Saturday, March 28, 2026

03/27 Links Pt1: Israel is crafting a powerful new anti-Iran axis; Iranian missile strike US airbase in Saudi Arabia, 12 soldiers wounded

From Ian:

‘Experts’ hate Trump’s war on Iran. They’re making seven fatal errors
What is wrong with the West’s expert class? Do they really believe, as they keep telling us, that the war against Iran is a disaster, the end of days, the final humiliation for Donald Trump? Such defeatism, such catastrophism are not warranted. It is far too soon to conclude how this war will end, regardless of what Iranian propagandists and other appeasers would have us believe.

I can count seven principal errors clouding “expert” judgments in the West.

Error 1
The first is the European establishment’s inability to accept the scale of Iran’s defeats since the Oct 7, 2023 pogroms against Israel, one of the greatest military miscalculations in modern history.

The regime’s decades-long plan for regional domination lies in tatters. It has wasted tens of billions of dollars, its proxies have been defanged, its economy plunged into depression, its mainland ravaged with close to 20,000 targets bombed, its navy sunk, its air defences crippled, its missile stock and launchers decimated, its military-industrial complex blown up, its nuclear capacity curtailed – but apart from that, all is well in Tehran. It is a strange kind of victory which has seen Iran fail to shoot down a single US or Israeli manned plane or sink a single ship.

The reality is that Iran has been downgraded from regional superpower to a pirate terror state, able only to shoot a few missiles and drones at civilian targets, to threaten crimes against humanity, and to blackmail the shipping industry.

Yes, this residual power matters greatly: controlling the Strait of Hormuz and threatening Gulf oil and gas facilities is a potent form of asymmetric warfare that is inflicting devastating damage. But it hardly amounts to US defeat, or certainly not yet.

I don’t know how this war will end. Trump’s negotiations may fail. He may botch an invasion, or he may launch a successful airborne raid. What is certain is that he must reopen the Strait and will be judged on the outcome.

Error 2
The second myth is that Trump is somehow struggling because he supposedly failed to plan for the obvious. In fact, many US assumptions were either right or too pessimistic. It proved remarkably easy to kill Ali Khamenei. Iran failed to overwhelm US and Israeli defence systems.

Critics warned that stockpiles of allied interceptors would run out almost immediately; that was false. The Gulf states turned out to be more resilient than anticipated; instead of turning to China or hoisting the white flag, they shot down missiles, and the Saudis and UAE are moving closer to Washington. US combat losses have been smaller than expected.

Not everything has gone better than planned. Trump may have hoped that Iran’s ability to deploy missiles and drones would have diminished further. The low-probability possibility of an immediate implosion of the regime hasn’t materialised. It may well be that the US underpriced the chances of attacks on Qatari energy assets.

But the idea that Iran would move to block the Straits of Hormuz was the best-rehearsed risk in geopolitics. Trump probably accepted it as a necessary trade-off, an inevitable hit. It may well be that Trump didn’t expect Iran to move so fast. It might have been a blunder not to dispatch more demining resources to the Gulf ahead of time. We shall soon find out; the stakes are enormous.
History’s Pro Tips on Iran
Nothing in human experience compares to the wars of the last 120 years. Their scope has grown as the world has shrunk. The international laws governing conduct in war have too often failed. Technology advances, and along with it war’s lethality and devastation. So war is bad. No one wants another war. Or rather, almost no one. More on that shortly. In the meantime, the question before us is whether the current U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran qualify as just. It’s a debatable matter. I believe they are. I understand the opposite view. But I also find it unpersuasive. Here’s why.

The United States and Israel didn’t start the current conflict. It’s merely the latest phase in a war that began in earnest forty-seven years ago; a methodical war of aggression pursued by Iran to erase Israel as a nation and defeat the United States as the world’s “Great Satan.” The Tehran regime now supports a global network of terrorist violence. In the process, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the same regime has murdered or sponsored the murder of scores of thousands of people, including many of its own citizens, the vast majority innocent of any wrongdoing.

It would be easy but inadequate to excuse today’s Iranian policies as vengeance for the 1953 Mossadegh Affair. In that year, at the height of the Cold War, Britain’s MI6 and the American CIA overthrew Iran’s democratically elected prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh. In his place, they secured the pro-Western Reza Shah Pahlavi in power. For Britain, the goal was maintaining its control over Iranian oil. For the United States, the coup sought to prevent any Iranian drift toward the Soviet Union and any internal threat from Iran’s Tudeh (communist) Party. In the end, Mossadegh was imprisoned for three years and then held under house arrest for the remainder of his life. Several hundred pro- and anti-Mossadegh rioters died in the ensuing street violence.

