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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Elder of Ziyon|
"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Elder of Ziyon|
"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Elder of ZiyonIran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cuts an increasingly lonely figure.Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli airstrikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.One of those sources, who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, described the risk of miscalculation to Iran on issues of defense and internal stability as “extremely dangerous.”
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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Elder of ZiyonIran fired a pair of ballistic missile barrages at Israel early Wednesday, as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “the battle begins” and called to show “no mercy” toward Israelis.The first salvo began to trigger sirens across a large swath of Israel shortly after 12:40 a.m., and included some 15 projectiles. The next barrage of approximately 10 rockets began around 40 minutes later and triggered alerts in central Israeli communities and a number of West Bank settlements.
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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Pour one out for Ben Rhodes. In some ways, The World as It Is is a perfect title for the longtime Obama foreign policy adviser’s memoir, because the illusion of the status quo is all that Rhodes and his fellow travelers could ever stomach in geopolitics. But it was always just that: an illusion. Rhodes never really looked at the world as it is; he simply imagined a facade of post–Cold War stability. The historic Israeli military campaign against Iran that began last week represents another crack in that facade, joining the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, and the Arab Spring.Andrew Fox: Israel’s bold, and dangerous, gamble
After spending the past year and a half knocking out one Iranian proxy after another, Israel has dealt the Islamic Republic a heavy blow in recent days. Not just militarily, but politically too. Israeli forces killed a number of senior officials in Tehran, including the chief of staff of the military, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, and a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. And that was just in the first few hours. I suspect that the occupational hazards associated with employment in the Iranian government will continue to grow with each passing day.
Now that the Islamic Republic is severely weakened, the alarmist foreign policy commentariat is apprising us of the unacceptable risks, raising their well-worn red flags. (Or should I say white flags?) “Escalation!” “Global war!” And the ultimate enemy of the status quo: “regime change!” In the shadow of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, I don’t doubt that Rhodes and some like him had good intentions, but we all know what the road to hell is paved with.
Under President Obama, American officials frequently stared down the nastiest offenders in the international rogues’ gallery and insisted that there was “no military solution.” “No military solution” might sound nice to enlightened ears. Unfortunately, it’s a meaningless slogan. Tellingly, Russian officials repeat it all the time too. The Russian ambassador to the UN used that Ben Rhodes-esque turn of phrase at the Security Council, declaring that “no military solution can be legitimate or viable” in Iran. But Russia does believe there are military solutions to its problems—ask any Ukrainian, Syrian, or Georgian. Yet too many in Washington remain determined to fight armed marauders with flowery words.
The initial takeaway from Rhodes on the well-earned battering that the Iranian regime has received was that “this war will above all harm innocent people for no good reason.”
In the shadow of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, I don’t doubt that Rhodes and some like him had good intentions, but we all know what the road to hell is paved with.
Notice the reliance on the future tense. Status-quo huggers hide behind fear of what might happen instead of confronting the brutal truth of what’s actually happened or is happening. Call it a preference for deadly reality over frightening uncertainty.
So what does ‘success’ look like for each side? For Israel, the best-case scenario in Iran is that a combination of internal unrest, elite fragmentation and sustained sabotage, along with airstrikes, either collapse the regime or force it to retreat from its nuclear programme. The second-best outcome would be a significant delay to Iran’s nuclear programme, perhaps buying a decade or more. The worst-case scenario is that Iran weathers the storm and sprints for a bomb.Michael Oren: Trump: Greatest Peacemaker of the Century
For Iran, ‘success’ means surviving the onslaught while projecting strength, deterring future attacks through visible retaliation and perhaps leveraging the threat of nuclear capability to force concessions. If Tehran can maintain regional influence, continue enrichment and keep Israel guessing, it will consider that a strategic win. The Iranians may accept Trump’s offer of a deal to reconsider their nuclear ambitions, although this would represent a humbling strategic defeat.
There is a darker prospect, too: unending escalation. This cycle could spiral into a painful and damaging campaign of attrition for both sides. Should Iran refuse to compromise, firmly on the back foot and battered from the skies, it is conceivable that Israel will escalate. This could mean striking at the political leadership itself, and forcing the regime change Israel is currently only hinting at.
Which brings us to the crucial question: how does this de-escalate? At present, it does not. Neither side is incentivised to back down. Israel views a nuclear Iran as an existential threat; Iran perceives Israeli aggression as justification for doubling down. The lack of a credible mediator and the erosion of American deterrence highlight just how fragile the situation is.
