Friday, August 12, 2022

08/12 Links Pt1: Middle East peace will come despite US policy; Salman Rushdie Attacked on Stage at Event in New York; A revived deal will not stop Iran from becoming nuclear

From Ian:

Mark Regev: Middle East peace will come despite US policy
PRESIDENT Barack Obama entered office in 2009 with aspirations to aggressively move forward on the Israeli-Palestinian track. But despite the efforts of his two secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, no breakthrough was achieved. On the contrary, Obama left the White House after eight years with the negotiations collapsed and any expectation for an early resumption seemingly illusory.

Notwithstanding this failure, Obama inadvertently made an immeasurable contribution to peace. His responses to the Arab Spring, to the Syrian civil war, and to nuclear diplomacy with Iran, all negatively impacted the confidence of America’s traditional Arab allies in the US commitment to them.

Moreover, the repeated declarations of a “pivot to Asia” implied the de-prioritization of the Middle East – this when pro-Western Arab states had for decades based their national security on American protection. Feeling less certain of Washington’s support in a crisis, Arab states sought new security partners – the Jewish state becoming the unintended beneficiary.

After his predecessor unwittingly laid the foundations, president Donald Trump embraced the opportunity. His active engagement produced the 2020 Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan, and the normalization of ties with Morocco. This while Trump’s much-hyped plan for Israeli-Palestinian peace remained stillborn, having been adamantly rejected by Ramallah.

Last month, when Biden left the region for home, it remained unclear as to whether the current US president will be making any meaningful contribution to Middle East peace – either by design or by folly.
MEMRI: Hamas Member: We Should Consider A Three- To Five-Year 'Hudna' (Truce) Between Israel And The Resistance In Gaza
In an article published August 10, 2022 in the Palestinian Al-Quds daily, Hamas member Ahmad Yousuf, a former advisor to Hamas political bureau head Isma'il Haniyeh, called for an internationally sponsored three- to five-year hudna (truce) between Israel and the Gaza resistance factions.[1]

Yousuf stated that because Gaza is currently weak and besieged, the Palestinian resistance should recognize its diplomatic failures in the Arab and international arena and consider the option of a hudna instead of the recurring ceasefires after conflicts in which Israel always has the upper hand.

Such a hudna, he wrote, would give the Palestinians a chance to catch their breath, and at the same time allow the resistance to reexamine its military and diplomatic options and come up with a policy that is acceptable to the general Palestinian public. He also suggested that the one-state option be examined, which he said could give the moral high ground to the Palestinian people's struggle and gain Western support for their cause.

Defining the recent Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)-Israel conflict as a political stratagem hatched by Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Ganz as part of their election campaign, he said that the PIJ had been dragged into a battle in which Israel set the rules of the clash and inflicted a decisive blow on the PIJ.

Below are excerpts from Yousuf's article.
"There is nothing to prevent Israelis from firing on Palestinians whenever and however they wish. It is already customary, during election campaign seasons [in Israel], to provoke the Palestinians in order to drag them into a military conflict. [These conflicts are] political investments by those in Israel's ruling circles and decision-making [centers]. Furthermore, the [candidates'] rivalry in spouting extreme slogans and [making] security threats eventually reaches the battlefield, and serves as a standard for a particular candidate's ability to maintain security – an issue that is generally a decisive factor [in the choice] between the most important contenders on the right and the extreme right for the governmental and political leadership in Israel...

"If we look at the most recent military conflict, between the Israeli occupation army and the Islamic Jihad movement [PIJ] in the Gaza Strip – in an arena set up by [Yair] Lapid and [Benny] Ganz ­– we clearly see that the [pre-conflict] tension emanated from [Israel's] fraud and provocation against the PIJ through its arrest and direct humiliation of [West Bank PIJ official] Sheikh Bassam Al-Saadi. This was a stratagem hatched by those who lust after the premiership in the November elections – that is, Yair [Lapid] and [Benny] Ganz...

