Sunday, December 08, 2024

12/08 Links: As Assad falls and Iran weakens, Qatar gains influence across Middle East; This is Iran’s annus horribilis; Jewish community in Australia ‘no longer feel safe’

From Ian:

Seth Frantzman: As Assad falls and Iran weakens, Qatar gains influence across Middle East
While Iran may appear cornered, there are still many wheels in motion in the region. Qatar will benefit from Iran’s weakness because it gives Doha even more influence and sponsorship space – the one Iran lost – over groups such as Hamas or the new emerging rulers in Damascus.

The system works like this: Over the past few years, Iran backed various regional groups, positioning itself in the role of hollowing out the countries these groups are based in, weakening them, and filling that space with militias.In Iraq and Lebanon, the militias are Shi’ite – like the Iranian regime; in Yemen, they also are a local sect.

In Syria, the Assad family is Alawite, a minority group. That means Iran fed off working with non-Sunni groups in the region.The exception to that rule was Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. By sponsoring these groups, Iran gained significant influence over Palestinians, enabling it to escape what was partly a sectarian ghetto.

Qatar is a different story. Doha backed the Muslim Brotherhood for years all across the region, a group rooted in Sunni Islamic politics, meaning that Doha has often found influence in civil conflicts and has been on a different path than Iran.

This was the case in Libya, Syria, and with Hamas. Qatar lost out at times, like when the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt in 2013. It even suffered some isolation when Saudi Arabia led several Arab countries to break ties in 2017.

Qatar and Turkey have formed an iron bond, however, and both have reached out to Iran. Turkey, Iran, and Russia were all part of the Astana process that aimed to end the Syrian civil war, and all three, along with Qatar, support Hamas.

While Israel will gain from Iran’s weakness, it is not a complete victory because Hamas continues to control Gaza, is angling for influence in the West Bank, and is holding 100 hostages. The Iranian threat was only one part of the deadly chessboard in this region, and a new threat will emerge soon.

Israel has always faced new threats. In the 1950s and 1960s, they were led by Arab nationalist regimes. Later, they were replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Turkey, whose leading Justice and Development Party (AKP) has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, is one of the most vicious foes of Israel.

Make no mistake, the end of the Assad regime will not likely solve all of Israel’s challenges. Qatar is angling to make itself more important, and its historic hosting of Hamas presents a challenge to Israel’s security.

On October 7, 2023, more Jews were massacred in one day than at any time since the Holocaust. So, while Iran and its axis continued to be a threat, they could not massacre 1,200 people and kidnap 251. Israel prevented Iran and its allies from such activities.

The key issue right now is preventing Hamas and its backers in Ankara and Doha from exploiting the situation in Syria for their own ends.
Jonathan Schanzer: Assad End in Syria
The Syrian border with Israel, now fortified with ground troops and air power, is one to watch in the weeks and months ahead. The Israelis have already taken the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. But Northern Syria is another flashpoint to watch. This is the Kurdish region, which is already a target for the Turks and their Sunni jihadi proxies. The Kurdish People’s Defense Units or YPG have been a consistent concern for Ankara because of the group’s close ties to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group in Turkey and in the United States. Never mind that the YPG played a significant role in the US campaign to defeat ISIS. Troublingly, Turkey has unfinished business in Syria. The Kurdish people, who have suffered mightily throughout their history, are slated for more suffering.

Alarmingly, the lame duck Biden Administration looks like a bystander. The region has its eyes instead on the X feed of President-Elect Donald Trump, who has advised America to simply let the drama in Syria play out. This may ultimately be the American interest, but the incoming Trump team should warn the patrons of the Syrian rebels—Turkey and Qatar—to keep their fighters away from America’s allies. This should include both Israel and the Kurds.

Some analysts believe that a consolidated Syrian state under Sunni control, after more than half a century of dominance by the country’s Alawite minority, could portend stability. Still others believe that sectarian cantons could emerge. Still others see the eventual Balkanization of the country. It’s obviously too soon to predict, but it certainly seems as if the Sunni rebels will dominate most if not, all of the country when the guns fall silent.

Whatever the map ultimately looks like, we are watching the return of a competition between two storied Middle East empires. The Iranian aspirations for a resurrected Persian empire experienced a massive setback yesterday. But those in Turkey seeking a neo-Ottoman order in the Middle East are elated. In other words, Syria has flipped from an Iranian satrap to an Ottoman sanjak overnight.

The fight for Syria appears to be over. The end of the Assad regime is an historic event. But history is still being written. The regional war launched by Hamas on October 7 has backfired horribly on its patrons in Tehran. Whether other unintended consequences follow is yet to be seen.
Syria: Better the Devil We Don't Know
From the perspective of Israel's strategic interests, the rebel attack in Syria presents opportunities that overshadow the risks. During the years when ISIS controlled territories in Iraq, the Iranian land route from Iran to Syria was blocked. Now, a similar blockage is expected to affect the land routes from Syria to Lebanon.

