Monday, March 09, 2026

03/09 Links Pt1: Gulf states have a stark choice — and Trump must make them face it; Benny Morris: Iran’s Risky Gamble; NATO downs second Iranian missile over Turkey; Iran may be activating sleeper cells

From Ian:

"Revolutions Are Impossible Before They Happen and Inevitable After They Happen"
Prof. Ali M. Ansari, 58, is a historian at Scotland's University of St. Andrews, where he directs the Institute for Iranian Studies. He says, "I'm a firm believer in what Hannah Arendt says: Revolutions are impossible before they happen and inevitable after they happen."

Inside Iran, "the vast majority of people are struggling. The political system is hated. The economic system isn't delivering." Salaries "no longer meet the basic needs of life. There's an environmental crisis - they've drained the water table. And now, they have an international crisis."

"People tell me, 'Oh, but it's strong and stable.' Well, it can't be that strong and stable because people are rebelling every few years, and on a scale the regime deems existential." Regime supporters, whom Ansari pegs at 10-20% of the population, "are convinced they are going to defeat the U.S. in this war. They are not going to do it."

In January, "the regime carried out such a mass slaughter that it actually proved counterproductive. If they had suppressed it with, say, 'only' the 3,117 dead that they claim, it might have succeeded." But having killed "10,000, 15,000, 20,000 of your own in the random manner that they did, and shooting people in hospital beds, it creates an anger that is difficult to suppress."

Under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-13), auditing bodies were dismantled and many state assets transferred to the IRGC. By one assessment, $800 billion in revenue went missing. "A lot of them in the IRGC made a lot of money and they don't want to lose it all." That's now a stronger motivation to fight than old revolutionary fervor.

When Iran's economy is in shambles, the reflex is to blame U.S. sanctions. "That doesn't explain why the Iranians have mismanaged their water. It doesn't tell you why, well before the real sanctions arrived in 2011-12, they were never able to get any foreign direct investment into the country....It's the corruption, the kleptocracy, the short-termism, the opaqueness, the lack of accountability, the uncertainty." Sanctions didn't befall Iran. They were a consequence of the regime's behavior.
Gulf states have a stark choice — and Trump must make them face it
Gulf leaders now face a stark choice, and Trump must frame it that way.

They can continue absorbing blows and hope Iran eventually runs out of missiles — or they can help shorten the war.

That means more than quiet coordination: It means building a formal, defense-focused regional security architecture that integrates air and missile defense with shared intelligence.

The Gulf states should have joined such a framework long ago.

In fact, the basic architecture already exists.

In 2024, when US CENTCOM guided an international defense effort to thwart Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel, multiple Arab states joined in.

Now, Washington should turn that ad-hoc cooperation into a permanent regional shield — linking Gulf radar networks, air defenses and early-warning systems with American and Israeli assets in the region.

That means real-time intelligence on Iranian launches, integrated air and missile defense coverage across Gulf airspace, and joint command centers capable of intercepting threats.

The payoff would be immediate.

It would turn today’s patchwork of national defenses into a single protective umbrella over the Gulf, freeing American forces now defending Gulf skies to focus on the source of the danger.

It would send Tehran a message that the Gulf is part of a coordinated security bloc that won’t be intimidated by missile terror.

And if Iran continues to rain missiles and drones on Gulf cities, those same states may decide that defense is not enough — and that helping shut down the launchers is the fastest way to restore security.

Some Gulf leaders will hesitate, worrying that overt alignment with Washington or Jerusalem will spark domestic backlash and paint a target on their backs.

But last week proves equivocation doesn’t buy immunity.

The choice here is between a short, decisive confrontation and a prolonged cycle of bombardment that erodes stability.

What do you think? Post a comment.

Trump should make this clear to his Arab partners: Iran has chosen to target you.

