People keep talking about the necessity of a plan for governing Gaza, and none of the plans suggested have the slightest chance of being successful.
Showing posts with label Emirate of Palestine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Emirate of Palestine. Show all posts
Monday, February 26, 2024
- Monday, February 26, 2024
- Elder of Ziyon
- Emirate of Palestine, UAE
People keep talking about the necessity of a plan for governing Gaza, and none of the plans suggested have the slightest chance of being successful.
The Palestinian Authority cannot govern themselves, let alone Gaza. Israel has tried empowering local clans as alternate rulers for years and it has never worked out because there are too many threats from armed Islamists and no one wants to look like a puppet to Israel.
I have suggested that the world give up on an independent Palestinian run Gaza for the foreseeable future and instead turn Gaza into "The Emirate of Palestine" controlled by the UAE.
* Only a Gulf country has the resources to rebuild Gaza and realize its dream of becoming a Singapore.
* Israel is at peace with the UAE and would eagerly cooperate with it in facilitating the new emirate.
* The problem of territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza is no longer an issue.
* Gazans would become UAE citizens, get passports, and could freely move to other emirates if they want. If they prefer to hold on to the dream of an independent Palestinian state, they can move to the West Bank.
* For the first time, there would be optimism about Gaza's future that would encourage investment.
* One can foresee joint Israel-UAE economic projects that would employ thousands of Gazans.
* The UAE would not tolerate terror. There would be no rockets, no cross-border raids, no tunnels.
What would the UAE get out of it?
* A port on the Mediterranean
* Access to natural gas and other fossil fuels off the coast
* Overland routes of trucking and shipping tying the Gulf to the Mediterranean, facilitating imports and exports
* An airport would bring an air bridge as well
* Increased influence in the region, which the UAE desires
* Gaza could become a tourist destination and a meeting hub between European and Arab political and business leaders
Additionally, this is a practical reward for the Abraham Accords, which would encourage other Arab states to make peace with Israel. Egypt would work with the UAE to develop the Sinai instead of walling it off from Gaza.
Everyone wins, except those who want to destroy Israel.
There is an additional piece of data that points to the UAE as the best and most responsible partner for running Gaza: They have helped Gazans far more than any other country during this war.
The latest COGAT report says that more truckfuls of aid have come from the UAE than any other country.
The UAE built the largest field hospital in Gaza, with 200 beds.
While other countries are using Gaza as an excuse to bash Israel and consider Gazans to be cannon fodder for screaming Israel is guilty of "genocide." the UAE is one of the few countries that actually appears to care about the welfare of Palestinians as human beings. Who better to be responsible for Gaza's future? And who, outside Israel itself, has more experience in building a thriving economy out of nothing?
It would not be easy, but this plan is the only one anyone has suggested that has a chance of a permanent success. Let it be debated and compared with the other plans that the supposed "experts" are advocating where a corrupt Palestinian leadership controls Gaza or a weak Palestinian leadership must be propped up by Israel.
Start by describing the plan to actual Gazans and ask whether they like the idea.
Friday, January 19, 2024
- Friday, January 19, 2024
- Elder of Ziyon
- Emirate of Palestine
There are lots of articles about "the day after" in Gaza.
Most of them envision some sort of Palestinian self-rule. The US, Saudi Arabia and others are pushing a "revitalized" Palestinian Authority.
This is a recipe for disaster. Palestinians overwhelmingly support Hamas and destroying Israel, in survey after survey. If there are elections, the terror supporters will win handily, just as they did in the last elections.
No one has come up with a better plan than my suggestion two months ago to turn Gaza into an emirate of the UAE.
There is one country that could turn Gaza into a wonderful place: the UAE. Gaza should become the fifth United Arab Emirate.The UAE is at peace with Israel. it could pour massive amounts of money into rebuilding Gaza into a paradise. It wouldn't allow Islamists to gain a toehold.Gazans would suddenly live in a place that has a future. The UAE and Israel could work on joint business ventures and economic zones to help employment and bring Gaza up to modern standards. One could imagine luxury hotels and high tech skyscrapers being built on the shores of the Mediterranean.Gazans would become citizens of an Arab country and could still call themselves Palestinians. The emirate itself could be called "the Emirate of Palestine." Why not? And Gaza citizens of the UAE could move to the other emirates to seek other opportunities if they prefer, with Emirati entrepreneurs moving to Gaza to take advantage of a blank slate. Which is not dissimilar to how they built the UAE to begin with.Why would the UAE be interested? Well, a port on the Mediterranean is a pretty big carrot. Shipping lanes from and to Europe would be a huge economic boost. Working with Israel, the proposed train line from the Gulf to Israel could be extended a bit to Gaza to tie the Gulf countries closer to the sea as well.Beyond that, there are some significant gas deposits off the coast of Gaza. No one wants to risk drilling there now, but the UAE would solve that problem.Also, Palestinians are among the best educated Arabs. There is a competent workforce already there.Moreover, Gaza could become a money-making tourism destination. Wealthy Europeans could rub shoulders with wealthy Arabs and make deals much closer to home.Gazans would have huge opportunities to work and thrive. There would be no more "refugees" in Gaza. UNRWA would be gone.Egypt would be thrilled to have such a neighbor.The entire Sinai could benefit from increased trade.
Since then, my suggestion makes even more sense.