The chances of the recent agreement in Lebanon to restrain Hizbullah in the long term are increasing, as the process of its military recovery, after the war with Israel, will be slowed. At the same time, Iran's appetite for continuing cycles of threats and blows with Israel is expected to wane further, after Israel's effective strikes within its territory in October, which have already cooled its enthusiasm.

Some view Assad's regime as the "lesser evil" and argue that Israel would be better off with "the devil we know." According to this view, Assad is a figure with whom Israel can engage in deterrence dialogue (allowing air force freedom of action). He suppresses the Islamist forces that are far from being "Zionist-friendly," and he maintains a certain degree of stability in Syria and control over weapons, especially unconventional ones, within its territory.

We disagree. Assad, who massacred half a million of Syria's citizens and used chemical weapons against them, is a central figure in the axis that poses the most significant strategic threat to Israel. Most of Hizbullah's weapons have come from his production lines, his warehouses, or from Iran through Syrian territory. The ties between the Alawite regime in Syria and the mullah regime in Tehran are deep, and all efforts to distance Syria from Iran have been in vain.

On the other hand, the many Sunni rebel groups in Syria are not expected to direct their weapons toward Israel, certainly not in the immediate or medium term. They have a long-standing blood feud with Assad, Iran, and Hizbullah, and also among themselves.

Israel would prefer "the devil we don't know," as long as it leads to the weakening of Iran and the Shiite axis, which would mean a dramatic and positive shift for Israel in the regional balance of power.


This is Iran’s annus horribilis
Soleimani birthed and expanded the Axis of Resistance, and his successor Esmail Ghaani coordinated it following the 7 October massacre by Hamas in Israel. Throughout 2023, it appeared to be working, with coordination reaching unprecedented levels across the axis – with attacks coming from Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Iran even felt comfortable enough to launch its own direct strike against Israel twice. But Iranian leaders have overplayed their hand, leaving the regime dangerously overconfident, overextended, outgunned, and suffering from severe intelligence failures. The New York Times reported on an internal memorandum from the IRGC which suggested surprise over Syria as ‘unbelievable and strange’. A former Quds Force operative Mohammad Reza Gholamreza lamented this month that Turkey provided Iran reassurances that no operation was planned. This has resulted in the disintegration of chunks of the Axis of Resistance. The deaths of a significant chunk of the IRGC brain trust in the Levant over 2024 has only aggravated this situation. As Assad’s regime was sagging and along with it the infrastructure that Soleimani built, his successor Ghaani was pictured at a mourning ceremony in Tehran removed from the destruction.

However, despite the unprecedented defeats, it would be unwise to underestimate Iranian willpower to rebuild and protect its interests. Over the years, Iran’s leadership has made common cause and partnerships with not only Shiite militias but also Sunni extremists. This can be seen with Hamas, its harbouring of Al-Qaeda on Iranian soil, and its resourcing of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which has been a historic foe. Iran almost went to war with the Taliban in 1998 over the killing of Iranian diplomats. But years later, intelligence assessments surfaced that Iran offered bounties to Taliban fighters to kill US forces in Afghanistan. The Shiite presence in Syria will also continue to be a recruitment pool for Tehran. The Quds Force still retains roughly 5,000 officers, not to mention the IRGC’s other subunits which remain on the scene. Tehran may seek flexible partnerships with such Sunni actors to protect its interests as much as it can.

Thus, Iran’s grand strategy of seeking to eradicate the State of Israel and push the United States out of the region is unlikely to fundamentally change. But the regime’s strategic depth will be constrained and the means in which it achieves those ends – via its proxy network of partnerships – will have to shift.

The recent events are likely disorienting for Khamenei. At the age of 85 and planning for his succession, the Assad regime in Syria has been at Tehran’s side since 1979, for the totality of his presidency and much of his supreme leadership. Coupled with Hassan Nasrallah’s demise, this is likely to shake the regime, with voices in the political elite already questioning why Tehran has invested so much in Syria only to be left with colossal debts. Assad’s fall could also accelerate a debate within Tehran over whether to develop nuclear weapons, empowering the growing chorus of voices advocating for a change in the Iranian nuclear doctrine to protect the regime. There will be others in Iran who will likely instead counsel negotiations to buy the Islamic Republic time and space as a means of survival.

In the end, Iran faces losses that are unprecedented since the Iran-Iraq War and will have to contend with a new American president who is unpredictable and slated to employ maximum pressure against Iran. With this dynamic, will come a reckoning and a forced reconsideration of its strategy. Tehran may be weakened but is still dangerous.
The Fall of the Assad Regime: A Dramatic Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance
In hindsight, Israel's targeting of senior Hizbullah figures and Iranian Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran's Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian army. The heavy blow suffered by Hizbullah and the fall of Assad's regime threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran.

Soleimani essentially established the Axis of Resistance, which relied on Iran's ability to advance its interests, deter Israel and the U.S. from acting against Iran, and keep war away from Iran's borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals. Now, rebuilding Hizbullah's capabilities without Assad is highly questionable.

Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a military-grade level of 90% to theoretically "compensate" for the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran's deterrence. However, such a move without Hizbullah's protective umbrella, combined with Israel's demonstrated capability to strike in Iran and the presence of President Trump in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the regime in Tehran.
Caroline Glick: ASSAD'S DOWNFALL: Israel’s opportunity to THINK BIG
The dominoes continue to fall in the Middle East and they’ve brought the Assad regime down with them! Learn what led to Assad’s downfall and why this is Israel’s big chance to fix historic mistakes imposed on the region by colonial powers. Caroline Glick will discuss what Israel needs to do next and why Israel must seize the chance to redraw the political map. All on today’s episode of In Focus!


Post-Assad Syria: Winners and Losers, Crisis and Opportunity
Syria's pro-Iranian Alawite minority has fallen. Damascus was captured by the most formidable element of the anti-Assad coalition, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is led by the Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

Despite Western media re-broadcasts of Jolani's recent messages "We come in peace," Jolani is suspected of remaining a committed Islamist who has vowed to establish an Islamic Republic in Syria. Historically, he has been an avowed enemy of the West and Israel.

It would be prudent for the West to remember that HTS stands for the liberation of the entire Levant, which includes not only Syria, but Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan as well.

Turkey is a major supporter of HTS. Turkey has hosted at least three million Syrian refugees during the 12-year Syrian civil war, and Istanbul has been the site of several assemblies of Syrian opposition groups.

Russia and Iran, the former regime's erstwhile supporters, are the losers in the fall of the Assad dictatorship.

The Russians will need to negotiate with the new sheriff in town, presumably to oversee Russia's withdrawal from its Syrian air bases and naval facility.
Why Syria's Army Collapsed So Suddenly
Syrian army units abandoned their positions on the outskirts of Damascus on Saturday night, fleeing the advance of rebel forces. Analysts said that low pay and morale as well as little experience were hampering the effectiveness of the army.

"The Syrian army has never been very good - it ruled by fear and terror, bolstered and backed up by Russians since 2015 who provided firepower and direction. Most of the officers were selected because they were close to Assad," said Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a retired British army colonel. "The commanders...are more focused on smuggling and extortion than on actually creating defensive positions and leading their troops," said Greg Waters, of the Middle East Institute.

Stephen Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the bulk of the Syrian army was made up of conscripts who "did not want to be there." He described Assad's army as a "Soviet-style" military that has huge problems with supply and logistics.

Large numbers of army deserters have laid down their arms and surrendered to the rebels, with a long queue forming in Idlib after they were offered amnesty.


Reporting from the Golan Heights, on the day Assad was overthrown
The small hill of Tel Saki was littered on Sunday with the debris of previous wars. A tank is perched near the hilltop, and there are concrete steps and entrances to an old Israeli bunker. This was the site of a difficult battle during the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

Yesterday, it was quiet, yet the fort stands overlooking the Syrian border, witness to momentous events. On Sunday, the Assad regime fell from power, while across the border from Tel Saki, sporadic gunfire could be heard – Syrians shooting in the air in celebration.

On Saturday night, this area saw dramatic developments: an attack on a UN post and growing concerns that the rapid changes in Syria may spill over into a threat against Israel.

Syrian rebel groups took control of areas across from Israel in the Golan, while Israel’s other enemies await there: Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah.

In the past, before the Syrian regime’s return to the Golan border, ISIS members were present in an area of Syria near the southern Golan. As I stood on Tel Saki surveying the Syrian villages, I reflected on how it was these villages that an ISIS affiliate once occupied before 2018.

The question of Syria’s future currently remains unknown. An optimistic scenario could see the Syrian government become more inclusive, with rebel groups transforming the country into something new and better.

Some of the rebel groups in the south once had amicable ties with Israel, while Jerusalem provided humanitarian support during the Syrian Civil War. However, it is unclear what kind of relationship would be possible today.

I drove up to the border along Highway 98, which runs along the Syrian border. Across open ground and old anti-tank ditches from the 1970s, there lies a fence and some UN posts, and beyond that, the Syrian side of the Golan.

The buffer zone that separates Israel from Syria is restricted by two lines on a map – the Bravo line, where the Syrian regime once held power, and the Alpha line, where Israeli forces are present. Looking out at this flat landscape, one couldn’t tell where the lines were.

Far in the distance, a mosque in a Syrian village is visible, and somewhere in the middle is the buffer zone. Except for distant gunfire, it is quiet.
‘Historic day,’ says Netanyahu at Syrian border
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu, visiting the Syrian border on Sunday, hailed the collapse of the Assad regime, “a central link in Iran’s axis of evil,” describing it as a “historic day in the history of the Middle East.”

Netanyahu said the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who fled the country after a coalition of rebel groups stormed Damascus on Sunday, was the direct result of blows Israel inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, “the main supporters of the Assad regime.”

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed to reporters on Saturday that Assad had been largely abandoned by his key allies.

A rebel spokesman declared, in a statement carried on state television: “Damascus has been liberated, and the tyrant Bashar Assad has been overthrown,” adding that “prisoners in regime prisons have been released.”

