Wednesday, November 06, 2024

11/06 Links Pt1: Trump will not restrain Israel: the clock is now ticking for Iran and its proxies; Shapiro: Turning point of election was when Trump visited Rebbe's grave

From Ian:

John Podhoretz: Trump the ‘colossus’ is the comeback king of American politics
We are in the midst of the greatest political comeback in American history — which follows, by eight years, the greatest political stunt in American history.

That stunt was Donald Trump’s first win, in 2016. The comeback is his extraordinary performance over the past four years following his defeat in 2020.

I am not here going to adjudicate Trump’s sins or errors, though I am so mindful of them that I did not vote for him and wrote in someone else.

No, I am here to represent hundreds of millions of slack-jawed people around the world, gaping in wonderment at the fact that Trump got to this place on Election Night 2024.

Think of it. This is a man who was impeached (for a second time) two weeks before leaving office in 2021. In the years that followed that second impeachment, he was pursued by a state attorney general, two local prosecutors and a federal special prosecutor.

He was indicted 91 times in three different criminal courts and found liable in two civil courts. He has been convicted (ludicrously, in my view) of 34 (ludicrous, again) felonies.

He has had his home raided by federal agents. He has seen his eponymous business effectively shut down by a Manhattan judge.

He has been the subject of relentless and limitless hostile press coverage that dwarfs any negative characterizations of any other human being of our time.

And yet here he is, on the cusp of becoming president of the United States for a second go-round.

His utter refusal to be bent or broken by his enemies and his critics and his determination to redeem himself by recapturing the office he lost has no parallel that I can think of — not in American history, anyway.
Seth Frantzman: Trump will not restrain Israel: the clock is now ticking for Iran and its proxies
These groups have believed over the last several years that they could keep pushing the envelope in the region. They felt there was a wind at their back as the world shifted from a US-led world order to one that is multi-polar and increasingly challenged by Russia and China. Hezbollah, for instance, threatened Israel into a maritime deal in 2022 that Israel was falsely told would bring stability and security. The Houthis assumed they could attack ships and block a major maritime route after the October 7 attacks because they believed the US and its allies in the region would appease them. The Houthis have been largely correct in this analysis. They have been appeased, suffering only minor pushback. The Biden administration talked tough but it wasn’t willing to go far enough to keep maritime trade corridors open. This was a major change from more than a century of US foreign policy that has focused on freedom of navigation, a key policy of US President Woodrow Wilson.

Iran still feels empowered. It has threatened more direct attacks on Israel. The sense in Iran and among Iranian proxies, friends and allies that time is on their side came amidst major shifts globally. Iran looked at the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the displacement of Armenians from Nagorna-Karabakh in 2023 and assumed it could do as it pleased.

Hamas, hosted by Doha, believed that the time was ripe in 2023 for its genocidal attack on October 7. It calculated that it could massacre 1,000 people and take 250 hostage, including numerous Americans and other foreign citizens, and face zero consequences. Hamas believed it could get away with October 7 and get Doha, a key US ally, and Iran to leverage that into a deal that would leave it in power in Gaza and bring it to power in the West Bank. Hezbollah believed it could rain down rockets on Israel. Iran felt it could launch hundreds of missiles at Israel.

Donald Trump’s victory may change this sense of impunity. It could set in motion several processes in the region. First, it could accelerate plans by Iran and its proxies to continue the war and chaos they unleashed on October 7. They may think they have another two months to increase attacks before their window of opportunity closes. However, they know they are being watched in Washington by the incoming US administration. They also know that Israel will not be restrained by the US. Iran and other anti-western countries and proxies have believed over the last decade that time is on their side. Do they think that the US election has changed the clock? This is the big question they will face in the next two months.
Seth Mandel: The Birth of ‘the Jewish Vote’?
Similarly, elections in the modern era have been keeping track of the “Jewish votes.” But there was no evidence for the existence of “the Jewish vote.”