So much for the past. The hatred animating today’s Islamic regime is far more intense, systematic, and expansive than mere revenge for an event more than seventy years ago. Mossadegh died in 1967. The 1979 revolution sidelined and repressed Mossadegh’s secular, nationalist allies, and his memory is treated with deep ambivalence. In practice, Tehran reviles anything non-Muslim. Its “tolerance” for internal, legally recognized minorities, including Catholics and other Christians, is little more than theater. It amounts to a kind of slow strangulation with distrust and oppressive constraints. The regime especially loathes what it sees as a godless West with its arrogance, licentious comforts, and obscene wealth. It has the same brutal zealotry, the same puritanical extremism, the same easy use of deceit, as the homicidal ideologies that preceded it in the last century.

Tehran has repeatedly lied in negotiations about its nuclear program. It continues to pursue nuclear weapons. This, despite years of pleading and pressure from the international community. It ignores both sanctions and financial enticements. It’s built an immense missile and drone capability, putting Europe and eventually the United States within range. It uses cluster weapons—banned by international law—against civilian populations. And if current military efforts against Iran prove anything, it’s the impressive scope and depth of the regime’s war preparations, the dispersal and hardening of key infrastructure, and the survival of many leadership cadres despite massive damage. A reasonable peace assuring mutual security has never been, and is not even now, on Tehran’s agenda. One doesn’t “make a deal,” a deal that’s sincere and lasting, with psychotics. Religious and political fanatics don’t stop. They won’t, because they can’t. Thus, the best one can hope for when dealing with mentally diseased zealots is preventing them from hurting others.
Hamas Confirms: Gaza Airstrikes That Hit Homes & Tents Actually Killed Terrorists — 10 Examples
A common narrative of the Gaza war is that Israel conducted indiscriminate bombing, striking civilian homes, shelters, and tents in humanitarian zones without military justification. Some observers have alleged that AI and automated systems were used to target single junior operatives or persons with no real affiliation to Hamas or other militant groups. Yet no clear, affirmative evidence has been produced showing the IDF deliberately targeted a civilian site absent a military objective.

This narrative nevertheless became central to accusations of war crimes and genocide. It gained traction in part because Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) systematically operate in civilian dress and embed within homes, mosques, hospitals, and humanitarian zones as part of their human shield strategy. Under these conditions, strikes on legitimate military targets can appear indistinguishable from attacks on civilians, especially in initial reporting. Early accounts, often provided by Hamas operatives posing as journalists , were frequently accepted and amplified before additional information emerged.

Even when the IDF identified targets and provided operational details, these explanations were often dismissed. However, that posture is becoming difficult to maintain. Recent disclosures by Hamas and PIJ, through official statements, affiliated Telegram channels, and martyr notices, have identified dozens of their own operatives killed in incidents widely reported as attacks on civilians. PIJ alone has acknowledged more than 140 members of its command structure killed during the war.

When these admissions are cross-referenced with specific strike reports and contemporaneous local reporting that initially presented the individuals as civilians but now confirms them as combatants, a consistent pattern emerges. Many incidents described as unlawful attacks on homes, shelters, or tents in humanitarian zones were in fact strikes targeting embedded fighters. As more of these cases come to light, the narrative of indiscriminate or blind AI directed airstrikes on civilian targets is exposed as false by the accumulating evidence.

The following ten cases, drawn from recent Hamas and PIJ martyr notices, demonstrate the pattern using the groups’ own admissions.


Jake Wallis Simons: Israel is crafting a powerful new anti-Iran axis
For the few of us who have occupied the lonely position of standing up for Israel from Oct 7 throughout the war in Gaza, it has often felt like the entire world is against us. In May 2024, for instance, Israeli troops were poised to enter Rafah. Remember that? This was vital to the defeat of Hamas: the southern town was its last redoubt, the location of its smuggling tunnels into Egypt by which it could resupply, and the hiding place of its terror mastermind Yahya Sinwar.

With so much at stake, the whole of mankind, it seemed, mobilised to prevent it from happening. On social media, the viral “all eyes on Rafah” meme attracted more than 90 million views. Multiple UN bodies warned that the offensive would be a civilian disaster, posing “catastrophic risks” to 600,000 children. Kamala Harris, then vice-president, told ABC News that “I have studied the maps. There’s nowhere for those folks (the civilians of Rafah) to go.”

