Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Dear President Bush and Prime Minister Blair,
The nuclear threat from Iran and North Korea becomes ever more imminent, genocide goes unchecked in the Sudan, and the war against Islamic militancy rages across the globe. In these circumstances to suggest that the Israel-Palestine conflict is the most pressing issue of the day, and its solution (by way of creating a Palestinian State) the highest of all priorities to be addressed, is - if you will forgive my presumption in saying so - a preposterous proposition.
At this critical stage, the time has come for an honest and realistic assessment of the problems facing the democratic nations of the world.
For your own sakes as well as for ours free yourself from the shackles of conventional thinking. The Arabists of the State Department and the Foreign Office live in a bygone era, and old Europe is cynical and corrupt. Don’t heed their advice. You will neither gain Europe’s favour nor buy off the hostility of international Islamic militants (and the Arab states that openly or tacitly support them) by sacrificing Israel on the altar of appeasement. Nor will you be doing the Palestinians a favour by prematurely thrusting the forms of statehood upon a people in no way ready for its democratic substance. Abandon the shibboleth that somehow a Palestinian State at this time will contribute to a more stable and democratic Middle East, or a safer world.
Israel is a democratic state anxious to live in peace and harmony with its neighbours. We are prepared for peace, but not for suicide. The vision of two states living side-by-side in peace depends upon the establishment of a Palestinian leadership prepared to replace a despotic and corrupt oligarchy with true democracy, one willing to live in peace, capable of controlling the terrorists in its midst, one determined to convince its people that the Jewish State of Israel is legitimate and here to stay. There is no prospect of such a leadership emerging in the immediate future, and re-educating the Palestinian people for peace and amity, after decades of incitement to hate and violence, is the task of at least a generation. Therefore, a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict is, for this generation at least, not a realistic vision but an illusion, a pipe-dream.
The departure of Arafat does not alter this conclusion, at least not in the foreseeable future. Putting one’s faith in veteran Arafat loyalists like Abu Mazen and Abu Ala, in ruthless strong-men like Mohammed Dahlan or the convicted multiple-murderer Marwan Barghouti, is like entrusting post-Hitler Germany to Goering or Eichman. There may be some moderates in Palestine, but there is no moderate leadership waiting or able to take over. Transition from despotism to democracy is not an instant process. Post-war Germany and Japan, after the elimination of the entire tainted leadership, and under the tutelage and supervision of the Allied Forces, were guided and educated towards responsible democracy over a long period. The transition in the Soviet Union from Stalin to perestroika and glasnost took decades. For both Israel and the Palestinians – and eventually for the free world - ‘Statehood Now’ will prove to be as dangerous and costly a myth as ‘Peace Now’ has been!
. Premature statehood is not the solution of the Middle East conflict, but the creation of a new problem of infinitely more perilous dimensions.
The Israelites wandered in the wilderness for forty years, before a generation arose that was fit to enter the Promised Land. The Jews of Palestine developed the instruments of democratic governance for thirty years under the Mandate, before the Zionist enterprise matured and evolved into the State of Israel. The Palestinians need at least as long a period of tutelage and maturation before the concept of a democratic viable and independent Palestinian State can become a reality. To dream of a state may be a starting point, but to achieve statehood demands a learning process, a process of self-assessment and re-education, a willingness to take moral and practical responsibility, a transformation from violence to constructive work, and a long period of reconciliation, both internal and external.
Independence must be deserved, prepared for, earned.
Too much time and energy has been wasted, and too much blood has been spilt, in the fruitless pursuit of a viable two-state solution. This fixation has been at the cost of searching for more creative and realistic alternatives. For all our sakes turn your thoughts and efforts in new and more constructive directions. If you will it, they are there to be found.
Sincerely yours,
Professor Gilbert Herbert, Haifa, 7 November 2004
Technion, Haifa
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Magistrate Judge Arlander Keys said the defendants clearly knew the charitable funds they sent to Palestinian groups on the West Bank were destined for Hamas and that the group was involved in terrorism.
Stephen J. Landes, an attorney for the parents of the slain David Boim, said it was the first time a court had held U.S.-based organizations liable for terrorism abroad.
Keys ordered a Dec. 1 jury trial to decide how much must be paid by Texas-based Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development, the Islamic Association for Palestine and alleged Hamas fund-raiser Mohammed Salah of Chicago.
"This is a huge win for victims of terrorism," Landes said. "It shows the law works."
Boim's parents are seeking $600 million, though attorneys say there's little chance of collecting that amount.