This year, that has changed. I have heard more than one person say something to effect of: “I wasn’t shocked by Oct. 7 in Israel but Oct. 8 in America.” Meaning that the horrific massacres carried out by Hamas were perfectly in character for a terrorist group that exists solely to carry out the mass murder of Jews. But many Jews here and around the world did not expect to see the streets and public squares of major American cities fill to the brim with people celebrating those atrocities. They did not expect to see U.S. campuses become, overnight, outposts of explicit Hamas and Hezbollah superfans. They were surprised that members of the U.S. Congress would make pilgrimage to the tentifadas calling for genocide against the Jews, and that a Democratic congresswoman would headline a China-backed conference whose organizers were affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a designated terrorist organization. They were unnerved by the successful campaign to prevent a Jewish governor from becoming Harris’s running mate.

Jewish Democrats did not, by and large, stop being Democrats. But they did stop being invisible—at least in Michigan and Pennsylvania. What this means for the concept of the “Jewish vote” going forward will not be apparent for some time, because it’s never clear whether one election constitutes an outlier or the beginning of a trend. Additionally, there are not many Jewish voters, at least compared to other politically prominent ethnic and racial groups, no matter how you count them—and so there will be even fewer Jewish voters who start to consistently vote on Jewish issues.

Jews don’t need to be “emancipated” from the Democratic Party—or any party. But they do need to be emancipated from their invisibility to the major parties. If that is changing, it is a change for the better.


Ben Shapiro: Turning point of election was when Trump visited Rebbe's grave

Melanie Phillips: Against all odds
So when faced with the evidence of the disaster that was Kamala Harris’s candidacy, they simply didn’t see what the rest of us saw. They didn’t see that her inability to answer any question other than in gibberish “word-salads” was evidence of someone who was totally unsuited to public office. Instead, the mainstream media censored those episodes on the grounds that it was their duty to ensure she was elected because the alternative couldn’t be allowed to happen.

They didn’t register the copious evidence on social media of African- Americans and Hispanics declaring themselves Trump voters. They didn’t acknowledge — couldn’t possibly acknowledge — the disaster of Barack Obama’s arrogant attempt to bully young black men into voting for Kamala, a desperate move which backfired so very badly when these young men declared themselves insulted by a man who had done nothing for them while he was president.

But when what they deem unconscionable really does happen despite all their efforts, it’s as if the world has turned backwards on its axis. It’s an offence against nature itself. It simply cannot be.

Hence the titanic effort by the liberal establishment in Britain to reverse the 2016 Brexit vote. Hence the unconstitutional and probably illegal three-year attempt by elements in the justice department, FBI and Democratic party — facilitated by a shockingly partisan media suppressing the truth — to lever Trump out of office the first time round.

Lo and behold, there are already threats to repeat that attempted coup against democracy — by those who in the same breath are intoning that Trump will now destroy democracy. In The Atlantic, Tom Nichols writes:
After Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, then–Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed to make Obama a one-term president, and obstructed him at every turn. McConnell, of course, cared only about seizing power for his party, and later, he could not muster that same bravado when faced with Trump’s assaults on the government. Patriotic Americans and their representatives might now make a similar commitment, but for better aims: Although they cannot remove Trump from office, they can declare their determination to prevent Trump from implementing the ghastly policies he committed himself to while campaigning.

The kinds of actions that will stop Trump from destroying America in 2025 are the same ones that stopped many of his plans the first time around. They are not flashy, and they will require sustained attention, because the next battles for democracy will be fought by lawyers and legislators, in Washington and in every state capitol. They will be fought by citizens banding together in associations and movements to rouse others from the sleepwalk that has led America into this moment.

Get that? “Patriotic” Americans must now prevent Trump from carrying out the pledges he made to the American people on the basis of which they voted for him— the essence of a democratic election.

Liberals having this meltdown are accusing Trump of behaviour of which they themselves are guilty: contempt for democracy, suborning the constitutional order, lying, bullying, extremism, suppressing contrary opinions and promoting hatred and division. Psychologists call this kind of accusatory behaviour “projection”. It is a mental disorder.

The chances of this election result resulting in such people questioning their own mindset and assumptions, which have now so spectacularly blown up in their faces, are very slim. A notable exception has been Scott Jennings, who in his rare media mea culpa also said the following:
I also feel like this election was something of an indictment of the political information complex. We’ve been sitting around it for the last couple of weeks, and the story that was portrayed was not true…all these gimmicks we were told were going to push Harris over the line, and we were ignoring the fundamentals: inflation, a feeling like they were barely able to tread water at best…for all of us who cover elections, and talk about elections, and do this on a day-to-day basis, we have to figure out how to understand, talk to and listen to the half of the country that rose up tonight and said, we’ve had enough.