"We cannot ignore the fact that Israel landed a painful blow against the PIJ and [its military wing] the Al-Quds Brigades by striking the movement's two most important military figures in the Gaza Strip – Tayseer Al-Jabari and Khaled Mansour – and other officials... This was in addition to the destruction of many military targets – that is, PIJ outposts and property.
"Iran Pushing the Violence from Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Warns"
Iran is driving the escalation of violence against Israel from the Gaza Strip, Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned, saying that the Islamic Jihad terror organization “has an open tab in Iran.”

Gantz hosted his Cypriot counterpart Minister of Defense Charalambos Petrides on Thursday in Tel Aviv and the two discussed “common challenges and reflected on the implications” of the IDF’s Operation Breaking Dawn against the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip over the weekend.

During a press conference held together with Petrides, Gantz said that “while the world watched ‘another escalation between Israel and Gaza,’ I stopped to emphasize: the Iranian Ayatollahs are involved in this front. Islamic Jihad in Gaza is a violent Iranian proxy. Their leadership visits Iran and meets Iranian leaders frequently.”

Islamic Jihad head Ziyad al-Nakhalah was in Tehran over the weekend, as the members of his terror organization launched about 1,100 rockets into Israeli cities and towns, including toward Tel Aviv and the Jerusalem area, over the course of 55 hours.

The Islamic Jihad “has an open tab in Iran. Iran provides Islamic Jihad in Gaza with tens of millions of dollars per year. Iran, via the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards], transfers know-how and attempts to smuggle materials to Gaza, which are then used to build weapons aimed at civilians,” Gantz underscored.

The Islamic Jihad enjoys extensive material backing from Iran in their arming efforts, which has provided millions of dollars in funding, as well as training and weapons. Israeli intelligence sources are quoted as saying that Islamic Jihad has an annual budget of $70 million, most of which is provided by Iran in payments made via money changers and supposed welfare organizations.


Author Salman Rushdie Attacked on Stage at Event in New York
Salman Rushdie, the Indian-born novelist who was ordered killed by Iran in 1989 because of his writing, was attacked on stage at an event in New York and suffered an apparent stab wound to the neck, according to New York State Police and an eyewitness.

A man rushed to the stage at the Chautauqua Institution in western New York state and attacked Rushdie as he was being introduced, an eye witness said. A State Trooper present at the event took the attacker into custody, police said.

Rushdie was taken by helicopter to a hospital but his condition was not yet known, police said

“We are dealing with an emergency situation,” a Chautauqua Institution spokesperson said when contacted by Reuters.

Rushdie fell to the floor when the man attacked him, and was then surrounded by a small group of people who held up his legs, seemingly to send more blood to his upper body, as the attacker was restrained, according to a witness attending the lecture who asked not to be named.

Rushdie, who was born into an Indian Muslim family, has faced death threats for his fourth novel, “The Satanic Verses,” which some Muslims said contained blasphemous passages. The novel was banned in many countries with large Muslim populations upon its 1988 publication.

A year later, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, then Iran’s supreme leader, pronounced a fatwa, or religious edict, calling upon Muslims to kill the novelist for blasphemy.

Rushdie went into hiding for many years. Iranian organizations have raised a bounty worth millions of dollars for Rushdie’s murder.


Saudi social-media influencer: ‘Hope our nation will sign a peace treaty with Israel’
Saudi social-media influencer Mohammed Saud, who recently made both waves and friends by playing Israel’s national anthem “Hatikvah” on the oud, tells JNS that “Saudi Arabian citizens are starting to learn much more about the Jewish people around the world.”

“My friends know my opinions, but not all share them. That is OK,” he says. “However, as a result of rabbis visiting Saudi Arabia, the population is beginning to learn more about politics and the relationship with Jews worldwide.”

He adds that “slowly, the country is becoming more open to different viewpoints, and people are starting to accept the fact that Jews are not our enemies.”

The 33-year-old unmarried man says that Saudis want the Palestinian issue to be resolved, but they also think Israel and Saudi Arabia will one day live peacefully: “If you ask people on the street if they want peace, most of them will tell you that the Palestinian issue needs to be resolved, so some of my friends agree with me, and some do not, which is OK.”