Boim, 17, a yeshiva student, was shot and killed in 1996 while waiting for a bus in the West Bank. One of his Hamas attackers was caught and sentenced to 10 years in prison; the other died in a 1997 suicide bombing.
Boim's parents claim money from the charities found its way into Hamas coffers and therefore financed the type of violence that killed their son.
Holy Land Foundation attorney John Boyd said the charity had been unfairly singled out and called it "an enormous disappointment" that the judge found it liable before the case could go to a jury.
Attorney Brendan Shiller, representing the Islamic Association for Palestine, said the judge's decision "dangerously stretches theories of liabilities so you no longer have to prove cause and effect."
"We're definitely going to appeal," he said.
The defendants deny any ties to Hamas and argue that there was no evidence to show that money they sent to charities on the West Bank was tied to the Boim killing.
Keys, however, said the Boims didn't need to show that.
"Rather, the Boims need only show that the defendants were involved in an agreement to accomplish an unlawful act and that the attack that killed David Boim was a reasonably foreseeable consequence of the conspiracy," Keys said.
Keys made his decision without a trial — a "summary judgment" — that Salah and the two groups were liable based on evidence presented in court papers. He said the evidence was clear.
If the trial goes forward as planned, the jury will be asked to decide if a fourth defendant, Quranic Literacy Institute, must pay damages.
Boim's parents say the institute also is to blame because Salah worked there while allegedly raising funds for Hamas.
Quranic Literacy attorney John Beal said his clients "have maintained all along that they have absolutely nothing to do with the funding of Hamas."
Salah's assets have been impounded by the government, which wants them forfeited. He was indicted in Chicago in August with two other men on charges of financing terrorism and faces years in prison if convicted.
Holy Land Foundation's funds were impounded following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, and the group was charged in Dallas in August with funding terrorism.
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Haaretz reported Tuesday that Iranian drone experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards took part in the launch from Lebanon of a Hezbollah drone that spent several minutes over northern Israel this week.
On Wednesday, the Arab-language Al-Shark Al-Awsat newspaper, which is published in London, quoted a senior official in the Revolutionary Guards as saying that the drone was one of eight Iran-produced unmanned airborne vehicles that the country gave Hezbollah in August.
Iran also supplied Hezbollah with surface-to-surface missiles that have a 70-kilometer range, according to the report.
The official also said Iran had launched similar drones over Iraq to garner information on American military activity there.
The first launch of an Iranian drone by Hezbollah ended with the plane crashing on its way back to Lebanon. The drone apparently carried a camera capable of transmitting images while the plane is in motion.
The Hezbollah operatives were trained in the use of the plane by experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The Iranian activity can be regarded as a clear-cut case of aggression against Israel.
What makes it unusual is that Iranian military experts from the Revolutionary Guards sent their people to a third country to act against Israel. They have usually supported Palestinian terror groups with money or weapons, but in this case, Iranians were involved directly in launching the drone and preparing it for its mission.
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
An attack on the American Consulate in Jerusalem was also considered.
Bassam Hundkaji, one of two Nablus members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine arrested by the Shin Bet in connection with the attack, is suspected of leading the suicide bomber, 16-year-old Amar Al-Faar of the Askar refugee camp, from the West Bank across the Green Line into Israel.
Hundkaji's entry into Israel was eased by a journalist's identification card he had obtained through his studies at A-Najah University in Nablus.
Hundkaji told Shin Bet investigators that a day before the attack, he visited Jerusalem and practiced moving around the city without alerting the suspicions of Israeli security forces.
Enlisting the help of an Arab taxi driver from eastern Jerusalem, Bashar Abasi, he also examined other possible targets. Hundkaji and Abasi were joined by the driver's brother, Jamal, who was arrested by Israeli security forces earlier in the week.
To reach Jerusalem, Hundkaji left Nablus on foot and skirted the Israel Defense Forces checkpoint at the city's southern exit. He took taxis to Qalandiyah and Abu Dis without passing any roadblocks, and then took a bus to the Old City's Damascus Gate area and went from there to western Jerusalem.
On his return home to Nablus the day prior to the attack, Hundkaji passed through a checkpoint in the Tapuah area of the West Bank, but did not rouse the suspicions of soldiers stationed there.
The decision to carry out the attack in Tel Aviv was apparently made at the last minute, the Shin Bet investigation revealed.
On the morning of the attack, Al-Faar left his Nablus home, traveled to the Jerusalem area and from there continued on to Tel Aviv.
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
If Israel withdraws from the Strip do you support or reject launching
attacks against Israel from inside the Strip?
