Monday, June 19, 2006

  • Monday, June 19, 2006
  • Elder of Ziyon
From YNet:
Faulty population stats are driving Ehud Olmert to give up vital assets

Prime Minister Olmert's recent state visits once again brought to the fore demographobia– the illogical fear of Palestinian demographics – as the central claim for Israel to set final borders. But this fear is fundamentally flawed.

Again and again Olmert says that giving up geography is the only way to safeguard Jewish demography. Olmert's determination to pull out of Jewish land in Judea and Samaria – he, too, says these areas have historical and security significance – does not mean he has caved in to Palestinian terror or American pressure. He proved his willingness to bow to terrorism and pressure by supporting Netanyahu in 1996 and Sharon in 2001, as well as during election campaigns for the mayoralty of Jerusalem.

No, now he's inspired to pullout because of demographics. But he's using greatly exaggerated numbers provided by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics back in 1998. Israel accepted these numbers without benefit of any demographic, media or diplomatic research into their veracity, and they have since become the cornerstone of an intense campaign that has penetrated deep in to the consciousness of Israel's policy makers and public.

The reality, of course, is a bit different that Palestinian predictions of almost a decade ago: The Central Bureau of Statistics says there has been a rise in the number of Jewish births inside the green line, from 80,400 in 1995 to 105,181 in 2005. At the same time, Palestinian births have remained relatively constant at about 40,000 over the same period, and have dropped (particularly in the Muslim community) to around 36,000 since the start of 2006.

According to research conducted by the Gallup (USA) organization in March, 2006, the gap between Jewish and Arab fertility rates has dropped quickly because young Arabs are aspiring to fewer children, and young Jews are aspiring to more. Furthermore, research shows that fertility rates in practice are beginning to reflect this trend.

There is, however, a demographic threat, but the demographic sword is not hanging over the head over a long-term Jewish majority. For example, the annual percentage of Jewish population growth is greater than Arab growth in Judea and Samaria (2.1 percent to 1.8 percent from 1997 to 2004).

Of course, Muslim fertility inside the green line has dropped from 9.23 children per woman between 1960-64 to 4.36 children per woman in 2004. In the overall Arab community there are less than four children per woman.

The momentum of Jewish fertility grows when we weigh in immigration factors (a rise in immigrants, minus for émigrés), or some 20,000 people since 2001. But the prophets of demographic doom ignore this phenomenon, choosing to base their predictions on outdated fertility statistics.

Prime Minister Olmert is convinced that time is working against us, and that Jews will soon become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, he says demographic considerations take on greater significance than geographic or topographical concerns with regard to Israel's national security.

Paradoxically, Zionism pushed off demographobia when Jews were a minority of just eight percent (Theodor Herzl -1900), 33 percent (Ben-Gurion – 1947). Now that Jews have a 60 percent majority in the Land of Israel (67 percent not counting Gaza), we are caving in.

The demographic reality rebuts this demographic fatalism. It is testimony that the Zionist leaders were right in pushing to create a country despite the massive security, economic and demographic difficulties they faced at first.

Now, when the Jewish majority has reached a critical mass, and is backed up by unprecedented military, economic and technological strength, demographobia simply has no place. We certainly must not sacrifice valuable territories on a demographic altar that is flawed at the most basic level.


It is noteworthy that Muslims have vastly exaggerated their population claims consistently when it is in their interest to do so: They've claimed over 5 million Muslims in the US when in fact there are less than 2 million; they've claimed that they are the fastest growing religion in the world when in fact it appears they are losing ground to Christianity; and they routinely exaggerate the number of Palestinian Arabs worldwide as some 9.3 million, an absurd jump from the 1.35 million Palestinian Arabs in 1948 (or perhaps less than a million.) Very few people question the sources of these figures, and the Western mind tends to believe authoritative-sounding statistics.

It is in our interests to verify everything that is said and every number that is reported, because, frankly, the track record of truth is pretty poor.


Printfriendly

EoZTV Podcast

Podcast URL

Subscribe in podnovaSubscribe with FeedlyAdd to netvibes
addtomyyahoo4Subscribe with SubToMe

search eoz

comments

Speaking

translate

E-Book

For $18 donation








Sample Text

EoZ's Most Popular Posts in recent years

Hasbys!

Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For over 14 years and 30,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

Donate!

Donate to fight for Israel!

Monthly subscription:
Payment options


One time donation:

subscribe via email

Follow EoZ on Twitter!

