Sunday, September 01, 2019
Elder of Ziyon
For the past week, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been threatening Israel with an attack as retaliation for last weekend's IDF attack against Hezbollah targets in Syria, and, reportedly, in Lebanon.
What is the point of such retaliation? It is purely to restore Hezbollah's honor. it serves no strategic interest, and in fact could easily escalate into something Hezbollah doesn't want. But the Arab concept of honor is so strong that logic is not important - the shame of being attacked is too great to go unanswered.
Unlike most of the West, the IDF understands Hezbollah's honor.shame dynamic. And it devised s plan to use it against them.
This morning, Hezbollah claimed that it hit an IDF patrol and killed or injured at least two soldiers. It based this on its own pbservations, which may have included this video apparently taken from Lebanon:
#Israel Air Force S-70A-55 Yanshuf-3 helicopter evacuating two #IDF soldiers who were wounded during #Hezbollah's attack. pic.twitter.com/vnq03Y5JeC— دودول طلا (@LievanTem) September 1, 2019
But it was all a ruse. The IDF faked blood on the soldiers' shirts, faked an evacuation and faked a helicopter taking them to the hospital.
The #IDF's deception operation: The helicopter didn't evacuate actually-injured soldiers as the entire exercise was planned in advance as a trick aiming to convince #Hezbollah that it succeeded in harming IDF troops: @RoySharon11 | #Israel #Lebanonpic.twitter.com/ZDjy5dSzxE— Hezbollah Watch® (@HezbollahWatch) September 1, 2019
The obvious question is, why admit to the trick? Won't Hezbollah want to attack again once it finds out? Doesn't it cancel the advantage?
But that logic doesn't work in an honor/shame universe.
Hezbollah already announced it achieved its objectives of successfully attacking the IDF and injuring soldiers. It said "the group of the martyrs Hassan Zbeeb and Yasser Daher destroyed a military vehicle on the road of the Avivim barracks, killing and wounding those who were inside" the vehicle. It would be shameful for Hezbollah to admit that it was tricked, and therefore it won't say a word further about it. If it attacks again as a response to last weekend's strikes, it is tacitly admitting that its first attack did not kill anyone as they claimed - and that would be shameful!
So, in this case, the IDF was a step ahead of Hezbollah. It appears it may have even placed the empty vehicle there just to attract fire, making a calculated risk that Hezbollah won't attack the actor medics and helicopter - which would also be shameful.
Understanding how the enemy thinks is a huge advantage in warfare. In this case, Israel seems to have done it perfectly, in a way that saves lives on both sides of the Blue Line.
