Wednesday, August 12, 2026

08/11 Links Pt1: Want Peace with Israel? Lift the Siege; Benny Morris: A Mid-War Assessment; Mossad ‘toured’ Fordow many times, bombing was ‘fulfillment of all dreams'

From Ian:

Want Peace with Israel? Lift the Siege
One accusation repeated again and again is that Israel is aggressive. But the opposite is true. Israel is denied a peace it has pursued since its establishment in 1948.

The truth is that Israel is surrounded by an explicit desire to erase it, and remaining constantly on guard is what it must do to survive.

On Friday, a defense pact was signed among Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, champions of Sunni Islam.

It may appear that they want to defend themselves against Shi'ite Iran, but no. Pakistan's defense minister, Khawaja Asif, said: "In the context of Israel, all Muslim countries must unite," describing Israel as "a threat to the entire Muslim world" and calling for a "united military front" against it.

Turkish President Erdogan has made hatred of Israel - and the ambition to take control of Jerusalem - a banner of his politics.
Benny Morris: A Mid-War Assessment
The Islamist war on the Jewish state, which began with the Palestinian Hamas assault from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, is still with us, with no end in sight. That assault was followed the next day by rocketing by Lebanese Hizbullah, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels and assorted Islamist militias in Iraq joined in a few weeks later. On April 13-14, 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran directly attacked Israel with ballistic missiles and suicide drones, initiating a frontal confrontation with the Jewish state.

Since then, bouts of intensive fighting have been interspersed with ceasefires, with the halts in warfare invariably imposed on Israel by U.S. President Trump and acceded to by the Islamist belligerents happy to enjoy breathers.

The present stalemate leaves Iran controlling passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's proxies - Hamas, Hizbullah, Iraqi militias and the Houthis - recovering and still in the fight. Iran's periodic rocketing and droning of America's regional Sunni allies - Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan - and U.S. military bases in these countries have severely undermined American power and prestige and have underwritten Iran's current hegemony in the Gulf. Trump is palpably reluctant to resume the war with Iran, and the Iranians are exploiting this weakness to the hilt.

As Israelis see it, the war is far from over, and most assume that the Islamists, once ready, will resume their war-making against the Jewish state and a very revenge-minded Iran will press ahead with its nuclear program. Iran's Islamist leaders have consistently declared that their goal is Israel's destruction.

Israeli observers expect Iran to move as quickly as possible to acquire nuclear weapons in the hope that these will shield it from future American and Israeli attack (and provide it with the means to flatten Israel). But while Iranian intentions are crystal clear, its capacity to rapidly progress toward nuclear weaponry is unknown after its major nuclear enrichment facilities were devastated in 2025-26.
Lebanon Lacks the Will and the Power to Confront Hizbullah
There is a contradiction at the heart of Western policy toward Lebanon. The forces in the country that are willing to negotiate with Israel don't have the power to influence those who are at war with it. The Iran-backed forces responsible for the violence openly reject the talks and make clear that they will not consider themselves obligated by any agreements reached. This contradiction shows no signs of being resolved any time soon.

There is little optimism on the Israeli side that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) performance this time will differ from past experience. Two UN Security Council resolutions, 1559 from 2004 and 1701, which ended the war of 2006, already called for the disarmament of all non-state military groups in Lebanon. Past Lebanese governments accepted these resolutions. Yet Iran's proxy Hizbullah continued to prosecute its long war against Israel from Lebanese soil, without suffering serious hindrance from the forces of the state.

The current government uses sharper tones in its criticisms of Hizbullah. But the Lebanese state lacks both the will and the capacity to force the non-state element to obey. Moreover, the LAF is believed to consist of 50% Shia among its rank and file and 30% in its officer corps.

So the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon diplomatic process rests on a series of fictions. Israel is aware of these fictions and is not in a position to endlessly indulge this illusion, given its responsibility for the residents of Israel's border communities.


‘We are not going anywhere’: Danon defends Jewish communities in West Bank at UN meeting
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, reaffirmed that Jewish communities in the West Bank would remain and continue to grow, rejecting claims that they are obstacles to peace during a United Nations Security Council meeting on the situation in the West Bank on Tuesday.

“The Security Council must understand a simple truth: We are not going anywhere. Jewish communities will stay in Judea and Samaria,” Danon said in a video posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.

“Jewish communities are not temporary outposts, nor obstacles to peace,” he continued. “They are permanent homes, thriving neighborhoods where families live. Judea and Samaria is where our people’s eternal connection to the Land of Israel began.”