We of sound judgment had never felt so alone. Could nobody see that Israel had no choice but to evacuate the civilians and conquer Hamas’ last significant stronghold? Could nobody see that with IDF expertise, it was eminently possible? Was it us who were mad? In the event, Israeli forces evacuated a million people to an expanded humanitarian area in central Gaza, killed Sinwar and effectively won the war. Which was a good thing. Right? Right? Hello?

General Kainerugaba may be rather mad – his X account, which has 1.2 million followers, makes Trump look moderate (“whenever you hear thunder and lightning in the heavens, you should know that the angels are preparing Christ’s chariots… They called down the thunder, well now they’ve got it!”) – but he reflects a more serious pattern. Thankfully, the Iran conflict has shown the world that Israel is not alone.

Anybody who loves Western values and has known first-hand the brutality of our enemies stands firmly behind the Jewish state. The Iranian people have suffered more than any other in recent months. Which flags do they fly at their rallies? Shamefully, not the Union Jack. Not the colours of the European Union or the UN. No, in their hundreds of thousands, in London and all over the world, they unapologetically raise the banner of Israel.

What about the Ukrainians, who are showing such bottomless courage in facing down Vladimir Putin’s orcs? According to one poll, just 1 per cent of them support the Palestinian side in the conflict, while an overwhelming number backs the Jewish state (some have even fought shoulder-to-shoulder on the front lines).

The same is true in many African countries, particularly those that are strongly Christian, reliant on agricultural technology or menaced by jihadism. The position of Christian Uganda goes without saying, but Israel also enjoys buoyant support in Kenya (which is threatened by the al-Qaeda offshoot al-Shabaab), Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ghana, Somaliland and elsewhere.

The Gulf Arabs, meanwhile, may not be full-throated in their support of Israel, but they are placing growing pressure on Washington to prosecute this war to its conclusion. The expansion of the Abraham Accords may well follow victory.

Something is happening. The luxury to condemn Israel while burning through the credits of post-war Western indolence won’t last forever, and real people with real lives are growing impatient with it. Those comfortable elites, with their fashionable keffiyehs and self-righteous turns of phrase, should be put on notice.

Reality is steaming down the tracks faster than they know. The great 20th century Russian novelist Vasily Grossman could have been addressing them directly in his masterpiece, Life and Fate: “Only yesterday you were sure of yourself, strong and cheerful, a son of the time. But now another time has come – and you don’t even know it.”


Politico Publishes Cartoon Depicting Trump, Republicans Wearing Blood-Covered Jewish Prayer Shawls, Yarmulkes Amid Bags of Money
Politico published a cartoon on Friday featuring anti-Semitic imagery in an attempt to criticize the war in Iran. The image depicts President Donald Trump, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Republican members of Congress wearing blood-covered Jewish prayer shawls and yarmulkes.

The cartoon, drawn by former New York Post cartoonist Sean Delonas, depicts the lawmakers aboard a rowboat labeled "Ship of Neocons"—a play on the Hieronymus Bosch painting Ship of Fools—that is about to plummet over a waterfall. A bag of blood-smeared money crowns the mast, and the word "Amalek," a reference to a historical enemy of the Jewish people from the Hebrew Bible, appears in the background.

Netanyahu, depicted with an exaggerated nose, is also shown wearing a blood-covered Jewish prayer shawl and eating from a table covered in blood, while Trump, also in a Jewish prayer shawl, is drawn underneath the word "Amalek."

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), who is not Jewish, is depicted wearing a yarmulke and a Jewish prayer shawl and holding a bottle of blood. Graham and Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), also drawn in a blood-covered Jewish prayer shawl, have supported the Iran war and are longtime supporters of Israel.

The cartoon plays on classic anti-Semitic tropes about Jews covertly controlling events, in this case the decision to launch the war in Iran, and using financial exploitation to do so. The exaggeration of Netanyahu's nose in a grotesque, caricatured style plays on age-old efforts to dehumanize Jews.

The drawing was published as part of Politico's "Cartoon Carousel," which Politico describes as a round-up of the "best" political cartoons of the week.


In tense call, Vance knocked PM for overselling likelihood of Iran regime change — report
US Vice President JD Vance took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to task in a Monday phone call for overstating the possibility that the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran could topple its regime, Axios reported Friday, citing a US source and an Israeli source.

“Before the war, Bibi really sold it to the president as being easy, as regime change being a lot likelier than it was. And the VP was clear-eyed about some of those statements,” the US source was quoted saying, using Netanyahu’s nickname.

US officials also think some of their Israeli counterparts consider the vice president insufficiently hawkish, and that the Israelis were seeking to undermine the vice president as he takes a lead role in efforts to end the war.

