Thursday, August 22, 2024
Elder of ZiyonIt's pretty obvious at this point that Iran is very happy with open-ended threats against Israel. It causes airlines to suspend flights, it affects the Israeli stock market (although is actually higher now than it was immediately after Haniyeh's death,) it causes fear among Israelis.
But most importantly, it enhances Iran's sense of "honor."
Western and Arab nations are trying very hard to either bribe or cajole Iran it to avoid an escalation. Delegations are dispatched, phone calls are made, and Iran is acting as the ruler whom everyone must flatter and defend. Iran's fearmongering is the center of world attention.
The West thinks it understands Iran and the larger Muslim mindset of honor. They believe that shaming a country like Iran may bring about a violent response, so they subscribe to Iran's gameplan: avoid condemning Iran at all costs.
The result is that Iran now has all the benefits of "honor" by the world and none of the costs of being shamed. And this fits in quite well with Iran's strategy of menacing Israel indefinitely with a credible threat.
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The latest example comes from Iran's UN representative Amir Saeid Iravani, who told the world that Iran's attack on Israel will be as surprising as possible. “The timing … of Iran’s response will be meticulously orchestrated to ensure that it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise,” he said, implying that Iran might even mount a ground invasion while Israel is defending itself from the air.
This is a UN representative publicly telling the world that Iran plans to attack another UN state. and he has no fears that the UN will condemn, deplore or censure him for direct threats against another member state.
Because no one wants to "shame" Iran.
That refusal to say a negative word about Iran enhances Iran's perceived "honor." It shows that the world is afraid of the Islamic Republic and that it defers to the terror-supporting state.
Iran regards this as more of a victory than their April attack in Israel was. And they can keep it up indefinitely, by making new threats every day or two.
Instead of a clear message to Iran that attacking Israel would result in increased isolation and sanctions, the response is begging them to limit the response to only kill an acceptable number of Jews that they can then warn Israel against a response of their own.
Significantly, Iranian media is no longer obsessed with Israel and with the impending response. All their messaging is to the world at large to keep enhancing their honor, but not to their own people.
Once again, when the world doesn't truly understand the honor/shame dynamic, everyone does the exact wrong thing. Iran is reaping the benefits without the slightest cost.
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