RAND falsely claims that releasing terrorists would save money

From the NYT, June 6:

Supporters of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generally start with a moral argument: Both peoples deserve the rights of self-determination and sovereignty; one should not rule over the other. Lately, President Obama and liberal American Jewish leaders also frame their case in security terms, saying Israel cannot survive as a Jewish democracy without ending its occupation of Palestinian territories.

But how about $173 billion as incentive for a peace deal?

That is how much a new report by the RAND Corporation says the Israeli and Palestinian economies stand to gain over the next decade if an independent Palestine were to emerge tomorrow — admittedly a development that might require divine intervention. It translates to an average per capita income increase of $1,000 (36 percent) for every Palestinian in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and $2,200 (5 percent) for each Israeli.

There is a lot to criticize in this study, and Joe Settler covered many of the issues. But I want to look at one specific point that RAND makes in  order to highlight how little the "experts" know.

The study lists eight costs that the Palestinian Authority would avoid if there is a peace deal. One of them is the cost of paying terrorists a stipend:

An estimated 6 percent of the PA’s budget is spent annually providing stipends to the families of prisoners held in Israel. The total annual value of this direct cost is approximately $200 million.

So if there is a two-state solution, RAND says, the state of Palestine can save these $200 million annually.

This neatly shows how worthless this study is.

First of all - why do these terrorists have to be paid today? What exactly makes this expenditure so important that the PA must go deeper into debt to pay the families of terrorists? Why not recommend that the PA stop these payments today?

The answer is because one of the two states that RAND is pushing happens to wholeheartedly support terrorism. These payments are, after all, an insurance policy to support terrorist activity.

Secondly, why should Israel be obligated to release murderers in any "peace" agreement? Isn't releasing known terrorists the antithesis of peace?

Thirdlly, there is more than one financial issue with releasing terrorists. There is in fact a good chance that some of these terrorists will return to terrorism, peace deal or not. While RAND obviously doesn't care about Israelis being killed in this scenario - the study is only about money, after all - what about the financial costs to the victims of terror, of hospitalization and insurance and funerals?

Finally, a point that shows how the authors of the study aren't even aware of the basics of Palestinian Arab priorities. When hundreds of prisoners were released in the Shalit deal, the PA didn't stop paying them - they hired them in ceremonial jobs that they have for life! These ex-prisoners are paid as much as $50,000 annually as their reward for killing Jews.

There is no cost savings!

RAND makes the fatal assumption that a Palestinian state would not support terror and would not pay lifetime stipends to murderers. Yet we know they do.

When researchers have blind spots, their research is next to worthless.