Showing posts with label Elephants in the room. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elephants in the room. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 09, 2023



Recently, a group of hundreds of North American academics issued a statement linking the Israeli governments support for judicial reform with the "occupation" and saying Israel is guilty of apartheid and Jewish supremacism.

They called the Israeli presence in Judea and Samaria "the elephant in the room."

This prompts me to bring up the real elephants in the room - the elephants that these human rights pretenders always ignore and want everyone else to ignore as well

I have been calling out these elephants since 2005, updating the list every few years. These are the facts that everyone knows - and that are actively suppressed by the media, politicians, academia and "experts."

Here is the latest iteration of the inconvenient facts that no one wants to discuss:

Elephant 1: Terror groups control Gaza - and that will not change

Every peace plan and proposal includes Gaza in a Palestinian Arab state, and none of them has any provision on how to handle the fact that Gaza is a terrorist haven, in much worse shape since Israel uprooted the settlements there, controlled by Iranian-funded terrorist groups that are consistently and wholeheartedly against Israel's existence.   Peace is impossible with this elephant, so it is easier to pretend it isn't there - or, for some, to position the genocidal, antisemitic desires of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as somehow a brave fight for freedom.

Elephant 2: Palestinian Arabs consistently support terrorism

In the only fair, democratic elections in the territories, the Hamas terrorists were chosen by the people. Poll after poll shows that Palestinian Arabs support terror in Israel itself. (52% still support a violent intifada in 2019.) The elections and surveys proved that the conventional wisdom was wrong - and the conventional wisdom ignores and downplays this proof that peace is impossible, and it isn't Israel's fault.

Elephant 3: The current PA government was not elected

This corollary to Elephant 2 means that the people representing "Palestine" on TV and at the UN do not represent the people. Even if they sound moderate or compromising, they have no mandate. The current PA president is well past his term of office, and none of his prime ministers were ever elected  Negotiating with the PA is, literally, meaningless.


Similarly, the unelected PLO is the real power behind the PA. The PA officially reports to the PLO, and all negotiations are done by the autocratic, Fatah-dominated PLO, not the PA.

Elephant 4: The current PA government has almost no power - and no respect

Outside of Ramallah, the Abbas government has little popular support and little power. Terror groups are a very real threat to the PA in the West Bank and have been building their bases, which has now become obvious in recent years.  The PA has lost large swaths of the West Bank. The PA canceled the last elections because they would have lost to Hamas.

Elephant 5: The PA is being kept alive by artificial methods

The PA budget is bloated from "payroll" of non-working workers, including terrorists who receive a salary for not working. The PA may also still be paying Gaza workers who were kicked out of their government jobs in 2006 by Hamas.  The very basis of the organized Palestinian Arab workforce is a fiction being kept barely alive by external infusions of cash with no real plan to fix the problem.

Elephant 6: Fatah remains a terrorist group paid by the PA

Despite the claims that the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades has dismantled, it is a joke meant to appease the wishful-thinkers. The PA might arrest Hamas members in the West Bank, but there still remains - today - terrorist groups that report to Fatah. Here's the webpage of one of them. There has been no serious move by the PA to dismantle their own terror groups, and there are lots of PA security employees who join with terror groups like Lion's Den at night. 






Elephant 7: The PA's goal remains the destruction of Israel

Whether it is by "right of return" or not changing the Fatah charter or by printing map after map showing no Israel, even the most moderate Palestinian leader clings to the idea of destroying Israel, and looks upon a Palestinian Arab state as only one stage in the process. One only needs to look at the maps of "Palestine" in official PA documents and schoolbooks. 


2011 poll that remains criminally under-reported proves that when Palestinian Arabs say they want a two-state solution, it is only a stage towards their real goal of destroying Israel. 

And polls in 2019 confirm it.


Elephant 8: Jerusalem

Most Israelis want a unified Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. Most Palestinian Arabs refuse to accept anything less than all of ("east") Jerusalem as the capital of a Muslim state. The positions are not compatible and a compromise will not reduce the chances for violence - it will increase it.

Jerusalem, under Jewish rule, has more religious freedom than at any time in its history. That would disappear in any "peace plan."  But "human rights activists" are remarkably uninterested in the rights of Jews. 

Elephant 9: Israeli concessions have encouraged more terror

The conventional wisdom is that if only Israel give Palestinians more of what they demand, it will help bring peace. But history shows the opposite.

Israel's far-reaching offers for peace in 2000 and 2001 had a very loud response: the second Intifada and thousands killed. Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon to UN-drawn lines resulted in Hezbollah becoming more powerful, with hundreds of thousands of rockets pointed at Israel and new provocations at the border, with one major war in 2006 and another threatened. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza did not result in peace but in the takeover of Gaza by terror groups. 