Netanyahu said the regime’s collapse “has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to break free from this regime of oppression and tyranny.” It offers opportunities for Israel, he added.

However, he said Israel would first and foremost protect its border. “This area was controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone,” he noted, while visiting Mount Bental, a dormant volcano on the northeastern Golan Heights.

“I instructed the IDF yesterday to take over the buffer zone and the adjacent control positions. We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our borders,” Netanyahu said.

Israeli troops deployed to the demilitarized buffer zone and “several other places necessary for its defense,” the IDF said on Sunday.

The army said the move, which followed a situational assessment, was taken to avoid a scenario of “armed personnel” entering the buffer zone, which was established by the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Damascus and Jerusalem and ended the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Accompanying the prime minister was Defense Minister Israel Katz and the head of the Golan Regional Council, Uri Kellner.

The prime minister spoke of pursuing a policy of “good neighborliness,” noting that Israel established a field hospital to treat thousands of Syrians wounded during the civil war.

Israel extends a “hand of peace” first of all to Druze living across the border in Syria, Netanyahu said, noting they are the brothers of Druze living in Israel.


IAF downs missile launched from Yemen
The Israeli Air Force on Sunday morning intercepted a missile launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen.

The projectile was downed before it crossed into Israeli territory, the IDF said. No air-raid sirens were triggered, as the missile did not pose an immediate threat to populated areas.

Last Sunday, a ballistic missile fired from Yemen triggered sirens in the Judean Foothills, a region known in Hebrew as the Shfela. The missile was intercepted by the Arrow defense system before entering Israeli airspace.

Four people were injured running to shelters, according to Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service.

In July, a Houthi drone killed a civilian in central Tel Aviv. In response, Israel struck Yemen’s Hodeidah Port in a major aerial attack.

On Sept. 29, the Israeli Air Force carried out dozens of strikes in the area of Hodeidah. Jerusalem said the targets included “power plants and a seaport, which were used by the Houthis to transfer Iranian weapons to the region, in addition to military supplies and oil.”
IDF: Dozens of Hezbollah terrorists killed, positions struck since start of truce
Israeli forces have killed some two dozen Hezbollah terrorists since the start of the Nov. 27 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, the Israel Defense Forces announced on Sunday.

The Israeli Air Force has also struck dozens of Hezbollah positions during the same period, the military stated.

Under the terms of the truce, Israeli forces are to withdraw from Lebanon by late January, while Lebanon’s army enters those areas vacated by the IDF. Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire repeatedly since the day it took effect, according to the IDF.

The IDF said on Sunday that forces of its 7th Armored Brigade, working under the command of the 98th Division, discovered weapons warehouses hidden in civilian areas of Southern Lebanon.

In one operation, troops found “hundreds” of anti-tank rockets, mortar grenades and a car with a rocket launcher mounted on top, the military said, adding that the forces also “located and destroyed” several tunnel shafts that led to underground Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure.

On Sunday morning, Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen news outlet, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that two people were killed in an Israel drone strike on a structure in Southern Lebanon.

On Saturday night, the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al Akhbar claimed that four people had been killed and six others wounded by an Israeli strike in Beit Lif in the country’s south.

In addition, the IDF has attacked Hezbollah convoys fleeing Syria for Lebanon following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s rule.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told Sky News Arabia on Dec. 2 that Jerusalem remains committed to the terms of the ceasefire.

“UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese government must fulfill their roles—this is also in their interest. We need this period to ensure there are no terror bases there,” he said, emphasizing that the Lebanese people and government must ensure that “Beirut and Southern Lebanon are free of weapons—not in homes, not in yards and not in children’s rooms.”


Australian PM calls synagogue torching ‘terrorism’
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday condemned the recent torching of a synagogue in Melbourne as “terrorism” and warned about the “worrying rise in antisemitism” in his country.

Albanese, whose left-wing Labor government has been accused of pursuing anti-Israel positions, declined to address claims by his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, that these positions had helped ignite the attack.

Asked about Netanyahu’s allegations, Albanese said during an interview on Sunday: “Well, that is a matter for Mr. Netanyahu, but can I make this point very clearly, that 157 countries supported the resolution that was passed by the United Nations.”

Albanese was referencing a Dec. 4 vote at the U.N. General Assembly that called on Israel to “bring to an end its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as rapidly as possible.” Australia has traditionally opposed or abstained from voting on resolutions employing such language.

The United States, Argentina, Hungary and Israel were among the eight countries that opposed the resolution.

Albanese added on Sunday that, “In Australia, we have had a long-term support for a two-state solution in the Middle East.”

Asked whether he considers the synagogue torching an act of terrorism, Albanese answered: “Quite clearly this has been aimed at creating fear, and that is what terrorists seek to do,” according to the official transcript of the interview published by Albanese’s office.

Albanese also noted that the government has made AUD 25 million ($16 million) available for a program aimed at enhancing security at and around Jewish community institutions.

