Friday, August 16, 2024
Elder of ZiyonIt is increasingly clear that Iran - and Hezbollah - really don't want to attack Israel, and are looking for a way out that would save face without exposing their own weaknesses.
The latest reason given was by a source close to Hezbollah, saying that the terror group doesn't want to be held accountable for disrupting the ceasefire talks in Doha or a potential deal.
Iran, sensitive to how weak it looks by not responding, has been spinning the lack of response into a type of response itself, claiming that by keeping Israel on edge it is accomplishing the same result. Here is the cover of an IRGC-linked magazine yesterday:
Nearly every article and quote has the same theme: Israel is a nervous wreck and Iran is winning without firing a shot.
The top headline is "The shadow of the planes" showing a Photoshop of a cowering Netanyahu. The quote says Israel's "fear of Iran's response has become more deadly" than the response itself. The article titles are "Hasty actions of Israel out of fear of Iran," "Western analysis of Israel's situation: waiting for death is harder than death itself," "Fear of Iran; Israeli Military Sources: Stop the Gaza War," "The United States struggled to save Israel from Hezbollah's response," and "Zionist expert: We are in a nerve-wracking situation."
This is all spin to detract from the previous eagerness to attack Israel all over Iranian media two weeks ago, and last week's claims that the delay was "tactical." The main IRNA Iranian news agency and the Iran Students News Agency barely have any articles about Israel on their Farsi front pages today - the drumbeats for war have all but disappeared. (Their English editions, as well as English language PressTV, are still filled with invective against Israel, since they are intended for a Western audience. )
It is also possible that the massive cyberattack against Iran's banking system was a subtle warning from Israel that it could seriously hurt Iran's economy without any missiles or bullets. Iran's economy is in a very precarious state and it wouldn't take much to bring it down. As much as Iran seeks revenge, it is still a rational actor and does not want to end up much weaker afterwards.
I still think there will be an Iranian response. Honor demands it. I can imagine one that is aimed at Israeli interests outside Israel itself, in a third country that is not a threat to Iran (like, say, Greece or Norway.) But as time goes on, Iran's already weak justification and apparent appetite for a large scale response goes further down.
