competent and just as much of a hardliner. He is not likely to want to show more flexibility in negotiations than his dead older brother did.
If a committee takes over, that also does not mean any realistic chance for leadership that would be pragmatic. The most extreme member of the committee would likely be the veto vote over any potential deal, and no one wants to be known as the person who knuckled under to Israel.
In either scenario, Hamas is not likely to surrender, or to negotiate seriously for the hostages, unless they have a guarantee of survival as Gaza's leaders, and Israel will never accept that.
As it is today, Hamas is no longer an army. It is back to being mostly a guerilla group. As such, it is not going to be destroyed anytime soon. But as long as Gazans are still afraid of Hamas, Hamas has effective control of Gaza even in skeleton form.
In short, Hamas has to be defeated in a way that no one can deny. Which means it needs to be not just defeated, but replaced.
That is the real problem.
For Hamas to be defeated in the minds of Gazans, someone has to fill the gap of day to day governance - and no one really wants to do that.
The PA would love to take over Gaza but it needs Hamas to be completely destroyed first. It will do everything to avoid fighting Hamas' guerilla remnants because it is afraid of appearing to be doing what Israel wants.
A multinational force, preferably led by Arab countries at peace with Israel, is a possibility but that is remote as well.
I always felt that letting the UAE take over Gaza would be the best solution, and I still do, but no matter the benefits to making Gaza an emirate, they don't want to be put in that position.
As long as that question is not settled, Hamas remains the de facto government of Gaza, no matter how dysfunctional and weak it is. NGOs can take up a small amount of the government functions like delivering aid but any real replacement has to be willing to fight Hamas for that title, and no one is willing to do that.
It appears to me that the main factors for Hamas maintaining its grip on power are whether Hamas leaders still have effective communications with their operatives in the field, whether the rank and file of Hamas are still dedicated to risk their lives for the organization, and whether they can still assert an iron fist rule over the people of Gaza while still fighting Israel. If any of those three are broken, Hamas is no longer nearly as much of a threat and can perhaps be replaced with an entity that is willing to tke over. But, again, someone has to be willing to step in.
Contrary to what the US and the West claim, Israel has little control over how Gaza will look in a post-Hamas world unless Israel wants to directly re-occupy Gaza and take over the governmental and security functions itself. That is not something anyone wants to see. The IDF itself would have to dedicate many tens of thousands of people indefinitely for a project like that, and most Israelis don't want that. This may be the least of all evils but no one is likely to support it.
So the obstacle for peace is not Israel but that no one wants to seriously challenge Hamas for ruling Gaza. They still fear Hamas. Israel can deal with any leadership that is not dedicated to destroying Israel - but who could that be?
Until those questions are answered, Israel needs to prioritize the cognitive war to make sure that the Arab world sees Hamas is defeated and impotent. Of course, it has to simultaneously continue to degrade Hamas' political and military abilities. If possible, Hamas should look like a joke to the Arab world. Because the weaker it looks, more more likely a substitute can be found.
Without a substitute, peace is simply not possible and Gazans are the ones who will suffer the most.
