Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Confusing Delay with Defeat: Trump’s Surprise Iran-Israel Ceasefire (Judean Rose)

Disclaimer: the views expressed here are solely those of the author, weekly Judean Rose columnist Varda Meyers Epstein.

They say the war is over. But if it’s over, why do I feel so nervous, like there’s something left undone, unfinished? Why don’t I feel safe?

I just want to feel safe—not only for myself, but for the generations that follow. Do I want my grandchildren to grow up listening for sirens, even if they rarely come? Do I want some future generation to live in fear of an Iran once again enriching uranium to the point of no return?

If Khamenei and his despotic regime remain in power, they’ll pick up right where they left off—with nuclear ambitions and terror by proxy. And when Israel defends itself, will President Trump once again scold her, as he did the other day? Iran launched missiles at Israeli civilians, and Trump called it “a little bit of a violation”—perhaps because this particular strike caused no damage. But just hours earlier, another missile killed innocents in a residential neighborhood in Beersheva.

I don’t feel safe because Donald Trump still believes—against all evidence—that the ayatollahs can be reasoned with, coaxed into peace, talked into laying down their weapons and picking up plowshares. Worse still, he seems to draw a moral equivalence between Iran—a regime that threatens Israel’s annihilation, funds terror proxies, and pursues nuclear weapons—and Israel itself. Unbelievably, he equates the victim with her abuser. He frames the conflict as playground roughhousing, erasing Iran’s aggression and Israel’s right to defend itself from a nuclear holocaust:

“They’ve had a big fight. Like two kids in the schoolyard—you know, they fight like hell, you can’t stop it. Let them fight for two, three minutes, and then it’s easier to stop them.”

If this is how Trump perceives Iran and Israel—if he truly believes Iran can be reasoned with—then he doesn’t understand the Middle East. Worse, he isn’t listening. Iran is telling him, plainly and repeatedly, that it will not stop. It will rebuild its nuclear facilities.

And they’re not even hiding it. Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami openly admitted as much: “We planned to avoid any interruption in the nuclear industry process. Preparations for the revival of the country’s nuclear program were foreseen in advance, and our plan is to not allow any interruption in the production and service process.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament has announced it is suspending cooperation with the IAEA—the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Does that sound like a regime with nothing to hide? Like a nation ready to embrace a peaceful, nuclear-free future?

Why is Trump letting the Iranians get away with saying these things? And what about his betrayal of the Iranian people—those weary of living under Khamenei’s iron rule? Bibi encouraged them to be brave, reminded them that Israel has no quarrel with them, and wants them to prosper. Are we now meant to abandon them? Just as Obama did in 2009, when they rose up and the world turned its back?

And then there are the conflicting reports. Was Fordow completely destroyed, or wasn’t it? The administration can’t seem to get its story straight. Trump claimed Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” But later, JD Vance described Iran’s capabilities as merely “substantially set back,” insisting that had always been the goal.

As Vance put it: “That was the objective of the mission: to destroy that Fordow nuclear site and, of course, do some damage to the other sites as well. But we feel very confident that the Fordow nuclear site was substantially set back, and that was our goal.”

If Vance is to be believed, the goal had never been complete obliteration, but only a delay in what Iran will inevitably try to do once more. Which of course means that somewhere down the road, a new generation will have to live with the Damocles sword of a nuclear Iran hanging over their heads. And that is neither fair nor right.

And then there’s how the ceasefire came about. Trump’s surprise announcement apparently caught Israel off guard. It certainly caught me off guard—reading about the so-called truce from a safe room, while cowering from incoming missiles.

Bibi gave a victory speech, declaring that “Iran’s malicious intent to threaten Israel has been eradicated.” But has it?

Eradicated? Obliterated, or only “significantly set back” as both JD Vance and Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have said.

What bothers me most is the unspoken message: shut up and be grateful. And yes, I am grateful. But gratitude doesn’t mean silence, even when America deploys its bunker busters in a precision strike that was nothing short of extraordinary.

But as extraordinary as that military triumph was, it’s not enough. This regime has a singular goal: to destroy the West. Disabling Iran’s nuclear program means little if you leave the regime intact—especially when change for the Iranian people feels so close we can smell it.

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From Greek site Efsyn:

AKEL Secretary General: Israelis are buying up land en masse in Cyprus - Dangers lurk

Stefanos Stefanou identified a serious geopolitical issue regarding the possibility of Israeli citizens acquiring large and ghettoized real estate properties on the island.
"The government must protect our land, ensure that Cyprus will continue to belong to Cypriots and be controlled by Cypriots in perpetuity ," said the Secretary General of the Cypriot parliamentary party AKEL, Stefanos Stefanou, on Friday before the 24th congress of the Party, referring to the dangers of the uncontrolled sale of real estate to wealthy citizens of third countries and making special reference to the practices followed by citizens of Israel.

He also indicated that "we must take into account how the establishment in Israel thinks and acts, referring to the sweeping acquisitions of important economic units and large areas of land, while serious newspapers in Israel are talking about a targeted policy of expansion of the country towards Cyprus . If we do not take effective measures now, at some point we will discover that our country does not belong to us."

AKEL is a prominent communist political party with significant representation in their parliament.

