Will Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 27? It appears unlikely, as Hezbollah vows to rebuild ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Will Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 27? It appears unlikely, as Hezbollah vows to rebuild

The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon requires Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon by January 27. So far, Israel is claiming that the Lebanese Armed Forces are not doing their part of ridding southern Lebanon of Hezbollah forces and weapons.

Last week, US negotiator Amos Hochstein insisted Israel will withdraw by the deadline, but more recent stories indicate that it may not.

Naharnet reports:

A meeting Monday of the ceasefire monitoring committee witnessed a negative atmosphere that does not indicate that Israel intends to withdraw from south Lebanon by the weekend, when the 60-day timeframe expires, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Tuesday.

“No statement was issued after the meeting,” the daily noted.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had announced overnight, during a TV interview, that the head of the ceasefire committee, U.S. major general Jasper Jeffers, had told him that “the Israeli withdrawal might be delayed for several days.”

An informed source meanwhile told al-Akhbar that the Israeli army “has complained that the Lebanese Army has refused to seize resistance assets from depots and homes, or to confiscate arms at a time Lebanese authorities are in a transitional phase, which prompted it to act on the ground by itself, as it did in al-Salhani, Wadi al-Slouki, Tallousa and Bani Hayyan.”

“The Israeli enemy has threatened through UNIFIL to bomb new sites suspected of containing resistance weapons should the (Lebanese) Army fail to raid them, while (Lebanese) military officials have refused to turn into a security force that works at the enemy’s instructions and clashes with residents,” the source said.

This sounds consistent with what has been happening during the past two months. When the LAF shows that it can take over an area and village, Israel withdraws, but it has gone slowly.

Israeli analyst Yoni ben Menachem wrote yesterday:

As things currently stand, the Lebanese army has deployed in the western sector of southern Lebanon, in the Naqoura area. The day before yesterday, the Lebanese army also deployed in the town of Bint Jbeil, but senior security officials doubt its ability to enforce the ceasefire agreement and withdraw Hezbollah forces from north of the Litani River, as stipulated in UN Resolution 1701.

The fear in the Lebanese political system is that Israel will not fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and will continue to hold several strategic points, which could reignite the fire in Lebanon and provide Hezbollah with the excuse that it is "defending Lebanon." Hezbollah has already begun vigorously rebuilding its military force, which was damaged in the war.

The expectation in Lebanon is that President Trump will prevent Israel from doing this and oblige it to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon according to the agreement.

The new Lebanese president Joseph Aoun said that only the Lebanese Army should have weapons, meaning Hezbollah should not. Hezbollah has indicated that it will maintain its army but north of the Litani River. It has been attempting to rebuild its military capabilities after being routed by Israel.

Meanwhile, a Hezbollah officer from the Radwan forces spoke anonymously with Al Arabiya and admitted that Israel inflicted major blows on the group and it would be difficult for it to reconstitute itself in the south:

He pointed out that the Israeli warplanes and drones were able to destroy the largest part of those [missile] sites, in addition to hundreds of tunnels in more than one border town in the south, some of which were close to reaching the edge of more than one Israeli settlement.

When asked whether Hezbollah is able to rebuild its capabilities again, especially after its presence in the south of the Litani River was prevented under the provisions of UN Resolution 1701, as well as not getting a weapons from Syria after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, he stressed that the matter had become difficult.

He said: “Things have become difficult for us, and yes, we misjudged the strength of Israel." However, he stressed that Hezbollah will rebuild again in the north of the Litani River and other areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut and Bekaa.

He also admitted that the pager attack was devastating to Hezbollah's military capacity:

The officer added that "the biggest blow Hezbollah suffered was the pagers operation that struck the arteries of its military and logistic. It paralyzed his military column after disabling about 3,000 of its cadres by injuring them in their faces, eyes and hands.”

Notice that he doesn't even pretend to claim that it was an attack on civilians as Hezbollah apologist in the West claim.