Israeli concessions are regarded not as goodwill gestures that should be reciprocated but as weakness that must be taken advantage of. 

And that is exactly what would happen if Israel withdraws from areas in Judea and Samaria.

Elephant 10: Palestinian Arab "unity"

No peace plan can work unless Hamas and the PA/Fatah, along with other terror groups, reach some sort of unification agreement. This is not possible in the foreseeable future. Moreover, Hamas is powerful enough that any such agreement must include a hardening of PLO positions that would be completely incompatible with the basic minimum standards for peace - renunciation of terror, recognition of Israel and acceptance of previous agreements.

Elephant 11: "Refugee camps"

The only reason there are still "refugee camps" in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are to keep Palestinians in misery - to make them pawns in photo-ops and to create new generations of terrorists. Real fighters for human rights would insist that "refugees" become full citizens of the countries they have lived in for generations - but they argue the opposite. Real human rights advocates would insist that the camps in PA and Hamas controlled territory be dismantled and normal housing built - but they don't. People who hate Israel are eager to sacrifice the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians because they want to destroy Israel with the fictional "right of return." Israel will never agree so these people are left in misery, forever.

See also Elephant 16.

Elephant 12: Economics

Some 30 years after Oslo, the economy in the territories is still close to non-existent and wholly dependent on foreign aid. Not only is there no free market, there is no incentive to build one as the very mentality of Palestinian Arabs and their leaders is one of welfare rather than responsibility. All the plans to create a Palestinian Arab state do not consider Day 2 and how such a state would be able to sustain itself. The expected influx of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Lebanon and Syria would make it even worse. It would take at least a generation to turn the poisonous attitude of entitlement around.

Elephant 13: Gaza demographics

Gazans have no room to expand as their numbers continue to grow at among the fastest rates in the world.  Theoretically they could move to the West Bank but only a small percentage would. This is another Day 2 powder keg that is being ignored in the interests of a "solution" of a "Palestinian state." 

Elephant 14: Palestinian Arab leaders never showed interest in independence

The West assumes that the goal is an independent Palestinian Arab state where Arabs no longer have to live under "occupation." But the actions and words of Palestinian Arab leaders have never borne that goal out; they have not worked towards building the institutions and infrastructure that would be necessary in an independent state. Their insistence on "right of return" and "Jerusalem" as issues that must be resolved before independence betray their thought processes - inconsistent with independence (neither of which require those two issues to be resolved) and consistent with a desire to destroy Israel in stages.


Elephant 15: A unilateral Palestinian Arab state would be militarized

There is no way that a new Palestinian Arab state would remain demilitarized for any length of time. The Palestinian government could invite a friendly Muslim nation to position anti-aircraft weapons within its territory; to shoot missiles at El Al planes landing a few miles from the Green Line, or to get a few thousand tanks poised to cut Israel in half.

Iran already effectively controls Lebanon, Syria and to a large extent Gaza They would use the nascent state of Palestine to position themselves on the West Bank as well. Just like the PA ran away from Gaza at the first sign of trouble, so would they lose their state to Iranian proxies and Islamic terrorists.

The PLO's will to defend themselves is not nearly as strong as their will to destroy Israel, a desire that has been inculcated in them for generations. Palestinian Arab nationalism is a fundamentally weak and externally-imposed construct. Iran is poised and anxious to take advantage of the chaos that would follow a unilaterally declared state, even if at the moment they are distracted.

But the West is ready to risk Israel for that elephant as well.


Elephant 16: The so-called "right to return"

The PA is showing no interest in integrating the Palestinian Arabs outside of the territories into their state. On the contrary; the "refugee camps" in PA controlled territory continue to grow, rather than shrink. Clearly, the PA expects the bulk of the  "diaspora" to go to Israel, not a Palestinian Arab state, and decades of incitement both within and without the territories have brainwashed generations of Arabs to not accept anything less than a "return" to a land that most of them have never stepped foot in. (UNRWA has been a major promulgator of this lie.)


Elephant 17: Corruption and human rights abuses are still endemic in the PA

Despite the publicized successes, the PA remains mired in corruption, hardly a model for an independent state. The 2008 Global Integrity Report rated the West Bank as close to the bottom in its corruption ratings and more Palestinians have rated local corruption among the worst in the Arab world. It hasn't improved

The PA is a dictatorship. Mahmoud Abbas controls the PLO that the PA reports to, the judiciary, the legislative branch and the executive branch. There is no independence or checks and balances. 

Women are discriminated against by law. Press freedom remains low; the justice system is opaque, and whistle-blowers are forced to go to the Israeli press to expose corruption. Prisoners are tortured. And except for rare occasions, these abuses are ignored.

