Wednesday, November 27, 2024

11/27 Links Pt1: A necessary though imperfect deal caps Netanyahu’s finest hour; This ceasefire has exposed Iran’s impotence; Trump Cabinet Picks Face Violent Threats

From Ian:

Jonathan Tobin: A necessary though imperfect deal caps Netanyahu’s finest hour
The myth of Hezbollah exploded
Iran and its Lebanese henchmen had counted on Israel being too intimidated by the prospect of another round of fighting with a Hezbollah force that had more than 120,000 rockets and missiles pointed at it. The evisceration of the leadership of the terrorist group and sustained damage done to its forces and arms caches confounded those who thought the Jewish state was too weak to achieve such a result. While Hezbollah and Iran will over time reorganize, rearm and recoup their losses, they also now know that their hubristic confidence that they were invincible has been exposed as a myth.

The fact that Hezbollah was forced by its losses to accept a ceasefire without it being tied to an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is also an enormous setback for Iran’s multifront war strategy.

Though the next two months will remain a period of extreme danger for Israel, Netanyahu’s decision should also solidify his relationship with the incoming Trump administration. The president-elect has been open about his hope that Israel will conclude its wars in Gaza and Lebanon before he is sworn in on Jan. 20.

A deal that would disarm Hamas, guarantee it could not come back to power in Gaza and gain the release of the remaining 101 Israeli hostages still being held by the terrorists may be unlikely, given the fanaticism of the Islamists even after their abandonment by their Lebanese allies. Yet by concluding a deal with Hezbollah, Netanyahu can say he’s done as much as he can to give Trump a clean slate and be able to further strengthen the U.S. obligation to back the Jewish state to the hilt if the terrorists violate the accord.

The ceasefire in the north will also enable the IDF to concentrate on the tough task of mopping up Hamas guerrillas in Gaza after Netanyahu’s staunch refusal to accept Biden’s ultimatums to stand down made the destruction of their formal military forces possible.

Restoring deterrence
Oct. 7 was an enormous blow to Israel’s ability to deter its enemies and undermined confidence in its reputation as the “strong horse” in the region that could inspire Arab states to resist Iran. But the victories that the IDF achieved, albeit at the terrible price of approximately 900 soldiers and police officers slain fighting their nation’s genocidal foes, have restored its strategic position. With Hezbollah weakened and Hamas on the run, as well as with much of its own air defenses being taken out by Israeli military action, Tehran is far weaker than it was on Oct. 6, 2023.

None of that will convince those who hate Netanyahu—and falsely accuse him of undermining democracy and being a corrupt authoritarian—to admire him. Nor will they stop their incessant resistance to his government, whereby he is not only blamed for Oct. 7 (a guilt he shares with the entire leadership of the IDF and Israel’s intelligence establishment) but for Hamas’s refusal to release the hostages.

The lion’s share of the credit for the victories the IDF has achieved belongs to the soldiers who paid for them in blood. But honest observers must also acknowledge that it’s not likely that any other conceivable Israeli leader would have had the guts and the stiff spine to fend off a year of American pressure that made them possible. Certainly not Netanyahu’s political opponents Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. During his brief time as temporary prime minister in 2022, Lapid folded in the face of far less American pressure to give up Israeli natural-gas fields to Hezbollah in a failed attempt at appeasement. Nor can one imagine anyone else in the Likud-led coalition government having the knowledge or the resolve that Netanyahu showed time and again.

The prime minister has been around too long, behaved too arrogantly and made too many enemies to ever be given universal praise, no matter what he’s done. But while opinion about him will always be mixed at best, his post-Oct. 7 stand has been his finest hour. One can only hope future historians will give him his due for what he’s accomplished in the last year.
John Podhoretz: Swiss Cheese, the Sot, and the Ceasefire
The 60-day ceasefire to which Israel has agreed, thus pausing its efforts to degrade Hezbollah in Lebanon to such a degree that 60,000 Israelis can begin to return to their homes near the Lebanese border, may exist because of blackmail. Blackmail from the United States. Netanyahu told the Israeli cabinet that if they did not agree to the Biden terms, the administration would move against the Jewish state in the U.N. Security Council. This threat was a first of its kind for any president; even Barack Obama only allowed a hostile Security Council action to go through without a veto in his final act of aggression against Jerusalem in 2017. This time Biden was threatening to lead the U.N. against its only true ally in the Middle East.

If what Netanyahu told his cabinet is true, and Biden’s own statement yesterday would seem to provide some confirmation, what we’re seeing here is the final capitulation by this government to the idea that Israel deserves to be held responsible for the crime of defending itself. Not only against the terrorist state that invaded it last October 7, but also against the terrorist state-within-a-state on its Northern border that has fired rockets at it for 13 months without letup, the catamite army of Iran that takes orders from the theocracy determined to destroy the Jewish state and all Jews worldwide.

So the Biden administration is concluding its time in office as a power player in the Middle East praising itself for its toughness in restraining Israel’s just cause. But in the name of what exactly? Well, a “ceasefire,” of course. Hallelujah. Yes, Biden and his people have secured a ceasefire, as though a ceasefire means anything but its literal definition—a pause in the use of projectile force. It means nothing else. It does not mean peace. It does not mean negotiations. It does not mean a change in the relative positions of the forces at war. It’s a freeze. And when such a freeze freezes the military that’s on the march, it implicitly favors the side that is on its back foot. Thus America has, in effect, sided with Hezbollah.

