Friday, January 03, 2020
Elder of ZiyonYet in a way, that may have been the entire point.
Iran, and Soleimani in particular, have known for many years that they can execute their strategy of slowly taking over the Middle East by doing lots of actions that fall just below the red line of provoking a major reaction. Their actions in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as Gaza and Lebanon, are all intended to build a strong, frightening, impenetrable and inevitable Shiite crescent from Iran to the Mediterranean that would strangle Western interests and force Sunni Arab states into submission.
We have all been watching this play out in slow motion, with Iran hiding behind thinly veiled proxies. Yet according to the accepted rules of international diplomacy, there was little the world could do to disrupt what Iran made appear unstoppable.
Enter the Madman Theory, attributed to Richard Nixon but that Donald Trump has embraced. Killing Soleimani definitely qualifies. All of the carefully calibrated calculations behind Iran's slow drip strategy of full hegemony over the Middle East are out the window. They never expected a response like this.
Suddenly, Iranian actions that seemed safe no longer are.
More importantly, the psychological impact on the Middle East is gigantic. In a few minutes, the perception that Iran is running the show and everyone else is playing defense has been shattered. No longer is Iran setting the agenda. Now it is on the defensive. It can no longer assume that its aggressive moves in Yemen or Iraq will go unanswered. It has no idea what the US might do.
Not only that, but the assassination increases the confidence of the Gulf states in countering Iranian moves. It increases the confidence of Iranian protesters. It increases the resolve of the Iraqi protesters against the pro-Iran government there. It is difficult to think of a more effective, less bloody way to achieve all of these gains.
Does Trump have an agenda for the Middle East? I doubt it. I don't think he wants the US to be heavily involved in the region, rather he wants to support US friends in their own goals.
Proving that America really has the back of its Middle Eastern friends - as opposed to the disastrous Obama desire for appeasement, a mindset that Iran took full advantage of - is the single most positive thing to happen in the region in a very long time. And it could only happen because the person who ordered it is perceived to be unpredictable.