Elephant 18: Palestine would be Judenrein

Statements by PA leaders make it clear that their state of Palestine would not have any Jewish citizens allowed within. Jews whose ancestors have lived in Judea and Samaria, whether for decades or for millennia, will be legally barred from living in Palestine - an extraordinary display of state antisemitism that is completely at odds with the Western standards that the nascent state of "Palestine" is pretending to live up to. 

Elephant 19: The Muslim world's antipathy towards Israel

Although this is weakening, most of the Arab world and the Muslim world remains overwhelmingly against the idea of a Jewish state in the midst of supposedly Muslim lands. Iran remains in de facto control of southern Lebanon and Gaza; ordinary Jordanians and Egyptians remain among the worst antisemites in the Arab world. The Abraham Accords have been a tremendous counterweight to this, and things are better than they have been in the past, but the Arab people themselves are still overwhelmingly antisemitic and anti-Israel. The threat from radical Islam remains potent in Arab and Muslim states. No concessions would change that.

Elephant 20: Mahmoud Abbas will die and there is no plan for the day after

Mahmoud Abbas has no successor. Polls show that if elections were held today, the new president of the PA would be a convicted terrorist now in Israeli prison. Iranian-funded error groups are poised to take over. Even if Abbas would sign a real peace agreement today, that paper would be next to worthless after he is gone.


Israel has to navigate these challenges every day. Rarely does the media mention them, instead insisting on a simplistic narrative where only Israel is responsible for peace. This pretense that Palestinians have no responsibility of their own - a fiction that Palestinian leaders go to great lengths to promulgate - is ultimately racist against Palestinians. 



Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism  today at Amazon!

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Thursday, January 02, 2020

I used to have a roughly annual feature called The Elephants in the Room, where I would list all of the inconvenient facts that show that peace is impossible.

I haven't done it since 2013, and the list is still very similar to what it was then. The real issues are swept under the rug, while everyone talks about "occupation" as if that is the main obstacle to peace.

It isn't.

So here is a slightly updated list of elephants that is still being ignored by nearly everyone:

Elephant 1: Hamas controls Gaza

Every peace plan includes Gaza in a Palestinian Arab state, and none of them has any provision on how to handle the fact that Gaza is a terrorist haven, in much worse shape since Israel uprooted the settlements there, controlled by a terrorist group that is consistently and wholeheartedly against Israel's existence.   Peace is impossible with this elephant, so it is easier to pretend it isn't there. 

Elephant 2: Palestinian Arabs elected a terror government

In the only fair, democratic elections in the territories, the Hamas terrorists were chosen by the people. Poll after poll shows that Palestinian Arabs support terror in Israel itself. (52% still support a violent intifada in 2019.) The elections proved that the conventional wisdom was wrong - and the conventional wisdom proceeded to ignore it.

Elephant 3: The current PA government was not elected

This corollary to Elephant 2 means that the people representing "Palestine" on TV and at the UN do not represent the people. Even if they sound moderate or compromising, they have no mandate. The current PA president is well past his term of office, and none of his prime ministers were ever elected  Negotiating with the PA is, literally, meaningless.


Similarly, the unelected PLO is the real power behind the PA. The PA officially reports to the PLO, and all negotiations are done by the autocratic, Fatah-dominated PLO, not the PA.

Elephant 4: The current PA government has almost no power - and no respect

Outside of Ramallah, the Abbas government has little popular support and little power. Hamas is a very real threat to the PA in the West Bank and is quietly building its base, although the PA is pretty ruthless in attacking Hamas directly and indirectly through financial means. The attitudes that forced the PA to abandon Gaza - a lack of passion by people for its positions - could very well play out in the West Bank as well, especially if there are new elections.


Elephant 5: The PA is being kept alive by artificial methods

The PA budget is bloated from "payroll" of non-working workers, including terrorists who receive a salary for not working. The PA may also still be paying Gaza workers who were kicked out of their government jobs in 2006 by Hamas.  The very basis of the organized Palestinian Arab workforce is a fiction being kept barely alive by ever-increasing infusions of cash with no real plan to fix the problem.

Elephant 6: Fatah remains a terrorist group paid by the PA

Despite the claims that the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades has dismantled, it is a joke meant to appease the wishful-thinkers. The PA might arrest Hamas members in the West Bank, but there still remains - today - terrorist groups that report to Fatah. Here's the webpage of one of them. There has been no serious move by the PA to dismantle their own terror groups, and they still appear in public with their guns.






