The likely Arab plan for Gaza: No Hamas, no PA, no deportation ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Sunday, February 23, 2025

The likely Arab plan for Gaza: No Hamas, no PA, no deportation

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, describes the likely Arab plan for Gaza:

From left, leaders of Bahrain (CP), Qatar, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt plus Jordanian CP and UAE NSA, met in Riyadh to discuss "Egyptian Plan for Gaza."

Plan not out yet, will likely be unveiled at Cairo Arab League Emergency Summit on March 4. Plan expected to promise enormous amount of Gulf money (up to $20 billion) to Gaza (Egypt will certainly get a cut and PA's Mahmoud Abbas will also get a bribe to buy him out of the plan).

The crux of the plan is this: In return for the enormous money to rebuild Gaza, both Hamas and Abbas will be out of Gaza. In their stead, a Palestinian governing body (the plan calls them technocrats), will be installed by the Arab League and put in charge of rebuilding Gaza, physically and politically. This body will oversee reconstruction and make sure to keep out two things: PA's corruption and Hamas's wars. Funders, after all, want to make sure that all the billions they will invest will not be stolen or not be destroyed in yet another round of war with Israel.

Who will be on the Gaza governing body to be anointed at the Arab League? Each of the leaders in the picture have Palestinians close to them. All of the leaders in the picture are on the same page (against Islamism and supportive of peace) except for Qatar (pro-Islamism and anti-peace - "resistance"). Qatar will likely get someone on the governing body, someone who is Islamist light, who is not Hamas but maybe Hamas likes him. Everyone is perhaps reasoning that Arab consensus is required to edge Hamas and PA.

President Trump's Gaza Plan jumpstarted this Arab Plan for the "day after" in Gaza and gave it good cover. It scared everyone into action, and gave urgency and legitimacy tp the Arab Plan as an alternative to the "plan to displace Palestinians." Between the two plans, both Hamas and Abbas will have to accept the Arab Plan even if they hate it.

But make no mistake, both Hamas and Abbas will do all they can to derail the Arab Plan and take over once they deem enough of Gaza had been reconstructed.

I don't know if this is all true. I'm seeing some sources saying Hamas weapons will not be destroyed but kept in some warehouse, or that the Saudis insist the PA is involved.

As with all plans, it is easy to find problems. Qatar will try to allow Hamas to still exist, albeit under the radar for a while. If Hamas wants to put up a fight, I'm not sure what Arabs would want to fight, even if they can't stand them. Keeping Gazans in Gaza against their will will look bad. A lot of Gazans still support Hamas or other terror groups.

However, it is clear that Israel by itself could not offer a "day after" plan that stands a chance of success. Israel cannot realistically forcibly deport two million Gazans.

This plan, as it stands now, is infinitely better than the situation in Gaza after the other wars and much better than any other alternative anyone was able to offer a month ago (besides mine.)

Remarkably, this plan appears to address Israel's major concerns about Gaza. No Hamas, no PA, demilitarized, controlled by presumably reasonable people who care about the welfare of the Gazans themselves.

While this is not surprising to those of us who follow the Arab thinking, it completely disregards the European consensus that the PA must be in charge of "Palestine." The "everyone knows" scenarios ("everyone knows what the final peace agreement will be") have been torpedoed by the Arab world itself. If the Arab world doesn't trust the PA to control Gaza, that means they don't trust the PA to control the West Bank, either. This is congruent with the Israeli position.

The other remarkable part of the plan is that it tacitly gives Israel veto power over the whole thing. It is not an "Arab peace plan" which is take it or leave it - it is an attempt to offer an alternative to the Trump plan of expelling Gazans while addressing Israel's security needs, something that has never been a priority for the Arab world.

Israel is in a position to say that this is acceptable with additional provisos like Israel maintaining airspace control and the ability to inspect all imports, no UNRWA, no "right of return" for Gazans to Israel and allowing Gazans who want to leave to go to any country that would have them.

I can see Israel accepting this as long as all the countries behind the plan recognize Israel. That might cause Qatar (and maybe Kuwait) to balk, but the Saudis would be on board. That in turn, would take out the Qatari problem.

If Israel is OK with the plan, so is Trump, so the Arab countries need to please Israel.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Trump's plan for Gaza was a feint to scare the Arab world to do something just like this. It is indeed ironic that the major Arab incentive to helping Palestinians is their distaste at the idea of Palestinians moving into their own countries.