Hezbollah successfully deterring the Lebanese army from disarming it by threatening civil war ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Friday, October 24, 2025

Hezbollah successfully deterring the Lebanese army from disarming it by threatening civil war

The Iran Update from Critical Threats analyzes what's been reported from Lebanon, and it is not good.

Hezbollah may have deterred the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) from disarming the group. A figure close to Saudi officials told Lebanese media on October 19 that Saudi Arabia has grown frustrated with the Lebanese government’s ”slowness” in implementing its Hezbollah disarmament plan and threatened to pull funding for the LAF, which suggests that Saudi Arabia has concerns about the government’s willingness to disarm Hezbollah on a reasonable timeline.

US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack stated on October 20 that the Lebanese government’s principle of monopolizing all weapons to the state remains more of an ”aspiration than [a] reality” due to the Lebanese government’s fear of civil unrest and Hezbollah’s political dominance.

Hezbollah officials, including Secretary General Naim Qassem, have continuously threatened to instigate armed conflict and anti-government protests since the Lebanese government agreed to disarm Hezbollah in August 2025. Hezbollah, for example, informed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and LAF Commander Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal in August 2025 that the Lebanese government’s implementation of its plan to disarm Hezbollah would cause confrontation. LAF and Lebanese officials have consistently raised concerns about conflict breaking out between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah during the disarmament process. Haykal previously told Lebanese Parliament Speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri that the LAF will not ”clash with a key component of the country,” likely referring to Hezbollah. LAF leadership and members of Lebanon’s security forces were also reportedly divided over their willingness to act against Hezbollah, according to unspecified sources speaking to Lebanese and Saudi media in August 2025.Hezbollah’s threats may have exacerbated Lebanese government officials' and security forces’ concerns about internal conflict, which may have deterred the Lebanese government from disarming Hezbollah.

Hezbollah was on the ropes. The people of Lebanon were angry at the party for dragging the country into a war with Israel to help Hamas. Their new leader does not have the respect and influence of Hassan Nasrallah. If the LAF had acted immediately and with authority, it could have disarmed Hezbollah and the Shiites could have done nothing about it because they claim they only act in the best interests of Lebanon.

But Hezbollah played an old game that still works: threats. They would not have started a civil war, but the mere threat was enough to force the Lebanese government to blink. And for every day it delays, it gets that much harder to implement the disarmament plan.

Even worse - the disarmament is not even happening in the South. There have been no reports of LAF raids on any active Hezbollah areas. Lebanon is implementing the other parts of the US proposal but ignoring the main one of becoming the monopoly of arms in Lebanon.

The irony is that Lebanon is complaining that Israel has not fully withdrawn and still attacks Hezbollah positions - but the entire reason Israel keeps attacking is because the Lebanese army isn't doing what it agreed to do. If Hezbollah was excised from south of the Litani River, the Trump administration would almost certainly pressure Israel to abandon its positions. (Not that I think they should, )

If Lebanon had done what it promised, Lebanon and Israel could have become allies. Instead, Lebanon's cowardice almost guarantees the next war.