Elephant 7: The PA's goal remains the destruction of Israel

Whether it is by "right of return" or not changing the Fatah charter or by printing map after map showing no Israel, even the most moderate Palestinian leader clings to the idea of destroying Israel, and looks upon a Palestinian Arab state as only one stage in the process. One only needs to look at the maps of "Palestine" in official PA documents and schoolbooks. 


2011 poll that remains criminally under-reported proves that when Palestinian Arabs say they want a two-state solution, it is only a stage towards their real goal of destroying Israel. 

And polls in 2019 confirm it.

Elephant 8: Jerusalem

Most Israelis want a unified Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. Most Palestinian Arabs refuse to accept anything less than all of ("east") Jerusalem as the capital of a Muslim state. The positions are not compatible and a compromise will not reduce the chances for violence - it will increase it.

Elephant 9: What happened to Gaza

Forgetting Hamas for now, the time period between Israel's dismantling settlements in Gaza and the Hamas takeover is instructive as to how Palestinian Arabs take advantage of territory they gain. They didn't build new houses or communities to reduce the "refugee camp" population, no schools or hospitals. They destroyed the greenhouses purchased for them by American Jews; they turned beautiful former settlements into training camps for terror - in other words, Israel's last major concession not only didn't help achieve peace, it ended up encouraging terror. Any claims that something similar wouldn't happen in the West Bank is the triumph of wishful thinking over experience.

Elephant 10: Palestinian Arab "unity"

Related to Elephant #1. No peace plan can work unless Hamas and the PA/Fatah reach some sort of unification agreement. This is not possible in the foreseeable future. Moreover, Hamas is powerful enough that any such agreement must include a hardening of PLO positions that would be completely incompatible with the basic minimum standards for peace - renunciation of terror, recognition of Israel and acceptance of previous agreements.

Elephant 11: The Palestinian Arab "diaspora" and Arab intransigence

Any final peace agreement would mean that Arab countries could no longer justify keeping Palestinian Arabs in "refugee camps" nor could they justify their continued refusal to discriminate against Palestinian Arabs from becoming citizens of their countries should they want to stay. The millions of PalArabs in the Middle East becoming citizens would not be accepted by many Arab countries as it would endanger their own tenuous holds on power. 


Elephant 12: Economics

Some 25 years after Oslo, the economy in the territories is still close to non-existent and wholly dependent on foreign aid. Not only is there no free market, there is no incentive to build one as the very mentality of Palestinian Arabs and their leaders is one of welfare rather than responsibility. All the plans to create a Palestinian Arab state do not consider Day 2 and how such a state would be able to sustain itself. The expected influx of hundreds of thousands of people from "refugee camps" would make it even worse. It would take at least a generation to turn the poisonous attitude of entitlement around.

Elephant 13: Gaza demographics

Gazans have no room to expand as their numbers continue to grow at among the fastest rates in the world.  Theoretically they could move to the West Bank but only a small percentage would. This is another Day 2 powder keg that is being ignored in the interests of a "solution" of a "Palestinian state." 

Elephant 14: Palestinian Arab leaders never showed interest in independence

The West assumes that the goal is an independent Palestinian Arab state where Arabs no longer have to live under "occupation." But the actions and words of Palestinian Arab leaders have never borne that goal out; they have not worked towards building the institutions and infrastructure that would be necessary in an independent state. Their insistence on "right of return" and "Jerusalem" as issues that must be resolved before independence betray their thought processes - inconsistent with independence (neither of which require those two issues to be resolved) and consistent with a desire to destroy Israel in stages.


Elephant 15: A unilateral Palestinian Arab state would be militarized

There is no way that a new Palestinian Arab state would remain demilitarized for any length of time. The Palestinian government could invite a friendly Muslim nation to position anti-aircraft weapons within its territory; to shoot missiles at El Al planes landing a few miles from the Green Line, or to get a few thousand tanks poised to cut Israel in half.

Iran already effectively controls Lebanon and Syria and is working to ensure Gaza comes back under its orbit. They would use the nascent state of Palestine to position themselves on the West Bank as well. Just like the PA ran away from Gaza at the first sign of trouble, so would they abandon their state to Iranian proxies and Islamic terrorists.

The PLO's will to defend themselves is not nearly as strong as their will to destroy Israel, a desire that has been inculcated in them for generations. Palestinian Arab nationalism is a fundamentally weak and externally-imposed construct. Iran is poised and anxious to take advantage of the chaos that would follow a unilaterally declared state, even if at the moment they are distracted.

But the West is ready to risk Israel for that elephant as well.


