Wednesday, April 24, 2019
David Singer: Trump Seems Set to Expose UN Fraud on Boundaries of Palestine
President Trump appears set to expose more than forty years of deceptive and misleading information disseminated by the United Nations (UN) in relation to the boundaries of former Palestine.
This welcome development comes with President Trump’s Special U.S Envoy Jason D. Greenblatt telling Sky News in Arabic on 19 April:
“there is no reason to use the term ‘two-state solution,” the reason being that, “every side sees it differently.”
The UN must take responsibility for creating such confusion by perpetuating intellectual and political fraud originating with its 1978 publication: "The Origins and Evolution of the Palestinian Problem" (referred to below as the Study).
Part 1 of the Study covering 1917-1947 was trashed by Israel’s Ambassador to the UN – Yehuda Blum – on 16 November:
“Even the most cursory reading of this document can leave no doubt that the means and machinery of the United Nations have been misused once again to disseminate highly selective and tendentious information under the guise, in this instance, of what purports to be a scholarly study.
The history of international conflicts, and particularly those with complex historical origins, can only be properly written by objective historians who enjoy complete academic freedom. The practice of writing and rewriting history according to the transient interests of a political body is, of course, characteristic of certain regimes. It is regrettable that the United Nations has now been drawn into that pattern.”
Blum then told the UN General Assembly on 30 November 1978:
“At the end of the first part of the publication, ostensibly dealing with the period of the Palestine Mandate, there appear a number of maps. The one map that is conspicuously absent is the official map of the Palestine Mandate which, until 1946, included Transjordan on the east bank of the Jordan River. This map was omitted because it does not fit into the PLO’s own scheme, as it would show too clearly that a Palestinian Arab state has already been in existence for 32 years on more than three quarters of the territory of mandated Palestine – that is, the state now called Jordan. That embarrassment is eliminated in this purportedly scholarly and impartial publication by the simple expedient of eliminating the map.”
The Military Perils of Ceding Israeli Control of the West Bank
In the years since the second intifada ended, no small number of retired high-ranking IDF officers and intelligence officials have argued that complete separation from the Palestinians is a strategic necessity for Israel. Gershon Hacohen, analyzing the geography, the changes in warfare—and Middle Eastern warfare in particular—since the 1990s, and recent history, argues that they are wrong:Eugene Kontorovich (WSJ): Saving U.S. Soldiers from Runaway Prosecutors (click via Google)
The withdrawal of IDF forces from the West Bank and the establishment of a Palestinian state in these territories will constitute an existential threat to Israel. The absence of an Israeli military presence in the West Bank, especially along the Jordan River, will enable the creation of a terrorist entity, à la the Gaza Strip, a stone’s throw from the Israeli hinterland. This withdrawal will box Israel into indefensible borders, especially in light of the major changes in the nature of war in recent decades that have made the astounding achievements of 1967 impossible to replicate, not to mention the stark international response [that would follow Israel’s] takeover of a sovereign state.
The deployment of international forces in the West Bank will not, [contrary to what some have argued], ensure the demilitarization of the prospective Palestinian state, let alone prevent the entry of Arab forces into its territory (with or without its consent) and/or its transformation into a springboard for terrorist attacks against Israel. . . .
Israel [now] maintains control of some 60 percent of the West Bank’s territory, . . . which is mostly empty of Palestinian population but includes all of the West Bank’s Jewish communities and IDF bases, as well as main highways, vital topographic areas, and open spaces descending eastward to the Jordan Valley. The retention of this territory constitutes the absolute minimum required for the preservation of defensible borders and meets two conditions necessary for Israel’s security: the Jordan Valley buffer zone, without which it will be impossible to prevent the rapid arming of Palestinian terrorist groups throughout the West Bank; and control of intersecting transportation arteries, which, together with control of strategic topographical sites, enables rapid deployment of IDF forces deep inside Palestinian areas.
The Trump foreign policy team scored a big victory in The Hague that will protect American soldiers from illegitimate and unaccountable foreign prosecutions. The International Criminal Court dropped a more than decade-long inquiry into alleged crimes by U.S. personnel in Afghanistan after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the U.S. would deny a visa to the court's prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda.Swiss government spending millions on anti-Israel lawfare
If the ICC were to indict U.S. servicemen, no American president would turn them over, but it would have a real effect on their lives. They would face peril in traveling to countries that have joined the ICC, including all of Western Europe. They would be international fugitives.
The court's officials are unaccountable to nationals of non-member states like the U.S. Yet they might sit in judgment of decisions made by U.S. personnel in life-or-death situations, and second-guess the judgments of professional prosecutors in democratic countries that have chosen not to join the court.