End scene. For a minute there, after October 7, Joe Biden knew Israel was in the right. But that knowledge quickly fell through one of the holes in the swiss cheese that is either his currently decaying octogenarian brain or just the same fourth-rate cognitive machine he has used to such pointless effect for more than half a century in Washington.
Richard Kemp: This ceasefire has exposed Iran’s impotence
So much for Hezbollah and its puppeteers in Tehran. But why is Israel agreeing to a ceasefire while it holds the upper hand over the terrorist gang that forced tens of thousands of citizens to evacuate from their homes in the north? There are two major issues, both to do with US pressure.

First, if this ceasefire had not been secured, it is probable that Joe Biden would have allowed through, and even himself orchestrated, a binding UN Security Council Resolution demanding a cessation of hostilities, potentially accompanied by a UN-mandated arms embargo on Israel. It would have been his cynical last ditch effort to rescue something at least from his woeful legacy on foreign affairs. Second, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alluded to during his speech on the ceasefire, the Biden White House has been imposing a partial arms embargo against Israel that included vital munitions and combat equipment including 2,000 pound bombs. After more than a year fighting a war on seven battlefronts that is a significant constraint.

Despite Biden’s efforts to hogtie Israel, there is still more work to be done against Hezbollah. Therefore the current ceasefire can best be seen as a diplomatic bridge between Joe Biden’s White House, intent on appeasing Tehran, and a Trump administration that is likely to be much more supportive of Israel’s defensive needs.

Nowhere will that be more important than over the Iranian regime. As well as directing, funding and arming the war against Israel, Tehran has been behind proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, strikes on Saudi Arabia and the UAE and assaults on international shipping in the Red Sea. Twice since last April, Iran has launched major missile attacks directly into Israel. As with its actions in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel’s response to those was constrained by US pressure.

More dangerous still, Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuclear capability to threaten Israel, the Middle East and the world. But Iran is now exposed more than ever before. The primary purpose of Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of rocketry, more extensive in number than most sovereign nations possess, was to deter against Israeli or US military assault on Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme. That deterrent is largely gone and the IDF substantially destroyed Iran’s air defences in its retaliatory strikes in October.

That means Israel is in an unprecedented position to put a stop to the Iranian menace. Decisive action against the Islamic Republic was a red line for Biden. But we must hope that Trump will give Jerusalem a fair wind, both to scuttle Iran’s nuclear project and to put some more holes into Hezbollah’s rotting hull.
Full text: The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal
‘Cessation of Hostilities’ document sets out ‘commitments’ by Israel and Lebanon intended ‘to enable civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their lands and homes’


JPost Editorial: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal brings criticism and mistrust
Their mistrust is understandable. Northern residents are not just statistics in this conflict; they are families forced to abandon their homes, children growing up with air raid sirens as a backdrop, and communities grappling with the emotional and financial toll of prolonged displacement.

To ask them to trust in another diplomatic promise requires more than words. It requires tangible action and unwavering commitment to their security.

Simultaneously, the critics who demand a complete dismantling of Hezbollah must grapple with the realities of the moment. Israel is already engaged in an intensive war against Hamas in Gaza. Fighting on two fronts indefinitely is neither sustainable nor strategic.

The deal, while imperfect, offers breathing room. It provides an opportunity to address broader threats without overextending Israel’s military and political resources.

Israel’s challenge is to prove that this agreement is not another hollow promise.

Clear communication
The government must communicate clearly and transparently with the public, particularly the northern residents, about the measures to secure their safety. Regular updates, visible preparations for potential future conflict, and a steadfast refusal to compromise on critical security provisions are essential.

Israelis, particularly those in the North, have every right to voice their doubts and demand accountability. Their voices must be heard, not dismissed as inconvenient dissent.

This agreement is a gamble, but so is war. The truce provides a chance to recalibrate, pressure Hamas, and secure international support – all crucial in the long term. Israel needs this deal, but it also needs to remember that the northern residents are not collateral damage in a grand strategy. They are the nation’s heart, and their safety must remain the ultimate priority.

Trust in diplomacy is earned, not assumed. If this agreement is to be more than a pause in the storm, it must lead to real, lasting security for those who have paid the heaviest price. Only then can the northern residents and the rest of the country begin to move forward with hope rather than fear.
The Cease-Fire in Lebanon Depends on Israeli Resolve, Not the Guarantors’ Enforcement
Normally, a cease-fire agreement is concluded by the two belligerent parties. But when it comes to Israel, normal diplomatic rules never seem to apply. Noah Rothman notes that this deal was reached by Israel and Lebanon with French and American guarantees:
The problem with this arrangement is that Israel was never at war with the Lebanese government. It embarked on a campaign of hostilities against Hizballah, a distinct terrorist entity over which Beirut has limited influence.

The deal, which treats Hizballah as an adjacent third party to the conflict, compels it to end its armed presence near Israel and relocate its heavy weapons north of the Litani. That’s a familiar demand—one that is codified in the tragically unenforced United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Perhaps that’s why the terrorist entity does not seem all that displeased by recent developments.

Why then would Israel agree to the same terms of the 2006 deal that brought about the current crisis? Ron Ben-Yishai writes:
The current agreement carries importance in two key areas. First, it ends the ongoing fighting, allowing the IDF to reorganize for more effective border defense while enhancing intelligence capabilities to detect Hizballah violations as they occur. This would enable Israel to act swiftly against infractions while Hizballah remains weakened and unable to mount a strong response.