Philenews points out that no one seems to have had a problem when othe rnationalities bought properties in Cyprus en masse:

I have a question. Is the problem because they are Israelis? Because Cyprus, as is well known, has, from time to time, attracted various foreign “blood donors”. Whom we always welcome with open arms. Lebanese, Russians, Ukrainians… In Limassol, for example, the Russians had a regular colony, with companies, schools, Russian-speaking media… They probably thinned out after the invasion of Ukraine, but many stayed forever. As did their jobs. We didn’t see anyone worried. Now should we worry about the Israelis?

The president of the Association of Real Estate Appraisers in Cyprus, Polys Kourousidis, called out Stefanou :

He mentioned, there are foreign buyers in Cyprus, but the majority are not Israeli. "What the Secretary General of AKEL stated is very dangerous. There are geopolitical developments in our region and it is dangerous to target ethnic groups."
He stressed that, in total, foreigners buying property in Cyprus amount to approximately 5–6 thousand. “The majority are non-Europeans; that is, approximately 3–4 thousand.”
He added that he researched and found no specific data on the total number of Israelis who have purchased a home in Cyprus. “We turned it into a political issue, talking about an ‘expansion policy’ and an ‘invasion of Israeli capital’ in Cyprus.”
Furthermore, Mr. Kourousidis mentioned that during the AKEL government period, foreign buyers were much more numerous. "Back then, they were mainly Russians and there was no problem."

Israelis buy second homes in Cyprus because the prices are much lower than Tel Aviv and the island is easy to travel to - even when Israel's airspace is closed. There is no nefarious plan to expand Israel, except in the minds of the communists and the Turks.

Oh, and the Arabs. Greek site Politis discussed how Chabad was helping Israelis stranded in Cyprus during the war, and how Chabad has expanded there to accommodate Israelis. So Rai al Youm is using that information to make it sound like Chabad itself is a Jewish expansionist organization:

The report indicated that the number of Israelis reached 15,000 people, and noted the activity of the Jewish Chabad movement in the region.
The newspaper reported that the Israeli immigrants are "close to establishing a city," and the report stated that the Israelis have used Greek Cyprus as a "backyard" during the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the report, the Chabad movement owns six homes, a synagogue, a kindergarten, a mikvah (Jewish bath), a kashrut center (a Jewish body that grants kosher certification), a cemetery, and summer activity facilities.
Chabad is an extremist organization that does not believe in the existence of Palestinians, calls for their expulsion from occupied Palestine, and opposes any agreement that would grant them part of the land.
The organization's members are present in several countries, including the United States, France, and Canada, in addition to the UAE, where they established a Jewish community center containing a synagogue and Torah scrolls.

See? It isn't Israelis - it is the Jews!

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Iran's weaponization program was set back years, not months. The DIA report is limited in scope and admits it is "low confidence."

The Washington Post (and others) report:

An initial U.S. intelligence report assesses that airstrikes ordered by President Donald Trump against Iran’s nuclear facilities set Tehran’s program back by months but did not eliminate it, contradicting claims by Trump and his top aides about the mission’s success, according to three people familiar with the report.

The classified report by the Defense Intelligence Agency is based on the Pentagon’s early bomb damage assessment of the strikes on nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan using earth-penetrating munitions carried by B-2 bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles.

It assesses that the strikes did not destroy the core components of Iran’s nuclear program and probably set it back by several months, not years, one of the people said.

Michelle Goldberg, in a New York Times opinion piece titled "Mission Not Accomplished," is almost gleeful:

Indeed, it now may be more likely, not less, that Iran will become a nuclear power.

On Tuesday, The Times, The Washington Post and CNN all reported on a preliminary classified report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which found that America’s bombing campaign set back Iran’s nuclear program by months, not years. It’s early, but Iran appears to have removed much of its highly enriched uranium before the American attack, possibly to secret facilities. The sites that were hit apparently didn’t sustain as much damage as people in the administration had hoped, with many centrifuges remaining intact.

So what's going on?

First of all, notice that the DIA report is only talking about US airstrikes on enrichment facilities, not the larger war. It doesn't mention Israel's many strikes on weaponization facilities, and without weaponization, Iran cannot build a bomb. Weaponization involves complex processes like uranium metallurgy, high-explosive triggers, and warhead miniaturization, requiring specialized facilities and expertise. Israel’s strikes on these components, including the assassination of key scientists, have crippled Iran’s ability to turn its enriched uranium into a deliverable weapon, even if some uranium remains.

Secondly, while the WaPo says this, other media don't mention that the DIA report is preliminary and was issued with "low confidence" as to its conclusions.

In other words, this report was leaked for political purposes to make Trump and Israel look bad. It does not reflect reality. Even the DIA wouldn't rely on it as being accurate.

The real experts on nuclear weaponization all agree: Israel and the US set back Iran's program by years.

The Institute for the Study of War summarized the situation:

The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program.[16] The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists.[17] The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility.[18] The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall’s side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there.[19] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20] Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively.[21] The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access.[22] This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.

The Institute for Science and International Security stated that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium, however.[23] Weapons-grade uranium (WGU) is uranium enriched up to 90 percent. The destruction of so many centrifuges will make enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower. A US weapons expert stated that US and Israeli strikes have also made it significantly more difficult and time-consuming for Iran to turn WGU into a usable nuclear weapon.[24] He said the strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to “even build a non-missile deliverable weapon,“ such as a nuclear bomb. There are significant challenges associated with miniaturizing a nuclear weapon to install it on a ballistic missile warhead.

