Showing posts with label normalization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label normalization. Show all posts

Thursday, September 28, 2023



Writing in Alaraby, Hulmi al-Asmar writes that normalization maybe isn't so bad - that perhaps if Arab nations act nicely to Israel, Israel will implode from infighting since it is dependent on aggression.

Setting aside his main argument, al-Asmar gives a brief description of how Arab leaders have used the Palestinian issue for their own benefit, and how they have actually hurt the Palestinians with this cynical pretense.
For years, official Arab discourse used to murmur a heavy [Palestinian] "nationalist" sentiment, to the effect that "Palestine is the Arabs' top issue." From this slogan, a series of canned phrases emerged that affirmed standing by the Palestinian people and calling for their victory. Preachers filled the space with resonant speech in forums all over the world, and printed millions of pages with them. Books, poems, and commentaries were written about it, and they pulled their voices and roared their throats with enthusiastic songs. Millions of statements, and thousands of conferences and summits were also held, all of which threatened the enemy, or at least “confirmed its position in support of the Palestinian people, and their right to establish their independent state and defeat the occupation.” More than that, under the heading of “confronting the Zionist threat,” billions were spent on arming their armies, while morsels of bread were withheld from the mouths of the hungry, in preparation for the decisive battle with the “enemy” to build what they called “Arab national security,” and for that purpose legislation, emergency laws, and martial law were enacted. How can it not, when the nation is in a state of war and on constant alert? Therefore, there is no time for the luxury of “democracy,” nor for the “mockery” of elections, social justice, and other rights. This is not the time (!), as the nation is passing through a “delicate circumstance” and a “turning point.” It is a "dangerous time in history" and a "sensitive stage" that requires not paying attention to these "trivialities", and focusing effort on confronting "the enemy's plans" aimed at tearing apart the Arab ranks, and undermining "national dignity and nationalism!", etc., to the end of this series of great lies that may have passed on the minds of the "masses"... So what was the result?

Israel is expanding and strengthening every day, while Palestine is withering, and its nakba has been “Arabized” and reproduced. It was not limited to the Palestinian people, but the Arab regime produced other versions and more and revised versions of the Arab catastrophes, so that almost every Arab country has its own nakba. 
This is stuff we've been saying for many years.  It is rare indeed to see these words in Arabic:





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Wednesday, September 27, 2023



Yesterday, Saudi diplomat Nayef al-Sudairi arrived in Ramallah as the Saudi envoy to the Palestinian Authority.

He did all the things skittish Palestinians want to see as they get increasingly nervous about a Saudi-Israel normalization deal that leaves them behind.

The position is called "ambassador" implying that Palestine is a real country.

Al-Sudairi visited Yasir Arafat's grave and placed a wreath on his tomb. He also visited the Yasir Arafat Museum.

He told Abbas at the official ceremony "God willing, this visit will be the beginning of strengthening more relations in all fields.” 

He tweeted, "From the beloved state of #Palestine #Land_of_Canaan, the most beautiful greetings, coupled with the love of my Lord #the_Custodian_of_the_Two_Holy_Mosques and His Highness Sir #the_Crown_Prince."

But all of this pomp and ceremony is geared towards what Palestinians love the most: symbolism. They crave relevance and respect and often confuse those with actual gains. 

For over a decade now, Palestinians have done nothing to advance peace or to make the lives of their people any better, but they celebrate anything that gives them apparent legitimacy. The official Wafa news agency is filled with press releases of Abbas sending or receiving congratulatory messages with real countries. 

The Saudis have turned into world class politicians. They have skillfully managed relations with both China and the US, and they are doing the same between Iran and Israel. They are working hard to include Israel into their vision of an integrated Middle East that they lead. Their US ambassador Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud described their vision last July:
Her country envisions Israel belonging to an “integrated Middle East”. 

In line with Saudi Vision 2030, the diplomat said that Riyadh desires a “thriving Israel” and a “thriving Palestine”, adding that “Vision 2030 talks about a unified, integrated, thriving Middle East, and last I checked Israel was there…we want a thriving Red Sea economy”.