I strongly support 22.5 [Gaza Strip 30.2]
I support 33.8 [Gaza Strip 20.8]
I reject 26.5 [Gaza Strip 24.6]
I strongly reject 10.4 [Gaza Strip 17.6]
No opinion; I do not know 6.8 [Gaza Strip 6.8]
If Israel is really committed to a new ceasefire, do you support or reject a
new ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Authority?
I strongly support 18.2 [Gaza Strip 29.4]
I support 48.3 [Gaza Strip 38.0]
I reject 21.1 [Gaza Strip 16.0]
I strongly reject 8.8 [Gaza Strip11.8]
No opinion; I don not know 3.6 [Gaza Strip 4.8]
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
The settlement was aimed at persuading Suha Arafat to allow completion of the tests that would finally determine the chairman's death. Contacts between Suha Arafat and the Palestinian financiers began as soon as it became clear that Arafat would have to be flown to France for emergency medical treatment.
The French have been exasperated by Suha Arafat's refusal, permissible under French law, to allow others access to he husband's room in the Percy Military Hospital near Paris.
According to the sources, contacts between Suha Arafat and the Palestinian Authority were renewed on Monday night, with the arrival in Paris of Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, former prime minister Mahmoud Abbas, and Nabil Sha'ath. After exhaustive negotiations, Suha Arafat agreed to allow Qureia, accompanied by the head of the chairman's personal guard, to enter his room. The visit went ahead yesterday afternoon.
French officials who have been following Yasser Arafat's treatment were astonished to discover that Suha Arafat's constant companion and financial adviser was none other than Pierre Rizk, who headed the intelligence service of the Phalanga during the Lebanese civil war and was in close personal contact with the guerrilla group responsible for the massacre at the Sabra and Shatilla refugee camp in 1982.
Rizk has been spotted in or near Percy Hospital in recent days. Since Rizk holds power of attorney for Suha Arafat, French and Palestinian officials have been in constant contact with him over Suha Arafat's financial demands, which she says are designed to ensure the financial future of her and her daughter. The outcome of these contacts is still not clear.
Rizk, a Maronite Lebanese, is well known to Israeli officials, and has spent long periods in Israel where he met with government officials and private business figures. Israelis who have met with him in person describe him as a colorful figure, and say that he is something of a womanizer.
Because of his position within the Phalangas, he has extensive contacts with several international intelligence agencies. Living in Paris since his exile from Lebanon, Rizk is an international businessman with operations in Europe and the United States.
In 1999, Rizk won a legal suit he filed in the U.S. courts against the PA. The suit, which created quite a stir in financial circles in the PA, was based on a promise made to Rizk by Yasser Arafat just before the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, that he would be granted the license to develop the communications infrastructure in the West Bank.
Rizk obtained a note, signed by Arafat, in which he undertook to award the contract to International Technology Integrated (ITI), a company incorporated in the U.S. At the same time, it now appears that Arafat was handing out similar notes to many other people and companies, promising them jobs, tenders and contracts in his future government.
In practice, none of these promises were ever fulfilled. Unlike other disappointed parties, Rizk decided to sue Arafat for violating his word, and was awarded $18 million. As a result, American banks froze $80 million of the PA's money, threatening its stability. The crisis was eventually ended when the PA sent envoys Paris to negotiate a settlement.
- Wednesday, November 10, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Under this pretense, Chirac was absent when Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi went to Brussels to meet with the European Union members to discuss the future of Iraq.
One is stunned by Chirac's priorities when it comes to international issues.
Chirac's dangerous liaisons with dictators have created a hidden diplomatic principle: preserving the stability of dictatorship rather than promoting democracy.
"Betrayal" is the only word that comes to mind. French diplomacy as a whole is sullied by this position, at least as long as Chirac remains president.
China and Iraq are two examples of his leniency toward dictatorship.
China may open its doors to the free market economy, and liberalization of its society is on the way. But it is still a communist dictatorship.
This dictatorship is celebrated to such a degree in France that last February the Eiffel Tower was illuminated in red: the symbol of communism, yes – but one might also think of the blood of the victims murdered by such a despotic power.
Ignoring the consequences to the Chinese supporters of democracy, Chirac has pleaded for France and the EU to be able to sell weapons to China. A few weeks ago, in Beijing, he again asked that the embargo be lifted, seemingly forgetting that weapons sold to a dictatorship can only be used against freedom.
But for the French president this moral assumption obviously carries little value.
Iraq represents the ugliest side of French diplomacy.
French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier recently stated that France wanted to include "those who have chosen the path of armed resistance" at the negotiation table with the present Iraqi government and the coalition.