The path to security is not to distance yourself from Washington, but coordinated action that eliminates the common threat.
Mark Dubowitz: Israel Didn't Drag the U.S. into War with Iran - They Enabled Us to Fight It Smarter and Faster
A dangerous lie has taken hold in Washington: that Israel somehow pressured the U.S. into war with Iran. Both President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio have said this is wrong. Rubio said the U.S. faced "a threat that was untenable."

Iran has spent years building nuclear weapons, developing long-range ballistic missiles, and encircling Israel with a terror army stretching from Lebanon to Gaza to Yemen. It has fired ballistic missiles directly at Israeli civilians. No Israeli government could ignore that. Jerusalem's decision to join a combined American-Israeli operation targeting Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities drew near-universal support across Israel's political spectrum. It was a national security imperative.

When Netanyahu met Trump at Mar-a-Lago last December, the president had already green-lighted an Israeli strike on Iran's missile infrastructure. When they met again at the White House, Washington knew exactly what was coming and decided to lead the war. The claim that Israel pressured the U.S. president into war is not just factually hollow - it veers dangerously close to antisemitic fringe narratives.

But the bigger point that keeps getting buried is that Iran's missiles and nuclear program and terror are America's problem. They are being fired right now at U.S. forces, American bases, our embassies, and our Gulf Arab allies. Iran is actively developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could one day reach the American homeland. Dismantling that regime's nuclear, missile, and terror infrastructure is core American national security.

Israel didn't drag us into this war. It enabled us to fight it smarter, faster, and at far less cost than we ever could have alone.
To Defend the Abraham Accords, Trump Must First Defend the UAE
The Trump administration needs to pay close attention: The UAE is not merely another Gulf monarchy, another energy partner. It is one of the clearest examples in the Arab world of a country that deliberately chose modernization over ideological stagnation and development over the old politics of grievance.... This choice is precisely what makes it so important — and precisely what makes it so threatening to the forces that thrive on disorder.

The UAE... demonstrated that sovereignty can be defended without fanaticism, and that prosperity can be built through peace rather than perpetual war. This is why attacks on the UAE are not merely attacks on a country. They are attacks on a model for peace.

President Donald Trump no doubt sees this with clarity: his extraordinary Abraham Accords remain one of the defining strategic achievements not only of the century but of history.

Defending the UAE, therefore, is entirely consistent with a hard-headed American strategy. America did not help broker the Abraham Accords only to watch their boldest Arab partner become an exposed target. A serious policy... requires seriousness: tighter intelligence coordination, stronger integrated air and missile defense, firmer deterrence against Iranian aggression and proxy warfare, and unmistakable public clarity that the United States forcefully stands by the states that choose peace over terror and an alliance with the US over revolutionary blackmail. That is not charity toward Abu Dhabi. It is a defense of American interests, and a regional balance that works in America's favor.


Benny Morris: Iran’s Risky Gamble
None of this is new. But what is new is the near-simultaneous announcement by the Lebanese government deeming all Hezbollah military activity illegal and the arrest of 26 armed Hezbollah operatives at Lebanese national army roadblocks. Then, after Israel ordered all Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers, who had been training and arming Hezbollah for decades, to leave Lebanon on pain of death, the Lebanese government ordered them out, announcing that henceforward all Iranians will require visas to enter the country. In effect, Iranians and Iranian funds for Hezbollah are now barred from Lebanon. Although the Beirut government has been unhappy with Hezbollah and Iranian interference in internal Lebanese affairs for decades, this is the first time it has directly challenged Hezbollah or Iran. On Saturday, Israeli jets struck a suite in a downtown Beirut hotel reportedly housing operatives of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.

Iran responded by announcing that if Israel bombs the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, which has often served as a base of operations for IRGC officers, it will target Israel’s embassies worldwide, as well as the Dimona nuclear plant in southern Israel, where the Jewish state reportedly produces its nuclear weapons.

Over the past few days, the Lebanese Christian and Sunni publics, who together form the bulk of the country’s population, have been outspoken in their condemnations of Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into a destructive war contrary to the country’s interests. And many Lebanese Shi’ites, including the group’s senior leader, Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, have joined the chorus of disapproval. Berri has now dissociated his Amal Party from its rival, Hezbollah. In the past, he routinely supported the Islamist organisation.