The court is currently considering whether to open an investigation into whether Israel is committing war crimes by allowing Jews to live in the West Bank. Thus the ICC would be investigating a non-member state at the behest of a non-state member, for a supposed crime that no one in the history of international criminal law has been charged with.
The Swiss government has been directly funding legal activity targeting Israel over the past year. The funding, estimated at $2 million at least, was transferred by the Swiss Foreign Ministry through its diplomatic mission in Ramallah to a series of Israeli and Palestinian organizations one year ago.
The transfer of the funds took place shortly after the Swiss government ended its support for the Ramallah-based Human Rights and International Law Secretariat over its support for the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement. Ultimately, though, the funds went toward financing similar projects.
Israel Hayom has seen the contracts, signed by both the Swiss diplomatic mission in Ramallah and six pro-Palestinian organizations in 2018. In addition, funding was allocated toward three Israeli organizations: Hamoked human rights organization, Physicians for Human Rights and Adalah – The Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel.
Among the activities financed in accordance with the contract: “building cases for the International Criminal Court” and “collecting testimonies, field inspections, holding interviews and [providing] legal assistance to victims of war crimes.”
It should be noted that according to the security doctrine formulated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the ICC is one of the greatest threats to Israel.
How Palestinian Leaders Encourage Terrorism
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's remarks at the Arab League gathering in Cairo demonstrate his preference for the well-being of terrorists over the ability of hard-working employees to put bread on the table for their families. These payments to terrorists and their families lie at the heart of Palestinian incitement to terror that drives the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Kushner: Trump Peace Plan Entails ‘Tough Compromises’ for Both Israel and Palestinians
If anyone is collectively punishing the Palestinians, it is Abbas himself. He is depriving tens of thousands of families of full salaries, thus preventing them from purchasing food for their children or paying various fees, including rent and university tuition. A Palestinian civil service employee who sends his son to university does not get a full salary. A Palestinian whose son sets out to murder a Jew is entitled to a full salary and earns more respect from Palestinian leaders.
What message is Abbas sending to his people? That those who wish to eat had better turn to terror. The families of the public employees who are now unable to pay their grocery bill and rent are now looking at the families of the terrorists with envy. They must be saying to themselves: "We are suckers because we didn't send our children to stab a Jew!" This is the education that the Palestinians leaders have been providing since 1965.
The Trump administration’s yet-to-be-unveiled Israeli-Palestinian peace plan entails “tough compromises” for both sides, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner said on Tuesday.Greenblatt: Upcoming peace plan doesn't include confederation with Jordan
Speaking at the TIME 100 Summit in New York City, Kushner noted that the proposal — which has been molded over the past two years — would be published after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan ended in early June.
President Donald Trump’s son-in-law called resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “about as tough of a problem set as you can get.”
“We’ve taken, I think, an unconventional approach,” he asserted. “We’ve studied all the different past efforts, and how they failed and why they failed. There’s been some tremendous work done by the people who’ve worked on this before us.”
“We’ve tried to do it a little bit differently,” Kushner added. “Normally they start with a process and then hope that the process leads to a resolution for something to happen. What we’ve done is the opposite…we started with a solution and then we’ll work on a process to try to get there.”
“We’ve done very extensive research and a lot of talking to a lot of the people,” he said. “We’re not trying to impose our will.”
According to Kushner, the document to be presented was “very detailed.”
The upcoming peace plan will not include a confederation between Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority, Special Representative for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt tweeted Wednesday.PM: Name new Golan Heights community after Trump
"King Abdullah and Jordan are strong US allies," he tweeted. "Rumors that our peace vision includes a confederation between Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, or that the vision contemplates making Jordan the homeland for Palestinians, are incorrect. Please don’t spread rumors."
It is not the first time that the administration clarified that these rumors are false. On October 2018, senior administration officials told The Jerusalem Post that the plan would not include a confederation with Jordan.
Over the past summer, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas claimed that the US team had floated the idea directly with him, and suggested the proposal was at the heart of their peace plan. But US officials told the Post at that point that the administration has not even considered a confederation since the very beginning of their deliberative process over a year ago.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he wants to name a new settlement in the Golan Heights after U.S. President Donald Trump in a show of gratitude for the White House’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the territory.
On a tour of the Golan Heights, Tuesday, Netanyahu said there was a “need to express our appreciation” to the president and that he would advance “a resolution calling for a new community on the Golan Heights named after President Donald J. Trump.”
In a video statement, he said, “All Israelis were deeply moved when President Trump made his historic decision.”
He added that, after the Passover holiday, he would “bring to the government a resolution calling for a new community on the Golan Heights named after President Donald J. Trump.”