The Free Beacon adds:

"I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly," International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi said in a Fox News interview. He noted that "it is clear that there is one Iran—before June 13, nuclear Iran—and one now," describing the difference as "night and day."

The idea that Goldberg floats that this war will make Iran more likely to hurtle towards a weaponization program ignores the clear evidence that it already was. The idea that the US and Israel shouldn't attack an active nuclear weapons program because it would make Iran mad, or make it more likely to try to hide its efforts, is laughably divorced from reality - this is what Iran has been doing for several years.

In short, the DIA report is all but useless, and the entire reason it was leaked was political, not to add any facts to the conversation. Anyone citing a report that itself says it is "low confidence" as fact is not interested in the truth.

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The war prompted Iranian media to allege Iranian Jews are spies

Egyptian site Al Gomhor shows how Iranian Jews have been pawns for propaganda during the war.

During the recent Iran-Israel conflict of 2025, the Jewish community of Iran found itself in an extremely sensitive position. To date, there has been no public political or media activity by members of the community expressing a clear position on the war, amidst a heightened security environment and fears of popular or official reactions.

With the outbreak of war, the head of the Jewish community in Tehran, Homayoun Sameh Yeh—the Jewish representative in the Iranian parliament—rushed to issue a brief official statement affirming the Jewish community's "absolute loyalty to the Iranian state and its rejection of any association with Israel's actions."

Iranian authorities are treating the Jewish community with extreme caution. While they have not announced any repressive measures or arrests of Jews, oversight of their religious and social activities has been tightened, and travel restrictions have been imposed, particularly for those holding dual nationality.

Some newspapers also launched media campaigns accusing "global Zionism" of attempting to "exploit Iranian Jews to gather intelligence about Iran's interior." These accusations were repeated in official media without providing any evidence.

The newspaper expects Jews in Iran will start leaving again, probably to Turkey to begin with but possibly to Israel too.

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06/24 Links Pt2: The Ayatollah’s Lifeline: Made in the West; Benny Morris; Israel & Iran; Sinwar’s March of Folly; Zohran Mamdani’s long war on Israel

From Ian:

Jeffrey Goldberg: Sinwar’s March of Folly

Sinwar’s misunderstanding of Israel was, if anything, deeper than Iran’s misunderstanding of Trump. Hamas and other Palestinian groups believe that Israelis see themselves as foreign implants, and therefore can easily be brought to defeat. Sinwar’s misplaced confidence in theories of settler colonialism and Jewish perfidy undermined his strategic effectiveness. Sinwar was so convinced of his beliefs that he even sponsored a conference in 2021 called “The Promise of the Hereafter—Post-Liberation Palestine,” in which specific plans were discussed for the building of Palestine on the ruins of Israel. “Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry should be retained in Palestine for some time and should not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired while living in our land and enjoying its bounty,” one presentation read.

The theme of this conference, which was held in Gaza, was an echo of a statement made by Hassan Nasrallah, then the leader of Hezbollah, who said in 2000, “This Israel, with its nuclear weapons and most advanced warplanes in the region, I swear by Allah, is actually weaker than a spider’s web … Israel may appear strong from the outside, but it’s easily destroyed and defeated.” Nasrallah was assassinated by Israel nine months ago.

I asked Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, in Jerusalem, to explain the root of this misapprehension. “The only way you can believe that Israel is Nasrallah’s spiderweb is if you believe that we don’t have substance here, that we’re not a rooted people,” he said. “The problem with Sinwar is that he believed his own propaganda. He believed that we ourselves believe that we don’t belong here. Our enemies in the Arab and Muslim worlds don’t understand that their perception of Israel and of Jews is based on a lie.”

If nothing else, the wars of the past 20 months have proved that Israel’s adversaries are not adept at analyzing political and social phenomena as they manifest in reality. Walter Russell Mead, the historian, once explained that a weakness of anti-Semites is that they have difficulty understanding the world as it actually works, and don’t comprehend cause and effect in either politics or economics. Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself saw Israel as they wished it was, not as it actually is. And in part because of this, they placed their movements in mortal danger.

Sharansky: ‘The Iranian regime was exposed before its people as a paper tiger’

For decades, former Israeli politician and Soviet refusenik Natan Sharansky has championed the cause of freedom from oppressive regimes. Dissidents across the world have found inspiration in his books and sought his advice and support.

Iranians seeking to topple the totalitarian mullahs’ regime are no different.

Soon after Israel began its strikes on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear, weapons production and military sites, Sharansky, who has been in contact with Iranian dissidents, expressed hope that the war would increase pressure on the regime from within Iran, leading to its downfall.

That hope has been reflected in statements by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the operation, though after the interview, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he favors stability over regime change.

Sharansky spoke with Jewish Insider on Tuesday about the prospects of the Iranian people rising up against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even after a shaky ceasefire had been declared between Israel and Iran.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Jewish Insider: What did this war between Israel and Iran mean for the possibility of regime change in Iran?

Natan Sharansky: It’s difficult to speak now, because we don’t know what kind of [ceasefire] agreement it is, whether it is the type with Hezbollah, the type that prevents Iran from rebuilding their ballistic missiles.

What is important is that the regime has been very weakened in the eyes of its own people.

A regime like Iran needs control not only over practical matters, it needs a way to keep its people under control, and the only control they had is through fear. The moment the level of fear goes down, or the empire looks weak, or some serious event causes people to doubt it, the regime can fall apart very quickly.

