10/03 Links P1: The Arab Springs Big Winner, Egypt Planning Gaza Strikes?, Dalal Mughrabi Ping Pong

From Ian:

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The Real Big Winner of the Arab Spring

Finally, analysts tend to overlook the most important factor: Israel’s overwhelming military superiority. The Arab states have fought four major wars against the Jewish state, all won convincingly by Israel. In the intervening 40 years, the IDF has only gotten stronger while Arab armies have petrified. Israel currently maintains a massive qualitative edge over its potential enemies, honed over decades of battle experience. The Egyptian and Syrian armies, untested since the Yom Kippur War, are not even capable of controlling their own territories, while Jordan has not gone to war since 1967. The Arab states know full well that they would be decimated in any large-scale conflict with the Jewish state.
Obviously, none of this should be taken as cause for sanguinity with regard to the long-term threats to Israel’s survival and prosperity. But the Arab Spring has compromised strategic rivals and devastated a number of these threats. While its neighbors are roiled by chaos and violence, Israel remains strong. By exercising restraint, keeping a low profile, and strengthening its defenses, Israel is in a better position now than it was several years ago. In fact, Israel may be the only real long-term winner of the Arab Spring.

JCPA: After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line?

Indeed, Egypt has finally decided to tackle the security threat from the Sinai Peninsula, a region that was nearly under the control of jihadist organizations with links to al-Qaeda and Hamas. The Egyptian army has massed troops, deployed combat helicopters, dispatched navy patrol boats, and is carrying out coordinated attacks against concentrations of terrorists in Sinai.
The Egyptian army’s ultimate goal is clear: to recover Egypt’s sovereignty in Sinai. In order to succeed in its mission, the Egyptian supreme command understands that it must neutralize Hamas, which it sees as partly responsible for the security situation in Sinai during the last few years.

Egypt drafts plans to launch strikes on Gaza terror targets

Military sources told the Palestinian Ma’an news agency that the new Egyptian plans call for attacks on specific targets in the Strip, and that Egyptian unmanned aerial vehicles recently overflew the territory and photographed a number of sites.
According to the report, the UAVs’ mission was focused on Rafah and Khan Yunis, cities along the Gaza Strip’s southern border with Egypt.
These statements were made following Egypt’s Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy’s warning his country could take military action against Gaza terrorist groups last week. The warning was issued in light of continuous attacks against the Egyptian army in Sinai, particularly in the areas of Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid, also adjacent to the Gaza border.

Soldier’s killer still at large 10 days later

Nearly two weeks after Kobi’s death, however, the shooter remains at large. According to the Maariv daily, the IDF and Shin Bet security service believe the gunman acted on his own — and have no real leads in the case. Among the indicators supporting this theory is the fact that no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack. The fact that the killer likely acted alone has made it harder to gather intelligence and crack the case, unnamed sources told the paper.

Jerusalem Councillor: Time to Stop Illegal Mosque Noise

Despite their many protests, residents of the Pisgat Ze'ev neighborhood of Jerusalem have still found no relief from the ongoing din made by mosque muezzins who issue the call to Muslim prayer at all hours of the day – and the night. Especially at issue is the first call to prayer of the morning that is made – very loudly – at dawn.

Arab Witness 'Lied' Over Cemetery Vandalism; Suspects Released

The four argued that they had been in the area only because they were walking to the mikvah (ritual bath), and that they had no connection to the vandalism.
“The only one who testified against us was the Arab man, a man we know who had a clear interest in doing us harm,” one of the suspects said Thursday morning, following his release.

PLO Flag Flies over Homesh

Palestinian Authority resident Arabs took over the town of Homesh on Thursday morning, just two weeks after a government order supported turning the Jewish community over to PA hands.
Pictures showed Arab men celebrating at the scene by waving PLO flags and holding up signs with what appeared to be anti-Semitic images, including a depiction of a religious Jew being speared through the head.
The men painted over the picture of a menorah on the local water tower that had been Homesh’s trademark, replacing it with PLO images and slogans in Arabic.