One path to stability may lie in backchannel diplomacy, particularly if the US and Gulf states can persuade Iran to halt enrichment in exchange for an end to hostilities. However, Israel’s leadership seems to have little faith in diplomacy and no desire for a pause. They believe time is not on their side.
Israel’s absolute penetration of Iran’s security environment and its total air supremacy over its enemy’s capital city should be understood as both a message and a warning. It says: ‘We are inside your defences. We can strike you at will.’ It also reveals a strategic conundrum. Israel has embarked on a campaign that may be beyond its means to finish. Effective as these strikes are, they may not stop Iran’s nuclear drive and might even accelerate it.
What began with a covert drone strike has now turned into open conflict. Rockets are being fired at Israeli cities and airstrikes are lighting up the skies over Tehran. Israel is gambling on precision, pressure and psychological warfare to bring down a regime it hopes to bomb into submission. Iran is betting that it can absorb the blows, outlast its enemies and emerge nuclear-armed. Both sides are pushing the boundaries of strategy and restraint.
Right now, neither side has the option to stop. Both are willing to find out what happens when they do not. Whatever happens next could shape the Middle East for decades.
For many years now, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, American diplomacy on Iran has focused on curbing its nuclear program. Successive presidents have pledged to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But that approach, however admirable, did not seek to deny Iran the ability to make nuclear weapons nor did it address what was euphemistically called Iran’s “malign behavior.”David Harsanyi: Iran is nothing like the Iraq War
That behavior includes Iran’s status as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror attacks that have claimed countless lives on multiple continents. The regime has murdered Iranian dissidents around the world and tried to assassinate senior American officials, among them President Trump. The Islamic Republic has supplied the missiles and drones used to kill thousands of Ukrainians and helped ignite the current disastrous Middle East war by backing Hamas and Hezbollah. The regime enabled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to massacre a half million of his own countrymen and the Houthi terrorists in Yemen to block international shipping. Pro-Iranian militias launched dozens of attacks against US bases in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria killing and wounding American soldiers. And the Ayatollahs did all this while brutally oppressing their own people, women, LGBT+, and ethnic minorities especially. Malign behavior indeed.
By insisting that Iran not only limit its nuclear program but dismantle it, President Trump is the first world leader to ensure that the regime will neither have nuclear weapons now nor the means to produce them in the future. But once the Ayatollahs are defeated or overthrown, the president can achieve vastly more.
The president can end Iran’s support for global terror, its backing of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and its supply of the weapons that kill Ukrainians. The president can guarantee the sovereignty of Syria and Lebanon and the demilitarization of Yemen and Gaza. Through President Trump’s diplomacy, Iranians can once again enjoy freedom.
The fall of the Islamic Republic’s empire can give rise to peace between Israel and Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Iran itself. A ceasefire deal can be achieved in Gaza and all of the Israeli hostages released. The Middle East will be thoroughly and stunningly transformed. President Trump will be hailed as modern history’s greatest peacemaker.
Iran, of course, has been an enemy of the U.S. for over four decades, regularly taking American citizens hostage, hatching assassination plots against U.S. leaders, undermining U.S. interests in the Middle East, and threatening Gulf allies and international shipping lanes. Iran is responsible for the death of over 600 American troops, or approximately 1 in every 6 combat fatalities in Iraq, maiming thousands of others. Imagine how fundamentalist Islamic leadership would conduct itself with nuclear warheads.
It is, in case anyone has forgotten, the longtime position of the U.S. that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons. This was, ostensibly at least, the purpose of former President Barack Obama’s deal with the mullahs. Remember that Ben Rhodes’s “echo chamber” narrative was conceived to gin up support for the failed Iran deal. Trump, who backed out of that disastrous agreement, has on multiple occasions not only unequivocally stated that Iran would be denied nuclear weapons, but that he would allow Israel to take out the program. “Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later” does not sound like the sentiments of a neoconservative nation builder but a pragmatic Western leader.
Though Israelis have likely funded and employed public relations efforts to boost the prospect of internal opposition groups, not one leader has ever expressed any interest in landing troops on Iranian soil for any occupation to make it happen. If Iranians want to depose the Khamenei regime, and they have shown repeatedly that they do, they will have to do the hard work themselves.
For Israel, the strategic goal is clear: degrade, hopefully destroy, Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear bomb. Israel is trying to win a war of survival, not remake the Middle East. Numerous outlets have reported that Israel has asked the U.S. to participate in strikes. This might be true, or it might be information warfare. Perhaps the story was planted to scare the Iranians into surrendering. Perhaps Israel could use help destroying the Fordow nuclear facility, buried deep under the mountainside. Doing so would be in our best interests as well.