Bluntly put, this resistance represents either Saddam's henchmen or Islamic fundamentalists. Either way, France is supporting dictatorship.
It is a subtle way to question the legitimacy of Allawi's government.
That is why France is ordering the Iraqi government to give democratic guarantees it wouldn't even dare ask of friendly authorities, in the Arab world or elsewhere.
In the long run – as far as the Middle East is concerned – the US will be better off with Bush's diplomatic legacy than France will be with Chirac's, a legacy that may live in infamy once a true democratic vision guides French diplomacy.
On domestic matters, Chirac usually follows the public opinion polls. He does the same with foreign affairs.
But statecraft is not a matter of polls, and a statesman must know when to go against isolationist temptation and public-opinion pacifism.
It is the very same public opinion, especially in Europe, that anathematized Bush.
What were his crimes? Establishing a democracy in Afghanistan, toppling a dictator, and sowing the seeds for free and open societies to grow in the Middle East.
But instead of wanting Bush to be defeated in the last elections for promoting democracy, Western public opinion should have demanded Chirac's dismissal for siding with dictators.
It is stunningly hard to believe that the former could be preferred, but the upside-down nature of public opinion seems to confirm it.
A sad reality! Yet the promotion of free and open societies must become a priority for French diplomacy, and for Europe generally.
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
- Tuesday, November 09, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
In light of Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza, to take place in 2005, and the termination of Yasser Arafat's hold on power, the eventual take-over of the Gaza Strip by Hamas certainly cannot be ruled out. Would a Gaza 'Hamas-stan' become another al-Qaeda sanctuary in the future? In the past, al-Qaeda sought to establish itself wherever there was a security vacuum - in remote mountain areas or in economically weak, failed states. Would a security vacuum in a post-withdrawal Gaza facilitate al-Qaeda's entry there?
The affinity of Hamas for groups that are part of the al-Qaeda network was dramatically demonstrated in 2004 when Hamas distributed computer CDs in the West Bank and Gaza that express the organization's identification with Chechen terrorists and with other 'holy wars' in the Balkans, Kashmir, and Afghanistan.
Al-Qaeda and Hamas are often funded by the same people and organizations. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, 'Hamas [leaders]...often use the very same methods and even the same institutions [as al-Qaeda] to raise and move their money.'
Both al-Qaeda and Hamas legitimize the use of suicide bombing based on the same religious authorities: Sheikh Salman al-Auda (Saudi), Sheikh Safar al-Hawali (Saudi), Sheikh Hamud bin Uqla al-Shuaibi (Saudi), Sheikh Sulaiman al-Ulwan (Saudi), and Sheikh Qardhawi (Egypt-Qatar). All five clerics appear on the Hamas website.
To prevent a safe haven for terrorism from emerging in Gaza, Israel must maintain control over the strategic envelope around Gaza even after its disengagement, particularly air, land, and sea access to the territory, though Israel will face enormous international pressure to ease its grip as a gesture to a post-Arafat regime.
Similarly, Western powers may seek to limit Israel's freedom of movement to re-enter Gaza, should security conditions deteriorate (i.e., an increase in Kassam rocket attacks on Israel). Ironically, by seeking to neutralize Israeli military power, Western states would help create the very sort of security vacuum in Gaza that al-Qaeda requires in order to establish a new sanctuary.
"
- Tuesday, November 09, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Asked to choose whether the Palestinian Authority chairman is a 'hero of national resistance' or a terrorist, 43 percent chose the former and 27% the latter.
Ten percent said Arafat fit into both categories, while 9% said he was neither.
The poll, published Monday and commissioned jointly by the Liberation newspaper and a national public radio station, also found that three times as many French people hold Prime Minister Ariel Sharon more responsible for Middle East violence than hold Arafat.
In addition, 34% said they had more sympathy for the Palestinians, as opposed to 13% for Israel.
- Tuesday, November 09, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
There is, in the world of diplomacy, only one type of leader with whom one must never negotiate under any circumstance - the leader who is a liar. It isn't a question of moral principle. It's a purely pragmatic question of utility. A terrorist who can be trusted to keep his word is a man you can do business with. It is impossible, though, to do business with a liar. There is no point in making agreements with someone who does not believe in the importance of keeping them.
