There is not much contradiction between Hezbollah and IDF statements on this morning's strikes. Where is the truth between them?

There is a science to figuring out the truth between competing press statements.

Both Israel and Hezbollah issue statements all the time, and both try to spin the statements in a way where they cannot be caught in a lie but where the message spins their actions as being successful.

This is what happened after this morning's strikes in Lebanon and Israel. The statements sound like they are diametrically opposed, until you read them carefully. 

The IDF statement, as Times of Israel reports:

“Before dawn, we identified Hezbollah preparations to carry out launches against the north and center [of Israel]. Some 100 Israeli Air Force fighter jets preemptively struck to remove the threats,” Hagari says.

“Hundreds of rocket launchers armed with thousands of launch barrels. Most of them were aimed at northern Israel. We also struck drones that were aimed at central Israel,” he says.

“Hezbollah planned to launch hundreds of rockets at the north of the country and drones at central [Israel]. We removed a larger threat, likely a future threat in some areas, with an emphasis on the rockets at northern Israel,” Hagari says, adding that the strikes took place in around 40 areas of southern Lebanon.

“We foiled most of Hezbollah’s planned attack, and we intercepted many of the threats launched at Israel,” he says.

Hezbollah released three separate statements, as its Al Mayadeen mouthpiece reports:

  The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon – Hezbollah launched an "initial response" to the assassination of Commander Martyr Fouad Shokor at dawn Sunday, on the anniversary of Imam Hussein's Arbaeen, by launching a large number of drones deep into the occupied Palestinian territories.

In a statement, the Resistance clarified that the attack targeted a strategic Israeli military site, adding that details about the specific target "will be disclosed at a later time."

Hezbollah released another statement that begins with a Quranic verse that states, "Indeed We shall take vengeance upon the guilty."

In its statement, Hezbollah confirmed that it had successfully completed the first phase of its response to the assassination of Martyr Shokor.

In this phase, Hezbollah targeted Israeli barracks and sites to facilitate the passage of attack drones towards their intended target deep within the occupied Palestinian territory. The drones successfully reached their destination as planned, according to the statement.

Secondly, the statement confirms that the number of Katyusha rockets fired exceeded 320, targeting enemy positions.

The statement concluded with a list of successful targets in the occupied Palestinian territory as part of the first phase of the response, which includes:

1. Meron Base

2. Naftali Ze'ev artillery position

3. Zaitoun Base

4. Zaoura artillery positions

5. Al-Sahel Base

6. Kila Barracks in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights

7. U.F. barracks in the Syrian Golan Heights

8. Nafah Base in the Syrian Golan Heights

9. Yardan Base in the Syrian Golan Heights

10. Ein Zivitim Base

11. Ramot Naftali Base

In the wake of the military strikes, Hezbollah issued a third statement declaring that it had successfully launched all its attack drones at the designated times from their respective launch sites. The drones crossed the Lebanese-Palestinian border, targeting their intended objectives through multiple routes.

Hezbollah dismissed claims by the Israeli occupation that it had preemptively disrupted the operation and neutralized the attack as baseless and contrary to the facts on the ground. These claims will be addressed in detail later in a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose date will be set later on Sunday, the statement added.

Hezbollah claims that it targeted multiple specific sites in the north of Israel, including with hundreds of rockets, to support the main attack towards a presumably high value military site in central Israel. Israel's statements do not deny that, saying that "most" of Hezbollah's attack was thwarted - but not all. 

Israel says it hit some, not all, of the drones aimed at central Israel. 

Hezbollah denies that Israel's pre-emptive airstrikes affected their plans, while the Israeli statement indicated that those strikes were aimed at "likely a future threat." 

So far, they are not contradicting each other.

It is possible that Hezbollah aimed drones at multiple sites in Israel, including Tel Aviv, and Israel successfully stopped most of them, but not all. 

If we are to believe both sets of statements, perhaps a Hezbollah drone did manage to hit a single high value - or symbolic - military site in central Israel but at this point we do not know how much, if any, damage it may have inflicted, or how many sites it targeted. Hezbollah is now claiming only a single target, but that doesn't preclude that it originally tried for multiple targets and knows it failed to hit most of them.

 Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will presumably mention the target and declare victory in this phase 1 of Hezbollah's attack this afternoon.

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