Rothman, Ben-Yishai, and many Israelis agree that neither Lebanon nor the UN, France, or America can be expected to enforce the deal, and Hizballah can’t be expected to uphold it. Therefore, Ben-Yishai writes, what matters most are Israel’s actions:
According to reports, Israel will have immediate response and enforcement rights if Hizballah attacks its sovereignty or citizens using rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles, explosives planted along the border, or infiltrations into its territory. However, Israel already possesses the inherent right to respond to such blatant violations. Instead of delivering a decisive and destructive response to border breaches or rocket fire—often carried out by Palestinians under Hizballah’s direction—Israel has repeatedly opted for restraint.

Israel’s natural right to self-defense does not require codification in any agreement. . . . What Israel’s leadership—especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—needs is the resolve to stop tolerating such violations and to respond firmly. The real challenge lies in addressing the more subtle, long-term violations that Hizballah has engaged in for years, building its infrastructure above and below ground, often concealed within Shiite villages near the border and surrounding wilderness.
Hezbollah testing the IDF's reactions to ceasefire violations
Within hours of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire going into effect, Hezbollah was already testing the IDF’s reactions to violations.

In Kafr Kila and other villages, Hezbollah forces started to try to enter areas the IDF has defined as no-go zones for them.

So far, the IDF has used warning shots to “convince” these violators to turn around, and that has worked.But a short time after the IDF announced its warning shot responses, Defense Minister Israel Katz said this was insufficient.

Katz said if Hezbollah violators are unarmed but moving where they should not be, they must be arrested, and if there is even a hint of them presenting a danger, they should be shot and killed.

Following Katz’s statement, IDF sources respectfully disagreed. According to the sources, each case must be looked at based on the specific circumstances. Also, the general tone of violations and respecting the ceasefire deal has an impact, said the sources.

Who will call the shots on this? IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi? Katz? Mid-level lieutenant-colonels and other commanders in the field? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself?

Cross-border smuggling from Syria
This is for lighter violations.

If Hezbollah seems to be trying to carry out a more dangerous violation with more forces or more powerful weaponry, such as rockets or drones, when will the IDF shoot bullets, when shells, and when missiles from the air?

There does not seem to be agreement on a lot of these issues. While the political echelon is supposed to make broad policy, some of these rules of engagement questions are traditionally decided by the army, and some by commanders in the field who are closest to the complex dilemmas in question.

IDF sources said they will sternly enforce the deal, but on the other hand, they do not want to blow up the deal over a small violation.
Hezbollah was planning to use chemical weapons against IDF soldiers in Lebanon
The IDF discovered gas masks, chemical materials, and sedatives in the possession of Hezbollah operatives two months ago, around the start of Israel's incursion into Lebanon, suggesting that the terrorist organization had intended to use chemical weapons to abduct Israeli soldiers and civilians, Walla learned on Wednesday.

This report comes shortly after the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon came into effect, also on Wednesday, where the IDF and Hezbollah will hold their fire for the next 60 days, after which the ceasefire will become permanent, according to the agreement.

The ceasefire agreement concludes more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah, allowing hundreds of thousands of residents on both sides of the border to gradually return to their homes. Over 3,500 Lebanese were killed and more than 15,000 injured in the conflict, which escalated after Hezbollah’s initial attack on Israel a day after Hamas's massacre and terrorist attacks on October 7.

Approximately 150 Israelis—soldiers and civilians—were killed by Hezbollah, with hundreds injured.

Hours up to the ceasefire
In the hours leading up to the ceasefire, exchanges of fire were recorded between the sides. The central bus station in Kiryat Shmona suffered a direct hit from a missile launched from Lebanon. Two buses caught fire following the strike, and another fire broke out at the site. At the same time, sirens sounded in dozens of northern communities as well as in the Sharon and Triangle regions due to rocket launches from Lebanon.

Shortly after midnight, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued an evacuation warning to residents of the Dahiyeh district in Beirut. Lebanese media reported heavy airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force in the neighborhood. Subsequently, the IDF issued two additional evacuation warnings to the neighborhood's residents.
Sen. Ted Cruz Statement on Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, released the following statement regarding the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah:

“Our Israeli allies have accomplished enormous military successes over the last year against the Iranian-controlled terrorist group Hezbollah, killing thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, eliminating Hezbollah's entire command, and dismantling its infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions have directly contributed to vital American national security interests, including directly by liquidating terrorist leaders who had the blood of hundreds of Americans on their hands. Indeed, the U.S.-Israel relationship is at the core of U.S. interests in the Middle East, and American policy should be to provide unequivocal military and diplomatic support to our Israeli allies to fully ensure their security.

“However, the Biden administration has spent the last four years pathologically obsessed with undermining Israel and boosting Iran, including by coercing our Israeli allies to cede maritime territory to Hezbollah. They are now using the transition period to the Trump administration and a Republican Congress to try to lock in those efforts - and to constrain the incoming administration - by establishing what they believe to be irreversible diplomatic, legal, and military policies. However, these and similar international policies are not irreversible. This month, I led a letter co-signed by 10 other Senators saying that the U.S. will fundamentally reevaluate our relationship with the U.N. and the Palestinians if Palestinian President Abbas fulfills a pledge he made to secure Israel's expulsion from the U.N. General Assembly. Last week, I joined my colleagues in vowing to act against the International Criminal Court for undermining American and Israeli interests by issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, and said everyone involved in the decision should face American sanctions.