If some people cross the line of fear and go to the streets and resist, [the regime] can fall in a few days, as it did in Eastern Europe or in Tahrir Square in Egypt.

[On Monday], I thought we were very close. The fact that Israel was destroying the symbols of the regime, one after the other — the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] headquarters, the Interior Ministry that controlled people’s movement — meant the regime was being weakened in the eyes of its own people.

The Ayatollah’s Lifeline: Made in the West

The nuclear plants may have been damaged or destroyed, but the regime’s nuclear ambitions are very much alive. Now, with the ceasefire announced shortly after these strikes — initially denied by both sides but rapidly taking effect — the regime has been given a chance to regroup and come back stronger.

This ceasefire paves the way to lifting sanctions. Once sanctions are lifted, the regime will have the funds to rebuild everything: its nuclear program, its terror networks, its brutal internal repression. The world has once again handed the Ayatollahs exactly what they wanted, a lifeline. Trump announcing China can now buy oil again from Iran proves exactly that.

Reports say, The exiled crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, unfollowed Netanyahu and Trump on social media. If true, he for sure feels betrayed by this ceasefire that leaves the Ayatollah in power.

Even worse, they don’t need 100 nuclear weapons; they only need one. One bomb is enough to wipe Israel off the map. And they can get it from any rogue actor willing to sell. A wounded humiliated and weak tyrant is more dangerous than a happy one. The regime was clear they won’t stop. Some countries are willing to provide them the bomb. They are selling the ceasefire to their radical jihadi followers as a win against the “empire” and the “zionist entity.”

Why do we keep betraying millions of Iranians — risking their dreams of freedom — to save a regime that jails, tortures, and executes its own people?

Why do we force Israel to stop short of victory every time it defends itself against terror? Enough.

Let the regime in Iran fall. Stop handing it lifelines. Stop romanticizing, they are a regime designed for tyranny. Stand with the people of Iran — not their jailers and oppressors.

And let Israel win. Stop interrupting wars halfway through and pretending that “both sides” just need to stop. One side seeks to live. The other seeks to destroy. The world is failing at the moral test.

The pattern is clear: when tyrants are vulnerable, the world protects them. When democracies defend themselves, they are told to stand down.

Let the regime in Iran fall.

Let Israel win its wars.

Stop saving tyrants.

Stand with the people.

The world must stop saving the Ayatollahs.

The nuclear plants may be gone — but Iran’s deadly ambition lives on.

06/24 Links Pt1: Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel–Iran War; The Failed Soothsayers of Armageddon; UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief: ‘Night and Day’ Difference Between Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities

From Ian:

John Spencer: Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel–Iran War

“War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.” — Carl von Clausewitz War is not chaos. It is the deliberate application of force in pursuit of political objectives. Every modern conflict must be judged according to those objectives. In the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, three major actors pursued distinct goals: Israel, Iran, and the United States. Based on what can be objectively and openly assessed, Israel and the United States achieved overwhelming success at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Iran, while executing limited retaliation, suffered a decisive defeat. Most importantly, the world is now safer, because Iran is no longer as close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Israel: Precision, Superiority, and Clarity of Purpose
From the outset of Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s political objective was clear. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on day one that Israel would no longer accept the threat of a near-term nuclear-armed Iran. Within the first 72 hours, Israel conducted one of the most sophisticated preemptive strike campaigns in modern history.

Over 300 guided munitions were launched in five synchronized waves. Israel struck dozens of critical Iranian targets including nuclear facilities, air bases, missile launchers, drone hubs, and leadership compounds. This was done while Israel was simultaneously conducting a major ground operation in Gaza, deterring Hezbollah and defending its own civilians from daily missile attacks.

Israel did more than strike deep. It dominated Iranian skies. The Israeli Air Force operated freely over Iranian territory. No Israeli aircraft were shot down. Not a single pilot was forced to eject or be rescued. Iran’s air defenses, including Russian-built systems, failed to stop any manned aircraft. Israel demonstrated complete air superiority and the operational freedom to hit any target, anywhere inside Iran, without interference.

This display of power shattered the myth of Iran’s invulnerability. For years, the Islamic Republic built a perception of strength based on its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and proxy network. In 12 days, Israel dismantled that illusion. Its actions signaled to the region and to the world that Iran can be struck, its infrastructure can be broken, and its leadership can be targeted without hesitation.

Strategic Decapitation and Nuclear Disruption

Israel's operation focused not only on infrastructure, but also on people. Over 20 senior Iranian military commanders were killed, including:
Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC
Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces
Gholamali Rashid, head of Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, IRGC Aerospace Commander
Saeed Izadi and Mohammad Shahriari, senior Quds Force officers
IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq
In parallel, at least 14 nuclear scientists were eliminated. These included Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, and physicist Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. Their deaths dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.

Major nuclear facilities were heavily damaged or degraded:
Natanz suffered destruction of its above-ground pilot enrichment plant and possible damage to underground centrifuges
Isfahan, struck twice, saw nuclear research infrastructure destroyed
Explosions near Fordow suggest the deeply buried site was severely damaged, especially with U.S. support using bunker-busting munitions
Tehran-based administrative and centrifuge production sites were also hit

Initial assessments indicate that Israel destroyed up to 1,000 ballistic missiles on the ground. Roughly 65 percent of Iran’s launchers were neutralized. Airfields, storage depots, and radar installations across western Iran were wiped out.