PMW: Terrorist Dalal Mughrabi glorified in ping pong tournament sponsored by Palestinian official Jibril Rajoub

On the same day that Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas spoke about the Palestinians' desire to live in peace with Israel and their "rejection of terrorism in all its forms," Fatah Central Committee member Jibril Rajoub, who also heads the Palestinian Olympic Committee, glorified terrorist Dalal Mughrabi.
Dalal Mughrabi led the most lethal terror attack in Israel's history in 1978, when she and other terrorists hijacked a bus and killed 37 civilians, 12 of them children.
Rajoub chose to sponsor "The Martyr Dalal Mughrabi Table Tennis Tournament." At the closing ceremony, Vice President of the Palestinian Table Tennis Association, Radwan Al-Sharif, honored terrorist Dalal Mughrabi, when he "mentioned the glorious deeds of hero Martyr Dalal Mughrabi."

Top minister: Makes sense for Israel, Arabs to cooperate on Iran

Israel has held a series of meetings with prominent figures from a number of Gulf and other Arab states in recent weeks in an attempt to muster a new alliance capable of blocking Iran’s drive toward nuclear weapons, Israel’s Channel 2 reported Wednesday. An Israeli minister said Thursday that it made sense for Israel and worried Arab states to work together, though he did not confirm the specifics of the report.
According to the report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been supervising a series of “intensive meetings” with representatives of these countries. One “high-ranking official” even came on a secret visit to Israel, the report said.

Israel no longer certain Obama would ever use force against Iran, Likud MK indicates

Speaking to The Times of Israel in New York in the wake of Netanyahu’s speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Hanegbi said “the most dramatic part” of the prime minister’s address was the passage in which he warned, “Israel will not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone.”
Why was this so dramatic, Hanegbi asked rhetorically? “Because it marked the first time it was said in public, and not behind closed doors, that Israel will act even if stands alone.”

Netanyahu: Ayatollah Khamenei ‘heads a cult’

Netanyahu dismissed the notion that Rouhani was freely elected, saying Iranians would topple the regime if they could.
“These people, the Iranian people, the majority of them are actually pro-Western,” he stated, adding, “But they don’t have that. They’re governed not by Rouhani, they’re governed by Ayatollah Khamenei. He heads a cult. That cult is wild in its ambitions and its aggression.”

New sanctions likely despite thaw in US-Iran ties

In July, the House approved tough new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector and other industries. The bill blacklists any business in Iran’s mining and construction sectors and commits the United States to the goal of ending all Iranian oil sales worldwide by 2015. It also builds on US penalties that went into effect last year that have cut Iran’s petroleum exports in half and left its economy in tatters. China, India and several other Asian nations continue to buy billions of dollars of Iranian oil each month, providing Tehran with much of the money it spends on its weapons and nuclear programs.
No bill would likely be finalized before November. That gives the administration at least several weeks to see whether Iran changes course under Rouhani.

Video: Testimony on Prison Conditions in Iran

In her first, full-length witness interview since her escape from Iran, former political prisoner Zaynab Bayazidi--a Kurdish women's rights and children's rights activist--describes her multiple arrests, interrogations and imprisonment in exile in Maragheh Prison in Iran. In her statement, Bayazidi explains in careful detail the substandard health and sanitation conditions in prison, sexually coercive practices in interrogation, suicide attempts of inmates, the treatment of children in prison, sexual abuse of female inmates, violence in prison and other prison circumstances and practices that she herself experienced or to which she was a first-hand witness.

Egypt Cancels all Flights, Tourism Ties with Iran

The announcement came Tuesday, with Egypt stating it has ordered an end to all tourism activities with Iran. These had increased considerably during the yearlong rule of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Whereas deposed Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi tried to improve relations with Iran, seeing it as a natural ally, the new regime is trying to distance itself from Tehran.

Egypt’s Liberals Can’t Get a Break. Will They Ever?