Absolutely correct. Elsewhere, however, liberal commentators are employing funereal tones today as if they are in mourning. And of course, they’re lashing out at the people they say are to blame.

They blame Harris for failing to be different enough from Joe Biden.

They blame women for unaccountably failing to vote for her.

They blame people without a college degree for not having the intelligence to agree with them.

They blame the dark forces of human nature.

They blame Elon Musk for existing.

What such people can’t see — and will never see — is that the people to blame are themselves.
Ayaan Hirsi Ali: A Victory for America
Incredibly, it is also the Republican Party of the working class, having once again persuaded unions and the Rust Belt to put their faith in Trump. If the GOP is capable of keeping this coalition together, its future is golden.

But I strongly believe that Trump’s victory is also good for the Democratic Party. It is time for the party to start the reckoning they put off after 2016, when they went down the rabbit hole of the Russian election-meddling hoax.

Today the Democratic Party is seen as an unlikely coalition of globalist oligarchs, tyrannical bureaucrats, Woke Socialists and Hamas-cheering Islamists. There are still decent, loyal and moderate Democrats who can and must reclaim the party from these anti-American forces.

And I see this election result as a good outcome, too, for what we used to call the mainstream media. Of all the institutions of America they command the least trust among the public. Perhaps now is the time for them to see that histrionic lying and fear-mongering may be profitable for a while, but the ensuing loss of credibility is too high of a price to pay. The public has found an alternative way of gathering, analyzing and otherwise processing news, information and forming opinions.

As far as policies are concerned—with the Republicans set to take the White House, the Senate and increase their House majority—this is a golden opportunity to reshape the future of America. Donald Trump closed his campaign with the promise of a new Golden Age.

If he uses this victory well, that promise is within reach. We need to drain the swamp. Elon can start his Department of Government Efficiency straight away, bringing back badly needed accountability to government spending. He needs to eliminate not only the waste but also DEI programs and other bureaucratic menaces to meritocracy. It’s also time to rescue the education system from the ideologues and anti-American propagandists.
Will Republicans Have a Trifecta? So Far, House Returns Say Yes.
Less than 24 hours after the first polls closed in what was teased as one of the closest elections in U.S. history, the only thing standing in the way of a Republican trifecta in Washington, D.C., is the House.

The GOP secured a Senate majority just before midnight on Tuesday. Former president Donald Trump wrapped up his return to the White House shortly thereafter. But the House remains too close to call—and could for some time as votes trickle in from California and other West Coast states.

Still, Republicans have an advantage in the race for the lower chamber. They are likely to enter the 119th Congress with a narrow majority, much like the one they hold now.

As of early Wednesday afternoon, Democrats hold 193 seats, while Republicans hold 210, 8 short of a majority. The GOP has won a number of high-profile swing seats, with Ryan Mackenzie defeating three-term incumbent Democrat Susan Wild in Pennsylvania and Don Bacon holding on to his toss-up seat in Nebraska, denying Democrats a top flip opportunity.

Many of the outstanding toss-ups are in California, a state that takes a notoriously long time to produce results thanks to its reliance on mail voting and permissive election laws that allow for ballots to be counted one week after polls close if they are postmarked by Election Day.

That means eager House observers will likely have to wait days—if not longer—to see a majority officially confirmed. Still, House Republicans are bullish about their standing in the Golden State.

So far, the GOP holds leads in California's 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, and 45th districts, all of which are considered some of the most competitive in the country. In the 27th, 41st, and 45th, roughly 70 percent of the vote is in, with Republicans leading by 2, 1, and 5 points, respectively. Close to half of the vote is reported in the 13th and 22nd districts, where Republicans lead by 3 and 10 points, respectively.

A clean sweep of those seats would be a nightmare for Democrats, whose path to a majority centered on California. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put all five of the aforementioned districts on its "Red to Blue" list, the committee's "highly competitive and tested program" that "equips top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support."


