Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Elder of ZiyonMay God have mercy upon the martyr Hajj Qasem Soleimani. Three months before his martyrdom, at a meeting of the Khatam Al-Alanbiya HQ, with the commanders of the armed forces, he said: ...'I have assembled for you six armies outside of Iran's territory, and I have created a corridor 1,500km long and 1,000km wide, all the way to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In this corridor, there are six religiously devout and popular divisions. Any enemy that decides to fight against the Islamic Revolution, and against the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, will have to go through these six armies. It won't be able to do so.'One army is in Lebanon. It is called Hizbullah. Another army is in Palestine, and it is called Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. One army is in Syria. Another army is in Iraq, and is called the PMU, and another army is in Yemen and is called Ansar Allah [Houthis.]
'This has created deterrence in the service of our dear Iran. ...The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses two elements of power: The first is a powerful armed force which is ready for battle, and prepared to defend from within Iran's territory against any foreign invader, and the second is a regional force outside of Iran's territory.'
This was Iran's proxy strategy, and Israel managed to defeat it almost singlehandedly. The Shia Crescent is broken.
Hezbollah's military might and willingness to use it has been severely degraded, both by losing in its war last year with Israel and by the Lebanese government and people asserting control for the first time in decades over a foreign militia that is controlled by Iran. This contributed significantly to the fall of Syria. This allowed Israel to directly attack Iran without fear of Iran's proxies shooting tens of thousands of missiles at its population centers, which was the major limiting factor in the past. Israel's total decapitation of Iran's air defenses and complete control over Iran's skies dissuaded the Iraqi and Yemeni proxies from doing much more than rhetorical support for Iran. And the US showing its support for Israel in the most spectacular way dashed the hopes of Iran that the two countries were at loggerheads.
Against the backdrop of this speech, the accomplishments of the IDF are not only spectacular but miraculous. Israel made "shock and awe" a truly workable strategy: the previous tactic of ending wars in an ambiguous way only emboldened the Islamists, but Israel's ability to defeat their enemies not only militarily but psychologically has stunned the world: assassinating enemy leaders, showing unimagined intelligence incredible integration of intelligence and air power, unprecedented use of technology.
Not least is Israel's consistent defiance of the so-called experts and national leaders who thought that none of this was possible. Israel realizes that the diplomacy that the West insists is the only way to stop conflict is itself a weapon in the hands of actors like Iran. Israel's willingness to stand up to international pressure is a major part of its stunning victory.
October 7 was the low point in Israel's history. But it learned its lessons incredibly quickly.
And it now comes full circle: Hamas, while weakened, remained a threat as long as Iran could fund it and rebuild it. Whether the US will quietly work towards regime change or not (and Trump's suggestion that it might probably also had a major effect on Iran's accepting a ceasefire), Iran's position as a regional power has been dealt a major blow. Israel can be a little more flexible about Hamas continuing to exist in some form when it knows that it has no easy path to strengthen again. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have effectively lost their main patron, and it is not so clear that Turkey or Qatar will step in to fill that vacuum.
The ramifications of Iran's defeat go beyond Israel.
Russia had been a strategic and military partner with Iran, but it stayed out of this war. Iran's ability to provide Russia with drones has probably been severely impacted.
China had invested a great deal of its Belt and Road Initiative into the Shia Crescent, which projects its power to the Mediterranean. The new Syrian government, focused on reconstruction, has signaled openness to China but is hedging by seeking Western and Gulf aid, limiting BRI prospects in the near term. China also gets much of its oil from Iran at a discount, although that does not seem to be in jeopardy at this moment. China, by concentrating on economic soft power, is much more adaptable to new circumstances. I expect China to put a great deal of effort into spying on Israel to try to steal Israel's military technology it has used in these wars and to defend itself against those technologies. Israel's military victories make authoritarian regimes nervous.
The biggest wildcard is the Gulf states. While they have been hedging their bets between Iran and the West, between the whiplash in policy changes from Bush to Obama to Trump to Biden to Trump, the tend to gravitate towards the "strong horse" and that is clearly Israel and the US, despite domestic opposition to Israel. I am not sure Saudi Arabia will rush into the Abraham Accords. While Gulf states may deepen under-the-radar ties with Israel, their hedging - balancing U.S. security with Chinese economic partnerships - will shape their response and influence Russia and China’s regional strategies.
Israel's achievement are remarkable. Donald Trump's instincts to stay away from foreign entanglements means that Israel, whether it wants to be or not, is now the unquestioned regional superpower. Let's hope that its diplomatic moves in the coming months and years are as brilliant as its military moves have been.
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