Interesting Blogs

Categories

#PayForSlay Abbas liar Academic fraud administrivia al-Qaeda algeria Alice Walker American Jews AmericanZionism Amnesty analysis anti-semitism anti-Zionism antisemitism apartheid Arab antisemitism arab refugees Arafat archaeology Ari Fuld art Ashrawi ASHREI B'tselem bahrain Balfour bbc BDS BDSFail Bedouin Beitunia beoz Bernie Sanders Biden history Birthright book review Brant Rosen breaking the silence Campus antisemitism Cardozo cartoon of the day Chakindas Chanukah Christians circumcision Clark Kent coexistence Comix Community Standards conspiracy theories COVID-19 Cyprus Daled Amos Daphne Anson David Applebaum Davis report DCI-P Divest This double standards Egypt Elder gets results ElderToons Electronic Intifada Ellen Horowitz Embassy EoZ Trump symposium eoz-symposium EoZNews eoztv Erekat Erekat lung transplant EU Euro-Mid Observer European antisemitism Facebook Facebook jail Fake Civilians 2014 Fake Civilians 2019 Farrakhan Fatah featured Features fisking flotilla Forest Rain Forward free gaza freedom of press palestinian style future martyr Gary Spedding gaza Gaza Platform George Galloway George Soros German Jewry Ghassan Daghlas gideon levy gilad shalit gisha Goldstone Report Good news Grapel Guardian guest post gunness Haaretz Hadassah hamas Hamas war crimes Hananya Naftali hasbara Hasby 2014 Hasby 2016 Hasby 2018 hate speech Hebron helen thomas hezbollah history Hizballah Holocaust Holocaust denial honor killing HRW Human Rights Humanitarian crisis humor Hypocrisy ICRC IDF IfNotNow IJ Benjamin Ilan Pappe Ilhan Omar impossible peace incitement indigenous Indonesia infographic international law interview intransigence iran Iraq Islamic Judeophobia Islamism Israel Loves America Israeli culture Israeli high-tech J Street jabalya James Zogby jeremy bowen Jerusalem jewish fiction Jewish Voice for Peace jihad jimmy carter Joe Biden John Kerry jokes jonathan cook Jordan Joseph Massad Juan Cole Judaism Judea-Samaria Judean Rose Judith Butler Kairos Karl Vick Keith Ellison ken roth khalid amayreh Khaybar Know How to Answer Lebanon leftists Linda Sarsour Linkdump lumish mahmoud zahar Mairav Zonszein Malaysia Marc Lamont Hill Marjorie Taylor Greene max blumenthal Mazen Adi McGraw-Hill media bias Methodist Michael Lynk Michael Ross Miftah Missionaries moderate Islam Mohammed Assaf Mondoweiss moonbats Morocco Mudar Zahran music Muslim Brotherhood Naftali Bennett Nakba Nan Greer Nation of Islam Natural gas Nazi Netanyahu News nftp NGO Nick Cannon NIF Noah Phillips norpac NSU Matrix NYT Occupation offbeat olive oil Omar Barghouti Omri Boehm Only in Israel Opinion oxfam PA corruption PalArab lies Palestine Papers pallywood pchr PCUSA Peace Now Peter Beinart Petra MB philosophy poetry Poland poll Poster Preoccupied Prisoners propaganda Proud to be Zionist Puar Purim purimshpiel Putin Qaradawi Qassam calendar Quora Rafah Ray Hanania real liberals RealJerusalemStreets reference Reuters Richard Falk Richard Landes Richard Silverstein Right of return Rivkah Lambert Adler Robert Werdine rogel alpher roger cohen roger waters Rutgers Saeb Erekat Sarah Schulman Saudi Arabia saudi vice self-death self-death palestinians Seth Rogen settlements sex crimes SFSU shechita sheikh tamimi Shelly Yachimovich Shujaiyeh Simchat Torah Simona Sharoni SodaStream South Africa Sovereignty Speech stamps Superman Syria Tarabin Temple Mount Terrorism This is Zionism Thomas Friedman Tlaib TOI Tomer Ilan Trump Trump Lame Duck Test Tunisia Turkey UAE Accord UCI UK UN UNDP unesco unhrc UNICEF United Arab Emirates Unity unrwa UNRWA hate unrwa reports UNRWA-USA unwra vaccination Varda Vic Rosenthal Washington wikileaks Winstanley work accident X-washing Y. Ben-David Yemen YMikarov zahran Ziesel zionist attack zoo Zionophobia Ziophobia Zvi

Blog Archive