Wall Street Soars To Record Highs Following Trump's Victory
Wall Street’s main indexes reached record highs on Wednesday after former president Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

The Dow Jones jumped 2.82 percent to an all-time record of 43,499, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.62 percent to 5,887 and the Nasdaq rose 1.69 percent to 18,860, both setting all-time highs, Reuters reported. The dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and Bitcoin also soared after Trump secured 277 electoral votes in the early hours of Wednesday, surpassing the 270 needed for victory.

The surge comes as Wall Street is anticipating pro-business initiatives, including tax cuts and deregulation, under a second Trump administration. Republicans have also regained control of the Senate, with the House outcome yet to be determined.

"With the possibility of higher stimulus and reduced restrictions or regulations on industries, we could end up seeing the market post a strong rally between now and the end of the year," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

Wall Street’s volatility index, or VIX, fell nearly 5 points to its lowest since September. VIX is a closely watched measure of expected volatility in the stock market over the next 30 days.

"There was relief that there was a quick and undisputed election result," senior market analyst David Morrison said.
Jewish groups applaud Trump, hope he will stay focused on Israel, fighting Jew-hatred
American Jewish organizations congratulated former President Donald Trump on his election as the 47th U.S. president.

The Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations congratulated Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), the vice-president elect, and wished them “the best as the transition process begins and the two prepare to assume office on January 20, 2025.”

“We trust that the new administration will work diligently to combat antisemitism and advance the bilateral U.S.-Israel relationship by building on accomplishments from President Trump’s first term including the historic Abraham Accords,” stated Harriet Schleifer and William Daroff, chair and CEO respectively of the umbrella group.

“We also congratulate Vice President Kamala Harris on a hard fought and spirited campaign and we wish her the very best,” the Conference of Presidents leaders stated.

They added that the forthcoming Trump administration “will have no time to lose in addressing the many challenges the country faces at home and abroad.”

“Whether it is confronting the threat of a bellicose Iran and its nuclear aspirations, Israel’s just war against Hamas, Hezbollah and other terror proxies or the domestic battle against antisemitism and other forms of hate, President-elect Trump will have to grapple with a host of issues of great import to our community,” they stated. “We stand ready to provide our help, counsel and prayers, in the hope that the new administration’s success will be the entire country’s.”


Israel Reacts to Trump’s Victory | Israel Undiplomatic w/ Mark Regev & Ruthie Blum
Israelis this morning woke up to the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and breathed a collective sigh of relief.

They’ll soon find out if their high hopes are valid or if President Trump switches course in his second term. And how will a Trump presidency affect the current war and efforts to free the hostages?

JNS senior contributing editor Ruthie Blum and Mark Regev, former Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom—both former advisers at the Prime Minister's Office—discuss all this and more on the latest episode of "Israel Undiplomatic"!


US Vote Could Cause an EARTHQUAKE in the Middle East w/Ambassador Michael Oren | The Quad Interviews
Everyone has an opinion on Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, including Israel’s friends and foes.

Join Jerusalem's special envoy for innovation, Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, for an interview with former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren. He’ll be sharing expert analysis of how he thinks the elections could affect America and the Middle East in the months and even years to come.


Commentary: The Trump Triumph
Well, you know what we're talking about today. Give a listen.




Morocco reasserts ties with Israel for first time since start of war on Gaza
For the first time since the outbreak of Israel's war on Gaza, Morocco has reaffirmed its diplomatic ties with Israel, despite widespread anti-normalisation protests and sentiment across the North African kingdom.

In an interview with French outlet Le Point, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita defended Morocco's agreement with Israel, arguing that maintaining relations with Tel Aviv does not signify endorsement of Israeli government actions.

"Morocco has strongly condemned, at the highest levels, Israeli attacks on civilians, hospitals, and schools, deeming them unacceptable", he said in an interview published on 2 November.

"This approach should not be seen as abandoning the Palestinian cause. Morocco's position on Palestine remains a priority," Bourita added, underscoring the Moroccan kingdom's Jewish heritage as a basis for this complex relationship.

Morocco was once home to a quarter million Jews. Now only 2,000 live in Morocco and around a million Jews of Moroccan origin are based in Israel.