“I am deeply disturbed both by reports that Obama-Biden officials exerted enormous pressure on our Israeli allies to accept this ceasefire and by how those officials are characterizing Israel's obligations. This pressure and these statements are further efforts to undermine Israel and constrain the incoming Trump administration. Obama-Biden officials pressured our Israeli allies into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons they needed to defend themselves and counter Hezbollah, and by threatening to facilitate a further, broader, binding international arms embargo through the United Nations. Obama-Biden officials are already trying to use Israel's acceptance of this ceasefire to ensure that Hezbollah and other Iranian terrorist groups remain intact across Lebanon, and to limit Israel's future freedom of action and self-defense. Administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, today even downplayed Israel's right under the ceasefire to strike terrorist groups in Lebanon when those groups pose imminent threats.

“These constraints have been rejected by our Israeli allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that under the ceasefire Israel retains full freedom of action to counter Hezbollah if the group attacks Israel or tries to rebuild its terrorist infrastructure. The United States should allow and assist Israel in doing so, and I am committed to working closely with the Trump administration and my colleagues in the incoming Congress to ensure they are able to so.”


Call Me Back Podcast: CEASEFIRE – with David Horovitz
Hosted by Dan Senor
On October 8th, 2023, Hezbollah joined the war against Israel. Now, nearly fifteen months later, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon may be imminent.

As of this evening in Israel, the Israeli security cabinet has officially approved a ceasefire deal with Lebanon. Under the proposal, Israeli forces would withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days, while Hezbollah forces would relocate farther north, effectively establishing a buffer zone. The Lebanese Army would be stationed in southern Lebanon, to ensure that Hezbollah remains north of the Litani River.

To analyze the key terms of the agreement, and help us unpack its military, political, and social implications, our guest is David Horowitz.

David Horovitz is the founding editor of The Times of Israel. He was previously the editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, and editor and publisher of The Jerusalem Report.


Commentary Podcast: Why Did Israel Agree?
We try to make sense out of Israel's participation in the ceasefire that began today—and which Hezbollah may already have violated. Did Israel actually want this because it needed time to recover its strength? Or did it have to agree because it needed weapons from the United States that were being withheld? Oh, and what on earth was with that weird Kamala Harris video in which she appeared to be, shall we say, not entirely sober?


Ceasefire Firestorm! Debating Israel's Truce With Hezbollah | Israel Undiplomatic
Israelis woke up on Nov. 27 to something very unusual: quiet on the northern front with Lebanon. While that comes as a relief, there is little doubt that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization will soon be back to its usual antics.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Ceasefire Context
03:05 Debate on the Ceasefire Agreement
05:59 Critique of International Involvement
08:49 Strategic Implications of the Ceasefire
12:12 Internal and External Security Concerns
14:59 The Role of Global Anti-Semitism
17:46 Israel's Sovereignty and Self-Defense
21:03 Political Dynamics and Leadership
23:55 Conclusion and Future Outlook


Tablet Podcast: The Disastrous Lebanon Ceasefire Deal, with Tony Badran
Earlier this week, Israel signed a controversial ceasefire deal with Lebanon, brokered by the Biden administration. Tablet’s news editor Tony Badran joins Liel to explain why the deal is the culmination of Barack Obama’s anti-Israeli vision for the region, how it might complicate the Trump administration’s foreign policy, and what reasons, if any, Israel had for signing such an agreement.


Will Qatar join the fight against terrorism?
Qatar’s reported deliberations over expelling Hamas leaders mark a pivotal moment in Hamas’ war of aggression against Israel.

The decision comes after the horrific revelation that Hamas executed hostages, including dual U.S.-Israeli citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin, in late August and the seemingly moribund hostage negotiations. Whether Qatar’s ultimatum to Hamas is real remains to be seen, but expulsion is insufficient. The gravity of Hamas’ crimes and Qatar’s partnership in counterterrorism demands more than exile; these leaders must be arrested, extradited to Israel or the United States, and sent to Guantanamo Bay to face justice.

Hamas’ leaders have long operated in the shadows, insulated from the consequences of their actions. Figures such as Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh al-Arouri orchestrated the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre from their comfortable perches abroad, relying on states such as Lebanon, Qatar and Turkey to shield them.

These atrocities — including the murder of hostages, indiscriminate rocket attacks and systematic targeting of civilians — place them in the same category as other internationally recognized terrorists. Allowing them to avoid arrest would embolden not only Hamas but also other groups that exploit the leniency of host nations.

Qatar’s role in hosting Hamas’ political bureau has been a diplomatic liability. Expelling these leaders might repair some damage, but exile merely shifts the problem elsewhere.

History shows that terrorist leaders in exile can regroup and continue their operations. After the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, mastermind Ramsey Yousef fled to Pakistan, where he continued plotting attacks before his eventual capture and extradition to the United States. Similarly, Osama bin Laden was expelled first from Saudi Arabia and then from Sudan before directing al Qaeda’s operations from Afghanistan. Exile is no substitute for justice or peace.