It is possible that the IDF will launch the two to three divisions that are strung out along Israel’s northern border and occupy all of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. But many Israeli experts oppose the permanent occupation of southern Lebanon and the establishment of a new “security zone,” pointing out that when Israel tried this in the 1980s and ’90s, it had to counter an ultimately successful Hezbollah guerrilla/terrorist campaign that cost hundreds of Israeli lives before the IDF withdrew to the Israeli border in 2000. This time around, Hezbollah rockets, mortar bombs, and anti-tank missiles have already injured more than a dozen IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon. Defeating Hezbollah in the region is going to be no walk in the park. During the Israeli–Hezbollah clashes of 2023–24, Hezbollah’s Kornet anti-tank missiles, which have a range of 5–10 kilometres, proved very effective.

But what is now unfolding in Lebanon is a pincer movement in which Hezbollah, which can no longer rely on material aid from the beleaguered regime in Tehran, is caught between a rock and a hard place, being assailed militarily from the south by Israel and politically from within by the Lebanese government and people.
'It's going to finish pretty quickly' US President Donald Trump says of Operation Epic Fury
US President Donald Trump said Operation Epic Fury will not take much more time during his speech at the Republican Members' Issues Conference in Florida on Monday.

“We are going to have a much safer world as soon as it ends, and it's going to finish pretty quickly,” said Trump, raising hopes amid a war entering its second week.

The US president assured that the Iranian missile stock has been “largely knocked out,” along with drones and weapon factories.

“The missiles have gone largely knocked out, the drones have been knocked out, and now we are hitting where they make the drones. We know them all, and we are knocking the hell out of where they manufacture the drones,” he said.

According to the American president, 80% of Iranian missile launchers had already been destroyed up to that moment. “Iran was supposed to be this big, powerful country. We wrapped the hell out of them,” Trump noted.

Tehran has been a world threat for at least 47 years, Trump explained, saying that the current operation to defeat the Islamic Republic should have been done years ago.

Recently, the Middle Eastern state has been responsible for most of the terrorist activity in the region, making it imperative for the world to take care of the threat, he said. “Almost every act, whether it's Hamas or Hezbollah, no matter what, you take a look and it's Iran, or Iran sponsored,” Trump explained. He added that, even with the clear terrorist image of the country, “53 house democrats voted against a resolution affirming that Iran remains the world's number one state sponsor of terror.”

'We are crushing the enemy'
After Operation Epic Fury left seven US soldiers dead, Trump went to the Dover Air Force Base on Saturday to honor the fallen and their families.

In his speech at the conference, the US president expressed his “eternal gratitude” to the families of “those great heroes.” At the end of the visit, Trump said, the people in grief told him to keep up with the operations in Iran. “They all said one thing to me: make sure you win, sir, make sure you win.”

Trump noted that the current situation in the Islamic Republic shows good news, as he affirmed that “all” terrorist leaders, including the new ones chosen to assume power after the former ones died, have been eliminated. “We had leaders, and they are gone, then we had new leaders, and they are gone [...] we will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated,” he said.

Regarding the partnership with Israel, responsible for Operation Roaring Lion, the American leader said that together with Netanyahu, “we are crushing the enemy, in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force.”


Jake Simons: Iran's new hardline leader proves why the war was necessary in the first place
Since the commencement of the war, we have seen a display of irrational and ill-thought-out behaviour from the regime that has left many Western commentators shaking their heads in disbelief. Principal among these is the way it attacked its every ally; this appeared to be an attempt to pressure them to lobby Donald Trump to pull back, but – as should have been quite obvious – only succeeded in turning their few remaining friends against them.

Older hands, however, were not quite as surprised. What else did we expect from a regime that is founded not upon the principles of enlightened self-interest, or even self-interest, but the fulfilment of a fanatical dream of an apocalyptic war? I mean that literally: the hardcore ideologues within Iran’s leadership believe that war with the West will herald the end of times, during which an invisible Messiah figure called the Mahdi will rematerialise and lead Muslim troops to global victory.