Right now, there is competition between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE for influence over the Levant. Talal Mohammad writes in Foreign Policy:
Israel and the United States—its most important ally—have insisted that [Hamas] can have no role in Gaza’s future administration. Instead, both have proposed the establishment of a multinational force that would include a role for Arab states—including those in the Persian Gulf. This means that Gaza could become a hot spot for geopolitical rivalries between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Qatari influence is disastrous. They support Hamas both with direct aid and through Al Jazeera, by far the most influential source of news in the Middle East. They cannot have a role in the future of Gaza.
Saudi Arabia might want more influence, but without peace with Israel, it is highly limited in what it can do.
The UAE is the solution.
Some people responded to my idea by saying the UAE wouldn't be interested, but as the FP article notes:
The UAE, which balances relations between major powers such as Russia and the United States, has expansionist ambitions. In addition to Yemen and Sudan, Abu Dhabi also backs proxies in conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Libya.
This would be a peace dividend for the UAE - a reward for the Abraham Accords. If anything, this benefit for the UAE would pressure Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel to have its own place at the table.
The article floats the idea of Mohammed Dahlan, the former Gaza Fatah strongman who now lives in Abu Dhabi, taking a role in rebuilding Gaza . I am not sure he is the best choice - most Palestinians can't stand him. But any UAE-approved leader of the "Emirate of Palestine" would be ruthless in suppressing the Islamists in Gaza, and that ruthlessness is what is needed for any plan to work. But they would also bring in billions to rebuild Gaza into a Singapore.
There is a lot of money in the Gulf to rebuild Gaza - but no one wants to spend a dime if there is a chance that Israel will destroy the new buildings in a few years, virtually a guarantee if Hamas or a successor has a role there. But Israel would fully support the UAE's ambitions for Gaza. It will never attack an ally.
A Gaza emirate instantly converts Gaza from an enemy to a friend. Isn't that what everyone dreams of? Besides those who want to destroy Israel, that is.
Moreover, the UAE has been negotiating with an Israeli firm to build a "land bridge" of trucks from the Port of Dubai to Israeli ports to bypass the Red Sea and the Houthis for shipping to Europe. If the UAE were to build a port in Gaza, it could be on both ends of the shipping traffic.
The UAE is uniquely positioned to turn the Gaza lemons into lemonade. This is the real reward for the Abraham Accords - a port on the Mediterranean, access to gas reserves off Gaza, and the opportunity to solve the Gaza quagmire not just for a few years but forever.
It is easy to poke holes in any idea, especially one as out of the box as this one. The political obstacles are formidable. But can anyone suggest anything that is better? Or one that could be expected to last for decades?
This plan is a win for Israel, a win for the UAE, a win for Gazans, a win for Egypt, and a win for the West that wants to solve the Middle East crisis. It is a real solution, and a permanent one.
Monday, November 06, 2023
- Monday, November 06, 2023
- Elder of Ziyon
- Emirate of Palestine
There have been a number of articles about how to fill the vacuum that ill be left in Gaza after Israel destroys Hamas. It is a significant question: no one wants another Islamist group to take over.
The US is pushing for the Palestinian Authority to reassert control, but the PA is trying to extort a state out of it, saying it doesn't want to gain power based on Israeli actions.
But the PA is a corrupt, weak entity. Nobody likes them, least of all its citizens. It lost Gaza once and it would likely lose it again.
Egypt doesn't want Gaza. Egyptians hate everything about it. After all, it was Egypt that turned it into a virtual prison for Palestinian refugees after the 1948 war.
Israel doesn't want Gaza back. It doesn't want to govern two million hostile Arabs, not to mention take over day to day governance. Imagine the suicide bombings at every governmental office. And, of course, it would be "occupation."
So who should run Gaza the day after Hamas is eradicated?
When Israel left Gaza in 2005, optimists thought it could become a new Singapore. Palestinian incompetence and Hamas ended that fantasy. Hate for Israel was far more important than helping Palestinians live their lives.
But there is one country that could turn Gaza into a wonderful place: the UAE. Gaza should become the fifth United Arab Emirate.
The UAE is at peace with Israel. it could pour massive amounts of money into rebuilding Gaza into a paradise. It wouldn't allow Islamists to gain a toehold.
Gazans would suddenly live in a place that has a future. The UAE and Israel could work on joint business ventures and economic zones to help employment and bring Gaza up to modern standards. One could imagine luxury hotels and high tech skyscrapers being built on the shores of the Mediterranean.
Gazans would become citizens of an Arab country and could still call themselves Palestinians. The emirate itself could be called "the Emirate of Palestine." Why not? And Gaza citizens of the UAE could move to the other emirates to seek other opportunities if they prefer.
Why would the UAE be interested? Well, a port on the Mediterranean is a pretty big carrot. Shipping lanes from and to Europe would be a huge economic boost. Working with Israel, the proposed train line from the Gulf to Israel could be extended a bit to Gaza to tie the Gulf countries closer to the sea as well.
(UPDATE): Beyond that, there are some significant gas deposits off the coast of Gaza. No one wants to risk drilling there now, but the UAE would solve that problem.
Also, Palestinians are among the best educated Arabs. There is a competent workforce already there.
Moreover, Gaza could become a money-making tourism destination. Wealthy Europeans could rub shoulders with wealthy Arabs and make deals.
Gazans would have huge opportunities to work and thrive. There would be no more "refugees."
Egypt would be thrilled to have such a neighbor.The entire Sinai could benefit from increased trade.
This idea is a win for literally everyone - except those people whose entire lives are dedicated to destroying Israel.
People who truly want peace in the region would love to see this idea work. People who only want to get rid of Israel would hate this idea.
But can anyone think of any better future for Gaza than this?
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