.@TheLancet does it again: Lies, damned lies and statistics ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Sunday, February 16, 2025

.@TheLancet does it again: Lies, damned lies and statistics

Life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip during the period October, 2023, to September, 2024

In the central variant, life expectancy in the Gaza Strip decreased by 34·9 years during the first 12 months of the war, about half (–46·3%) the prewar level of 75·5 years. Life expectancy losses were larger for males (–38·0 years [–51·6%]) than for females, but nonetheless, females also suffered large losses (–29·9 years [–38·6%]). Losses between the low and high variants ranged between –31·1 years (–41·1%) and –39·4 years (–52·2%) for both sexes combined.

According to the paper, the life expectancy of people in Gaza is currently 40.6 years.

The researchers used various methods to ensure that their conclusions would be worse than reality.

First, a note on the definition of "life expectancy." No one can seriously say that a child born in Gaza today has an expected lifespan of only 40 years. Their models assume that the war would go on indefinitely, and therefore if the war continues with the intensity of the first twelve months for the next 50 years, then the life expectancy of a child born today would be 40 years.

That assumption is clearly bizarre. Assuming an intense war for decades is nowhere close to reasonable. It is not a true reflection of how long one would expect a child born in Gaza today to live.

The study also cherry picks the data timeframe. The number of deaths, even according to the Gaza Health Ministry, kept continually decreasing with each month of the war as the IDF managed to get civilians out of the way and only target militants more accurately. So while in October 2023, the ministry counted 8,000 deaths, that went down to about 1,300 deaths in December 2024. By choosing the 12 month period starting in October 2023, instead of, say, calendar year 2024, the researchers are over-emphasizing the first months of the war that do not represent the more steady-state mortality numbers of the latter months. This affects their life expectancy calculations a great deal by assuming a steady state of 3,500 deaths per month (for the 12 months of October-September) rather than less than 2,000 deaths per month average for calendar year 2024, or less than 1,300 deaths per month by looking only at the last months of 2024 which would be a normal assumption even assuming the war would continue. In fact, the curve of ever-decreasing death rates per month indicate that the trend of deaths would continue to decrease even if the fighting continues throughout 2025 and beyond.

In other words, the 40.6 life expectancy is artificially low, the result of choosing data that is not representative of Gaza before the cease fire.

One other point is that the average terrorist can be assumed to be between 18-30 years old. Younger people's deaths dramatically affect the life expectancy calculation. Even if the IDF had perfect aim, and killed 20,000 Hamas terrorists and no one else, the total life expectancy in Gaza would be expected to change markedly. It doesn't mean the average non-Hamas Gazan has a lower life expectancy.

To my understanding, life expectancy is typically calculated under the assumption that mortality rates will return to normal once the crisis ends—which the study ignores. There are life expectancy models that account for short term disruptions like wars or pandemics, and this study does not appear to use any of them.

This study is yet more anti-Israel propaganda disguised as science.

(h/t JW)