At his side, there will supposedly be 313 generals, selected from among the most faithful, and once the planet is under control, it will be divided between them into 313 provinces. The new Ayatollah is as captivated by this dark fantasy as his father was, and equally as committed to the tripartite strategy of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and terror proxies that was constructed in its pursuit.

All of this demonstrates that even under the most severe of pressure, the Iranian regime is unable to compromise, reform or deviate in the slightest from the hellish path of destruction in which it had been investing for many years. This was a problem that was never going away and not getting any lighter, and the more time passed, the more of a threat it would become.

The hard truth, therefore, is that there were only two options: to exist in a constant state of low-level war, attacking the regime at intervals to tame its nuclear and ballistic programme and targeting its proxies like Hezbollah, or pull the rotten tooth once and for all. The former strategy involved the continual risk of missing a threat, and – with Trump’s time in office slowly running out – a closing political window to act freely.

If a Democrat takes office next time, what then? For these reasons, far from exposing the folly of Trump’s war, the ascension of Mojtaba only proves its tragic necessity.
Trump says ‘not happy’ with Iran’s new supreme leader, has replacement in mind
US President Donald Trump said Monday he was “not happy” with the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s next supreme leader, and asserted he had a replacement in mind, without saying who that was.

Israel, meanwhile, said the incoming head of the regime has hands “already stained with the bloodshed that defined his father’s rule.”

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei – whom the US and Israel assassinated in the opening salvo of their ongoing war against the Islamic Republic – was announced as Iran’s next supreme leader on Sunday.

The hardliner, whose election was hailed by Iran’s proxy forces throughout the Middle East, has not been seen in public since the start of the war.

State TV on Monday referred to the younger Khamenei as having already been wounded in the war. The anchors read reports describing him as “janbaz,” or injured by the enemy, in the “Ramadan war,” which is how media in Iran refer to the current conflict.

Even prior to Khamenei’s appointment, Israel had said it would target whoever succeeded the elder Khamenei.

Responding to his election, the Foreign Ministry wrote on X: “The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Mojtaba Khamenei’s hands are already stained with the bloodshed that defined his father’s rule. Another tyrant to continue the Iranian regime’s brutality.”

Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon likewise told reporters: “Changing the man at the top does not change the regime.”

He added: “The new leader, unfortunately, is more of the same ideology, the same radical ideas, and … anyone who will promote those radical ideas against us, we will target them, we will find them.”


Khaled Abu Toameh: A Dangerous Prelude to Trump's 'Board of Peace' in Gaza?
[T]he US has provided more than $230 million to support Lebanese security forces in their effort to disarm Hezbollah and all armed groups and to confiscate rockets and missiles.

Hezbollah, however, has since refused to disarm, rejecting Lebanese government directives and international pressure, specifically from the US and Israel, to relinquish its weapons.

The US and the rest of the international community were wrong to assume that Hezbollah would honor the ceasefire agreement with Israel. They were also wrong to assume that the terror organization would voluntarily give up its weapons or that the Lebanese government would take any real action to reassert its security control over Lebanon.

Over the past few months, US President Donald J. Trump has issued severe, repeated threats demanding the disarmament of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and, to a lesser extent, Hezbollah in Lebanon

It is time for the Trump administration and other international parties to understand that ceasefire agreements or threats will never convince the jihadists of Hezbollah and Hamas voluntarily to lay down their weapons.

Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) did not surrender their weapons or abandon their jihad against the West because of deals or threats. Both groups were crushed through the only language that they understand: force.

Given that no Arab or Islamic country is prepared to disarm Hezbollah or Hamas, the only two countries that have the will and ability to do so are, like it or not, Israel and the United States
Arab League blasts Iran attacks as grave threat
The Arab League Council on Sunday condemned the recent Iranian regime attacks on several Gulf Arab states as illegal, unprovoked and a grave threat to regional and international peace and security.

