Monday, December 09, 2024
Elder of Ziyon
However, Hezbollah was relying on the idea that Iranian weapons would resume being imported across the porous Syrian border. While Hezbollah had some rocket manufacturing facilities, chances are that they have almost all been heavily damaged or destroyed.
That rebuild is not nearly as easy now that Assad fell. Any Iranian weapons convoys that try to cross the country would probably be confiscated by the rebel forces.
This is the most obvious way Hezbollah could be affected by the fall of Syria, but not the only one.
Hezbollah claims the Shebaa Farms area, and the basis for that claim is that it is Lebanese, not Syrian (and therefor part of the Golan Heights annexed by Israel.) Syria has not claimed that area as a favor to Hezbollah although it hasn't relinquished it, either. If the new regime claims it as Syrian territory, Hezbollah's entire claimed reason for existence as "resistance" evaporates.
Also, Hezbollah got a large amount of income from the sale of illegal drugs, particularly Captagon, and it partnered with Syria in that enterprise. Now that avenue of revenue is severely impacted.
Furthermore, the fall of Assad was celebrated by the Sunnis and Christians of Lebanon. They are now even less likely to consider Hezbollah a veto power over their desires in Lebanon, as it has far less leverage than it had before.
It is a two way street - Hezbollah's weakness means Iran no longer has the power to impose its will on Lebanon, and the Lebanese were always resentful of their land being controlled by this outside Shiite power who does not have their best interests at heart.
I had argued for months that the Lebanese people had the power to pressure Hezbollah to stand down from an imminent major escalation with Israel. They were way too frightened to do so. But that was then - now they feel far more empowered with the combination of Hezbollah's and Assad's, not to mention Iran's black eye from Israel's attack on that regime in October.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah keeps shouting to the wind that they were victorious over Israel.
Israel's victory in Lebanon was great news for the people there. Syria's fall give the Lebanese people hope that it was not a temporary reprieve in wars every decade or two, but a real chance to build their own country.
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