The Failed Soothsayers of Armageddon By Abe Greenwald

Via Commentary Podcast sign up here. Where do the doomsday prognosticators about Israel’s attack on Iran go from here? Before Israel and the U.S. destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, these hysterics had made frightful predictions. They warned of everything from a prolonged nation-building slog to a new migrant crisis to a world-wide financial collapse to a global (possibly nuclear) war. They predicted that thousands of Americans would die in a week. And they got everything wrong.

Here's what happened: In 12 days, Israel and the U.S. wiped out Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon. Iran launched some missiles and drones at Israel (and an American base), most of which were intercepted. No one else got involved. Donald Trump instituted a cease-fire and has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize that he will never win. But you can expect more good news to come out of the region soon, because an enfeebled Iran opens up a world of possibilities.

It's bad enough to be proven spectacularly wrong immediately and before the entire world. But it’s worse to then be stuck on the losing side as the victors advance the common good. This can force you to say very stupid things. For example, before Donald Trump sent in the B-2s, Matt Duss, former foreign-policy adviser to Bernie Sanders and forever critic of Israel, wrote that he was “in horror at the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and America.” He now acknowledges the catastrophe that wasn’t thus: “Not for the first time, it seems that lots of people aren’t going to die because Iran showed more restraint than the US and Israel.” Some claims are too disconnected from reality to merit debunking. But they do merit laughter.

And you can laugh at this, too. In the New York Times, Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, told reporter Farnaz Fassihi that everyone—Israel, the U.S., and Iran—can claim a win here: “The United States can say it has set back Iran’s nuclear program,” he said. “Israel can say it has weakened Iran, a regional adversary, and Iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers.”

And I can say that I’m the pope, but that won’t transport me to the Vatican.

The truth is that Israel and the United States are the victors, and Iran is the loser. No one, including Ali Vaez and Ayatollah Khamenei himself, believes otherwise.

Did Iran Just Blink

Critics of the American bombing raid on Iran have warned that it could lead to dangerous retaliation, and risk dragging the U.S. into a broader conflict. (How this could be a greater risk than allowing the murderous fanatics who govern Iran to have nuclear weapons is a separate question.) Yesterday, Iran indeed retaliated. Noah Rothman writes:
On Monday, Iranian state media released a high-production-value video revealing [the government’s] intention to strike U.S. forces inside neighboring Qatar. A bombastic statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accompanying the video claimed that Iran had launched a salvo of ten missiles at the U.S.-manned Al Udeid Air Base, which “pulverized” American forces. In reality, the missiles seem to have all been intercepted before they reached their targets. No casualties have been reported.

In fact, the Iranians quietly gave Qatar—the Gulf state with which they have the best relations—advance warning of the attack, knowing that the Qataris would then pass it on to the U.S. Thus prepared, American forces were able to minimize the damage. Rothman continues:
So far, Iran’s retaliatory response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear program looks a lot like its reaction to the 2020 attack that killed the Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Suleimani—which is to say that it seems like Tehran is seeking an offramp to avoid a potentially existential conflict with the United States.

Now, it’s important to note that this is only a face-saving climb-down if that’s how we want to interpret it. The only reason why we remember the Iranian operation aimed at avenging Soleimani’s death as a cease-fire overture is because we decided to take it that way. We didn’t have to do that. One-hundred-and-ten U.S. service personnel were treated for injuries as a result of that direct and unprecedented ballistic-missile attack on U.S. forces in Iraq. . . . The U.S. could have regarded that strike as an unacceptable precedent, but the Trump administration had made its point. By simply deeming deterrence to have been restored, the U.S. helped bring that condition about.

It appears that is precisely what the U.S. has done this time. Last night both Washington and Tehran announced a cease-fire, one that includes Israel. Whether it will hold remains to be seen; Iran already managed to get in a deadly, eleventh-hour attack on civilians in Beersheba. If Jerusalem knew such an arrangement was in the cards—and there is every reason to think it did—then its military activities over the past few days start to make a great deal of sense.

Since June 13, there has been some lack of clarity about whether Israel’s goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities, or to destabilize the regime. Now it seems that the IDF has been doing precisely what it has done in the final phase of almost every prior war: try to inflict as much damage as possible upon the enemy’s military infrastructure before the U.S. blows the whistle and declares the war over—thus reestablishing deterrence and leaving its enemy’s offensive capabilities severely weakened.

In the next item, I’ll turn to some of the nonmilitary targets Israel chose.

The Institute for Palestine Studies last year launched a digital project, supervised by Dr. Ghassan Abu-Sittah, Documenting the Targeting and Destruction of the Health Sector in the Gaza Strip.

So I looked up Ghassan Abu-Sittah, a British plastic surgeon born in Kuwait. I found one interview where he said:

On June 4, 1982, the Israelis began their invasion of Lebanon by targeting every Palestinian Red Crescent Society hospital in Lebanon with airstrikes. This has always been a component of this kind of dead policy of Israeli wars against the Palestinians, targeting the health system.

This never happened. I only found one Palestinian hospital that was bombed, the "Gaza" hospital right outside the Sabra and Shatila camp, and it was not bombed in the initial invasion.

Abu Sittah is a liar.

He also said in the same interview:

I think it was Ben-Gurion who said, "I cannot bear to think that we will have to live in the same country as these people."

Ben Gurion never said this. Neither did any Zionist leader.