In an extraordinary ministerial session held virtually, the council backed the right of the targeted countries to self-defense, including possible military responses, and urged the United Nations Security Council to adopt a binding resolution condemning Tehran and compelling it to halt its assaults.

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit called the Iranian attacks “reckless” and a “massive strategic mistake,” according to AFP, while Egypt’s foreign minister called for the formation of a joint Arab force to protect Arab states’ sovereignty, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

The council denounced Iran’s strikes on civilian infrastructure and its threats to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, warning that any disruption would endanger global energy supplies.
Iran may be activating sleeper cells outside the country, alert says
The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as "an operational trigger" for "sleeper assets" outside the country, according to a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies.

The alert, reviewed by ABC News, cites "preliminary signals analysis" of a transmission "likely of Iranian origin" that was relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed in a U.S.-Israeli attack on Feb. 28.

The intercepted transmission was encoded and appeared to be destined for "clandestine recipients" who possess the encryption key, the kind of message intended to impart instructions to "covert operatives or sleeper assets" without the use of the internet or cellular networks.

It's possible the transmissions could "be intended to activate or provide instructions to prepositioned sleeper assets operating outside the originating country," the alert said. A crowd holding Iranian flags gathers during a demonstration in support of the nomination of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026.

"While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness," the alert said.


NATO downs second Iranian missile over Turkey; Erdogan says Iran has been warned
Turkey said on Monday that NATO air defenses shot down a second ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and had entered Turkish airspace, warning it will take any necessary steps against threats.

This marks the second Iranian ballistic missile in the last week that has targeted the south of Turkey, which is a NATO member and Iran’s neighbor. Ankara had warned Iran against attacking again on Saturday, but has not suggested it wants to formally call on alliance members for further protection.

“We once again emphasize that all necessary measures will be taken decisively and without hesitation against any threat directed at our country’s territory and airspace,” the Turkish Defense Ministry said, adding some ammunition parts had fallen in the southeastern province of Gaziantep, but there had been no casualties.

“We also reiterate that it is in everyone’s interest to heed Turkey’s warnings in this regard,” it said.

It was unclear where the missile was headed before it was intercepted by NATO defenses stationed in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

US air forces are stationed at the Incirlik base in southern Turkey, and there is a NATO radar base in Malatya province to the northeast that provides vital protection for the alliance. Ankara said fragments from the missile fell in empty fields in Gaziantep, which sits roughly between the two.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday evening that Turkey had delivered a stern message to Iran following the missile fire.

“The necessary warnings have been delivered to Iran,” said Erdogan after hosting an emergency cabinet meeting at his office in Ankara.

“Despite our repeated warnings, provocative steps continue to be taken against Turkey,” he said. “No action should be taken that casts a shadow over our thousand-year-old neighborly and brotherly bond.”


Seventh US service member dies due to Iranian attack
A U.S. service member has died from wounds sustained during the Iranian regime’s initial wave of attacks across the Middle East, raising the American death toll in “Operation Epic Fury” to seven, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday night.

The service member was critically wounded in a March 1 attack on U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia and died from those injuries on Saturday night, CENTCOM said.

Major combat operations in the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against the Iranian regime are ongoing. The military is withholding the service member’s identity until 24 hours after next-of-kin notification, in line with Pentagon policy.

Meanwhile, a U.S. National Guard soldier died on March 6 in Kuwait following a medical emergency, CENTCOM said on Sunday night. The health-related death remains under review, and further details will come from the National Guard Bureau.


IDF names second soldier KIA in Southern Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday afternoon released the name of a second soldier slain while fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon the previous day.

Staff Sgt. Or Demry, 20, from Moshav Liman in the Western Galilee, was a combat engineering heavy equipment operator in the 91st “Galilee” Division, the IDF said.

Demry was killed alongside Sgt. 1st Class Maher Khatar, 38, from the Golan Heights Druze village of Majdal Shams, whose name was already cleared for publication on Sunday.