Princess Reema stressed that Saudi Arabia’s focus is on integration, not normalisation, with Israel. “We don’t say normalisation, we talk about an integrated Middle East, unified [as] a bloc like Europe, where we all have sovereign rights and sovereign states, but we have a shared and common interest,” asserted the Saudi ambassador.

“So that’s not normalisation. Normalisation is you’re sitting there, and I’m sitting here, and we kind of coexist, but separately. Integration means our people collaborate, our businesses collaborate, and our youth thrive.”
The Saudis are smartly offering intangibles to Israel, the US and Palestinians to gain in exchange real physical benefits - a civilian nuclear program that could become the basis of a military nuclear program if Iran builds a nuclear weapon, a mutual defense pact with the US, and access to top-level military and intelligence technology. 

The pretense of embracing Palestinian nationhood is mostly lip service so the Palestinians don't try to blow up normalization with Israel. Normalization with Israel is a carrot to get the US to provide the green light for the arms and civilian nuclear program (which also requires Israel's approval.) Acting warmly with China and Iran gives incentive for the US and Israel to not want to be left behind. And ultimately, Saudi Arabia wants a Middle East where it is the leader and major beneficiary of all commercial, political and even religious decisions. 

Israel has to think long and hard about the costs and benefits of normalization. It shouldn't only look at the intangibles, because many of the tangible benefits of peace are already there. Israel is already meeting with Saudis, it is probably already sharing intelligence with Saudis, it is probably already trading with Saudis via the UAE. Saudi Arabia won't veto the proposed rail line that would speed up trade with Europe via Haifa if a full peace deal is not signed. 

In may ways, Israel's vision of the Middle East dovetails with Saudi Arabia's. It just shouldn't be seduced by symbolism, the way the Saudis are doing with the Palestinians. 





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Monday, September 04, 2023

The Iranian Tasnim News Agency reports:
The leader of the Islamic Al-Wafa Movement in Bahrain, Mr. Murtada Al-Sindi, affirmed that no one can guarantee the safety and stability of the Zionist entity in Bahrain.

On the implications and objectives of the visit of the Zionist entity's foreign minister, Eli Cohen, to Bahrain, the leader of the Islamic Al-Wafa Movement in Bahrain, Mr. Mortada Al-Sindi, said in a statement to the correspondent of Tasnim News Agency that the government chose its position in the struggle of the axes, and the people of Bahrain also determined their position, the  government chose to be with the Zionists and a tail of Israel, while the people of Bahrain chose to be with the axis of resistance and the Palestinian cause.

Regarding the possibility of a popular resistance to the Zionist presence in Bahrain, he said, the natural reaction to the presence of the usurping entity in Bahrain is resistance and rejection, and the people of Bahrain are jealous and religious people, and all segments of Bahraini society and all sects of society have expressed their rejection of the Zionist presence, but no one guarantees that it  [civil disobedience alone] will continue ...Matters are subject to escalation and may be manifested in resistance movements and factions to confront the bastard presence of the usurping Zionist entity of the holy land of Palestine.

He added that the violations and crimes committed by the Zionist entity against our brothers and loved ones in occupied Palestine turn into lava in the chests of our people, and this lava may erupt at any moment and turn into a movement of resistance to the Zionist presence in Bahrain, and no one can guarantee the Zionist entity's safety and stability in Bahrain. .
This is a threat of violence on Bahraini soil. But there is a little element of deniability, claiming that any such violence would be from regular Bahraini citizens who are fed up, not organized by Al Sindi's superiors in Iran. 

Israel and Bahrain agreed to improve their trade ties today. 




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It's happening again:

A delegation of top American officials is slated to travel to Riyadh this week to meet with Saudi counterparts in order to discuss a potential normalization agreement between the Gulf kingdom and Israel, a US official and a Palestinian official told The Times of Israel on Sunday.

The visit by White House Middle East czar Brett McGurk and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf will come just over a month after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia with the same objective, pointing to Washington’s continued determination to broker an elusive deal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also visited Riyadh on the same mission in June.