Saud often tweets in Hebrew and is followed by some Israeli public figures, such as Yair Netanyahu, the son of Likud Party head and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu; Knesset member Amichai Chikli; and Channel 14 TV host Yinon Magal. Subscribe to The JNS Daily Syndicate by email and never miss our top stories

Asked about how Saudis react to his pro-Israel positions, he responds: “To be honest, I sometimes receive very hurtful comments, but I do not think they come from real Saudis; instead, I think they come from some people from other countries.”

And if the complaints influence him, he replies, “I do not really care if Saudis criticize me; there may be some, but I do not really care about that.”
Amnesty International ignores reality to manufacture Ukrainian war crimes
Amnesty International released a report last week insinuating that the Ukrainian military is committing war crimes by operating near civilian infrastructure. The report was widely condemned by human rights activists, journalists and international law experts for being misleading, inaccurate and sloppily argued. Speaking as someone who has spent over two months reporting from Ukraine, I found the report appalling.

Amnesty International’s central claim is that the Ukrainian army is breaking international humanitarian law by operating in populated areas and basing itself in civilian buildings, thereby turning civilian objects into military targets and causing civilian deaths. The report alleges that, between April and May, Amnesty International’s investigators found evidence of this behaviour in 19 towns and villages in the Donbas, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions.

Though the report does not say so outright, it heavily implies that Ukraine is using the civilian population as human shields. It recommends that the Ukrainian military relocate from populated areas to alternatives such as “military bases” and “densely wooded areas.”

These recommendations are breathtakingly unrealistic. Russia is trying to capture Ukraine’s population centres, which necessitates that Ukraine station soldiers in these areas to protect them. According to Amnesty International, Ukraine should abandon its cities and towns and simply trust that Russia will not sweep in and occupy them.

What sane person would not see a problem with this — especially considering the ample reports (i.e. from Bucha and Kherson) of Russian occupiers arbitrarily detaining, torturing and executing Ukrainian civilians?

In some instances, Amnesty International’s recommendations are simply impossible to implement. In Kharkiv, the Russians spent months laying siege from the city’s outskirts, even occupying its northernmost neighbourhoods. There was no other position for Ukrainians to safely defend themselves other than from within the city.

In addition to victim-blaming, Amnesty International’s report used sketchy research methodologies and its investigators seem to have misrepresented on-the-ground conditions.


Israel's military must be ruthless in Gaza, West Bank - opinion
Israel has been forced into five rounds of warfare against enemies in the Gaza Strip since Hamas overthrew the Palestinian Authority and conquered Gaza in 2007. The latest “round” of warfare was “Operation Breaking Dawn,” the short round fought this past weekend. What should be Israel’s strategic takeaway from this?

The answer is this: Israel must be willing to continually degrade enemy military capabilities, operation after operation, day after day, in a campaign of unremitting attrition meant to crush the radical Islamic armies seeking to set-up shop permanently on Israel’s borders.

This means much more than “mowing the grass,” intermittent military operations meant to weed enemy fields that Israel has engaged in until now. It means much more than occasional bombings meant to temporarily deter the enemy and bring periods of quiet to residents in Israel’s outlying areas.

It means a regular “war between wars” against Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other enemy armies. It means nightly raids on jihadist weapons storehouses, factories and training camps. It means no respite between Operation Breaking Dawn and the next operation.

After all, this is the way Israel operates against jihadist and other terrorist enemies in Judea and Samaria, in Syria and in Iraq. There is no respite between one operation and the next.

It is only courtesy of nightly IDF raids on jihadist cells in Jenin, Nablus and Hebron that Israelis and Palestinians alike live a daily life of relative calm. Otherwise, the West Bank would become Gaza.
'As IDF fought terrorism in Gaza, we waged battle on disinformation'
On the evening of the third day of Operation Breaking Dawn, an extensive Israeli counterterrorism campaign against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, reports of a fatal attack on the refugee camp of Jabalia began to appear on Palestinian social media, soon followed by gruesome pictures of the incident, including those of the bodies of five children allegedly killed in the camp.