In addition, a combat officer sustained light wounds in the attack and was evacuated for treatment. His family was informed, the IDF said.

Demry and Khatar were reportedly killed by terrorist mortar fire or an anti-tank missile during defensive operations at an IDF outpost, when a combat engineering force that included two D9 armored bulldozers went to extract a Puma combat engineering vehicle/armored personnel carrier that had become stuck.

During the rescue operation, one of the bulldozers was reportedly hit, possibly by a mortar shell that struck a fuel tank or by a missile, resulting in the deaths of the two soldiers.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, on Sunday evening expressed “heavy grief” over the deaths of the two men.


One killed, two wounded by Iranian missile barrage
One person was killed and two suffered severe wounds on Monday from Iranian missile fire that hit six sites in central Israel as air raid sirens alerted residents across the country throughout the day.

One man was killed and another critically wounded at a construction site in Yehud. A third man was seriously wounded in Or Yehuda.

Another rocket was fired a half hour later but no injuries were reported.

Sirens sounds again around 5:00 p.m. This time Hezbollah fired rockets from Lebanon. The launches were intercepted by Israel’s anti-missile systems.

Reports initially spoke of four lightly injured and treated by first responders, but later in the evening Shamir Medical Center said it was treating five people injured from rocket fragments from the city of Ramle.

The IDF released video showing the destruction of the launcher from which the shooting was carried out within minutes of the missile strike.

The IDF also reported late Monday afternoon that the Israeli Air Force completed a wave of attacks on dozens of Iranian regime targets, among them the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters responsible for unmanned aerial vehicles.

“The combined effort to further degrade the regime’s firing capabilities and defense capabilities continues at these moment, alongside the continued expansion of strikes on the ballistic-missile production infrastructure throughout Iran,” the IDF said in a statement.

Iranian missile attacks on the Jewish state have killed 14 people and injured more than 2,000 since the start of “Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury,” the Israeli-U.S. military action against the Iranian regime.

Six were injured, one seriously, in an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting Israel’s densely populated central region on Sunday afternoon.


Winston Marshall: British Colonel Breaks Down The Iran War and Its Consequences
In this episode of The Winston Marshall Show, I sit down with former British Army officer Richard Kemp to break down the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the legality of intervention, and Britain’s refusal to fully support its allies.

We examine whether military action against Iran is justified under international law, the doctrine of self defence, and the Responsibility to Protect. Colonel Kemp argues that Iran has been at war with the United States and Britain for decades through proxies, and that recent attacks on British sovereign territory in Cyprus change the legal and moral equation.

The conversation explores Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s stance on international law, Britain’s military readiness, and whether domestic Islamist pressure is shaping UK foreign policy. We discuss the perception of British weakness in Washington, the collapse of deterrence, and what this means for NATO, Russia, and China.

We also analyse the battlefield itself, from air superiority and ballistic missile strikes to the degradation of Iran’s military command, Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, and the possibility of regime change in Tehran. Finally, we examine the wider geopolitical consequences, including oil markets, China’s strategic calculations, Russia’s reliance on Iranian drones, and what this war could mean for Hamas and the future of Gaza.

A hard headed and wide ranging conversation about war, deterrence, sovereignty, and whether the West still has the will to defend itself.


Winston Marshall: The Secret Plan Behind Trump’s Iran War
In this episode of The Winston Marshall Show, I sit down with Israeli journalist and geopolitical analyst Haviv Rettig Gur to unpack the deeper forces behind the Iran war, the growing confrontation between the United States and China, and the shifting alliances across the Middle East.

We begin by addressing a claim circulating in American politics: that Israel “dragged” the United States into the conflict with Iran. Haviv explains why that narrative misunderstands the strategic reality, arguing that Iran had become a key component of China’s long-term geopolitical strategy against American power.