McGurk and Leaf’s visit will overlap with that of a Palestinian delegation led by Palestine Liberation Organization executive committee secretary-general Hussein al-Sheikh, who will be in Riyadh to discuss what Ramallah is hoping to obtain from a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, the two officials said.
So the US is speaking to Saudi Arabia about conditions on Israel to accept a normalization deal.

The US is speaking to Palestinians about conditions on Israel to accept a normalization deal.

The Palestinians are speaking to the Saudis about conditions on Israel to accept a normalization deal.

Everyone is speaking to each other - about Israel, but not to Israel. 

Are there backchannels from Israel to Saudi Arabia? Probably. Is the Israeli government in charge of these backchannels? 

We have no idea. 

But we do know that the Biden administration and the Palestinians are not keen to negotiate with Netanyahu, so my guess is that some Israeli peacenik organization is leading the backchannel negotiations with the intent to manipulate the Israeli government, not to appease it, about what strings would be attached to the deal.

Maybe I'm being a bit too sensitive after reading the Gidi Grinstein book I reviewed on Sunday and how a backchannel was used by the Israeli Left, the US and Palestinians to collude to bring down Netanyahu in his first term, but the impression I am getting is that a purpose of these negotiations may include finding a way to make the current coalition government fall, something that would being a sigh of relief to the Americans, the Palestinians and not a small number of Israelis. 

Holding these meetings in Saudi Arabia is a convenient way to exclude Israeli officials who cannot officially travel to the kingdom. But all other negotiations between Israel and its erstwhile peace partners took place in neutral territory - Europe or the US. 

Excluding Israel from these talks seems to be a way to marginalize the Jewish state and put it on its back foot when the offer is revealed - a deal that, it appears, will be all but imposed on Israel rather than one that Israel has a say in. If Israel refuses an offer backed by the US, Saudis and tacitly Palestinians it will look like an intransigent player who only pretends to want peace. If Israel accepts a bad deal, the government probably will fall. 

It feels like deja vu.,

Most Israelis and Zionists would love to see Saudi normalization, myself included. Every new revelation makes me wonder if the price would be too high - especially when the major benefits of peace are already effectively there



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Friday, September 01, 2023

The fallout in Libya of the discovery that Israeli and Libyan officials have been meeting secretly for years, and those officials denials, has prompted many other Libyans to pledge that they will never, ever, ever do anything that could be considered the slightest bit of normalization with Israel.

For example, the mayors of Libyan towns felt it was necessary to issue a statement that they "expressed their complete rejection of establishing any relationship of any kind with the criminal Zionist entity."

But perhaps the strangest announcement of people trying to out-Arab the Palestinians - who do indeed speak to Israeli officials - comes from the Libyan Ministry of Oil and Gas, which said 
The Ministry of Oil and Gas announces its rejection of state officials calling joining organizations or forums attended by the Zionist entity or in which it is a member, especially in areas related to the oil and gas sector.
I don't know how many international energy organizations Israel is a member of, but Israel certainly has been a member of the World Petroleum Council for decades - and so is Libya, and Iran,. 


Is it really going to quit those organizations now? A Libyan boycott of these, and probably many more, international organizations that include Israel would only hurt Libya - it wouldn't affect Israel at all.

Moreover, Israel and Libya have both been members of these organizations for quite a while, and Libya never said a word against it - even though Libya's official laws rejecting normalization of Israel have been in force since 1957.

Just like the announcement of the mayors, this is all posturing. Libya was shamed by the foreign minister's meeting with her Israeli counterpart, and now they are scrambling to regain their "honor." Honor has nothing to do with reality - public declarations of solidarity with Palestinians mean much more than privately insulting them, or privately accpeting Israel's membership in these international organizations. 

Put it this way - none of Israel's enemies have quit the UN yet despite Israel being a member.





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Monday, August 28, 2023



The US negotiations with Saudi Arabia over recognizing Israel looks more and more like using Israel as a pawn for a US-Saudi deal than anything that will have huge benefits for Israel.

The Saudis want from Washington a NATO-style defense pact and a civilian nuclear program. The Saudis want from Israel access to intelligence (which they probably already have indirectly), access to Israeli technology and investment opportunities there. 

