Surprisingly, the biggest loser in Lebanon isn't Hezbollah - it is Hamas ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Surprisingly, the biggest loser in Lebanon isn't Hezbollah - it is Hamas

Israel's decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon has caused a huge change in Lebanese politics. Hezbollah has lost its stranglehold on Lebanese politics and its almost unlimited fear for the average Lebanese citizen. But the biggest effect of the Israel's military victory may have been a secondary effect: Hamas and Islamic Jihad are losing their own military control of Palestinian camps.

Up until now, the "refugee" camps in Lebanon have been no-go zones for Lebanese security forces. As a result, they have become mini-battlegrounds between Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah. Fighting between the groups would erupt every few years but within the camps their armed forces had effective control.

Now, after Israel's victory, the Lebanese government has signaled that it wants its army to be the only armed force in Lebanon, especially south of the Litani River. Hezbollah is reluctantly going along but is bitterly opposing any full disarmament, and the Lebanese Armed Forces are skittish about enforcing this new reality against an unwilling Hezbollah that still probably outguns them.

But Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not Hezbollah, and the army can go after them. No one in Lebanon likes Hamas.

Last Friday, new Lebanese President Joseph Aoun held his first meeting of the Higher Defense Council and disarming Palestinian armed groups was the top item on the agenda. It also discussed Hamas firing its own rockets towards Israel and efforts to stop those attacks which endanger Lebanese security. Apparently Hamas is hiding three of its members that Lebanon wants to arrest for a rocket firing in March, they are believed to be in the Ain al-Hilweh camp.

During the meeting, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam spoke of “the necessity of handing over illegal weapons and not allowing Hamas or any other actor to compromise security and national stability.” Aoun also said, “No attempt to make Lebanon a platform for destabilization will be tolerated.”

While the Lebanese army still does not enter the camps, it has recently seized Palestinian weapons outside the camps.

The Lebanese people might be skittish about directly confronting Hezbollah, but they are not as concerned over disarming Hamas and the other Palestinian armed groups. The Lebanese government, for its part, sees disarming the Palestinian armed groups as a trial balloon to see how the same could eventually be done to Hezbollah.

Fatah, seeing which way the wind is blowing, is reportedly willing to disarm inside the camps.

There are also signals that Lebanon might be willing to increase Palestinian rights: allowing more access to education and jobs, and even allowing Palestinians to own their own houses with limitations. Any such move will face opposition from the Lebanese, especially Christians, wo are worried about the influence of the Palestinians and from some Palestinian self-proclaimed leaders themselves who are always concerned about anything that might effect the mythical "right of return" and who readily use Palestinians as pawns in their political power game.

This disarmament will be a major topic of discussion during a planned visit by PA president Mahmoud Abbas later this month.