Last month, Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty over the territory it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War.
Israel annexed the mountain plateau in 1981, in a move unrecognized by most of the international community. An estimated 20,000 Israelis live in communities in the Golan Heights, which most of the international community considers illegal.
Israel has said separately that, in appreciation of the U.S. president, it intends to name a proposed train station near Jerusalem’s Western Wall after him.
Therefore, after the Passover holiday, I intend to bring to the government a resolution calling for a new community on the Golan Heights named after President Donald J. Trump. pic.twitter.com/S6UjbhKitT
— PM of Israel (@IsraeliPM) April 23, 2019
Netanyahu Bodyguard Seen Carrying State-of-the-Art Chinese Anti-Drone Rifle
One of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bodyguards was seen on video Tuesday carrying an unusual weapon later identified as an anti-drone rifle.
The video, published by Hebrew news site Mako, shows Netanyahu and his entourage in the town of Caesarea, and the weapon in question is only visible for a few moments. It is a large, black, rifle-like weapon with an abnormally wide rectangular barrel.
There was initially confusion in the Israeli media as to the identity of the weapon, which has never been viewed being carried by one of Netanyahu’s guards before.
According to Mako, it was eventually determined that the weapon was a Chinese-made rifle specifically used to neutralize small drones.
The Chinese origin of the rifle may not be a coincidence, as Chinese-made drones are quite popular in the Middle East and thus constitute the most likely threat.
In addition, the weapon is relatively light and highly portable, giving it an advantage over other anti-drone defense systems.
Netanyahu's bodyguards now carry a new anti-drone electronic warfare weapon. Probably one made by the Chinese firm Hikivision. pic.twitter.com/53xqRQHGDL
— neontaster (@neontaster) April 23, 2019
DePaul University Professor Attracts Criticism Over Op-Ed Encouraging Israeli Annexation of West Bank
A professor of ethics and philosophy at DePaul University in Chicago is facing criticism for supporting Israeli annexation of the West Bank and describing Palestinians in terms that have been decried as discriminatory.MKs call on Israel to recognize Armenian Genocide
In an op-ed published last Tuesday by The Federalist, Jason Hill argued that “Israel has the moral right to annex all of the West Bank,” as well as retake the Gaza Strip from Hamas.
He further argued that “the Palestinian people” have suffered a decline due to “their willful ideological malfeasance,” pointing to “Fatah and Hamas’s genocidal aspirations toward Israel and universal Jewry and, in the case of Hamas, of a global caliphate.”
“Given the voting patterns of Palestinians — towards Islamicism and terrorist organizations for the most part — … a strong argument can and ought to be made to strip Palestinians of their right to vote — period.”
“No moral or political distinctions must be made between Fatah, Hamas, and the people who elect and or support them,” he added. “Therefore, only a policy of radical containment or expulsion remains a viable option.”
The article attracted controversy shortly after publication, the student-run DePaulia newspaper reported, with a Palestinian DePaul student claiming that it called for “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians.
Lawmakers called on Israel to recognize the Armenian Genocide on its annual memorial day Wednesday.Netanyahu congratulates new Ukraine president, invites him to Israel
“The time has come for Israel to officially recognize the genocide of the Armenian people and stop giving in to Turkish pressure," said Blue and White co-leader Yair Lapid.
“We have a moral and historic responsibility to remember the genocide and to stand behind ‘never again,’” he added on Twitter. “This is true for every nation.”
Lapid said he plans to re-propose his bill to recognize the Armenian Genocide and expressed hope the coalition will support it.
The Armenian Genocide began in 1915, with the Ottoman Empire slaughtering 1.5 million Armenians. As of April 2019, 30 governments and parliaments officially recognize the genocide.
Meretz MK Mossi Raz tweeted: “Today we mark the holocaust of the Armenian people. A third of them were murdered by the Turks. The time has come for Israel to officially recognize the Armenian genocide.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Ukraine’s newly elected president Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday and invited him to visit Israel.Henkin family files $360m. lawsuit against Iran, Syria for parents' murder
Netanyahu “congratulated him for his victory, expressed his hope to continue the good relations between our countries and invited him to visit Israel,” according to Israel’s Ambassador to Ukraine Joel Lion.
“In another phone call, Netanyahu thanked outgoing Ukrainian President Poroshenko for his friendship toward the State of Israel and the Jewish people,” he added.
Israel and Ukraine in January signed a free trade agreement as Poroshenko visited Jerusalem.
Zelensky, a 41-year-old comic with no political experience, was elected Sunday on promises of change but has generally stood by the Western-oriented course of defeated president Poroshenko. Zelensky hailed his victory as a sign to people in post-Soviet nations that “everything is possible,” but he also has said he wants better relations with Russia.