Arresting and extraditing Hamas leaders would be a defining moment for Qatar. Israel has the greatest claim to prosecute these individuals, given the scale of the atrocities committed on its soil. Still, Hamas also has the blood of dozens of Americans on its hands. In September, the Department of Justice unsealed indictments against several Hamas leaders in Qatar, including Khaled Meshal. The decision to extradite Hamas leaders to the U.S. lies in Qatar’s hands.


‘Intimidation, violence will not deter us,’ Trump rep says, after threats against cabinet nominees
“With President Trump as our example, dangerous acts of intimidation and violence will not deter us,” Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, stated on Wednesday, after threats against nominees for the future administration.

“Last night and this morning, several of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees and administration appointees were targeted in violent, un-American threats to their lives and those who live with them,” she said.

“These attacks ranged from bomb threats to ‘swatting.’ In response, law enforcement and other authorities acted quickly to ensure the safety of those who were targeted,” Leavitt added. “President Trump and the entire transition team are grateful for their swift action.”

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) noted the other two assassination attempts against Trump in the past few months.

“Now some of his cabinet nominees and their families are facing bomb threats. This is dangerous and unhinged. It is not who we are in America,” he wrote. “Joe Biden and all Democrat leaders have an obligation to speak up and condemn this now.”

Biden had not commented on the threats at press time. Kamala Harris, the U.S. vice president and the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, also hadn’t commented at press time.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), chair of the House Republican Conference and the president-elect’s nominee for ambassador to the United Nations, learned of a bomb threat at her residence as she, “her husband and their 3-year-old son were driving home to Saratoga County from Washington for Thanksgiving,” her office stated.

“We are incredibly appreciative of the extraordinary dedication of law enforcement officers who keep our communities safe 24/7,” the congresswoman’s office added. “We want to share our best wishes to the upstate New York community for a happy and safe Thanksgiving. We are especially grateful to our law enforcement officers and military families who are on duty over the holiday season.”

Lee Zeldin, a former Republican congressman and Trump’s pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency, wrote that “a pipe bomb threat targeting me and my family at our home today was sent in with a pro-Palestinian themed message.”

“My family and I were not home at the time and are safe. We are working with law enforcement to learn more as this situation develops,” said Zeldin, who is Jewish. “We are thankful for the swift actions taken by local officers to keep our family, neighbors and local community secure.”

Brooke Rollins, Trump’s pick for agriculture secretary, wrote on Wednesday that “this morning, we learned that a threat was issued against our home and family.”

“Thanks to the swift efforts by the Fort Worth Police, we were unharmed and quickly returned home,” she wrote. “I want to express my deep gratitude to the law-enforcement professionals who did their utmost, in both speed and expertise, to protect us—as they protect our community every single day.”

The FBI stated that it “is aware of numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents targeting incoming administration nominees and appointees, and we are working with our law-enforcement partners.”

“We take all potential threats seriously and, as always, encourage members of the public to immediately report anything they consider suspicious to law enforcement,” it added.


Seth Frantzman: If we want peace, Unrwa and Unifil must both be completely reformed
Hamas feeds off Unrwa. Not only does it confiscate humanitarian aid and levy taxes on Gazans to fuel its war machine, it hides among UN facilities. Hamas systematically uses UN facilities, schools, hospitals and civilian shelters in Gaza. This is not hard for the UN organisations to detect and monitor. If there is a school for civilians and one floor is occupied by armed men, any organisation running the school would know about their presence. The UN has systematically made sure to cut this out of the mandate of Unrwa.

Hamas grew exponentially more powerful after 2007 by outsourcing civilian needs to Unrwa and various NGOs. While those groups fed and educated people, Hamas built command centres under Unrwa facilities and infiltrated hospitals. Despite Hamas bringing war on Gaza every year or two after 2007, the international community never acted to weaken Hamas and prevent it exploiting the presence of Unrwa and other humanitarian bodies. Instead a symbiotic relationship was enabled. While the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank had to take responsibility for civilians, in Gaza Hamas prepared for war while Unrwa and others took care of civilians. This enabled war, rather than reducing the incentive for Hamas to carry out attacks such as the October 7 massacre.

In Lebanon a similar process unfolded after 2007. Unifil was supposed to work with the Lebanese army to make sure Hezbollah did not return to southern Lebanon. Instead Hezbollah grew ever more powerful. Hezbollah expanded its arsenal from around 13,000 rockets in 2006 to 150,000 by 2023. All this occurred under the eyes of Unifil. Instead of fulfilling UN Resolution 1701, which was supposed to prevent Hezbollah returning to threaten Israel, Unifil appears to have done less after 2006 than it did before the war.

In essence, the UN took control of southern Lebanon and Gaza as two colonies on the border of Israel and in each an Iranian-backed proxy force emerged as a powerful army. Hamas on October 7 and Hezbollah on the same day were more powerful than many nations. Most countries don’t have 150,000 rockets. There is no other conclusion that can be drawn from the disastrous experience of 2006-2023 than seeing the UN’s role in Gaza and Lebanon as being directly entwined with the rise of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Israel’s new defence minister Israel Katz spoke to the UN special envoy to Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on November 26. “We demand effective enforcement from Unifil, every house in southern Lebanon that is rebuilt and a terrorist base is established in it will be demolished, every terrorist will be attacked, every attempt to smuggle weapons will be thwarted,” he said. It’s time for the international community to ensure the UN mandates in Gaza and Lebanon change. The UN needs to focus on preventing Hamas and Hezbollah rule. Only then can civilians live in peace in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.