A senior US official quoted by Axios said that “if the Iranians can’t strike a deal with Vance, they don’t get a deal. He’s the best they’re gonna get.”

But the outlet also quoted an administration official pushing back on the narrative that Vance was eager to make a deal and get out of Iran. “It’s an Israeli op against JD,” said the official, amid reports that Iran wanted to negotiate with the vice president.

Vance’s advisers also suspect that his Israeli critics were responsible for a Hebrew media report claiming the vice president had yelled at Netanyahu over the phone about Israel’s failure to rein in soaring settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. US and Israeli officials have denied the claim.
Iranian missile, drones strike US airbase Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, 12 soldiers wounded
Iranian missiles struck on Friday the US military base Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, damaging several refueling aircraft, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing American and Saudi officials.

According to the report, the attack, which also involved the use of drones, was confirmed using open-source imagery and data circulating online.

According to the report, at least 10 US service members were wounded during the attack. A report by Reuters said that 12 soldiers were injured during the attack, two of them in critical condition, according to a US official.

In the previous attack against the US airbase, five refueling aircraft were damaged. The Pentagon did not comment on the attack on the base. Saudi Arabia, UAE intercept ballistic missiles

The Saudi Defense Ministry said later on Friday that a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh, the Saudi capital, was intercepted and destroyed mid-flight.

The United Arab Emirates Defense Ministry also issued alerts about ballistic missiles and drones on their way to the country.

"The Defense Ministry asserts that the sounds heard are the result of Air Defense Systems engaging missiles, and the Fighters are intercepting cruise missiles and UAVs," the UAE said in a statement.

The UAE also reported two fires in Abu Dhabi due to shrapnel falling after a ballistic missile interception, with authorities asking the population to stay away from the affected sites, Reuters reported.

Bahrain also suffered Iranian attacks on Friday, with the Bahrain Interior Minister reporting that a facility was on fire after being struck by a missile attack.


Israel bombs 2 IRGC-linked steel plants, 2 nuclear facilities as Iran vows revenge
The Israeli Air Force on Friday bombed two of Iran’s largest steel factories, according to Iranian media and Israeli security sources, as well as two facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program, in moves that sparked vows of retaliation from Tehran.

The Fars news agency reported that Israeli strikes hit Khuzestan Steel near Ahvaz and Mobarakeh Steel in Isfahan, two major production facilities.

The strikes on the plants, which an Israeli security source briefing reporters said were partially owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were expected to cause billions of dollars in damage to the Iranian economy, as well as “paralyze” Iran’s steel industry.

It marked the first apparent instance of Israel targeting Iranian industrial facilities not directly linked to its defense or oil and gas industries. US President Donald Trump indicated earlier this week that energy sites would not be hit for the time being, as Washington has sought to avoid turning Iran into a failed state, while Jerusalem has indicated such a result is still preferable to the current regime’s continued rule.

An Israeli security source told reporters that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the Friday strikes, with the latter publicly vowing separately that Israel would intensify its strikes against Iran.


IDF to extend Lebanon rocket warning time as Hezbollah pushed from border zone
The IDF Home Front Command announced Friday that it will be extending the warning times for rocket fire from Lebanon, as Hezbollah has been pushed back further from the border due to recent Israeli military advances into southern Lebanon.

The move means that those in northern border communities that until now had to seek shelter immediately or within 15 seconds will now have slightly more time.

As the IDF has pushed forces into southern Lebanon, the military also said it has identified that Hezbollah is launching most of its rocket attacks on Israel from deeper within the country, including from areas north of the Litani River.

The Home Front Command, along with other military bodies, analyzed Hezbollah’s rocket fire along with the IDF’s detection systems and determined that dozens of communities near the border can get slightly longer warning times.

As part of the changes, the Home Front Command said that a total of 58 communities where the time to seek shelter was immediate will now have 15 seconds to do so; another eight communities where the time to seek shelter was immediate will now have 30 seconds; and six communities where the time to seek shelter was 15 seconds will now have 30 seconds.

For another 10 communities on the northern border, where the time to seek shelter is immediate, 15 seconds, or 30 seconds, no changes will be made at this stage, as the Home Front Command said it currently does not have enough data to adjust the warning times.
IDF finds Hezbollah tunnel near south Lebanon church as group 'exploits' Christian population
The IDF uncovered a Hezbollah tunnel stocked with weapons near a church in southern Lebanon, the military announced on Friday, emphasizing the threat the terrorist organization poses to Lebanon's Christian population.