“There has been a worrying rise in antisemitism, but we call it out, and we call it out consistently, and we work with the community to work through these issues,” said Albanese.


Security funding “not dealing with the problem”
The Australian government has announced an additional $32.5 million in security funding for Jewish communities, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressing growing concerns about antisemitism.

The funding will be provided over the next 18 months, following the near-complete expenditure of a previous $25 million allocation.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said this grant will enable the community to provide support and security on the basis of priorities established by the community themselves

“Antisemitism is disgraceful, and I unequivocally condemn it in all its forms. Every Australian has the right to be proud of who they are and to feel welcome, safe and supported in Australia” the Prime Minister says.

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said there is no higher priority than community safety for the Albanese Government.

“Antisemitism has no place in Australia. We all have a responsibility to fight against it. This announcement builds on previous support for the Jewish community, including funding for increased security, criminalising doxxing and banning the Nazi salute and hate symbols” Dreyfus said

ECAJ President Daniel Aghion has welcomed the financial support but emphasised the need for more comprehensive action.

“We are grateful for the government’s support, but this is still about protecting our institutions from attack,” Aghion said.

He stressed that the funding is reactive rather than preventative, saying, “It is not getting ahead of the problem, and it is not dealing with the causes of antisemitism and preventing the attacks and risk in the first place.”


Avi Yemini: The SHOCKING truth about the synagogue firebombing

Jewish community rallies in solidarity
Almost a thousand people gathered in Ripponlea on Sunday to show support for the Adass Israel community following a devastating firebombing of their synagogue on Friday morning.

The rally at Burnett Grey Gardens, home to the Jewish Serviceman’s monument to 127 Jewish soldiers who served in war was organised by J-United and brought together Jewish community leaders, local politicians, faith leaders, and supporters from diverse backgrounds.

Naomi Levin, CEO of the Jewish Community Council of Victoria (JCCV), said the Adass community’s primary concern was the preservation of their sacred Torah scrolls.

“When we first arrived at the Adass Israel congregation, what struck me was the absolute devastation, but also the enormous resilience of that community,” Levin told the assembled crowd. “All they wanted to know was whether their Sifrei Torah and tefillin were safe, and that they could continue living proud Jewish lives here in Melbourne.”

Unfortunately, the damage to these sacred texts was significant

“Those scrolls were significantly water and smoke damaged,” Levin explained. “But as a community, we will come together to ensure these and more will be replaced.”

“Over Shabbat, the Adass leadership told me they sang Ani Ma’amin, a song from the Holocaust that reflects our community’s strength, resilience, and continued rising from the ashes. Nobody can destroy our community, and nobody will destroy the Adass Israel community,” Levin said.

Levin also highlighted a growing public response to recent antisemitic incidents.

“The silent majority has started to speak up,” she said, mentioning that faith leaders and radio callers had expressed their devastation and solidarity.


‘Hamas asks Gaza terror groups for info on hostages ahead of possible deal’
Sources within terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip told AFP on Sunday that Hamas has ordered them to provide information on the captives they hold for a potential ceasefire-for-hostages deal with Israel.

Hamas told fellow terrorist organizations—including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popular Resistance Committees—to prepare information, including whether their hostages are alive or dead, AFP cited the sources as saying.

A Hamas source told the agency there had been “intensified contacts” between Hamas and Qatari, Egyptian and Turkish mediators in recent days, and that the terrorist organization expected another round of negotiations with Jerusalem to kick off in Cairo “in the coming days.”

The same source called on the Jewish state to halt the war, saying the presence of Israel Defense Forces troops in the Gaza Strip made it “difficult to reach all the captive groups to know the details of the living and dead prisoners.”

According to official IDF figures, 96 of the 251 hostages who were taken during the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault remain in Gaza after 425 days.

The Palestinian terrorist group is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the coastal enclave in 2014 and 2015, and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed during “Operation Protective Edge” in 2014.
‘My daughter is the last British Gaza hostage. Every morning I ask for a sign she’s alive’
If you have a daughter or a grand-daughter or a sister, close your eyes and try to picture her in hell. Deep underground, caged, struggling to breathe in the foetid air, unwashed, ragged clothes, a mane of curly hair crawling with lice, in pain from gunshot wounds to her hand and leg, starving, dehydrated, watched over by men who want to rape or murder her and may put a bullet through her head on a whim; a young woman stripped of everything that makes us human except, perhaps, some irreducible sense of who she was and may yet be again if she is saved. (A flickering hope, almost extinguished, but not quite.) And now the camera moves in closer and we see something etched on the young woman’s left arm, a tattoo: “My mum is always right,” it says.

This is Emily Damari, 28, and she had been held hostage by Hamas for over a year when I sat down on Wednesday to interview the mum who is always right.