"We immediately understood that there was an emergency here that could potentially become a publicity disaster, which would have an impact on the course of the operation and a political impact," said Lior Haiat, head of the National Public Diplomacy Directorate at the Prime Minister Office.

"We quickly contacted IDF Spokesperson [Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis], the Shin Bet security agency, and Southern Command officials to understand exactly what happened [in the camp], and created a message that consisted of two parts: clarifying the fact that Israel was not responsible for the incident, and presenting evidence that the Islamic Jihad was to blame."

For Haiat, who had just recently been appointed to his role after being the Foreign Ministry spokesman, this was the first major publicity emergency to resolve.

In an interview with Israel Hayom, he described that while the IDF was fighting terrorism in Gaza, his directorate was fighting disinformation, a battle no less crucial.


The Israel Guys: Who is Really Oppressing the People of Gaza?
In today’s program, we analyze the latest round of fighting between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Israel precisely targeted high profile terrorists inside Gaza, eliminating them. In response, Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired more than 1,000 rockets into Israel over the course of two days, hitting one Israeli home.

Unfortunately, one of the missiles fired from Gaza fell short, killing four Palestinian Arab children. Global media rushed to blame Israel for their deaths, even though there is video footage of the rocket falling inside of Gaza.


IDF aborts attack on Islamic Jihad outpost due to little girl
The IDF released footage Friday evening showing the Israeli forces delay a planned strike on an outpost belonging to the Islamic Jihad in Gaza due to the presence of a young Palestinian girl.

In the footage taken during Operation Breaking Dawn, the Israeli military can be seen tracking the girl to ensure she is a safe distance away before conducting the strike on the post.

The strike occurred last Friday, shortly following the announcement of the Gaza operation, and was meant as an attempt to draw first blood in the battle against Islamic Jihad.

Maj. 'B,' a commander in the Armored Corps' 7th Armored Brigade who took part in the attack, said the forces acted "ethically, professionally and with precision."

"As we received approval to fire at the outpost, the tank crew identified a child along with a man in the vicinity of the strike target," Maj. 'B' recalled. "Due to the presence of civilians, the tank commander immediately called to halt fire. We stood by until the two were no longer in the area."

"Following several minutes, the crew successfully carried out the attack," he added.


Top official ousted as Palestinian succession battle heats up
Tawfik Tirawi, a former head of the Palestinian Authority General Intelligence Service, has been removed from his job as chairman of the board of trustees of Al-Istiqlal University in the latest sign of mounting tensions among the top brass of the Palestinian leadership.

Tirawi, a senior member of the ruling Fatah faction’s Central Committee, was dismissed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas days after he reportedly bad-mouthed PLO Secretary-General Hussein al-Sheikh in an audiotape leaked to social media platforms.

The 61-year-old Sheikh is seen by many Palestinians as a leading candidate to succeed Abbas. Tirawi, too, is seen by his supporters as a suitable candidate to step into Abbas’s shoes.

Abbas, 87, also ordered the withdrawal of the security guards stationed outside Tirawi’s residence for his protection, Palestinian sources said.

This is a measure that the PA leadership often takes in order to punish top Palestinian officials who are critical of Abbas and other PA leaders. It is also meant to humiliate Abbas’s opponents by making them appear less important than they are.

Tirawi, 73, said that he did not know why the security detail was withdrawn. He said he heard about the decision to boot him out from the media.

The university he headed and helped found is the first academic institution to offer security and military science studies.
"Report: Israel Rejected Lebanon’s Proposal on Mediterranean Natural Gas Field"
The independent online news website Elnashra reported on Friday, citing senior Lebanese government sources that the recent visit of Amos Hochstein, the American mediator for the demarcation of the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon is shrouded in a “negative atmosphere.” According to the report, Hochstein spent 3 days in Tel Aviv to discuss the demarcation but faced a decline in Israeli Interest due to the events in Gaza.

The Lebanese officials told Elnashra about “negative news about the issue of border demarcation in Hochstein’s upcoming visit to Beirut, especially since the Israelis have rejected the Lebanese proposal in Thursday’s session, which included Hochstein and the Israeli negotiating delegation.”