Elephant 16: The so-called "right to return"

The PA is showing no interest in integrating the Palestinian Arabs outside of the territories into their state. On the contrary; the "refugee camps" in PA controlled territory continue to grow, rather than shrink. Clearly, the PA expects the bulk of the  "diaspora" to go to Israel, not a Palestinian Arab state, and decades of incitement both within and without the territories have brainwashed generations of Arabs to not accept anything less than a "return" to a land that most of them have never stepped foot in. (UNRWA has been a major promulgator of this lie.)


Elephant 17: Corruption and human rights abuses are still endemic in the PA

Despite the publicized successes, the PA remains mired in corruption, hardly a model for an independent state. The 2008 Global Integrity Report rated the West Bank as close to the bottom in its corruption ratings and more recently Palestinians rated local corruption among the worst in the Arab world. Women are discriminated against by law. Press freedom remains low; the justice system is opaque, and whistle-blowers are forced to go to the Israeli press to expose corruption. The success that the PA has had in weakening Hamas in the West Bank has come at the expense of massive human rights violations, including torture. 

Elephant 18: Palestine would be Judenrein

Statements by PA leaders make it clear that their state of Palestine would not have any Jewish citizens allowed within. Jews whose ancestors have lived in Judea and Samaria, whether for decades or for millennia, will be legally barred from living in Palestine - an extraordinary display of state antisemitism that is completely at odds with the Western standards that the nascent state of "Palestine" is attempting to live up to. 

Elephant 19: The Muslim world's antipathy towards Israel

Although this is weakening, the Arab world and the Muslim world remains implacably against the idea of a Jewish state in the midst of supposedly Muslim lands. Iran remains in de facto control of southern Lebanon and Gaza; ordinary Jordanians and Egyptians remain among the worst anti-semites in the Arab world. The best "peace" would be bitter cold; it will not include any real normalization, and the threat from radical Islam remains potent in Arab and Muslim states. The best peace plan would result in Israel being exactly where it is today - surrounded by enemies, with less of a land buffer, and Israel relying on US money to prompt Arab neighbors to keep radicals in check. 

That is not peace, and that is not security. 

Elephant 20: The Arab Spring

We now see how tenuous is the hold of Arab leaders on their nations. The chances of a similar upheaval in the Palestinian Arab-controlled areas is not small. What would happen to the "peace agreement" then? 

Abbas has no successor. Polls show that if elections were held today, the new president of the PA would be a convicted terrorist now in Israeli prison. Even if Abbas would sign a peace agreement today, that paper would be next to worthless after he is gone.




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Sunday, May 11, 2014

The Lebanese, and now anti-Israel Palestinian Christians, continue their uproar over the planned visit of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai to Israel to welcome the Pope that I mentioned last week. 

Ma'an reports that the rabidly anti-Israel Kairos Palestine issued a statement (not on their website yet) denouncing the trip:

Palestinian group Kairos released a statement on Friday warning Patriarch Beshara al-Rai that his plans to accompany the Pope on a Holy Land visit May 24-26 could be misused by Israeli authorities to "whitewash" the occupation.

"We as Christian Palestinians are eager to see and meet with our religious guides and leaders," the statement said, but it stressed that the group would prefer to meet with him in "prayer of the spirits, and not in the presence of the Israeli occupation."

The group also expressed its desire to "prevent the formation of any moral, ethical, or religious cover" for the occupation, highlighting their fears that Israeli authorities would misuse the patriarch's visit to distract attention from crimes perpetuated against Palestinians.

"This step may delight the occupation state, not because it believes in the right of religions to express themselves and to practice their rituals, but because it serves its policies and whitewashes its face," the statement continued.
Mahmoud Abbas disagrees, but of course insists that "normalization" with Israel is an unspeakable evil:
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas praised on Wednesday evening the Maronite Patriarch's anticipated visit to Jerusalem, considering that it contributes to “strengthening Muslim-Christian coexistence as well as the Arabic identity” of the occupied Palestinian territories.

"We highly appreciate, respect and welcome Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi's visit to the Holy Land and meeting with the city's people,” Abbas said in a telephone call with Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, according to a statement published on the state-run National News Agency.

"This visit contributes to preserving the Arab identity and the resistance of Jerusalem and Palestine,” he expressed.

He continued: “We welcome Palestine's great visitor, the head of the Maronite Church which has a history of preserving Arabic language and culture.”

Addressing al-Rahi, the Palestinian leader said: "We welcome you in your second country. Your visit is not a normalization (with Israel) as those with personal agendas are claiming. They seem to be surrendering to reality by rejecting your visit to Palestine and Jerusalem, explaining that these territories are under occupation.”

"This is your city and that of besieged Palestinians. Our hearts and homes are open to welcome you, hoping that we pay the Lebanese back some of their favors in hosting hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, and in supporting the sacrifices of our people.”
Israel haters express the fear that Israel will politicize the visit, but Abbas using it as a weapon against Israel doesn't seem to bother anyone!