Abu Sittah is a liar.

He further said:

When you hear what they did to Dr. Mohammed Abu Salmiya, the medical director of Al-Shifa Hospital, who they arrested, to try to get him to go on TV and say that there are tunnels under Al-Shifa Hospital. They broke his arms. They made him walk on all fours with a chain around his neck. They made him eat from a plate on the floor in front of the other doctors, because he refused to go on TV and say that the Israelis were right. The Israelis were hoping to get a victory photo in front of Al-Shifa Hospital, but they didn't get one. They didn't get a victory photo.

When Salmiya was released, he gave a press conference. While he did claim he was tortured, he didn't say anything about his arms being broken or his neck being chained or his being forced to eat from a plate on the floor. If those things happened, and he had world media in front of him, why wouldn't he say it?

Abu Sittah is a liar.

So the Institute for Palestine Studies hired an established liar to document....more lies.

Sounds about right.

(h/t Irene)

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By Daled Amos

Israel's attack on Iran caught everyone by surprise.
Later, the US bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan caught people by surprise, too.

So maybe it makes sense that Trump's announcement of a ceasefire was also a surprise:

After the podcasts started to sink their teeth into the implications of Operation Midnight Hammer, delving into questions such as the future of Iran's nuclear program, the stability of the region, and whether Israel had an exit ramp--Trump was again one step ahead, and announced a timetable for the end of hostilities by both sides.

Of course, in the Middle East, ceasefires are not easy to come by. Just look at Gaza. And there is the underlying suspicion that a ceasefire is just a hudna--an opportunity to rest, rearm, and resume hostilities at a more fortuitous moment.

But has Iran even agreed to a ceasefire?

It's not as if Iran was in a rush to admit to the implied weakness of agreeing.

Back in 1988, Ayatollah Khomeini referred to the decision to agree to a ceasefire to end the 8-year-long Iran-Iraq War as "a chalice of poison." Ayatollah Khamenei cannot be feeling any better agreeing to a ceasefire ending a war that lasted 12 days.

That explains some of the face-saving claims on social media.

Monday night, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, denied there was any ceasefire:

But that didn't stop him from posting just 15 minutes later:

That was quite a turnaround.

MEMRI shared something similar with a video of Iranian General Ebrahim Jabbari, advisor to the IRGC Chief. On Iran State TV. He proclaimed the need to "chop off Trump's hand...slit Netanyahu's throat...annihilate Israel."

But Jabbari went much further than that, led by the woman interviewing him. She refers to what she claims are the over 1,000 casualties suffered in Israel:

Not to be outdone, the general goes on to brag that every single Iranian missile penetrates Israel's defenses:

The interviewer is not finished. She goes on to claim that the whole world supports Iran:

She then goes on to claim unanimous world support not only for Iran to have a nuclear program, but also for Iran to have a nuclear bomb:

Watch the whole video on MEMRI.

Iran is going into propaganda overdrive to save face as it agrees to Trump's ceasefire, similar to the missiles it fired at the US army base in Qatar--after giving advance warning.

We are only at the very beginning stages of this ceasefire, but considering the numerous benefits not only to Israel but to the region as a whole, Iran's neighbors can afford to be generous and allow its face-saving measures. Once the agreement takes hold, the focus can turn to Hamas and its hostages.

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Israel's brilliance changed the Middle East, and the entire world, for the better. What happens next?

This video clip, of the late IRGC General Gholamali Rashid speaking in 2021, is going around:

May God have mercy upon the martyr Hajj Qasem Soleimani. Three months before his martyrdom, at a meeting of the Khatam Al-Alanbiya HQ, with the commanders of the armed forces, he said: ...'I have assembled for you six armies outside of Iran's territory, and I have created a corridor 1,500km long and 1,000km wide, all the way to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In this corridor, there are six religiously devout and popular divisions. Any enemy that decides to fight against the Islamic Revolution, and against the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, will have to go through these six armies. It won't be able to do so.

'One army is in Lebanon. It is called Hizbullah. Another army is in Palestine, and it is called Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. One army is in Syria. Another army is in Iraq, and is called the PMU, and another army is in Yemen and is called Ansar Allah [Houthis.]

'This has created deterrence in the service of our dear Iran. ...The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses two elements of power: The first is a powerful armed force which is ready for battle, and prepared to defend from within Iran's territory against any foreign invader, and the second is a regional force outside of Iran's territory.'

This was Iran's proxy strategy, and Israel managed to defeat it almost singlehandedly. The Shia Crescent is broken.

Hezbollah's military might and willingness to use it has been severely degraded, both by losing in its war last year with Israel and by the Lebanese government and people asserting control for the first time in decades over a foreign militia that is controlled by Iran. This contributed significantly to the fall of Syria. This allowed Israel to directly attack Iran without fear of Iran's proxies shooting tens of thousands of missiles at its population centers, which was the major limiting factor in the past. Israel's total decapitation of Iran's air defenses and complete control over Iran's skies dissuaded the Iraqi and Yemeni proxies from doing much more than rhetorical support for Iran. And the US showing its support for Israel in the most spectacular way dashed the hopes of Iran that the two countries were at loggerheads.

Against the backdrop of this speech, the accomplishments of the IDF are not only spectacular but miraculous. Israel made "shock and awe" a truly workable strategy: the previous tactic of ending wars in an ambiguous way only emboldened the Islamists, but Israel's ability to defeat their enemies not only militarily but psychologically has stunned the world: assassinating enemy leaders, showing unimagined intelligence incredible integration of intelligence and air power, unprecedented use of technology.