As of this writing, however, there is no evidence that the U.S. has engaged in any combat missions. The Iranians, thus far, haven’t attacked any American bases in the region because the last thing they need is further pulling us into the conflict.
And it’s about time rogue terrorist regimes were terrified of the U.S. again.
The United States is the only country in the world with the ability to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility quickly from the air, something we could accomplish by dropping a couple 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on the most important and heavily protected piece of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Such a strike would potentially reset the entirety of international arms control.Israel cannot settle for a temporary military win, it must topple the Islamic regime
Since the early 1970s, the world has depended on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the U.N. Security Council to maintain a global system that regulates the spread and development of nuclear weapons technology, placing American adversaries like China and Russia at the apex of the arms control system and creating layers of bureaucracy and diplomacy that would-be proliferators have learned to exploit. Pakistan, India, and North Korea have all built nuclear arsenals in defiance of the NPT. Until this week, Iran was very close to joining them.
The global arms control regime never considered Fordow—or, for that matter, Yongbyon, the site of North Korea’s nuclear breakthroughs in the mid-’90s—to be sufficiently serious a threat to global peace to warrant military action. Interestingly enough, the three most recent instances of a country using force to stop an in-progress nuclear program—namely, the Israeli attacks on Iraq, Syria, and Iran—were launched by a state that isn’t a signatory to the NPT. So far the United States has declined to attack North Korean and Iranian nuclear sites. If Donald Trump were to reverse course and bomb Fordow, he would reorient all of global nonproliferation around American strategic judgment and leadership. A successful U.S. attack on Fordow would establish a precedent that a would-be atomic scofflaw couldn’t ignore, with Washington acting as the final bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons in cases where the NPT regime failed.
But what if Trump decides stanching the tide of nuclear weapons is a job better left to the Chinas and Russias of the world? What if the Israelis are really on their own here? One of the big unknowns of Operation Rising Lion is the extent of the damage Israel has been able to inflict on the Iranian nuclear program so far. Clarifying the issue requires both scientific expertise and deep knowledge of the entire Iranian nuclear-industrial complex.
Almost no one on earth is more qualified to talk about Israel’s progress against the Iranian bomb than the physicist and former IAEA inspector David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). The institute has already published a detailed summary of the likely impact of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. I spoke to Albright on Monday afternoon to get an update on where things stand. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Israel’s immediate military actions have, by all accounts, been successful in degrading Tehran’s most critical threats. The three pillars of the regime's threat – its nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its global terror network – have been shaken. But to believe these setbacks are permanent is to ignore decades of history. The Islamic Republic’s ambition is resilient. Its nuclear program, though damaged, retains its most crucial asset: the knowledge to build a bomb. The scientists may be gone, the centrifuges shattered, but the blueprints remain. History shows us that after every setback, Tehran has rebuilt its program with greater speed, sophistication, and secrecy. To allow this regime to survive is to guarantee that it will rise from the rubble more determined than ever to cross the nuclear threshold, this time building deeper, more fortified sites, and learning from every Israeli success.Andrew Fox: How This Phase of the Israel-Iran War Will End
Similarly, its ballistic missile program is not merely a strategic asset; it is a core pillar of its regional dominance and its primary threat against the Israeli home front. While stockpiles can be destroyed and launch sites cratered, the industrial base and the engineering expertise remain. The regime’s leaders are driven by ideological and strategic imperative to maintain and advance this capability. They will rebuild, and they will aim for missiles that are faster, more precise, and capable of overwhelming any defense system.
Finally, the regime’s tentacular support for terrorism has been its primary method of waging war for decades. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, this proxy network is Iran’s way of bleeding its enemies without risking a direct state-on-state war. Disrupting weapons convoys and eliminating commanders are necessary tactical actions, but they do not address the source of the cancer. As long as the head of the snake remains in Tehran, it will continue to fund, arm, and direct its legion of proxies to sow chaos and violence on Israel’s borders.
The nature of this regime is not subject to negotiation. It will not be pacified by diplomacy or deterred by temporary military defeats. Its commitment to regional hegemony and the destruction of Israel is woven into its very DNA.
Therefore, Israel faces a stark choice. It can heed the calls for de-escalation, enjoy a fleeting moment of victory, and allow a wounded and vengeful regime to reconstitute its strength for the next, more lethal, round. Or, it can commit to a policy that sees this conflict through to its only logical conclusion: to topple the regime once and for all. It is time to stop trimming the branches of the poison tree and focus on uprooting it entirely.