Nevertheless, the Moroccan Observatory Against Normalisation has denounced Bourita's remarks as "delusional and false," alleging that Rabat has "done nothing to prove support for Palestinians since the Gaza war began."

"Mr Bourita hides behind untruths. Maintaining ties with a state whose lawmakers oppose the two-state solution is not supporting Palestinians", Aziz Hanaoui, a member of the pro-Palestine group, told The New Arab.

In July, Israel's parliament overwhelmingly voted against the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Moroccan pro-Palestine groups have also criticised Bourita's invocation of Jewish heritage as misleading, calling it an attempt to legitimise ties with a state "committing genocide."

Morocco normalised ties with Israel in 2020 under a US brokered deal, exchanging diplomatic relations for US recognition of Morocco's claim over Western Sahara.

Presented as a strategic move for "national interest," the deal avoided immediate backlash, even from typically critical groups like the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) which took part in signing the accord as a majority party at the time.

However, since the start of Israel's war on Gaza, several parties and groups have broken their silence and joined the widespread weekly anti-normalisation demonstrations.

The PJD has also distanced itself from the accord, claiming it had been pressured into the agreement.


Dem Rep. Jahana Hayes Survives After Embracing Anti-Israel Constituents
Rep. Jahana Hayes (D.) prevailed over former state senator George Logan (R.) in Connecticut's only contentious congressional district, a key win for Democrats in one of their most vulnerable House seats.

Hayes led Logan by 6 points with 88 percent of the vote reported when the Associated Press called the race just after 2 a.m. Wednesday.

Hayes, who rose to prominence as National Teacher of the Year during the Obama administration, was first elected to Congress in November 2018. Since then, she has been entangled in contentious races, edging Logan in 2022 by roughly 2,000 votes. This year, Connecticut's Fifth Congressional District was one of the most vulnerable for Democrats.

In March, Hayes reiterated her support for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), which she praised in a 2019 letter. In the letter, she recognized the anti-Semitic group's work "to educate the community about anti-Muslim hate."

CAIR has links to Hamas, and its leadership has described Jewish groups and synagogues as "enemies" that are "working to harm you." Executive director Nihad Awad said he was "happy to see" Hamas kill Jews during the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel. The group also blamed the assault on the Jewish state, urging lawmakers in October 2023 to address the "Israeli government's apartheid policies" and other "root causes of Mideast violence."

Hayes was one of several dozen congressional Democrats who wrote letters in support of CAIR in 2019. The group used the messages to tout support among congressional leaders at its Washington, D.C., gala.
Soros-Backed Prosecutor George Gascón Ousted as Californians Backtrack on Soft-on-Crime Reforms
California voters have begun unwinding the Golden State's soft-on-crime experiment, ousting Los Angeles's progressive district attorney George Gascón and restoring some criminal penalties for drugs and theft.

Gascón trailed his challenger, former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman, by more than 20 points with 59 percent of the votes counted when the Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning. Hochman previously ran for California attorney general as a Republican but registered as an independent for this race. The "rightward shift across America is heartbreaking," Gascón said in a concession statement.

Gascón, whose first campaign in 2020 was backed by liberal megadonor George Soros, spent his term facing criticism that his soft-on-crime policies, like ending cash bail, led to a crime surge. He has also drawn fire for his treatment of victims, including suppressing evidence from parole boards that have released violent criminals to offend again.

Statewide voters also passed a ballot measure that scales back Prop. 47, the decade-old law that wiped criminal penalties for shoplifters who steal items worth $950 or less and for holding most hard drugs. The Associated Press called the measure, Prop. 36, just before midnight when it had garnered more than 70 percent support with nearly 42 percent of the vote.

Even though it doesn’t fully repeal the 2014 law and requires treatment rather than lock-ups for some drug offenses, California Democrats and their soft-on-crime donors tried to assure its defeat and keep it off the ballot. Prop. 36 does, however, allow prosecutors to charge three-time offenders with a felony and warns dealers that they could be charged with murder if their drugs kill someone.

Prop. 36’s success is a political loss for Governor Gavin Newsom (D.), who tried to keep it off the ballot, along with the ACLU and major unions, including the powerful California Teachers Association.




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