Danon also accused the Security Council of applying a double standard by focusing on Israeli “settler violence” while, he argued, failing to give similar attention to hundreds of Palestinian terrorist attacks.

“When Israelis are involved, this body uses a collective label, ‘settler violence.’ But when Palestinian radicals carry out attacks, you refer only to the ones responsible,” Danon told the council.

“That is not justice. That is prejudice.”


Rights groups sue Trump over sanctions he placed on ICC due to Israel warrants
Rights groups on Tuesday sued US President Donald Trump over his sanctions targeting the International Criminal Court, saying the measures block victims of war crimes from pursuing justice.

The Trump administration, which rejected the ICC’s authority, had imposed travel bans and asset freezes on several judges and prosecutors, primarily over their investigations into key US ally Israel.

In a New York court filing, four groups including Human Rights Watch said the sanctions should be struck down as they violate laws including First Amendment free speech protections.

“This is an unlawful abuse of power constituting a frontal attack on the rule of law, the independence of judges, prosecutors, and lawyers, basic precepts undergirding the international legal order, and the principle of equal access to justice,” the lawsuit stated.

The 101-page complaint said the restrictions “cause grave damage to the ability to bring to justice the perpetrators of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.”

The US sanctions, issued under an executive order Trump signed in February 2025, had targeted eight judges, three prosecutors, a UN expert and three human rights organizations. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting about military families, in the Oval Office of the White House, August 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The sanctions followed the ICC’s November 2024 decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-defense minister Yoav Gallant over Israel’s conduct during the war against Hamas in Gaza. The court said there were reasonable grounds to believe the two bore criminal responsibility for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The allegations came after Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacre in southern Israel that sparked the ongoing war. Israel strongly rejected the allegations and disputed the court’s jurisdiction.

Neither Israel nor the US is a member of the ICC. Furthermore, Jerusalem has argued that the Palestinian Authority’s membership in the court does not give it jurisdiction over Israeli nationals.

Trump’s February 2025 executive order accused the court of taking “illegitimate and baseless” action against the US and Israel, citing both the warrants against the Israeli leaders and the ICC’s investigation into alleged crimes by US personnel in Afghanistan.

Tuesday’s lawsuit is the latest example of organizations pushing back on what they call the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine international law and prevent efforts to combat impunity by governments around the world.


WSJ Editorial: U.S. Blockade Keeps the Economic Pressure on Iran
Iran has launched at least 22 strikes in the past two weeks, getting away with firing 52 drones and 12 missiles. Yet the price of oil has stayed around $80, in part due to the 8 million barrels a day that U.S. officials say is being sneaked out of the Strait of Hormuz. If that oil - plus the rest exported via pipelines that avoid the Strait - can be sustained or increased, the U.S. has the economic upper hand.

The U.S. blockade is costing Iran's regime $435 million a day in lost economic activity. Inflation and unemployment are soaring while Iran's industrial base remains devastated and the currency collapses further. The better option, then, would be to continue the pressure of the blockade and sanctions, rather than sign a deal that hands over control of the Strait and gives economic relief up front, while knowing that Iran will violate its commitments.
Iran's Economic Breaking Point
With Iran's GDP projected to contract by 5.4% and inflation approaching 80%, the Iranian economy is undergoing a collapse. Iran sits atop an ocean of oil and gas, yet its citizens struggle to secure basic calories. Lifting the economic pressure and sanctions will not produce a breakthrough on the nuclear issue. On the contrary, it will funnel billions of dollars directly into the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Washington and the West are now missing a rare and historic opportunity to bring down the regime. The real way to subdue the regime requires a combined strategy: economic strangulation and an information campaign, coupled with quiet but overwhelming civil unrest through widespread labor strikes. With an aggressive information campaign showing Iranian citizens exactly where their money is going, not to them, but to illicit assets hidden in Europe and militias in Yemen and Lebanon, internal combustion becomes inevitable.

A civilian general strike neutralizes the principal advantages of Iran's security apparatus - the use of violent force. Unlike overt street demonstrations, there is no one to shoot. When protest moves from crowded streets into closed homes, the tactical advantage provided by guns and batons evaporates.
US Senators push to protect water systems after spate of Iranian cyberattacks, FBI warnings
In the wake of a spate of cyberattacks against municipal water systems in multiple US states, suspected to have been perpetrated by Iran, US officials are pushing to pass legislation aimed at fixing security gaps that leave the infrastructure vulnerable to hacks.

California Senator Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) water panel, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar on Monday unveiled the Water Cyber Shield Act, a bill intended to fortify drinking water and wastewater systems.