The Patriarch is, so far, standing by his decision:
Al-Rahi had however reportedly defended his decision to accompany Pope Francis to Jerusalem and hinted that he would not change his mind, saying that as Maronite Patriarch of Antioch and All the East, it is his duty to welcome the Pope in any country in the region.

"I am the Maronite Patriarch of Antioch and All the East, of regions expanding from Turkey to Mauritania, Saudi Arabia and to Iran,” he stated upon his arrival at Rafik Hariri International Airport coming from France on Tuesday afternoon.

"It is my duty to welcome the Pope in any country in these regions,” he explained.

And to those against his visit, the patriarch said they don't have "to accept it."
You can be certain that two of the great truths of the Middle East will not be mentioned once by Beshara or by any Palestinian Arab leader who greets him.

One is that the Christian population in the Middle East, including under Palestinian Arab rule, has been declining rapidly, and it is all because of Muslim anti-Christian sentiment.

Bethlehem was 60% Christian in 1990, under Israeli rule. Now the percentage of Christians there has plummeted to below 20% today under PA rule. It cannot be because of Israeli policies, because the Muslim population in Bethlehem has been increasing dramatically.

Another is that Christians have been fleeing Lebanon for decades as well. While they used to be roughly one third the population there, those days are long past. However, Christians refuse to allow a new census for fear they would lose the political power they have there by law.

Finally, another salient fact that no one will mention: Palestinian Arabs in Lebanon are treated worst of all, and are discriminated against by law, with severe restrictions on where they can live and work. These "guests" that Abbas says are being so graciously hosted by Lebanon have been fleeing as well; some 200,000 of them have emigrated even while UNRWA still claims them as "refugees" that they are helping.

No, the real problems of Christians under Palestinian and Lebanese rule, and Palestinians under Lebanese rule, will not be the subject of a single statement by Mahmoud Abbas and Patriarch Beshara. All they will talk about is about how Jerusalem and "Palestine" are Arab - and how Jews, from whom the entire claim of Christians and Muslims derive, have no rights in their ancestral homeland.

How inclusive of them.

(Yesterday's Torah reading included Lev 25:38: "I am the LORD your God, who brought you forth out of the land of Egypt, to give you the land of Canaan, to be your God." Such a simple, straightforward verse like this causes Christian antisemites who deny any Jewish connection to the land to jump through hoops to explain how you cannot take God's Word at His word.)

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Now that US has successfully pressured Israel and the PA to attend talks, it seems to be a good time to revisit the list of "elephants in the room" that are still being mostly ignored. The list, sadly, has not changed much since I last did this in 2010.

Elephant 1: Hamas controls Gaza

Every peace plan includes Gaza in a Palestinian Arab state, and none of them has any provision on how to handle the fact that Gaza is a terrorist haven, in much worse shape since Israel uprooted the settlements there, controlled by a terrorist group that is consistently and wholeheartedly against Israel's existence.   Peace is impossible with this elephant, so it is easier to pretend it isn't there. (See also Elephant 11.)

Elephant 2: Palestinian Arabs elected a terror government

In the only fair, democratic elections in the territories, the Hamas terrorists were chosen by the people. Poll after poll shows that Palestinian Arabs support terror in Israel itself. (Over 40% still support a violent intifada in 2013.) The elections proved that the conventional wisdom was wrong - and the conventional wisdom proceeded to ignore it.

Elephant 3: The current PA government was not elected

This corollary to Elephant 2 means that the current people negotiating for the Palestinian Arabs do not represent the people. Even if they sound moderate or compromising, they have no mandate. The current PA president is well past his term of office, and the current and previous prime minister were never elected (in fact, he received a tiny percentage of the vote when he did run for election.) Negotiating with the PA is, literally, meaningless.


Similarly, the unelected PLO is the real power behind the PA. The PA officially reports to the PLO, and all negotiations are done by the autocratic, Fatah-dominated PLO, not the PA.

Elephant 4: The current PA government has almost no power - and no respect

Outside of Ramallah, the Fayyad/Abbas government has little popular support and little power. Hamas is a very real threat to the PA in the West Bank and is quietly building its base. The attitudes that forced the PA to abandon Gaza - a lack of passion by people for its positions - could very well play out in the West Bank as well.


Elephant 5: The PA is being kept alive by artificial methods

The PA budget is bloated from "payroll" of non-working workers - but if they would slash the payroll, the people on international welfare would revolt. So the very basis of the organized Palestinian Arab workforce is a fiction being kept barely alive by ever-increasing infusions of cash with no real plan to fix the problem. (The bulk of the PA budget goes to Gaza, and much of that goes to workers being paid not to work.)