Our conversation explores how Iranian negotiations over its nuclear programme may have been used to buy time while missile capabilities and military infrastructure were expanded underground with Chinese assistance. We examine the intelligence operation that allegedly led to the attempted strike on Ali Khamenei, the strategic timing of American forces entering the region, and why the conflict escalated when it did.

From there, we widen the lens to the global chessboard: China’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and how Iran’s partnership with Beijing may have given China leverage over global energy routes in the event of a confrontation over Taiwan.

We also examine the unexpected alignment emerging across the Arab world, where several Gulf states increasingly view Iran as a destabilising revolutionary power rather than a partner against Israel. The discussion turns to what the Middle East might look like if the Iranian regime weakens or collapses, and whether regional power could shift toward countries like Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

Finally, we discuss the role of international law, the limits of global institutions, and whether the world is entering a new era of great-power politics defined less by legal frameworks and more by raw strategic power.

A wide-ranging conversation about war, geopolitics, and the emerging global order.


Ask Haviv Anything: Episode 96: The first war Israel fought in English, with Yaakov Katz
Military analyst Yaakov Katz joins the show to break down the "first Israeli war fought in English" -- a total merger of Israeli and American military might against Iran. From the high-stakes testing of futuristic US weapon systems designed to intimidate China to the "criminal negligence" of Israel's failed PR strategy, Katz exposes how this conflict is a global chess match where the target isn't just Tehran, but the entire world order.

This episode is sponsored by an anonymous donor who wishes to recognize the staff and scientists of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel. In June of last year, the Weizmann Institute was hit directly by two ballistic missiles from Iran. Over 60 laboratories were destroyed. In true Israeli fashion, scientists in the unaffected part of the campus opened their labs to their colleagues and doubled up and tripled up so that work could continue relatively uninterrupted. The Weizmann Institute exemplifies collaboration at its best which is, after all, the secret sauce of the State of Israel.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the Conflict
03:08 The Current State of the War
05:34 America's Military Showcase
08:28 Missile Capabilities vs. Air Force
11:38 Israel's Strategic Communication Failures
13:19 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare
15:51 Victory Conditions in the Iran War
27:16 The Quest for Regime Change in Iran
31:30 Military Strategies and Security Perspectives
34:18 The Paranoia of the Iranian Regime
36:22 The Role of the U.S. in Iranian Affairs
39:26 Iran's Survival Strategies and Internal Dynamics
42:50 The Interceptor Dilemma and Military Competence
47:40 The Need for Regime Change vs. Ongoing Conflict
49:17 Geopolitical Implications: U.S.-China Relations
53:09 Optimism Amidst Chaos: The Future of Israel and Iran


Ben Shapiro: Who Are The Kurds?

Commentary Podcast: Manufacturing Dissent
Today we discuss the media's eagerness to declare the Iran war a failure a mere eight days into the conflict, the failed IED attack on protesters in New York City, and Zohran Mamdani's wife's online support for the October 7 attack. Plus, John recommends the film It Was Just An Accident by Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi.


Yishai Fleisher: EXPERT: Israel has REPLACED the UK as America's Fighting Partner
What are the International Reactions and Pressures to the US/Israel War with Iran?
NEW Interview with Int'l Law Prof. Eugene Kontorovich, expert on the Israel-Arab conflict.

[00:00] Intro: The shift in global partnerships and Israel as America's primary partner.
[00:26] Introduction of Professor Eugene Kontorovich and his background in international law.
[01:42] Analysis of U.S. domestic reactions to the war and partisan divides.
[02:39] Global and progressive reactions to the Iranian people and the Iranian regime.
[03:58] The UK’s historical role vs. its current position in the conflict.
[05:52] Discussion on Israel's projection of military force and shifting world power dynamics.
[07:32] Exploring the "bigger picture": Is this a proxy war involving China?
[09:23] The history of U.S.-Israel alliances and the role of the Soviet Union.
[11:18] Geopolitical benefits for the U.S. and the personal motivations behind the conflict.
[13:04] The concept of "National Greatness" vs. Western self-loathing.
[15:56] Reaction to clips of the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister on failed diplomacy.
[20:15] Analysis of the Iranian regime's expectations and missile programs.
[23:00] Critique of Governor Gavin Newsom's comments on Prime Minister Netanyahu.
[25:43] Discussion on the perception of Israel as a "victim" vs. a powerful state.
[28:03] Explaining the Israeli Supreme Court reform and the American model.
[29:56] Review of Danny Danon’s UN speech and Iranian missile strikes on Arab nations.
[33:01] The end of traditional Arab-Israeli enmity and the role of "Liberation Nation."
[35:58] The current status of Iranian proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
[38:00] Closing remarks: Transitioning from fighting to building and community updates.