The proposed legislation follows numerous warnings from the EPA itself in addition to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and Government Accountability Office (GAO).

On July 22, days before a suspected Iranian cyberattack targeted over 30 municipal water systems in multiple states, US government agencies updated an April advisory emphasizing the growing threat of Iran-affiliated hacks on internet-connected systems.

In the advisory, the FBI, CISA, and US National Security Agency (NSA) noted previous incidents in which cyber threat actors linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) similarly targeted US infrastructure, drawing a connection between the water systems hacks and earlier cyberattacks.

The FBI posited that Iran-affiliated cyberattacks increased, likely in response to ongoing hostilities between Washington and Tehran.
How Crypto Forensics Is Dismantling the IRGC
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has increasingly pivoted toward cryptocurrency to sustain their operations. While initially perceived by illicit actors as a financial haven shielded from sovereign governments, this move has inadvertently handed global law enforcement agencies a powerful intelligence-gathering and disruption tool.

Blockchain technology is inherently a transparent and publicly accessible digital ledger. Blockchain records transactions in perpetuity, cryptographically preserving the network's financial history for investigators equipped with the appropriate analytical tools. This has given rise to the specialized field of crypto forensics that enables law enforcement agencies to penetrate the veil of digital wallets, map complex financial networks, and dismantle the economic infrastructure supporting organizations such as the IRGC.

In September 2025, Israel's National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing (NBCTF) ordered the seizure of 187 cryptocurrency wallets linked to the IRGC after blockchain analysis indicated that the addresses had received $1.5 billion worth of Tether (USDT), a dollar-pegged stablecoin. In July 2026, an additional Israeli operation sanctioned 37 digital wallets.

On June 2, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on four major Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges - Nobitex, Bitpin, Ramzinex, and Wallex - for their roles in facilitating sanctions evasion and terrorist financing. The action followed on-chain analysis indicating that IRGC-associated addresses accounted for more than 50% of the total value received by Iran's $7.78 billion cryptocurrency ecosystem in late 2025.
Six killed in Houthi attack on cargo ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
A small cargo ship was attacked on Tuesday by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, killing four crew members and two members of the rescue forces, according to two Yemeni coast guard sources and two military officials in the government.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said it had been informed that a cargo vessel off the coast of al-Mokha, Yemen, had been hit by an unknown projectile, resulting in casualties.

British maritime security company Ambrey said the ship was reportedly targeted and damaged by the Houthis, killing three crew members, while at anchor 3.3 nautical miles northeast of Perim Island, Yemen.

Three Pakistanis and one Indonesian person were killed as the ship sailed from Salalah in Oman via Djibouti. The Yemeni coast guard said two members of the forces deployed during a rescue mission to evacuate the ship were also killed.

The Yemeni government’s transport ministry said four other crew members were injured, as well as a member of the rescue team.

After the attack, the crew lost control of the ship and were approached by Yemeni coast guard, they added.

The Houthis have not yet claimed Tuesday’s attack.

If confirmed, the fatalities on the Tanzania-flagged Tihamah would be the first deaths in a Houthi strike on a ship since the Middle East conflict was triggered by US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February.


Israeli intel on Iranian plot said to have spurred decision to sneak Trump off Air Force One
Israel told the United States about the Iranian assassination threat that caused the US Secret Service to take President Donald Trump off Air Force One and transfer him in a catering truck to a military plane as he prepared to fly out of Turkey last month, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing an unnamed US official.

Israeli intelligence indicated that Iran was plotting to use shoulder-to-air missiles to take down Trump’s plane, according to the report.

Senior Trump aides, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, remained on the plane despite the threat, the official said.

Last month, the newspaper reported that Israeli intelligence had indicated a new plot was in development to assassinate the US president, but did not provide details.

Two US officials told Channel 12 news at the time that the information related to general dialogue between Iranian officials on potentially assassinating the US president, rather than a specific plot.

Trump, however, denied July 9’s Wall Street Journal report. “No, no. Israel came up with nothing. No, no,” he told the New York Post a day later.

“I’ve been number one [on Iran’s kill list] for a long time, and it’s the way life is,” he added at the time, while warning the United States would “completely decimate and destroy” Iran if it attempts to assassinate the president.

Trump had flown to the NATO summit in Ankara aboard a newly renovated Qatari-donated jet. The trip was the first international travel for the new plane, whose speedy upgrades triggered questions over its cost and security, and took place as hostilities escalated with Iran, which borders Turkey.

