Monday, January 27, 2025
Elder of Ziyon
How will the new Trump administration affect the Middle East?
Based on the first Trump administration and what we are seeing so far, this is my initial impression of the major factors that will affect US relations with the Arab world.
1. A transactional approach
It seems very clear that Trump is not interested in exporting US values or human rights in the Arab world. He sees every relationship as an opportunity to help the US financially. He will not condition arms sales to Saudi Arabia on anything but getting top dollar.
I am not so clear whether he prioritizes Israel's military superiority in the region when considering what weapons to sell to Israel's rivals. On the other hand, Trump's tendency to make decisions based on broad strokes and not sweating the details seems well aligned to Arab mentality. A Bidenesque approach where support for Israel is conditional makes the US look inconsistent and strengthens the hands of Israel's enemies.
2. The Strong Horse
This transactional approach supports the theory that (at least the leaders of) the Arab world are attracted towards the "strong horse" and will tend to naturally align with that perceived leader for their own interests. Trump is interested in a United States that projects strength and this will naturally keep the Arab world in the US camp.
3. Honor and Shame
Israel's existence remains the biggest source of shame for the Arab world. But Israel is highly aligned with the US and Trump supports Israel, so Arab leaders are not going to make it into an issue. They will continue to use anti-Israel rhetoric in public, to maintain the appearance of honor to their people, but their pragmatism outweighs their sense of shame at tacitly aligning with Israel.
Remember, there was a huge outcry at Trump moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, but in the end, there was no change at all in the Arab diplomatic posture towards the United States. One could argue that the US under Trump being strongly and unapologetically pro-Israel prompted the Abraham Accords. Only when they see daylight between the US and Israel do they return to their fantasies of destroying Israel.
4. Abraham Accords part 2
Trump will certainly try to extend the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, which is the big prize, and other Arab countries (like Oman) would fall into line along the way. The Saudis will try to gain symbolic concessions from Israel about Palestinians but in the end they want the same thing Trump does. Being on his side is more important than honor in this case. And ultimately, Israel and the Saudis are on the same side in most matters.
5. The Palestinian issue
It has been obvious for well over a decade that the larger Arab world is no longer interested in the Palestinian issue except as a rhetorical device. They poured billions into the Palestinian Authority and it remains as corrupt and as little interested in statehood as ever. Arab leaders, like Trump, no longer want to spend money on the Palestinians when there is no return on the dollar. Either the Palestinians realize this and accept compromise to achieve a state or they remain in stateless limbo forever. There is little indication that they even begin to understand how little the rest of the Arab world respects them, as they take the empty rhetoric at face value and wishful thinking.
In the end, the PA has a choice between becoming like the UAE or like Hamas, and they consistently choose Hamas.
6. A single bullet away from chaos
The biggest worry in all of these is the possibility of pro-US regimes falling and being replaced with Islamists who, for honor/shame reasons, cannot allow themselves to appear to accept Israel in any way.
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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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