It is noteworthy that Lebanese President Michel Aoun informed Hochstein during the last Beirut visit of Lebanon’s intent to retain all the oil fields located within what it sees as its territorial water, in addition to the Qana oil field, and demands an international guarantee for drilling and production.

The Lebanese proposal also confirms that Israel will not participate in working the fields, and there is no talk of any “zigzag line.” This was a reference to Hochstein’s proposal to Lebanon in March on the demarcation starting from Line 23, which was drawn in a zigzag. Line 23 cuts very far to the south and essentially places the Karish dig inside Lebanese territorial water. Needless to say, Israel won’t hear about it, straight or zigzag.
Biden Administration Stonewalls Inspector General on Afghanistan on Terror Cash
In June, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s office (SIGAR), dispatched letters to Secretary of State Blinken and Samantha Power complaining that the State Department and USAID were stonewalling its investigation of waste, corruption and terror cash.

"Two SIGAR audits are also being hindered by a lack of cooperation from State and USAID. The first evaluates your agencies’ compliance with the laws and regulations prohibiting transfers of funds to members of the Taliban and the Haqqani Network," the letter to Power complained.

The Haqqani Network, which is allied with Al Qaeda, gained control of Kabul security and played a key role in preventing Americans from being evacuated and in the seizure of American military equipment left behind, even as the Biden administration described the Islamic terrorists responsible for the murder of Americans as “partners”. Despite claiming to no longer have ties to Al Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's leader, was recently taken out at a Haqqani Network safe house. And, afterward, Haqqani members quickly evacuated Zawahiri's family.

Any funding going to the Taliban, the Haqqanis and Al Qaeda must be investigated.

In a recent interview, Special Inspector General John Sopko noted that his office was aware of the, "close to $800 million that we’ve spent in Afghanistan since the collapse of the government last August".

“I guess people don’t realize that,” he told reporters. “And I think people should realize that."

Samantha Power's policy of relying more heavily on local aid groups has made it that much more difficult to track where USAID’s money goes. And may be one reason that USAID has been stonewalling the Afghanistan watchdog.

Instead of turning over the information, Blinken and Power's people have lawyered up.
JPost Editorial: A revived deal will not stop Iran from becoming nuclear
Have just postponed the inevitable of a nuclear Iran?
The deal in 2015 appeared to merely postpone the inevitable. It is now 2022 and any deal that might be signed now would seem to just kick the can down the road in terms of eventually having to confront a nuclear Iran.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and tensions between the US and China have complicated an already difficult situation.

The US prefers not to have to confront Iran at the same time, or deal with a new Iran-Israel crisis. The recent battles in Gaza against Palestinian Islamic Jihad seem to have been aimed at preempting the Iranian proxy’s ability to threaten Israel.

Nevertheless, that brief conflict shows that even the smallest of Iran’s proxies is a threat. What about the bigger threat of Hezbollah and groups like the Houthis in Yemen or Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Iran’s entrenchment in Syria?

Iran has openly bragged about how it is pushing the US out of the region and how it can threaten Israel from a number of angles and fronts. The nuclear front is just one of those problems. The deal being discussed today must take into account Iran’s threats to the region and Israel.
Gabriel Noronha: Why is the Biden administration rolling out the red carpet for Russia's nuclear industry?
In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin greeted Alexei Likhachev, the director general and CEO of Russia’s state-owned nuclear enterprise Rosatom. Putin took the opportunity to congratulate Likhachev, whom Putin had personally appointed to the job nearly six years ago, on accomplishing "a great deal of work."

Rosatom’s commercial exploits have indeed been significant. In the company’s relatively short 15-year history, Rosatom had grown to employ more than 275,000 people and brought in $16 billion of revenue in 2020. The corporation boasts on its website of having the largest foreign portfolio of any nuclear company, with 35 nuclear power units under development in 12 different countries.

