How to explain the events of this weekend? Israel is taking a negotiating lesson from Trump. ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Sunday, March 02, 2025

How to explain the events of this weekend? Israel is taking a negotiating lesson from Trump.

Israel today decided to cut off all humanitarian aid to Gaza. This occurred on the heels of Israel saying it was willing to extend the ceasefire for six weeks.

What's going on?

Israel is playing hardball, taking a page from Donald Trump's book of how to negotiate.

Over the weekend, Israel offered to extend the ceasefire with Gaza according to parameters crafted by Donald Trump's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, which would have Hamas immediately release half the hostages and the bodies in exchange for a continued halt to fighting during Ramadan and Passover, about six weeks.

At the end of the period, if a permanent ceasefire is agreed upon, Hamas would release the remaining hostages.

Hamas rejected the terms, insisting that Phase 2 be implemented immediately and unconditionally.

Hamas' official position is that Phase 2 is mandated by the ceasefire agreement after Phase 1 completed. But it wasn't. Phase 2 was always contingent on both parties agreeing to its specific terms during Phase 1, which did not happen. Without that agreement, Phase 2 cannot start. Witkoff's plan is to extend Phase 1 and keep the ceasefire going.

But without an agreement, as of midnight Saturday night, the ceasefire is over.

Hamas is gambling, thinking that there is too much world pressure for Israel to continue not resuming the war and as well as to allow 600 trucks a day into Gaza as Phase 1 mandated. From Hamas' perspective, they have nothing to lose by insisting that Phase 2 begin and more Israeli concessions - mostly withdrawals that would ensure Hamas can fill the vacuum left by the IDF.

Israel, perhaps in coordination with the US, is saying that Hamas has a great deal to lose. If the ceasefire is over then Israel can decide to stop the aid and resume fighting.

Under the rules of war as stated in the Fourth Geneva Convention, siege warfare is legal. It needs to allow critical humanitarian aid with the explicit exception of when the aid would be diverted by, or improve the military efforts and economic posture of, the enemy - which is exactly how Hamas has used it for the past 16 months.

Since October 2023, after only ten days of war, Israel has been forced by the US to allow in humanitarian aid even though Hamas benefitted from it. As I noted in January 2024, that decision more than any other is what kept Hamas fighting and kept the war going. It could have ended within a couple of months without that pressure from the Biden administration.

Now Israel has support from a US that is willing to let it win.

This is the manifestation of Trump's message to Hamas two weeks ago that if they don't release all the hostages, all hell will break out.

Israel also extended and increased the IDF's option to call up reserves, from 320,000 to 400,000, at the same time. In addition, the US expedited the transfer of billions of dollars of weapons to Israel, a move that was not unnoticed by Hamas.

The message from Israel is clear: It is no longer hostages for prisoners and hostages for Israeli withdrawal - it is hostages if Hamas wants to avoid war and to continue to get aid. Hamas has a great deal to lose by not releasing more hostages.

As far as world pressure on Israel is concerned, the answer is simple: if the world cares so much about aid into Gaza, then pressure Hamas to release more hostages to get that aid. Israel played by the rules that it must provide aid and all it accomplished was extending a devastating war by over a year.

By changing the calculus of aid, Israel is also showing how hypocritical the international community is. They insist that Israel provide unconditional aid. Israel's response, now backed by the US, is that it would be happy to provide aid, but no longer unconditionally. The legal siege can be lifted in exchange for hostages.

Israel is now saying that it is Hamas' decision to keep human beings as hostages, therefore it is Hamas' decision to stop the aid. This puts the international community in a position of saying that they support Hamas keeping hostages more than they support Gazans receiving humanitarian aid.

This has been their position from the start. Israel is now making it explicit.

Without the Biden administration pressuring Israel, the war would have been over a long time ago.

Trump is allowing Israel to change the rules to what they should have been in October 2023.