Dan Shapiro on the (alleged) Israeli airstrike

Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, has a smart Twitter take on the presumed Israeli airstrike against a Syrian chemical weapons facility this week. Here it is in a more readable form:

The most interesting thing to me about Israel's (alleged) strikes against Syria, including this week's, is Russia's role.

Israel has long held that it will enforce certain redlines in Syria, chiefly preventing high-end weapons shipments to Hizballah in Lebanon.That policy got more complicated with the arrival of Russian troops in Syria in 2015. Bibi hustled to Moscow, met Putin, sought understandings.

Several subsequent meetings have followed, and militry to military de-confliction channels were established to avoid unwanted clashes.

The Russians sometimes feign ignorance about the weapons shipments of concern to Israel. That's laughable, given Russia's intelligence capabilities. Most of the weapons are of Iranian origin, but sometimes Russian as well. The Russians are also known to cynically fish for others' intel: "We have no knowledge of what you speak, but please share what you know."

It's a tribute to deft Israeli diplomacy and military precision that so far Russia has not interfered with Israeli air operations. It's not as though they couldn't. Russia's reported deployment of the powerful S-400 air defense system in Syria gives them the ability to disrupt air traffic throughout Syria, Lebanon, and much of Israel itself. But they don't.

Israel is incredibly disciplined in how it conducts its operations, with its aircraft rarely penetrating Syrian airspace. But the question remains: is there a red line for Russia beyond which they will try to constrain Israeli operations?

Undoubtedly, the Iranians are urging Russia to draw such a line. Assad may as well. It is fascinating that so far Russia has resisted. Again, credit to the Israelis for managing a complex situation well, and playing on Putin's complex motivations.

A statement like Trump's (US has no interest in Syria besides killing ISIS) is not helpful to Israel, as it could indicate to Russia.that the US would not object to constraints placed on Israeli ops. I hope the Russians are getting a different message privately.

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