“425 days,” says Mandy Damari, in a parched weary voice, the south London twang with its wide vowels still surprisingly strong after over 40 years living in Israel. Mandy has been using that voice a lot this week in the UK, petitioning Sir Keir Starmer; Kemi Badenoch (both PM and Leader of the Opposition mentioned Emily and Mandy in the House of Commons); Nigel Farage (Mandy was impressed); Foreign Secretary David Lammy (not impressed at all, but we’ll come to that); broadcasters; ambassadors; lobby groups – basically anyone who might be able to do something to free her daughter or at least relieve her torment with some humanitarian aid.

Making speeches to world leaders is the very last thing this tiny (she is just over 5ft), unassuming kindergarten teacher would have felt comfortable doing before Emily was taken captive. But the maternal instinct – which turns out to have the tensile strength of tungsten under pressure – has over-ridden her fear of the spotlight. Earlier this week she gave a stirring address to Labour Friends of Israel, and, while welcoming their good intentions, she did not hold back from rebuking the UK’s actions (or rather shaming lack thereof). “Last month, the British government voted for an unconditional ceasefire in the UN that would leave Emily and the other hostages in the hands of Hamas, giving them no incentive to ever release them,” she said, “That vote shocked me and broke my heart.”

When we speak at the kitchen table of her friend’s house in north London, Mandy Damari has a forcefield of pain around her, which lends an extraordinary stillness and gravity to that slight figure, but there is anger not far beneath. She is furious with the UN where she recently spotted an uplifting statement in pretty calligraphy on the wall about human rights. “‘No one should be subject to cruel, inhuman, degrading treatment or punishment…’, it said. Well, that’s just lip service because my daughter is getting nothing that is written down on their poster. I said to them, ‘you’d better take that down because you’re not doing your job.’”


The speech they tried to hide: Mosab Hassan Yousef at the Oxford Union, on Israel and Palestinians
Finally: the full speech of Mosab Hassan Yousef at the Oxford Union.

On 28th November 2024 Mosab Hassan Yousef spoke at the Oxford Union in defence of the state of Israel, alongside Jonathan Sacerdoti, Yoseph Haddad and Natasha Hausdorff. He was heckled and abused throughout.

The President of the Oxford Union, who both chaired the event and spoke against Israel, tried to evict Mosab midway through his speech, only backing down after protest from his fellow speakers.

Despite promising to publish all the speeches, the Oxford Union has so far suppressed this speech, hiding it from the public. The large amount of media coverage of this shambolic and offensive event means there is an enormous public interest in the speech being made published. So here it is.

The audio quality is not perfect, and the subtitles aim to represent as accurately as possible the words spoken.

Now you can judge the speech for yourself.


Natasha Hausdorff in the Oxford Union debate on Israel on 28/11/2024
Natasha Hausdorff, barrister and UKLFI Charitable Trust Legal Director, replies to allegations that Israel is a genocidal and apartheid state at the Oxford Union debate on 28 November 2024.


Natasha Hausdorff discusses the Oxford Union debate on Israel with Michael Portillo on GB News.
Sunday with Michael Portillo on GB News featured Natasha Hausdorff, barrister and UKLFI Charitable Trust Legal Director, interviewed about the controversial Oxford Union debate on Israel on 28 November 2024. Ms Hausdorff spoke in the debate, in the course of which pro-Israel Arab speakers were threatened and the actions of Hamas on 7 October were described as heroic.


‘Deplorable’: Dutton lambasts Albanese’s response to rising antisemitism in Australia
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has hit out at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s response to rising antisemitism in Australia following the recent firebombing of a Melbourne synagogue.

The Adass Israel Synagogue was left with significant damage following a fire which tore through the building early on Friday morning in a suspected arson attack.

“It’s a tragedy, and it’s a national disgrace. It should never have happened, and nobody should be surprised by the fact that it has happened, which is part of the tragedy,” Mr Dutton told Sky News Australia.

“The fact is that the Prime Minister took a deliberate decision 13 months ago to play down the level of antisemitism in the community, and the government’s policies right up to this very day have made it less safe for people of Jewish faith in our country.

“The Prime Minister won’t even use the word ‘terrorist attack’, and that says something in itself.

“The Prime Minister’s deliberate decision to seek political advantage … on this issue and play to a domestic audience of green voters, I think has been deplorable.”


‘Outrageously negligent’: Government’s response to antisemitism under fire
Australian Jewish Association President David Adler has strongly criticised Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s response to the recent firebombing of the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne.

Mr Adler accused the Prime Minister and the Labor government of being “outrageously negligent” in addressing antisemitism in Australia.

“Anthony Albanese, and in fact this government, has been outrageously negligent in calling out the issue and in dealing with it. It is a totally inadequate response, just words, no action again,” Mr Adler told Sky News Australia.

“He’s also said there is no room for antisemitism in Australia, and indeed, this government has created a lot of room for antisemitism. We see it on the streets of Sydney and Melbourne. We see it in blockades and attacks on our synagogues. We see it in attacks on Jewish businesses and graffiti all over the place. We see it on the university campuses. And in none of those areas has it been dealt with adequately.”


Jewish community in Australia ‘no longer feel safe’
Israeli author and activist Noa Tishby has joined Outsiders to discuss the recent firebombing at a Melbourne synagogue.