With that being said, Andrew Fox is fairly optimistic, writing that “this war is won already.” He explains:
Israeli air supremacy has decimated Iran’s military infrastructure. At the same time, Iran’s missile salvos appear to be diminishing in scale daily as the IDF degrades Iranian launcher capability. Missiles have been intercepted for the most part, although they continue to inflict casualties.
Although Iran insists it will not negotiate under fire, its backchannel diplomacy conveys a different narrative. The regime seeks a face-saving way out. This is a surrender.
But the details of a negotiated peace could vary, and in the worst-case scenario, Fox writes,
the regime would frame it as a heroic stand: Iran “resisted Zionist aggression,” inflicted damage on Israel, and emerged intact. State media would highlight Israeli casualties and missile damage as proof of Iranian strength, while portraying international ceasefire efforts as evidence that the world fears Iran’s power. This narrative of resilience could temporarily bolster the regime’s fragile legitimacy.
However, this “victory” would be highly costly and precarious. Israeli strikes have devastated Iran’s military infrastructure, degraded the leadership of the [Revolutionary Guard], and set back its nuclear program, albeit not permanently. The economy, already crippled by sanctions, would be in an even worse condition, with oil facilities, airports, and industrial sites all damaged. Rebuilding would take years.
If Iran does not find a way to reach a deal, Israel will capitalize on its advantage and try to collapse the Iranian regime. The IDF, having achieved air supremacy, will target the regime’s backbone: command bunkers, nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, and symbols of state authority.
At this stage, there is nothing at all to stop Israel from relentlessly pounding Iran until it surrenders. There seems to be no shortage of ammunition, and American resupply can happen at will. Despite international media attempts to portray a tit-for-tat scenario, it has been an overwhelming victory for Israel. This is not even a debate.
Elder of Ziyon|
"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
![]() |
Elder of Ziyon|
"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
![]() |
Elder of ZiyonIran’s flawed strategic doctrine, which was also practiced by its proxy, Hezbollah, to equally bad results, is a doctrine I call trying to out-crazy an adversary. Iran and Hezbollah are always ready to go all the way, thinking that whatever their opponents might do in response, Hezbollah or Iran will always outdo them with a more extreme measure.[W]here it fell short was Iran and Hezbollah thinking they could drive Israelis out of their biblical homeland. Iran and Hezbollah are delusional in this regard — Hamas, too. They keep referring to the Jewish state as a foreign colonial enterprise, with no indigenous connection to the land, and therefore they assume the Jews will eventually meet the same fate as the Belgians in the Belgian Congo. That is, under enough pressure they will eventually go back to their own version of Belgium.But the Israeli Jews have no Belgium. They are as indigenous to their biblical homeland as the Palestinians, no matter what “anticolonial” nonsense they teach at elite universities. Therefore, you will never out-crazy the Israeli Jews. If push comes to shove, they will out-crazy you.They will play by the local rules, and yes, those are not the rules of the Geneva Conventions. They are the rules of the Middle East, which I call Hama Rules — named after the Hama attacks perpetrated by the Syrian government of Hafez al-Assad in 1982, the aftermath of which I covered. Al-Assad wiped out the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama by mercilessly leveling whole swaths of the city, whole blocks of apartments, into a parking lot. Hama rules are no rules at all.
I wish I had a dollar for every time, after some murderous attack on Israeli Jews by Palestinians or Iranian proxies, the Israeli government declared that it was going to solve the problem with force “once and for all.”There are only two ways to finish off this problem once and for all. One is for Israel to permanently occupy the West Bank, Gaza and all of Iran, as America did to Germany and Japan after World War II, and try to change the political culture.
Which brings me to what Trump should do now regarding Iran. He says he still hopes “there’s going to be a deal.” If he wants a good deal, he should declare that he is doing two things at once.One, that he will equip Israel’s Air Force with the B-2 bombers and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and U.S. trainers that would give Israel the capacity to destroy all of Iran’s underground nuclear facilities unless Iran immediately agrees to allow teams from the International Atomic Energy Agency to disassemble these facilities and to have access into every nuclear site in Iran to recover all fissile material that Tehran has generated. Only if Iran completely complies with these conditions should it be allowed to have a civilian nuclear program under strict IAEA controls. But Iran will comply only under a credible threat of force.
At the same time, Trump should declare that his administration recognizes the Palestinians as a people who have a right to national self-determination. But to realize that, they must demonstrate that they can fulfill the responsibilities of statehood by generating a new Palestinian Authority leadership that the United States deems credible, free of corruption and committed both to effectively serving Palestinian citizens in the West Bank and Gaza and to coexisting with Israel.
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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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Elder of Ziyon|
"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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