Seth Frantzman: The IDF seized masses of Hezbollah weapons. What do they tell us?
The IDF has seized masses of weapons from Hezbollah in almost two months of fighting on the ground in Lebanon, including rocket launchers, vehicles with mounted machine guns, anti-tank missiles, rifles, and RPG launchers.

The weapons run the gamut from those supplied by Iran to weapons with Russian origins. Some are old, likely dating back decades, and some were found in boxes, unwrapped by the terrorist group. The IDF has released photos of some of these weapons and has even put some on display.

What do these weapons tell us?

Vehicles
Hezbollah used a variety of vehicles to mount rocket launchers and guns, some found in villages in southern Lebanon. The vehicles include ATVs that Hezbollah could use to quickly move its forces into position to launch anti-tank missiles and a number of civilian trucks repurposed to carry rocket launchers and machine guns.

Hezbollah often chose Toyota trucks to mount its weapons, but it also used Jeeps and Chevy and GMC trucks. The rocket launchers are mounted on the back and can usually launch a barrage of rockets. For instance, most have a barrel set-up that includes 12 tubes for projectiles that can fire 107mm rockets. They also had M-80 launchers on the backs of trucks. These rockets weigh around 10kg., and Hezbollah unveiled this system recently in a video posted on Iranian state media.

The trucks enable Hezbollah to move these systems to the front quickly and fire from various locations. The trucks also appear outwardly as civilian vehicles in most cases, so one can easily disguise the launcher in the back by placing something over it, such as a carpet or blanket. Once Israel began its ground operation and air campaign against Hezbollah, it was likely hard for the terror group to move these systems around, leaving many of the trucks to be found and seized.

107mm rockets
Hezbollah uses 107mm rockets, which have a weight of 18kg. and are about the length of a person’s arm. The missiles are ubiquitous among Iranian-backed groups. Iran has sought to move similar types of rockets to Gaza in the past and has also moved them to Iraq to supply Iranian-backed militias there. In 2019 and 2020, Iraqi militias often used these rockets to target US forces there. The rockets do not have a long-range, likely around seven miles.

The rockets found in Lebanon appear to be a very typical Iranian-made variety. This is clear from the color of the munition casing and other details, such as the printed manufacture date on the side. Some rockets say they were made in 2007, meaning that Iran supplied these to Hezbollah after the 2006 Second Lebanon War to replenish its stocks. Hezbollah had around 13,000 rockets in 2006. By 2023, it had 150,000.

The 107mm rocket is also easy to transport. They can be loaded into crates, transported, and easily disguised as something other than rockets. Moving thousands of these rockets is not very difficult. This explains, in some part, the large arsenal Hezbollah acquired.

Hezbollah often placed these rockets inside tubes ready to fire. Usually, these are in tubes that consist of 12 tubes, so they can be fired in a barrage of 12 or 24 rockets at a time. They can likely be remotely fired from a fixed position in the ground, or they can be fired from a mount on a truck.
Biden administration planning $680 million arms sale to Israel
The Biden administration is pushing ahead with a $680 million arms sales package to Israel, a US official familiar with the plan said on Wednesday, even as a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect.

The package, which was first reported by the Financial Times, includes thousands of joint direct attack munition kits (JDAM) and hundreds of small-diameter bombs, according to the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The news comes less than a day after the ceasefire agreement ended the most direct confrontation in years between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, but Israel is still fighting its other arch-foe, the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

However, the package has been in the works for several months. The official said it was first previewed to the congressional committees in September and then submitted for review in October.

The package follows a $20 billion sale in August of fighter jets and other military equipment to Israel.

Over 10,000 bombs and missiles
Reuters reported in June that Washington, Israel's biggest ally and weapons supplier, has sent Israel more than 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.

The conversations about the latest arms package had been going on even as a group of progressive US senators including Bernie Sanders introduced resolutions to block the sale of some US weapons to Israel over concerns about the human rights catastrophe faced by Palestinians in Gaza.

The legislation was shot down in the Senate.


Israel says it nabbed large trove of Iranian arms destined for West Bank attack
The Shin Bet recently foiled an attempt by Iran to smuggle large amounts of advanced weapons, including rockets, to terror operatives in the West Bank for use in attacks on Israeli targets, the security agency revealed Wednesday.

In a joint operation, the Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces captured a shipment of advanced weapons destined for terror operatives in the Jenin area, the organization said in a statement.

Later, a site where a large number of weapons from Iran had been buried was uncovered, the statement added.

The Shin Bet did not provide further details on where the weapons were hidden or where the shipment was captured.

Among the weapons captured were 40 “quality” claymore-type explosive devices and 33 makeshift claymores, along with remote detonation systems; six RPG launchers and 24 RPGs; three 107mm rockets; two 60mm mortar launchers and 20 mortars; six M16 assault rifles and one M4 rifle; seven sniper rifles; and 37 handguns.

According to the Shin Bet, two units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ special forces — Unit 4000 and Unit 18840 — were responsible for the plot.

Unit 4000 is the special operations division of the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, headed by Jawad Ghafari; Unit 18840 is the special operations unit of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria, which is subordinate to the head of Iran’s clandestine Unit 840, Asghar Bakri.

The Shin Bet said it had identified renewed attempts to smuggle advanced weapons into the West Bank in recent months.