Elephant 6: Fatah remains a terrorist group paid by the PA

Despite the recent claims that the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades has dismantled, it is a joke meant to appease the wishful-thinkers. The PA might arrest Hamas members in the West Bank, but there still remains - today - terrorist groups that report to Fatah. Here's the webpage of one of them. There has been no serious move by the PA to dismantle their own terror groups.

Elephant 7: The first - and second - stages of the roadmap were never implemented

The entire point of the road map was to slowly build confidence, starting with the end of terror and incitement on the Palestinian Arab side, afterwards building a "provisional" state and only then going to final-status negotiations. Abbas and his team simply threw out phases I and II. By skipping to Phase III as if the other two phases were already in place, the entire exercise is simply a joke. Incitement remains at full blast and the lull in terror is tactical, not a sea-change in Palestinian Arab attitudes. 


Even though the US has made statements against Palestinian Arab incitement, it hasn't moved to stop it. 

This is not so much an elephant anymore quite so much as it is a proof that terror works. Before the second intifada, the world was not fully behind a Palestinian state; autonomy was still considered an option. The world never demanded 1 to 1 land swaps based on the 1967 lines - but after the terror spree they now do. And the demands of the road map to slowly build confidence before granting a state has likewise been thrown out the window. 

Terror pays.

Elephant 8: The PA's goal remains the destruction of Israel

Whether it is by "right of return" or not changing the Fatah charter or by printing map after map showing no Israel, even the most moderate Palestinian leader clings to the idea of destroying Israel, and looks upon a Palestinian Arab state as only one stage in the process. One only needs to look at the maps of "Palestine" in official PA documents and schoolbooks. 




A 2011 poll that remains criminally under-reported proves that when Palestinian Arabs say they want a two-state solution, it is only a stage towards their real goal of destroying Israel. 



Elephant 9: Jerusalem

Most Israelis want a unified Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. Most Palestinian Arabs refuse to accept anything less than all of ("east") Jerusalem as the capital of a Muslim state. The positions are not compatible and a compromise will not reduce the chances for violence - it will increase it.

Elephant 10: What happened to Gaza

Forgetting Hamas for now, the time period between Israel's dismantling settlements in Gaza and the Hamas takeover is instructive as to how Palestinian Arabs take advantage of territory they gain. They didn't build new houses or communities to reduce the "refugee camp" population, no schools or hospitals. They destroyed the greenhouses purchased for them by American Jews; they turned beautiful former settlements into training camps for terror - in other words, Israel's last major concession not only didn't help achieve peace, it ended up encouraging terror. Any claims that something similar wouldn't happen in the West Bank is the triumph of wishful thinking over experience.

Elephant 11: Palestinian Arab "unity"

Related to Elephant #1. No peace plan can work unless Hamas and the PA/Fatah reach some sort of unification agreement. This is not possible in the foreseeable future. Moreover, Hamas is powerful enough that any such agreement must include a hardening of PLO positions that would be completely incompatible with the basic Quartet demands for peace - renunciation of terror, recognition of Israel and acceptance of previous agreements.

Elephant 12: The Palestinian Arab "diaspora" and Arab intransigence

Any final peace agreement would mean that Arab countries could no longer justify keeping Palestinian Arabs in "refugee camps" nor could they justify their continued refusal to discriminate against Palestinian Arabs from becoming citizens of their countries should they want to stay. The millions of PalArabs in the Middle East becoming citizens would not be accepted by many Arab countries as it would endanger their own tenuous holds on power. 


Elephant 13: Economics

Some 16 years after Oslo, the economy in the territories is still close to non-existent and wholly dependent on foreign aid. Not only is there no free market, there is no incentive to build one as the very mentality of Palestinian Arabs and their leaders is one of welfare rather than responsibility. All the plans to create a Palestinian Arab state do not consider Day 2 and how such a state would be able to sustain itself. The expected influx of hundreds of thousands of people from "refugee camps" would make it even worse. It would take at least a generation to turn the poisonous attitude of entitlement around.

Elephant 14: Gaza demographics

Gazans have no room to expand as their numbers continue to grow at among the fastest rates in the world.  Theoretically they could move to the West Bank but only a small percentage would. This is another Day 2 powder keg that is being ignored in the interests of a "solution" of a "Palestinian state." 

Elephant 15: Palestinian Arab leaders never showed interest in independence

The West assumes that the goal is an independent Palestinian Arab state where Arabs no longer have to live under "occupation." But the actions and words of Palestinian Arab leaders have never borne that goal out; they have not worked towards building the institutions and infrastructure that would be necessary in an independent state. Their insistence on "right of return" and "Jerusalem" as issues that must be resolved before independence betray their thought processes - inconsistent with independence (neither of which require those two issues to be resolved) and consistent with a desire to destroy Israel in stages.