Ms Tishby claims the Jewish community in Australia has said they “no longer feel safe”.

“This is something that started trickling down and started coming out before October 7,” she said.


TV host blasts Greta Thunberg’s recent ‘vile’ comments
Sky News host Rowan Dean has hit out at Greta Thunberg after the climate activist was filmed giggling as she shouted “f**k Germany and f**k Israel” at a pro-Palestinian event.

The climate activist appeared as a speaker in the south-western German city of Mannheim on Friday at a pro-Palestinian event.

Mr Dean labelled the comments made by Ms Thunberg as “pathetic” and “juvenile”.


Photo of baby Jesus on a keffiyeh featured in Vatican nativity scene
A nativity scene that went on display at the Vatican on Saturday features a photo of the infant Jesus on a kaffiyeh.

The traditional Arab scarf has been adopted by Palestinians as a symbol of their national aspirations. The image comes at a time when a revisionist Palestinian narrative has set in whereby Jesus is a Palestinian.

The photograph was presented to the Vatican by representatives from the Embassy of the State of Palestine to the Holy See on the inauguration of the “Nativity of Bethlehem 2024,” displayed in the Paul VI Hall, Vatican News reported.

The pre-Christmas event came just weeks after the Catholic leader called for an international investigation to determine if Israel’s actions in its war against Hamas in Gaza constituted genocide.


Unhinged man dubbed ‘MackNazi’ — who lives with TV actress sister –terrorizing NYC, ripping down Israeli hostage posters
An unhinged, Israel-hating dog walker who lives with his TV-actress sister on the Upper West Side is terrorizing the neighborhood, repeatedly ripping down Israeli hostage posters and allegedly assaulting anyone who dares get in his way, The Post has learned.

Since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack on Israel, Mackenzie Watson – dubbed “MackNazi” by many of his neighbors — has waged a one-man war on anyone posting hostage flyers or removing pro-Palestine stickers, according to court records and some of his alleged victims.

“He really just hates Jews,” said a 48-year-old resident who’s watched Watson’s antics and estimated at least 100 Upper West Siders “have had bad run-ins with him.”

She also said Watson — who lives in the nabe with his 29-year-old sister Jamie Linn Watson, who’s appeared in FX’s “What We Do in the Shadows” and the Judd Apatow flick “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy” — seems more worried about ripping down posters than caring for the pooches he walks.

“He’ll sometimes have four dogs; they’re hooked to his waist, and he’s using both hands at the same time to just pull off the stickers at every corner,” the woman added.

Watson’s most recent outbursts include a June incident where he tailed and harassed a 15-year-old girl and her mom, 56, after the teen ripped off one his “antisemitic” stop-genocide stickers from a lamp post on the corner of West 103rd Street and West End Avenue, the fearful mother recalled.

Watson then shoved his phone camera in their faces before stalking them for five blocks as they tried to flee him, she said.


UKLFI: Shelter hits back at union-led anti-Israel campaigns
The housing and homelessness charity, Shelter, has rebuffed union-led antisemitic and anti-Israel campaigns within its organization, as explained by its chief executive Polly Neate.

Ms Neate responded to a list of concerns sent by an anonymous whistleblower to UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI), who was worried about the antisemitic atmosphere amongst some staff at the organization.

Shelter had produced an advertising campaign to promote social housing and its benefits and to dispel negative connotations attached to it. The campaign was given the name “Made In Social Housing” (MISH). Eddie Marsan, a well-known actor, who was himself brought up on a council estate in East London, participated in it.

Between May and July 2024 around 100 people signed a petition at the behest of Unite, calling for Shelter to “Remove Eddie Marsan from the MISH Campaign or commit to ensuring no future content is released with Eddie Marsan, and all pinned content with him or tags to his account(s) are removed”.

The petitioners objected to Eddie Marsan having a tree planted in his name, in recognition of his bravery in speaking up against antisemitism in the UK. They claimed the objection was to the Jewish National Fund, the organisation that planted the tree in Eddie Marsan’s name.

Staff requested that the trade union should have a role in future campaign planning and celebrity support. “We responded that this was inappropriate and refused the request”, Ms Neate said. The MISH campaign went on to win several awards.

Earlier in the year a number of staff requested that Shelter change its approach to procurement to incorporate BDS into the framework “We did not take up this suggestion”, said Ms Neate.

Another concern was the poor behaviour of staff during antisemitism training, which was delivered via webinars in October 2024. Ms Neate responded: “colleagues were free to ask questions or query assertions made during the training.”


CIA Leak Delayed Israeli Strike on Iran, Court Documents Confirm
U.S. prosecutors argued in court that the leak of classified documents delayed a planned Israeli military operation against Iran. Troy Edwards, the lead prosecutor, said the disclosure prompted Israel to postpone a "kinetic action" out of concern that its plans had been compromised.

Despite presenting incriminating evidence against the alleged leaker, Asif William Rahman, 34, a federal judge ordered his release to home detention under electronic monitoring.