The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza
Scholars for Peace in the Middle East is nonpartisan, community of scholars who have united to promote honest, fact-based, and civil discourse in the academy.

Frantzman in his latest book, the October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza tells the story of the lead-up to the surprise attack on Oct. 7. It follows how the IDF changed its strategy and tactics, adopting cutting-edge technology, some of which failed to prevent the attack. It also tells the story of how Hamas grew from a small group in the 1990s to a murderous terrorist organization in Gaza. At the heart of the narrative is an account of how Oct. 7 unfolded, the blow-by-blow of the soldiers and civilians on the front line. We now know how undermanned the IDF positions on the border were, and investigations will eventually provide important new details about some of the key battles, such as the fight to take back Kibbutz Be’eri.


‘Kangaroo court’: Douglas Murray blasts ICC’s ‘dangerous’ arrest warrant for Israeli PM
Author Douglas Murray warns the International Criminal Court is setting an “exceptionally dangerous precedent” after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant.

Mr Murray commended countries which came out and asserted they would not recognise the “kangaroo court’s” arrest warrants.

“He [ICC prosecutor Karim Khan] did also issue an arrest warrant for one leader of Hamas who's dead,” the author told Sky News host Rita Panahi.

“It seems that the International Criminal Court in its jurisdiction now has not just anyone in the world, including Democratic leaders, in its sights, but also the dead.

“So, that's a total farce but it's going to be a very interesting test. So now there are only arrest warrants out for the first time for democratically elected leaders.”


‘Quietly optimistic’: Israel ceasefire deal with Hezbollah holds
Executive Council of Australian Jewry Co-CEO Alex Ryvchin says he is “quietly optimistic” about peace holding in the Middle East as Israel and Hezbollah come to a 60-day ceasefire deal.

“I am quietly optimistic about the prospects of peace holding and not because Hezbollah has agreed to anything,” Mr Ryvchin said.

“Because of the deterrence Israel has managed to reinstate, they have utterly destroyed Hezbollah’s military capacity.”


Hezbollah agrees to ceasefire with Israel due to ‘fear’ of Donald Trump
Filmmaker Ami Horowitz claims Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel because they “fear” US President-elect Donald Trump.

“They didn’t do it because they feared Biden, they did it because they fear Trump,” he told Sky News host Rita Panahi.

“We’re already seeing Trump’s success in the foreign policy spirit.”

Mr Horowitz is “optimistic” about what Mr Trump will do for the war raging on between Ukraine and Russia and claims both sides also “fear” the President-elect.


‘Genuine racism’: Jews in Australia ‘no longer feel safe’
Sky News host Rowan Dean says he has seen “genuine racism” towards the Jewish population.

Mr Dean told Sky News host Andrew Bolt that there has been “endless” antagonism towards Jewish Australians.

“To the point where the Jewish community no longer feels safe,” he said.

“Australian Jews no longer feel safe in this country.”


The Israel Guys: A CEASEFIRE Has Been Declared Between Israel and Hezbollah
It’s ACTUALLY happening! Israel has just agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah that went into effect at 4:00 AM this morning. This ceasefire agreement is probably not what you think! Josiah dives into all the details of the agreement on today’s show and what it means for Israe




How Jews in the UAE are responding to Chabad rabbi’s shocking murder
Jewish leaders in the United Arab Emirates have vowed resilience in the face of tragedy after the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, whose body was discovered on Sunday, prompting a criminal investigation. Three suspects are currently in custody.

“This is a nightmare and a tragedy,” said Chief Rabbi Yehuda Sarna of the Moses Ben Maimon Synagogue at Abu Dhabi’s Abrahamic Family House. Speaking in an interview, he added, “None of us could have anticipated this attack could happen.”

Rabbi Kogan, 28, was a Chabad rabbi based in Dubai and ran the Rimon Market kosher supermarket, which had recently been targeted with anti-Israel online reviews. According to reports, mezuzahs affixed to the shop’s doors had been forcibly removed.

Ross Kriel, a prominent Jewish leader in the UAE, shared personal memories of Kogan: "As I review my messages to Zvi they are a mix of wedding invitations for his wedding to Rivky in 2022, orders of arba'ah minim (The components that make up the lulav and etrog for Sukkot) and schnitzel and sharing of Torah verses needed for this or that occasion. The stuff of regular Jewish life... How I wish I could message Zvi right now to thank him one more time.”

The attack has heightened security concerns in the UAE, which has enjoyed stable relations with Israel since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Rabbi Sarna, who was instrumental in establishing Jewish life in the Emirates, sought to reassure the community, describing the UAE as a “safe place” where “security is tight.”

“After this incident, I am sure that precautions which were not taken previously are going to be taken,” Sarna said. “Despite the fear that we are experiencing in the short term, there is going to be a strong building back.”


Michael Blake’s 180-degree turn on Israel following Oct. 7, Gaza war
Michael Blake, a former New York state lawmaker who officially launched his campaign for mayor of New York City on Tuesday, is facing new scrutiny for posting anti-Israel commentary in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attacks and the ensuing Gaza war — marking a sharp rhetorical shift from his past statements on Middle East strife.

In the weeks following Hamas’ attacks last year, Blake, a Democrat, shared highly critical social media comments amid the escalating conflict, charging Israel with enacting “genocide” in Gaza and demanding a cease-fire without calling for the release of hostages who had just been abducted.