The tunnel was discovered by the IDF's Givati Brigade in the Lebanese village of El-Khiam. The area had previously been cleared by the IDF in December 2024. Therein, three shafts were discovered, as well as mattresses and food used by Hezbollah terrorists.

"Since the establishment of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, it has systematically worked to exploit the Christian population in Lebanon and turn their areas into battle arenas against Israel," the IDF stated.

The military added that Hezbollah has turned Christian villages into "battle arenas," describing such moves as an attempt by the organization to "take control" of the areas while endangering the lives of the local population and damaging their property.

The IDF also said that Hezbollah prevents Christian civilians from fleeing combat zones and has even fired upon them in their attempts to escape, further endangering their lives.

The use of church grounds for military purposes "constitutes a violation of international law" and "directly endangers the local population," the military emphasized.


One killed, several wounded in Iranian ballistic missile attack on central Israel
One person was killed and several others were wounded by an Iranian ballistic missile fired at central Israel late Friday, the sixth attack that Iran launched on the country throughout the day.

The missile carried a cluster bomb warhead, spreading bomblets over a wide area.

One bomblet impact killed a man in his 60s who was not in a bomb shelter, and another submunition hit a residential building and lightly wounded two men in their 50s, according to the police and Magen David Adom.

The Fire and Rescue Service said it handled a total of six sites where submunitions from the missile impacted.

Medics also reported that two people were lightly injured in the Kuseife area of southern Israel earlier Friday evening from falling fragments following the interception of an Iranian ballistic missile.

MDA said it treated a man aged 37 and a woman in her 20s who were injured by shrapnel. Both were taken to Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.

Iran again targeted the south with a ballistic missile salvo launched early Saturday, triggering sirens in Beersheba and surrounding towns, before attacking the north and center of the of the country with two more volleys hours later. None of the attacks on Saturday resulted in injuries.


A look at the giant Iranian missile hulls scattered across Israel and the West Bank
Some are the size of small trucks, and they’ve come crashing to the ground almost daily for a month — littering school yards, roadsides and hilltops with visceral remnants of a Middle East at war.

Across Israel and the West Bank, massive chunks of Iranian ballistic missiles have slammed to the earth after being shot out of the sky by Israeli air defense systems.

Near the Palestinian city of Nablus, a young girl posed with a missile fragment that smashed into an olive tree grove.

In an Israeli school in a West Bank settlement, children climbed on a huge metal missile case that fell in their playground.

Nearly a month after Israel and the US launched their joint war on Iran, Israelis and Palestinians have become used to frequent official warnings to stay away from missile fragments, which could contain unexploded ordnance or toxic materials.

“These objects may appear harmless at first glance, but can pose a risk of explosion and shrapnel,” Magen David Adom emergency service said on Friday.

At least 270 missile fragments have fallen across the West Bank, the majority near Ramallah, with others landing near Nablus, Bethlehem, Hebron, and Salfit, according to figures issued by the Palestinian Authority’s civil defense.

It cooperates with police to move missile fragments to secure locations, said civil defense spokesperson Nael Azza. At least three Palestinians had been arrested for trying to sell off missile fragments as scrap metal, he said.

Since the beginning of the war, movement restrictions imposed by the Israeli military on the West Bank, combined with a spike in extremist Jewish settler violence, have delayed emergency response efforts in the West Bank, Azza said.


School of War: How Can America Defeat Iran? With John Spencer
John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown?

Times
03:25 Targeting as strategy
10:40 Neurological strike
20:16 An evolution in military affairs
26:30 Adaptation
30:48 Center of gravity
39:37 The missile program


Commentary Podcast: How Does it End?
Today we discuss the lingering questions regarding Trump's Iran strategy - is he still pursuing a definitive end to the war, or searching for an exit ramp due to rising oil prices and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz? We also touch on the historical context of American losses of life and equipment, and the consequences of American treatment of its international allies. Plus, the fight over TSA funding reaches the boiling point, and the emerging danger of prediction market abuse by insiders.


UKLFI: Dr Efrat Sopher discusses decentralisation of Iran leadership and Houthi involvement v US:Israel
Following extensive decapitation of Iran's central government, leadership of Iran and its proxies is now decentralised. Dr Efrat Sopher, Chair of the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research at Haifa University, discusses the implications for war and peace on BBC News.


spiked: The Iranian threat to Britain | spiked podcast
Esther Krakue, Tom Slater and Fraser Myers on the Golders Green arson attack, Tucker Carlson’s praise of Sharia and the hypocrisy of celebrity ‘anti-fascism’.






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