The US would get more leverage over the Saudis vis a vis their growing relationship with China, and for them not to abandon the US dollar as their currency. The US would prefer the Saudis be in their orbit than with BRICS (although normalization with Israel has not stopped the UAE from joining BRICS.) The Saudis would also give the US more military options in case of a war with Iran erupting.

While Israel would reap some benefits from normalization with Saudi Arabia, I don't think it adds up to much. 


* There is already a cold peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and it is unlikely to get that much warmer with an agreement. The Saudis are not and are unlikely to become a military enemy of Israel. 

* Israel can already sell things to the Saudis via the UAE if they want the products, with the exception of weapons and similar items. I'm sure that this trade already started a while ago. 

* Saudi Arabia may be modernizing but it is still one of the most repressive, anti-human rights regimes on Earth. Anything bad they do will be used as ammunition against Israel.

*  It isn't as if the Saudis would start suddenly voting against anti-Israel resolutions at the UN and dragging the rest of the Arab world with them.

* Only a small percentage of Saudis would visit Israel, and that would almost all be to Al Aqsa. 

* Speaking of, the Saudis almost certainly want influence over the Temple Mount to add to their control of the top two Sunni Islamic holy sites. This could adversely affect Israel's relations with Jordan. 

* If Iran started a war in the region that threatened the Saudis, Israel would help them out regardless. Covertly, but certainly. 

* Joint projects and investments would be nice, but they would benefit the Saudis more than the Israelis.

The Abraham Accords was a game-changer. It broke the united Arab front against Israel. It gave Israel an economic and political foothold in the Gulf, bolstered by Bahrain. 

What more would a Saudi deal give to Israel? I don't see huge advantages for Israel, especially when the US is dangling the Saudis as a means to restrict Israeli actions. 

Not that there are no advantages t Israel at all - of course there are. It would be very nice if the Israeli and Saudi air force could cooperate and practice together, and engage in war games against an Iranian threat. Normalization would solidify the idea that there is no going back in the Arab world to the days when Israel was a pariah. Open trade would benefit both parties. But these are nice-to-haves, not must-haves. 

The US is taking it for granted that the Israelis are salivating over a deal. President Herzog said to Congress that Israel prays for such a deal. But I simply don't see what Israel would get from it that they aren't getting now, or wouldn't get in case of an emergency.

Both the Saudis and the Americans are negotiating with the idea that Israel needs no prodding to join any deal. Israel needs to signal that it expects some additional concrete benefits, from both Washington and Riyadh, to join in. Because as of now, it looks like the Americans and Saudis would gain more from such a deal than Israel would. 





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Tuesday, August 15, 2023



Arabic media are publishing a supposed list of four Saudi demands in order for the kingdom to start negotiations to recognize Israel.

Private sources reported that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia desires strong political, economic, security and social relations with Israel that include all kinds of cooperation with friendly countries and the establishment of an unprecedented partnership in all fields.

For this, the Kingdom needs security and political guarantees before starting serious negotiations on the form of the relationship. Therefore, the Saudi National Security Council set four conditions for starting real negotiations under the auspices of the United States of America, which are:

1- The United States agrees to sell the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 50 F-35 aircraft, without banning any of the types of advanced capabilities it has, like Israel.

2- The United States of America agrees to complete the sale and construction of 5 nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes.

3- Israel's agreement to subject its nuclear reactors to be under the supervision of the Atomic Energy Commission, and agreement of a Middle East region free of nuclear weapons.

4- Israel should stop weakening the Palestinian National Authority and return to the negotiating table in order to achieve peace and stability in the region.

The only places these were published were Palestinian media, so the list is a little suspect.

Beyond that, these are pre-conditions before any negotiations, and from that perspective they seem absurd - the US giving advanced weapons in exchange for talks that could go nowhere? Israel being forced to make major concessions before any negotiations even start?

And one more thing: The Saudi National Security Council was dissolved in 2015.

This looks like a Palestinian psy-ops attempt to pressure the Saudis to demand more concessions from Israel on the Palestinian issue, as there is a real (and founded) fear among Palestinians that they will be only an incidental part of any normalization plan. 






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Or order from your favorite bookseller, using ISBN 9798985708424. 

Read all about it here!

 

 

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