Call me Back: Why Are Liberals Against Liberation? – with Elica Le Bon
How did the oppressive Ayatollah regime convince the Western left that they’re the victims?

Dan speaks with Iranian-American lawyer and activist Elica Le Bon about the ideological narratives that form (and distort) the West’s reaction to the Iran war. Le Bon explains the deep divide between the Iranian people and the Islamic regime, the cycles of protests and repression, the imperialist roots of the regime’s long-standing obsession with Israel, and the Marxist prism through which the Western left understands the conflict.

In this episode:
06:30 – Elica Le Bon’s family story and the legacy of the 1979 revolution
07:45 – Life under the Islamic regime and the experience of repression
11:05 – The gap between the Iranian people and the regime ruling them
14:42 – Why the Iranian regime sees Israel as central to its ideology
20:32 – How ideological narratives in the West shape perceptions of the war
23:42 – The “mind virus” of anti-Western and anti-Zionist thinking
26:46 – Protest movements inside Iran and the risks people face
31:04 – What a post-regime Iran could mean for the Middle East and the world




Reconstructing Minab: How Media “Verified” the Iran School Strike Without Independent Access
Asymmetry in Verification Standards
The Minab coverage also raises a broader question about consistency in how evidence is treated.

In reporting on Israeli military operations, news outlets frequently emphasize the limits of available information, noting when claims cannot be independently verified or when casualty figures originate from official sources.

Such caveats reflect awareness of the challenges involved in reporting from conflict zones.

In the Minab case, casualty figures originating in a tightly controlled Iranian media environment circulated widely before comparable scrutiny was applied to the visual record supporting them.

The result was an unusual sequence in which numbers spread quickly while independent visual confirmation remained limited.

A Wider Context
The contrast with other events inside Iran is also notable.

Earlier this year, reports of large scale violence against Iranian civilians circulated widely among activists and human rights organizations. Yet independent imagery from those incidents appeared far more limited in international coverage.

The Minab strike, by contrast, generated immediate global headlines despite similar restrictions on access.

This difference illustrates how certain events can move rapidly through the global media ecosystem even when the evidentiary conditions surrounding them remain incomplete.

A New Model of Conflict Verification
The Minab case highlights a broader transformation in how wars are reported.

In many conflict zones, journalists cannot reach the scene of major events. Security restrictions, government controls, or battlefield conditions make independent access impossible.

When that happens, reporting often shifts toward a combination of methods:
• satellite imagery
• open source geolocation
• cross referenced video clips
• official investigations
• expert analysis

Together these techniques form a model sometimes described as remote verification.

It is a method increasingly used in conflicts around the world.

The Bottom Line
The reported strike in Minab illustrates how modern conflict reporting evolves when journalists cannot reach the scene directly.

The story did not unfold through independent observation alone. Instead it was reconstructed through satellite imagery, official statements, and cross referenced footage.

These methods can help illuminate events that would otherwise remain inaccessible.

But reconstruction is not the same as direct observation.

In an era defined by visual evidence, understanding how that evidence is gathered and what limits surround it remains essential for both journalists and readers.

Because in modern conflicts narratives are often shaped not only by what images show but also by how those images are obtained.

And when a major international story is built primarily from reconstruction rather than direct reporting, the process of verification becomes part of the story itself.




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Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



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