This is a truth so simple and so obvious that it seems all but impossible to understand now how it could have eluded those who welcomed the disaster of Oslo with open arms 11 years ago. They thought that lying, like terrorism, was something that, if done up to a point for a purpose, could be after that point given up. They didn't realize that a man who has lied all his life will go on lying right up to his death. (NY Sun)
Monday, November 08, 2004
- Monday, November 08, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
Associate Professor of Public Policy Alberto Abadie examined data on terrorism and variables such as wealth, political freedom, geography, and ethnic fractionalization for nations that have been targets of terrorist attacks.
Abadie, whose work was published in the Kennedy School's Faculty Research Working Paper Series, included both acts of international and domestic terrorism in his analysis.
Though after the 9/11 attacks most of the work in this area has focused on international terrorism, Abadie said terrorism originating within the country where the attacks occur actually makes up the bulk of terrorist acts each year. According to statistics from the MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base for 2003, which Abadie cites in his analysis, there were 1,536 reports of domestic terrorism worldwide, compared with just 240 incidents of international terrorism.
Before analyzing the data, Abadie believed it was a reasonable assumption that terrorism has its roots in poverty, especially since studies have linked civil war to economic factors. However, once the data was corrected for the influence of other factors studied, Abadie said he found no significant relationship between a nation's wealth and the level of terrorism it experiences.
"In the past, we heard people refer to the strong link between terrorism and poverty, but in fact when you look at the data, it's not there. This is true not only for events of international terrorism, as previous studies have shown, but perhaps more surprisingly also for the overall level of terrorism, both of domestic and of foreign origin," Abadie said.
Instead, Abadie detected a peculiar relationship between the levels of political freedom a nation affords and the severity of terrorism. Though terrorism declined among nations with high levels of political freedom, it was the intermediate nations that seemed most vulnerable.
Like those with much political freedom, nations at the other extreme - with tightly controlled autocratic governments - also experienced low levels of terrorism.
Though his study didn't explore the reasons behind the trends he researched, Abadie said it could be that autocratic nations' tight control and repressive practices keep terrorist activities in check, while nations making the transition to more open, democratic governments - such as currently taking place in Iraq and Russia - may be politically unstable, which makes them more vulnerable.
"When you go from an autocratic regime and make the transition to democracy, you may expect a temporary increase in terrorism," Abadie said.
Abadie's study also found a strong connection in the data between terrorism and geographic factors, such as elevation or tropical weather.
"Failure to eradicate terrorism in some areas of the world has often been attributed to geographic barriers, like mountainous terrain in Afghanistan or tropical jungle in Colombia. This study provides empirical evidence of the link between terrorism and geography," Abadie said.
In Abadie's opinion, the connection between geography and terrorism is hardly surprising.
"Areas of difficult access offer safe haven to terrorist groups, facilitate training, and provide funding through other illegal activities like the production and trafficking of cocaine and opiates," Abadie wrote in the paper.
A native of Spain's Basque region, Abadie said he has long been interested in terrorism and related issues. His past research has explored the effect of terrorism on economic activity, using the Basque country as a case study.
Abadie is turning his attention to the effect of terrorism on international capital flows. Some analysts have argued that terrorist attacks wouldn't have much of an impact on the economy, since unlike a war's widespread damage, the damage from terrorist attacks tends to be relatively small or confined to a small area.
In an era of open international capital markets, however, Abadie said terrorism may have a greater chilling effect than previously thought, since even a low risk of damage from a terrorist attack may be enough to send investors looking elsewhere.
- Monday, November 08, 2004
- Elder of Ziyon
This is what you can find outside the French hospital where Arafat is rotting.
From SFGate.com:
Well-wishers have created a makeshift shrine of flowers, candles and messages of support outside the hospital where Yasser Arafat is being treated.
People of all ages have come to this well-heeled Paris suburb bearing bouquets and signs of encouragement, in French and Arabic. Flowers line the wall for about 40 yards, melted wax dots the sidewalk and burning candles perfume the air.
Arafat was airlifted to the Percy Military Training Hospital on Oct. 29 from his West Bank compound. He's suffering from an ailment that doctors either haven't pinpointed or publicly disclosed.
Photos of Arafat also hang from the wall, as do huge Palestinian flags and photos of the Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and Gaza.
One long, white poster says: "The wind will never make the mountain tremble. We promise you that we will continue the struggle until victory." It's signed "the Moroccans of Clamart."
A solitary Algerian, who said he had been keeping watch over the shrine for five nights in a row, said he was keeping vigil at what "has become a mosque" for Arafat.
The man, who refused to give his name, said he had spent part of the night cleaning up the site, arranging the flowers and keeping the candles lit.
In one message pinned to the wall, Ines Sebti, who wrote that she was 7, drew a picture of the Palestinian flag with two red hearts and the words "vive Arafat."