Not least is Israel's consistent defiance of the so-called experts and national leaders who thought that none of this was possible. Israel realizes that the diplomacy that the West insists is the only way to stop conflict is itself a weapon in the hands of actors like Iran. Israel's willingness to stand up to international pressure is a major part of its stunning victory.

October 7 was the low point in Israel's history. But it learned its lessons incredibly quickly.

And it now comes full circle: Hamas, while weakened, remained a threat as long as Iran could fund it and rebuild it. Whether the US will quietly work towards regime change or not (and Trump's suggestion that it might probably also had a major effect on Iran's accepting a ceasefire), Iran's position as a regional power has been dealt a major blow. Israel can be a little more flexible about Hamas continuing to exist in some form when it knows that it has no easy path to strengthen again. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have effectively lost their main patron, and it is not so clear that Turkey or Qatar will step in to fill that vacuum.

The ramifications of Iran's defeat go beyond Israel.

Russia had been a strategic and military partner with Iran, but it stayed out of this war. Iran's ability to provide Russia with drones has probably been severely impacted.

China had invested a great deal of its Belt and Road Initiative into the Shia Crescent, which projects its power to the Mediterranean. The new Syrian government, focused on reconstruction, has signaled openness to China but is hedging by seeking Western and Gulf aid, limiting BRI prospects in the near term. China also gets much of its oil from Iran at a discount, although that does not seem to be in jeopardy at this moment. China, by concentrating on economic soft power, is much more adaptable to new circumstances. I expect China to put a great deal of effort into spying on Israel to try to steal Israel's military technology it has used in these wars and to defend itself against those technologies. Israel's military victories make authoritarian regimes nervous.

The biggest wildcard is the Gulf states. While they have been hedging their bets between Iran and the West, between the whiplash in policy changes from Bush to Obama to Trump to Biden to Trump, the tend to gravitate towards the "strong horse" and that is clearly Israel and the US, despite domestic opposition to Israel. I am not sure Saudi Arabia will rush into the Abraham Accords. While Gulf states may deepen under-the-radar ties with Israel, their hedging - balancing U.S. security with Chinese economic partnerships - will shape their response and influence Russia and China’s regional strategies.

Israel's achievement are remarkable. Donald Trump's instincts to stay away from foreign entanglements means that Israel, whether it wants to be or not, is now the unquestioned regional superpower. Let's hope that its diplomatic moves in the coming months and years are as brilliant as its military moves have been.

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.@UNRWA "Palestine Refugee" status: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave

I have noted many times that UNRWA has no cessation rules for its "refugees" meaning, it is literally impossible for a UNRWA "refugee" to lose that status. they can become citizens of Western nations; they can be native born children of billionaires in theUS, they can be members of Congress - but UNRWA still counts them as refugees.

In fact, I made this post exactly ten years ago to describe the difference between UNRWA and a real refugee agency:

Mo Ghaoul, a naturalized American citizen, went to UNRWA to ask for two things: one, how to register his American-born child as a "refugee," and the other is how to delist himself as a refugee.

1. Registering my child:

They asked for a certified birth certificate and other paperwork (the person handling it was on break).
I didn’t push. Said I’d consider.
I was encouraged to register ; there's a $50/child incentive.
[But this "bonus" is rare; most people get nothing. When it does happen, it’s like a once-a-year Christmas gift.]

2. Removing refugee status:

I asked to strike my refugee records. They said:

“You can go to the Palestinian Ministry of Social Development to remove your national data. But here at UNRWA, we’ll just update your nationality.”

I pushed back:

I’m naturalized. I still hold a Palestinian Authority passport, and I do not want to remove my Palestinian registration just that I no longer identify as a refugee.

Their reply?

“We have no process to delete records. Why remove it? It doesn’t harm you.”

I explained my reasons, but the answer was the same. There’s no form, no request, no path.

They just said: Let it go.
(Kindly, but clearly unsure themselves as they’re local employees.)

It's nice to know that when I couldn't find cessation clauses in UNRWA documentation, it was because they don't exist.

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06/23 Links Pt2: Tyrannical Regimes and the Westerners Who Love Them; ‘Jew hatred is a form of ideological brain worms’; Israeli economy defies war fears as Tel Aviv stocks surge to record highs

From Ian:

Seth Mandel: Tyrannical Regimes and the Westerners Who Love Them

Iranian actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi has issued a heartfelt plea to the Western protest class that I fear will fall on deaf ears. Just as the Palestinians who have made it out of Gaza and can speak freely tried, in vain, to convince the anti-Zionist demonstrators to not lionize Hamas, so are Iranian democracy activists learning about the Western fascination and identification with tyrannical regimes.

The Iranian regime “unleashes its fury, first and foremost, on its own people,” Boniadi told PBS’s Newshour. The regime has shut down Internet access across Iran and has been arresting dissidents to ensure that those who want freedom cannot organize against the government while it is weak. Therefore “we have to separate the Islamic Republic from Iran because most of the Iranian people believe [the regime] is an occupying force.”

She closed with a plea: “I urge Westerners, please, if you want to stand for Iran and the Iranian people and their sovereignty, please don’t conflate that with the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty, they are two different things. Do not raise the Islamic Republic’s flag in your rallies. That is a slap in the face to every dissident, every Iranian who has risked everything for freedom.”