“Genocide. It’s happening right before our eyes,” Blake posted to X on Oct. 23, just over two weeks after the attacks. “If you feel that you can’t say that while equally demanding a Cease Fire, eliminating a Terrorist organization, stopping an unjust gov’t, pursuing a Two State Solution & praying … You shouldn’t be in office.”

“Cease. Fire.” he wrote in another post four days later, refraining from mentioning the hostages as he had done in his first statement on Hamas’ invasion.

Last April, Blake also accused the Israel Defense Forces of engaging in a “horrible and disrespectful lie” about the killing of aid workers in Gaza. Later that month, he criticized a bipartisan House bill to federally monitor rising antisemitism on college campuses sparked by the Israel-Hamas war, calling the legislation “ridiculous.”

“Monitoring people doesn’t really work out well for People of Color and Young People,” Blake said of the bill on X. “Donations are not more important than Dignity. Antisemitism is unacceptable as is Palestinian Genocide as is killing Black & Brown people. Monitoring is ridiculous.”

More recently, Blake spoke out against a separate House bill that would make it easier for the federal government to revoke the tax-exempt status of a nonprofit accused of providing financial or material support to U.S.-designated terrorist groups such as Hamas.

Blake, who himself runs a nonprofit, has also aligned with several anti-Israel commentators and elected officials — including Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), who had endorsed boycotts of Israel and railed against what he called the “Zionist regime” before losing his seat in a bitter primary over the summer.
Left-Wing Activists Slam Incoming Trans US Lawmaker for Past Pro-Israel Comments
US Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-DE), the first transgender person elected to the US Congress, poses for a portrait outside of her campaign office in Wilmington, Delaware, US, Oct. 26, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Rachel Wisniewski

Left-wing activists are condemning Sarah McBride, a Democrat from Delaware who earlier this month became the first transgender person elected to the US Congress, for previously expressing support for Israel.

McBride, who was born male but now identifies as female, has a history of expressing support for Israel’s right to self-defense and sympathy for the victims of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.

Upon discovering the lawmaker’s past public support of Israel, left-wing advocates slammed McBride, arguing that a “queer” politician should empathize with the plight of the Palestinians and adopt a stridently “anti-Zionist” stance. Progressives also slammed McBride for placing an “emphasis on Israeli safety” and taking a hard-line position against Iran, which US intelligence agencies have for years identified as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism.

Anti-Israel activists have especially taken umbrage at the transgender lawmaker for repeatedly affirming Israel’s right to “defend itself” and referring to Hamas’s Oct. 7 invasion of the Jewish state as a “terrorist attack.” McBride has also rankled some left-wing advocates by calling for the release of the American hostages in Hamas-ruled Gaza and expressing support for continuing the transfer of US aid to Israel.

“Congress will most likely have the first trans member in history after November and she’s a zionist, beyond parody lmao,” one user wrote on X/Twitter.

“Don’t hate sarah Mcbride because she’s a trans woman, hate her because she’s a raging zionist,” another progressive posted.

“My take on Sarah McBride: I’d rather have 100 cıshetero congressmen who are anti-zionist than one trans woman who is a zionist. Identity politics shouldn’t matter at all when the stakes are genocidal,” another anti-Israel advocate said.


Terror police block 'October 7' video game that allows players to recreate Hamas atrocities by paragliding into Israeli base to kill soldiers
British counter-terror cops have blocked a 'sadistic' October 7 video game that allows players to recreate Hamas atrocities by paragliding into Israeli bases to kill soldiers.

Authorities intervened last month after the game appeared on Steam, an online video game market place.

Police ordered the gaming site to take down Fursan al-Aqsa: The Knights of the Al-Aqsa Mosque from its UK store.

A trailer advertising the game came to the attention of police after it depicted players paragliding into an Israeli military base and slaughtering troops.

Although it does not expressly refer to Hamas, the trailer shows IDF soldiers being forced onto their knees and executed, blown up with grenades and shot in the head by terrorists wearing green Hamas-style headbands.

The game's trailer includes text asking: 'Where are those who carry the explosive belts? I want an explosive belt to blow up myself over the Zionists!'

It carries on: 'It's a jihad, a jihad of victory or martyrdom!'

Nidal Nijm, the game's Brazilian-Palestinian creator, said his creation 'allows you to relive the iconic day on which the brave Palestinian resistance humiliated Israeli military forces'.

He claimed the ban was a result of the 'game's political statement on the Palestine x Israel conflict' and added the game was no different to the Call of Duty franchise, which allows players to carry out military coups and join a terror attack at an airport.

In a statement on Steam’s website, he said: 'The request to block my game in the UK came from the Counter Terrorism Internet Referral Unit (CTIRU). So this is clear that UK authorities consider my game as ‘terrorist’ propaganda.'

An earlier take of the game allowed players to control Hamas-style terrorists, with a recent update introducing a scene that appeared to show the October 7 attacks.

The atrocity, which took place last year, saw Hamas terrorists storm into Israel, killing more than 1,200 people.

Among those slaughtered included children who were burnt to death, women who were raped, and elderly people who were gunned down in their homes.

According to 404 Media, which first reported on the banning of the October 7-style video game, an earlier iteration of it also featured a terrorist cutting off the head of an Israeli soldier and kicking it into the air.

Although the game has been banned in the UK, Austria and Germany, it is still available to buy in America for $14.99 (£11.96).




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This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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