One of the expected benefits of the Abraham Accord is that Arab support for
the Palestinian Authority, especially financial support, would no longer be
automatic. Ideally, that would pave the way towards the Palestinian leadership
realizing the need to change strategy and actually show up at the negotiating
table.
The Palestinian government's funding dropped by half with respect to foreign
aid in the first seven months of the year, from $500 million in 2019 to $255
million in 2020, dropping in Arab aid during the same period by 85% – from
$267 million in 2019 to $38 million in 2020.
Part of the drop in Arab aid is because of Covid, but part of it is because
Trump has explicitly asked the wealthier Arab countries not to send money to
the Palestinian government.
But if developments in the Arab world are tending towards bigger financial
problems for the PA, there are other developments
outside of the Middle East that are promising even more problems.
We are long past the time when diplomats and the media threatened Israel with
isolation if they did not make the 'necessary' unilateral concessions to the
Palestinian Arabs. Instead, between Israel's various technological and medical
advances combined with Netanyahu's diplomacy, Israel is making headway in
international relations that seem to dwarf the successes that Abbas made not
so long ago.
o In 2016, Benjamin Netanyahu became the first Israeli
prime minister in decades to travel to East Africa, where he met with leaders in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda
o In 2017, he became Israel’s first prime
minister to visit South America
o Israel has expanded trade relations in east Asia
o Netanyahu has established closer ties with Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, in 2017, became the first Indian prime
minister to visit Israel.
o Israel now has better relations with all 5 permanent
members of the UN Security Council
(China, France, Russian Federation, the UK, and the US) than at any time in
its history
o MASHAV, Israel’s international development agency, has
programs in medicine, agriculture and education in developing countries
around the world
Miller's point is the possible implications this wave of Israel's diplomatic
successes could have for Abbas and the Palestinian Authority:
It may be the case that some of these countries see cooperation with Jerusalem
as a way to stay in Washington’s good graces, especially during the Trump
years. But it also suggests that
much of the international community is no longer prepared to tie their own
interests to the Palestinian cause
and that they see real advantage in dealing with and benefiting from Israel’s
technology and expertise.
Even in the EU, there are signs that Europe is waking up to how their money is
being used. According to that Jerusalem Post article:
Last June, European Parliamentarians called for a thorough investigation into
how European taxpayers’ money is ending up in the hands of Palestinian
terrorists, insisting that any loopholes in the law through which the money is
slipping must be closed.
Added to that is
the new economic agreement between Serbia and Kosova
-- with Serbia saying it would move its embassy to Jerusalem, and Kosovo
(which is Muslim) ready to establish diplomatic ties. Both
Serbia
and Kosovo are working towards acceptance into the EU. If successful, they would
join countries such as Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia
who have been sympathetic to Israel.
This could be important, because joint statements issued by the European Union
in the name of EU member states require unanimous agreement. Back in
February, when the EU was looking for unanimous agreement on condemning Trump's
peace plan -- Hungary and Austria, among others, blocked the move. As a
result, instead of a powerful condemnation, the EU was reduced to a
statement by High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell -- alone.
That could further undercut the EU's support for the PA.
And Trump still has a month to go till the November elections.
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