The Justice Department announced plans to appeal the decision, arguing that although Rahman no longer has access to classified materials, his memory of sensitive information could still pose a national security threat. Prosecutors stressed that "memory and perception" alone are sufficient for the unauthorized sharing of classified data, even through simple means like verbal communication.

Rahman, an Ohio native and Yale graduate, was arrested in Cambodia while allegedly attempting to delete classified files and enhance the security of his digital devices. He is accused of leaking two classified documents from secure systems. Officials have not disclosed his motives, which remain unclear.
Israel Showed the "Power" of F-35s in Destroying Nearly All of Iran's Air Defenses without a Loss, UK Admiral Says
Adm. Tony Radakin, the UK's chief of defense staff, disclosed that Israel used its F-35s to carry out the widespread October 26 strikes against military sites across Iran, including air-defense systems and missile-manufacturing facilities, in response to a massive Iranian missile attack at the start of the month.

"Israel used more than 100 aircraft, carrying fewer than 100 munitions, and with no aircraft getting within 100 miles of the target in the first wave, and that took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air-defense system," Radakin told the Royal United Services Institute in London.

"It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year and left Tehran with a strategic dilemma in how it responds. That is the power of fifth-generation aircraft, combined with exquisite targeting and extraordinary intelligence," Radakin said. "And that was all delivered from a single sortie."
Iranian foreign minister meets with Hamas leaders in Doha
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Hamas leaders at the terror group’s office in Doha on Saturday for talks on the situation in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing war there.

The Hamas delegation was headed by the group’s Shura Council chair Muhammad Darwish.

Darwish sits on the five-member Leadership Council established by then-Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar shortly before he was killed by Israel in October in Gaza.

Hamas hasn’t yet named a successor for Sinwar, but the group referred to Darwish as the head of its Leadership Council in a readout Friday, and he is increasingly being framed as a consensus pick for the position.

Hamas said in a statement that the meeting discussed the situation in the Gaza Strip, as well as recent meetings between Fatah and Hamas officials in Cairo that reportedly produced an agreement on jointly managing Gaza when the war ended, the pro-Iran broadcaster Al-Mayadeen reported.

The West Bank-based Fatah of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has been at odds with Hamas since 2005, when the terror group ousted the PA from Gaza in a bloody coup.

Talks also touched on the West Bank and East Jerusalem — areas the Palestinians want for a future state — and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The meeting came amid renewed efforts by international mediators to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza that would include the release of hostages abducted from Israel during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that started the war. Amid a recent prevailing atmosphere that a deal could be reached, Qatar confirmed Friday that it would re-embrace its role as a mediator along with the US and Egypt after earlier this year saying it was pausing its activities due to what it said was Israeli and Hamas intransigence.
Over 30,000 march through London against antisemitism
Undeterred by the wind and rain of Storm Darragh, over 30,000 people, according to organisers, marched through central London today, protesting against the surge in antisemitism that has been seen across the UK since October 7.

Holding banners, Union Jacks and Israeli flags and amidst chants of “Stop the hate before it’s too late”, the cross-communal turnout, supported by allies primarily from the Hindu, Sikh, Iranian and Christian communities, marched from the Royal Courts of Justice to Parliament Square, where several speakers addressed the crowd.

Giving an impassioned speech, Gideon Falter, chief executive of the Campaign Against Antisemitism, which organised the march, said that “appeasement [had] become the doctrine of the day”.

He said: “Our country is known around the world for its tolerance and decency. British justice is renowned as the benchmark that other nations aspire to.

“But over the past year, our country has betrayed those values. Extremism has been met not only with passive inaction, but active appeasement. This country once wrestled with appeasement, rejected it and taught the world a vital lesson in standing up for what is right.”

“…Look at the bitter fruits of appeasement that we are now reaping. Hundreds of thousands of people coursing through our streets week after week demanding intifada.”

Gideon said the marches had “stifled debate on our campuses, forced Parliament to change its proceedings out of fear for MPs’ safety, scared schoolchildren, forced Jews to hide their identity on public transport, intimidated us in our workplaces and even encroached into our hospitals”.

He said that the fight against antisemitism “puts Jews on the frontlines of the battle for the future of the West. It is a long frontline with many flashpoints, but should any part of it fail, the entire defence fails".

Also addressing the crowd was Lorin Khizran, a 27-year-old nurse from the Druze village of Yarka in the north of Israel.

On October 7, Khizran found herself working around the clock at Rambam Hospital’s surgical department in Haifa, treating the wounded from both Israel’s southern and northern borders.

Khizran, whose father is a general in the IDF and who, on October 7 “in Druze spirit, went straight to the south to be with his people”, said: “I come from a multicultural society in a state called Israel. I am here to educate students on campus about the real Israel, not the lies they are told.”

Describing herself as “a Zionist” who was “raised in a Zionist home”, Khizran, who is currently working with StandWithUs, said that the war in the Middle East was “not a fight between Jews and Muslims, Israelis and Palestinians, but citizens who want to live in peace and those who want to return to the Dark Ages”.




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This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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