Before departing the Turkish capital, Trump said he would instead use an older baby blue Air Force One plane “for old time’s sake” ⁠to RAF Mildenhall in Britain, while the new Qatari-gifted plane stopped at the same base so US service members stationed there could tour the ​aircraft.

But after Trump boarded the old Air Force One in front of cameras in Ankara, he was secretly shuttled by an airport catering truck to a smaller plane, an Air Force C-32A, the Washington Post revealed Monday.
Ex-spy chief Cohen says Mossad ‘toured’ Fordow many times, bombing was ‘fulfillment of all dreams'
The Mossad toured the Fordow nuclear site "many times" in order to understand it, former spy chief Yossi Cohen revealed at the Galilee Conference on Tuesday.

It remains unclear whether Cohen was referring to agents physically present within the facility or to remote monitoring.

"Its bombing by the Americans is the fulfillment of all my dreams," Cohen added.

Regarding reports that the Iranians are approaching a nuclear weapons breakout, Cohen argued that “uranium enriched to 60% is still far from a bomb.”

As noted, the Fordow nuclear enrichment site, which is buried in a mountainous area, was attacked by the Americans during Operation Rising Lion. At the time, the Islamic Republic’s Atomic Energy Organization said the damage caused was “limited.”

“Limited damage was caused to several areas at the Fordow enrichment site, and we had already removed a significant portion of the equipment and materials. Therefore, there was no extensive damage, and there are no concerns about contamination,” said Behrouz Kamalvandi, deputy head and spokesman of the organization.

However, The Jerusalem Post is aware that the IDF has capabilities that could cause cave-ins at Fordow, which lies underneath a mountain. Additionally, initial estimates made known to the Post in March estimated that Fordow could be destroyed.

However, due to the site's location and construction, it might be unclear for a while what the true extent of the deal. Some Israeli officials told the Post they believe Fordow was destroyed, while others said caution should be the rule until confirmation.
IDF Report Details Daily Hamas Violations of Trump's Gaza Plan
The IDF prepares a daily report detailing all Hamas violations of President Trump's 20-point Gaza Plan. Israel sends the report to Washington to demonstrate the gap between Hamas's public commitment to the agreement and its actions on the ground.

The main violations include Hamas's failure to disarm, continued smuggling of weapons and materials used to manufacture weapons; rebuilding underground military infrastructure; continued exercise of authority in Gaza through checkpoints and armed police forces; preparing attacks against IDF troops; planting explosive devices; recruitment, equipping and training; and intelligence gathering and surveillance.

In 24 hours from Aug. 8 to Aug. 9, the IDF documented 14 ceasefire violations, 11 of which were classified as a "developing threat to IDF forces." Two incidents involved the transfer of weapons, along with one incident in which an explosive device was planted near the Yellow Line.
Lebanon claims IDF drone attack wounded two, hit ambulance; Israel denies striking
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday denied Lebanese reports of a “double-tap” strike in the Nabatieh area, saying it was unaware of any attacks there during that time.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said an attack had targeted a vehicle in the southern city of Nabatieh, with the health ministry reporting two wounded.

The ministry said the Israeli military struck again when rescuers from the Risala Scouts Association, linked to the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement, came to the scene, damaging the ambulance.

“The ministry reiterates its condemnation of the enemy’s continued targeting of rescue teams, which constitutes an unacceptable violation of international humanitarian law and all international norms,” it said.

Lebanon’s civil defense, meanwhile, said that its personnel were targeted by an Israeli drone strike while they were trying to extinguish a bushfire, also in the Nabatieh area. No one was wounded, but the incident forced them to leave, the civil defense said.

But the Israeli military rejected the claims.

“Following a review, no IDF strike in the area is known,” the military said in response to an inquiry.


Israel and Venezuela renew consular relations for first time since 2009
Israel and Venezuela announced on Tuesday that they had renewed consular relations, 17 years after diplomatic ties were severed between the two countries.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and his Venezuelan counterpart Félix Plasencia agreed to renew consular ties after talks in recent weeks “resulted in an agreement to establish a coordination mechanism that will enable the provision of consular services to citizens of both countries,” Sa’ar’s office said.

The two countries have not had any sort of diplomatic relations since 2009.

“Both governments recognize the importance of the relationship between the State of Israel and the Jewish community in Venezuela, which constitutes an important historic bridge of friendship between the two countries,” Venezuela’s government said in a statement, which was also issued by Israel’s Foreign Ministry.