But Rosatom’s biggest coup has been its hostile takeover of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. In the early days of March, invading Russian forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, located in southeastern Ukraine. A week later, Russian officials gathered the plant’s management and told them the plant now belonged to Rosatom. Hundreds of Russian soldiers now corral Ukrainian nuclear scientists, while dozens of Rosatom officials have spent the past five months attempting to transform the station from powering the Ukrainian grid to Russian lines instead. In the first month of the war, Rosatom also took control of the Chernobyl nuclear site, where they looted and destroyed $135 million worth of computers, radiation dosimeters, and safety equipment from the fragile area.

As Russian forces have faced escalating attacks from Western artillery systems, they have been using the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as cover to launch rocket attacks against Ukrainian forces. On Aug. 8, the Russian military commander in charge of forces at Zaporizhzhia announced that they had set charges to the nuclear power facilities and declared "the plant will either be Russia’s or no one's." The unfolding disaster prompted the director general of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, to remark on Aug. 3 that "every principle of nuclear safety has been violated" and that the situation is "out of control." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for the international community to impose sanctions on Rosatom.

However, instead of sanctioning Rosatom, the Biden administration appears to be rolling out the red carpet.
Expert: Iran works on mobilizing ‘extreme left’ in Latin America to expand influence network
Iran has been targeting local Muslims, potential converts and leftist students as part of its influence operations in Latin America, said an expert during an Aug. 4 webinar.

The event, titled “The IRGC’s Expanding Presence in Latin America,” was organized by the Endowment for Middle East Truth and featured Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior fellow Emanuele Ottolenghi, who studies the Arab-Israeli conflict, Hezbollah’s Latin America-based threat networks and Iran’s sanction-evasion strategies.

The lecture focused on Iran’s influence networks the country has used to infiltrate government advisory boards, local Muslim populations and indigenous movements.

According to Ottolenghi, Iran has used these networks to its advantage in achieving its strategic interests, including evading sanctions and undermining U.S. influence in the region.

He said its influence operations extend beyond outreach to Shia Muslims and potential converts in Latin America to “disenfranchised” groups such as indigenous movements, the “extreme left” and friendly regimes in countries like Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia.

Tehran builds this network through its regional soft power programs, such as scholarships, paid tours, publishing houses, cultural programs and the training of local clerics, said Ottolenghi.

At the center of such operations is the 15-year-old Al-Mustafa International University in Qom province, Iran, which serves as the “principal center for ideological indoctrination of foreign pupils, including converts,” he said.

Al-Mustafa, he said, functions with the mission of recruiting agents for Iran and spreading Iran’s “revolutionary doctrine” under the direct supervision of the Office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei through the Ahlul Bayt World Assembly.


Belgium's Prisoner Swap Treaty with Iran: "A Deal with the Devil"
A Belgian court has temporarily prohibited the Belgian government from exchanging an Iranian diplomat convicted of terrorism for a Belgian citizen being held in Iran on dubious charges of espionage.

The court's ruling represents a potential blow to a controversial new prisoner exchange treaty, which critics say will embolden the Iranian government to step up its practice of taking foreigners hostage to pressure Western countries into making concessions.

The treaty has angered those who argue that it would grant impunity to Iranian agents such as Assadi and have accused the Belgian government of caving in to "odious blackmail." It has been variously described as: "frightening appeasement," "a green light to terrorists," and "very short-sighted," "dangerous," "outrageous," "a sign of weakness," "a stunning mistake," and "a deal with the devil."

"If the Belgian government proceeds with this treaty, Iran's regime will further turn Europe into a roaming ground for its terrorists, targeting not just Iranian dissidents but others also, as Tehran is essentially being told that it won't pay a price." — Ramesh Sepehrrad, Organization of Iranian American Communities, July 5, 2022.

"With the knowledge that prisoner swaps are an easy option, Tehran will now instruct more 'diplomats' and other operatives to engage in terrorism.... Europe must recognize that, ultimately, the only sustainable path to having a stable relationship with Iran is to support the Iranian people's democratic aspirations." — Cameron Khansarinia and Kaveh Shahrooz, Politico, August 1, 2022.




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