I came looking for the country’s beleaguered secular liberals, hoping to find out what they think about the difficult situation in which they and the people of Egypt now find themselves: Two years after the Egyptian revolution ended President Hosni Mubarak’s 30 years in power, the country’s liberals, who bitterly opposed Mubarak, are now largely aligned with another military-dominated regime.
Is this a betrayal of the revolution’s core principles, or the only way Egypt’s secular democrats can eventually triumph over the theocratic forces of the Muslim Brotherhood who seek to create a coercive sharia-based state? Are Egypt’s liberals simply rebooting their revolution after the failure of Morsi’s government, or is their tolerance of the new military-backed government a strategic error?

John Greyson and Tarek Loubani: Egypt considering murder charges against Canadians

For the first time, the Star is publishing a detailed list of the intended charges the authorities are pursuing against them. Similar charges are also being sought for 140 Egyptians scooped up during demonstrations in the heart of Cairo that left dozens dead.
The most serious allegations against the Canadians include murder, “intention to kill,” aiding and abetting murder, and “using explosives against the Azbakiya police station” in central Cairo. At least one of those allegations — murder — carries a potential death sentence in Egypt.

Islamist Group Tied to Obama Downplays Violence Against Coptic Christians

Dalia Moghaed, credited with helping President Obama draft his June 2009 Cairo speech about American relations with the Islamic world, recently downplayed attacks against Egypt’s Coptic Christians on a Facebook page.
More than 80 Coptic churches were burned by Brotherhood supporters after the Egyptian military’s crackdown last month on Muslim Brotherhood encampments in Cairo. A local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party appeared to sanction violence in retaliation for the Coptic Church’s backing of the Egyptian military.

Amnesty International accuses Turkey of gross rights violations

“The attempt to smash the Gezi Park protest movement involved a string of human rights violations on a huge scale,” Amnesty International’s expert on Turkey, Andrew Gardner, said. ”They include the wholesale denial of the right to peaceful assembly and violations of the rights to life, liberty and the freedom from torture and ill-treatment.”
Protests broke out at Gezi Park in June over government plans to redevelop Istanbul landmark Taksim Square and build a replica Ottoman-era military barracks at Gezi, one of the last green areas in the city. The public rallies then evolved into an outpouring of discontent with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which many have accused of becoming authoritarian, and spread to other cities in Turkey.

Daniel Pipes: U.S.-Turkey Partnership is a Gigantic Blunder

A headline declaring “U.S. and Turkey to Create Fund to Stem Extremism” may look like a parody headline but it’s the entirely serious title of a New York Times article by Eric Schmitt. Some details: John Kerry and Ahmet Davutoğlu announced recently at a meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum

Future says Hezbollah’s arms reason behind Lebanese emigration

Lebanon’s Future bloc said on Tuesday that non-state arms, in reference to Hezbollah’s weapons, are why the Lebanese people are emigrating from the country.
“The arms which are not under the state’s authority are the reason behind the Lebanese people’s emigration [legally] and illegally,” the Future bloc said in a statement issued following its weekly meeting in reference to the recent incident of the sinking of a boat carrying Lebanese asylum-seekers.
At least 29 Lebanese asylum-seekers are missing after their boat capsized off Indonesia on its way to Australia, the Lebanese Foreign Ministry said Saturday.

Hezbollah Withdraws 1,200 Troops from Syria

The fighters were sent in to help Assad retake the city of Qusair, near the border with Lebanon, which they did in early June. They were accused of murdering women and children during the fighting, which exacted a heavy toll on both sides.
Hebollah then redirected its efforts towards Homs, to help Assad’s troops retake that area, and intended to move on afterward to Aleppo.
However, instead of quickly retaking the area, the Hezbollah and Syrian soldiers, and their Iranian advisors, found themselves increasingly trapped in endless bloody skirmishes in the region. Not only did they not retake land from the rebels, but they found themselves suffering heavy losses.
The losses lead to increasing division within Hezbollah, with many criticizing the group’s head, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, for spending Hezbollah lives in a foreign country. Nasrallah's own brother Khader was among the dead.