It added that the two countries agreed to “continue their bilateral technical cooperation stemming from the emergency response and reconstruction efforts following the double earthquake” in June.

Venezuela severed diplomatic relations with Israel under then-president Hugo Chávez in 2009, amid deteriorating relations between Chávez’s government and Israel and a few days after the start of an IDF operation in the Gaza Strip.

But since Delcy Rodríguez was installed as the country’s president after the United States captured the previous leader, Nicolás Maduro, in January, officials have sharply changed their tone regarding the Jewish state.

Ties have also warmed since Israel sent humanitarian assistance following the earthquake. An Israeli aid delegation was dispatched to Venezuela, which provided professional assistance to the country’s emergency response and recovery efforts.

In comments a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Israel’s humanitarian delegation to Venezuela, saying at the time that it was also contributing to “rebuilding relations” with Caracas.

“You are rebuilding ruins, and you are also rebuilding relations. You are showing the people of Venezuela, as well as the Venezuelan government, the true face of the State of Israel,” Netanyahu said last month in a video message.
Saa’r: Colombia’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights ‘historic’
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar welcomed Colombia’s announcement on Monday recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, calling it a “historic decision.”

Israel’s top diplomat said in a statement that the decision followed his meeting last week with Colombia’s newly elected president, Abelardo de la Espriella. Sa’ar visited the Latin American country to attend the presidential inauguration ceremony.

“I will continue working so that more countries join the United States, under [U.S.] President [Donald] Trump, and Colombia, under President de la Espriella, in recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, where Israeli law was applied 45 years ago,” Sa’ar said.

Bogotá said in an official statement, “In light of the continuing regional instability in the Middle East, and considering the strategic importance of the Golan Heights to Israel’s security, the government of Colombia recognizes Israel’s sovereignty over this territory, as well as the state’s right to defend itself against external threats.”

It added, “For decades, Israel has faced persistent and existential security challenges along all of its borders. These threats have intensified significantly in recent years, culminating in the horrific terrorist attack of Oct. 7, which demonstrated both the severity and the evolving nature of the dangers facing the Israeli people. Within this regional security context, Colombia recognizes that Israel’s continued control and sovereignty over the Golan Heights constitutes an essential component of its national security and its ability to defend its citizens and safeguard their security.”

The decision regarding the Golan Heights is but one of a series of diplomatic developments between Israel and Colombia, according to Israel’s Foreign Ministry.

The new arrangements agreed between Sa’ar and the Colombian leadership include the full and immediate restoration of relations between the countries; immediate appointment of ambassadors; relocation of Colombia’s embassy to Jerusalem; abolition of visa requirements between the countries; a free-trade agreement; Colombia’s withdrawal from South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice and from the “Hague Group;” and tightening of collaborations in diplomatic, security and economic matters.

Earlier on Monday, Sa’ar spoke over the phone with his Colombian counterpart, Omar Bula Escobar, during which he expressed solidarity with Colombia and its people following the recent earthquake and offered Israel’s assistance, the ministry said.

The moves represent a dramatic reversal from the policies of defeated President Gustavo Petro, who severed diplomatic ties with Israel during the war against Hamas in Gaza and repeatedly criticized the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Colombia had long been considered one of Israel’s closest partners in Latin America, maintaining extensive cooperation in trade, agriculture and security before relations deteriorated under Petro.


House lawmakers push US backing for Israel-Greece-Cyprus power link
U.S. lawmakers are pressing the Trump administration to support a planned high-voltage power link connecting the electricity grids of Israel, Cyprus and Greece.

Led by Reps. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), a bipartisan group of House members urged U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation CEO Benjamin Black on Tuesday to back the Great Sea Interconnector.

The planned undersea cable would run about 751 miles across the Mediterranean Sea, connecting Israel and Cyprus and then Cyprus and Greece. The project is estimated to cost more than $2 billion. The European Union considers it a project of common interest and has allocated 657 million euros in funding.

In a letter to Rubio and Black, the lawmakers said the project would strengthen U.S. partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean and help establish the region as a strategic gateway between India, the Middle East and Europe.

“The Eastern Mediterranean is emerging as a central hub for energy and infrastructure connecting Europe, the Middle East and India,” the lawmakers wrote, requesting a briefing to discuss the project.

“The United States has a clear interest in ensuring that this transformation strengthens our partners, diversifies energy routes, deepens regional integration and advances a transparent alternative to infrastructure dominated by strategic competitors,” they wrote.

The letter was also signed by Reps. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Craig Goldman (R-Texas) and Haley Stevens (D-Mich.).





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