Elephant 16: A unilateral Palestinian Arab state would be militarized

There is no way that a new Palestinian Arab state would remain demilitarized for any length of time. The Palestinian government could invite a friendly Muslim nation to position anti-aircraft weapons within its territory; to shoot missiles at El Al planes landing a few miles from the Green Line, or to get a few thousand tanks poised to cut Israel in half.

Iran already effectively controls Lebanon and Syria and is working to ensure Gaza comes back under its orbit. They would use the nascent state of Palestine to position themselves on the West Bank as well. Just like the PA ran away from Gaza at the first sign of trouble, so would they abandon their state to Iranian proxies and Islamic terrorists.

The PLO's will to defend themselves is not nearly as strong as their will to destroy Israel, a desire that has been inculcated in them for generations. Palestinian Arab nationalism is a fundamentally weak and externally-imposed construct. Iran is poised and anxious to take advantage of the chaos that would follow a unilaterally declared state, even if at the moment they are distracted.

But the West is ready to risk Israel for that elephant as well.


Elephant 17: The so-called "right to return"

The PA is showing no interest in integrating the Palestinian Arabs outside of the territories into their state. On the contrary; the "refugee camps" in PA controlled territory continue to grow, rather than shrink. Clearly, the PA expects the bulk of the  "diaspora" to go to Israel, not a Palestinian Arab state, and decades of incitement both within and without the territories have brainwashed generations of Arabs to not accept anything less than a "return" to a land that most of them have never stepped foot in. (UNRWA has been a major promulgator of this lie.)

Elephant 18: The tension between being pro-West and pro-Arab

The biggest Western success story in the Palestinian Arab territories is the existence of the "Dayton forces" that have been helping crack down on Hamas in the West Bank. 

However, most Palestinian Arabs regard those forces as puppets of the West. Not only do Hamas and Islamic Jihad hammer away at this point, but ordinary Palestinian Arabs do as well. The more cooperation between the PA and Israel/US, the more the PA government is delegitimized in the eyes of its people. 

Elephant 19: Corruption and human rights abuses are still endemic in the PA

Despite the publicized successes, the PA remains mired in corruption, hardly a model for an independent state. The 2008 Global Integrity Report rated the West Bank as close to the bottom in its corruption ratings. Press freedom remains low; the justice system is improving but hardly competent, and whistle-blowers are forced to go to the Israeli press to expose corruption. The success that the PA has had in weakening Hamas in the West Bank has come at the expense of massive human rights violations, including torture. 

Elephant 20: Palestine would be Judenrein

Statements by PA leaders make it clear that their state of Palestine would not have any Jewish citizens allowed within. Jews whose ancestors have lived in Judea and Samaria, whether for decades or for millennia, will be legally barred from living in Palestine - an extraordinary display of state anti-semitism that is completely at odds with the Western standards that the nascent state of "Palestine" is attempting to live up to. 

Elephant 21: The Muslim world's antipathy towards Israel

Even if all of the preceding elephants could somehow vanish, the Arab world and the Muslim world remains implacably against the idea of a Jewish state in the midst of supposedly Muslim lands. Iran remains in de facto control of southern Lebanon and Gaza; ordinary Jordanians and Egyptians remain among the worst anti-semites in the Arab world. The best "peace" would be bitter cold; it will not include any real normalization, and the threat from radical Islam remains potent in Arab and Muslim states. Furthermore, any tension between Israel and any of its neighbors - Hezbollah or Hamas or Syria - would result in even the moderate Arab world solidly behind Israel's enemies, no matter what. The best peace plan would result in Israel being exactly where it is today - surrounded by enemies, with less of a land buffer, and Israel relying on US money to prompt Arab neighbors to keep radicals in check. 

That is not peace, and that is not security. 

Elephant 22: The Arab Spring

We now see how tenuous is the hold of Arab leaders on their nations. The chances of a similar upheaval in the Palestinian Arab-controlled areas is not small. What would happen to the "peace agreement" then? 

Besides that, Abbas has no successor. Poll show that if elections were held today, the new president of the PA would be a convicted terrorist now in Israeli prison. Any piece of paper signed by Abbas would be next to worthless after he is gone.

 It is true that Egypt has, despite rhetoric, kept the Camp David accords, but that is out of self-interest. The entire point of Palestinian Arab nationalism has been to destroy Israel, not to achieve statehood - so their self-interest coincides with taking any Israeli concession and then reneging on their end.

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