Another rumored Palestinian election. (I'll believe it when it happens.)

The latest date for a Palestinian election is now rumored to be in May:

 A member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, Abdullah Abdullah, spoke about expectations regarding the date of President Mahmoud Abbas issuing the presidential decree to hold the Palestinian elections.

Abdullah expected, in a radio interview with Sawt al-Watan, that President Mahmoud Abbas will issue a presidential decree, before the end of this month, and thus the elections will be held in the middle of next May, that is, after the next Ramadan.

Abdullah indicated that after the presidential decree is issued for the elections, there will be a meeting of the secretaries-general again, to discuss the roadmap during the next phase.

This happened after the Hamas leader sent a letter to Abbas saying he agreed to have elections.

I am  a bit skeptical.

In March 2009, the PLO announced elections by January 2010. They never happened.

In February 2011, the PLO announced elections before September of that year. They never happened.

In November 2011, elections were announced for the following May. They never happened.

 In April 2014, Hamas and Fatah announced a unity government that would then arrange elections within six months. They never happened. 

In November 2019, reports came out of likely Palestinian elections in February 2020. Never happened.

Last September, there were news headlines about Hamas and Fatah holding elections, scheduled for February or March 2021. That fell apart.

Just like Fatah and Hamas unity, elections are one of those things that are in the news fairly often, and so far nothing can be shown for it.

So if you bet against Palestinian elections or Fatah/Hamas unity, you will probably win. 

Even this supposed May election is unclear - are they legislative? Are they for president? Are they going to be held in Gaza at the same time as the West Bank?

The track record of two warring groups, each of whom do not want to lose their hold on power, makes any new elections or unification highly unlikely.

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