Yet of course this weekend there were those very Islamic Republic of Iran flags on the streets of New York City. The flags of Hamas and Hezbollah—which are also, by the way, Islamic Republic of Iran flags, technically—were replaced by the logo of a tyrannical regime in Tehran. In London, where Boniadi grew up, Islamic Republic flags intermingled with large signs displaying the face of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the words “choose the right side of history.”

To the protesters in the West, the “right side of history” is the unrelenting oppression and repression of the Iranian people.

Just how upside-down is the world of campus-style activism can be seen in another sign going around the world of “pro-Palestinian” activism. Students for Justice in Palestine, the overarching organizing arm of the Hamas support network on campus, has been promoting a new line: “The Empire Will Fall: From Gaza to Tehran.”

This is meant to evoke both places as graveyards of Western capitalist and militarist “imperialism,” but I had to pause for a moment to make sure I was reading it right. Because the empire that runs from Gaza to Tehran (or the reverse) is falling. But it’s certainly not an American one.

Brendan O'Neill: The ‘Forever War’ we should really be worried about

The absolution of Iran by both leftists and rightists speaks to the wholesale evacuation of moral principle from the ‘anti-war’ position. What poses as ‘anti-imperialism’ today is often just anti-Westernism: a politics of grating historical guilt and showy self-loathing that views the wicked West as the author of every global calamity and nations like Iran as the hapless NPCs of world affairs. Ironically, there’s the pungent whiff of racial infantilism in these hot takes. Non-Western nations are reduced to child-like entities, so morally primitive that they lack the capacity to take responsibility for what they do. There is nothing ‘progressive’ in this imperious paternalism that feverishly demonises the nations of the West and acquits the Jew-killers of the East.

Handwringing abounds over Trump’s strikes on Iran and the possibility that this is yet another ‘Forever War’. It remains to be seen whether America’s strikes turn into something bigger, something more destabilising. But what worries me right now is the blindness of political actors across the West to the true Forever War, the Forever War that started this current war. That is, the war of Iran against the Jewish nation; the war of Islamism against the Jews; the war of tyrannical theocracy against democracy.

For the 46 years of its existence, the Islamic Republic has been devoted to the destruction of the Jewish State. Its military policy, education system and annual Quds Day are infused with this grim dream of annihilating the ‘Zionist regime’. Iranian children are taught to hate Israel. The Israeli flag is set alight on official parades. The proxies of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are funded and trained to the end of attacking Israel and slaughtering its people. Iran backed Hamas throughout the Second Intifada when it vaporised young Israelis in discotheques and pizza restaurants, and in the run-up to 7 October when it visited such fascist horrors upon southern Israel. There’s your Forever War – not Trump’s 18-hour mission against Iran’s nuclear sites but Iran’s almost 50-year mission to lay apocalyptic waste to the world’s only Jewish nation.

It’s not clear whether America’s strikes will temper hostilities in the Middle East or destabilise things further. But, at this moment, there are other morally pressing questions to ask. Why do so many in the West fail to take seriously the threat posed by Iranian tyranny? Why are they so blasé about the ceaseless targeting of Israel by Jew-hating militias? Why do so many of our educated seem to sympathise more with the bigots of Tehran than with the Jews of those kibbutzim decimated by Tehran’s barbarous emissaries? That some in the West have shed more tears over the destruction of Iranian infrastructure than they did over the destruction of the 70-year-old Jew Ofra Kedar shines the harshest light on our moral crisis.

Gad Saad: ‘Jew hatred is a form of ideological brain worms’

Since 7 October 2023, anti-Semitism has exploded across the West. Violent attacks on synagogues and ‘hate marches’ against Israel are now a feature of life in every Western capital. The well educated and woke in the cultural elite seem especially vulnerable to this dangerous way of thinking. New life has been breathed into the oldest hatred.

Gad Saad – evolutionary psychologist and author of The Parasitic Mind – witnessed a similar surge in anti-Semitism when he grew up in Lebanon in the 1970s. He sat down with spiked’s Fraser Myers to discuss what’s gone wrong in the West and how we can confront the mindset that produces this poison. You can watch the full conversation here.

Fraser Myers: What resonances are there between your upbringing in Lebanon and what we’re experiencing in the West today?

Gad Saad: I was among the last remaining Jews in Lebanon in the mid-1970s. Most of my extended family had already left – maybe they read the writing on the wall better than my parents did. Or maybe my parents read the writing on the wall and chose to ignore it.

It was a brutally nasty civil war, where former neighbours became arch enemies. During the first year, we saw things that no human being should see or experience. My parents took several return trips to Lebanon after we had emigrated to Canada, and on one of them, they were kidnapped by Fatah. So many of the things that we see today – the kidnapping of hostages and so on – are things that I lived through in my childhood.

Myers: When you were younger, one of the boys you were at school with said he wanted to be a ‘Jew killer’ when he grew up.

Saad: That’s right. In The Parasitic Mind, I’m trying to demonstrate that Jew hatred is not something that just arose as part of the civil war. When I was five years old, the president of Egypt, Gamal Abdel Nasser, died. The people were lamenting in the streets in Beirut, screaming, ‘Death to Jews, death to Jews’. When I turned to my mother to ask why, she said, ‘Keep your head down’. That was the first time I saw what endemic Jew hatred looked like.