The children of Eitam and Naama Henkin filed a $360 million civil damages wrongful death lawsuit against Iran and Syria on Wednesday for their alleged involvement in the murder of their parents in a West Bank terrorist attack in 2015.IDF demolishes home of terrorist who killed father of 12 and soldier
The civil case, filed in a federal court in Washington, comes three years after the Palestinian terrorists who murdered the Henkins had been sentenced to life in prison by an Israeli military court in 2016.
It also comes just as the US campaign to pressure Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is heating up. The IRGC is often credited with supporting terrorist groups throughout the region, including Hamas.
According to the civil lawsuit, on the evening of October 1, 2015, American-Israeli Eitam Henkin, his wife Naama and their four minor children were driving in the West Bank.
At one point, their car was overtaken by another vehicle driven by three Palestinian gunmen.
The three men, noted the complaint, have admitted that they were members of Hamas and that they intended to kidnap a Jewish resident of the West Bank. This is a tactic used by terrorists to obtain the release of imprisoned terrorists.
However, instead of a kidnapping, one of the terrorists leaned out of the window as they overtook the Henkins’ car and sprayed automatic gunfire at the family, wounding Eitam, who stopped the car.
The IDF early Wednesday morning, together with the Border Police and the Civil Administration, demolished the home of the terrorist who carried out a shooting attack near Ariel, killing a solider and a father of 12, according to the IDF Spokesperson.
IDF forces entered the Al-Zawiya neighborhood near Bethlehem, where Omar Abu Lila's home is located, and were met with clashes. However, by 2:30 a.m., Palestinian sources were reporting that the home demolition was complete.
Photos taken by social networks showed an IDF bulldozer moving through the village. Central Command Commander Maj.-Gen. Nadav Padan signed an order to demolish Abu Lila's home.
The terrorist,19, was identified after an intelligence and operational effort by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), the Special Patrol Unit, and the IDF on March 19. He was killed during his attempted arrest by the IDF in a fire exchange.
Looking forward to your report on this boy's death @intifada @AliAbunimah! https://t.co/W8XlhCuBaq
— Ozraeli Dave (((דיויד לנג))) (@Israellycool) April 23, 2019
Hamas arrests Gaza comedian who protested economic hardship
Hamas security forces have arrested Palestinian comedian Hussam Khalaf, who is known for his criticism of Hamas and Qatar, sources in the Gaza Strip confirmed on Wednesday.Where’s the solidarity for Sri Lanka’s Christians?
The sources said that Khalaf, a resident of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, was arrested on Tuesday as he was walking on the streets of Rafah with a friend.
The comedian’s brother, Hassan, said that Hamas security officers walked up to Hussam and told him that their commander wants to talk with him.
“They took him in their car and since then we haven’t heard from him,” the brother said.
Nicknamed “The Brain,” Khalaf is known for criticizing the political and economic conditions in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip through songs inspired by famous Egyptian singers. He has been critical, among other things, of new taxes imposed by Hamas on residents of the Gaza Strip and the high rate of unemployment there.
The reaction of some to the devastating Islamist-inspired terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday is puzzling to say the least.
Following the mosque massacres in Christchurch, political figures across the Western world did not hesitate in accurately describing what they were – white-supremacist terrorist attacks on Muslims in their places of worship during Friday prayers.
In the aftermath of Christchurch, Hillary Clinton expressed her solidarity with the global Muslim community – the Ummah – and said ‘we must continue to fight the perpetuation and normalisation of Islamophobia and racism in all its forms’. Former US president Barack Obama tweeted that himself and his wife Michelle were grieving with the people of New Zealand and the ‘Muslim community’. Our own prime minister, Theresa May, correctly labelled Christchurch as a ‘horrifying terrorist attack’.
Now, contrast this with the language used by the same three figures following the coordinated series of Islamist-inspired terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka. Affectionate expressions of solidarity with persecuted Christian communities have been missing. The Christians killed in their own churches have been referred to by Clinton and Obama as ‘Easter worshippers’. Despite the clearly sophisticated, well-planned nature of the terrorist attacks, which very much had the aim of killing a large number of Christians, the British PM – a vicar’s daughter – referred to them as ‘acts of violence’.
The differences in tone and nature between the condemnations of the Christchurch and Sri Lanka terrorist attacks are striking. After Christchurch, there was no hesitation about stating the religious backgrounds of the victims and directing emotion and affection towards Muslim communities. Politicians took no issue with categorising the events in Christchurch as terrorism.
In contrast, the words ‘terrorism’ and ‘Christianity’, along with their associated terms, have so far failed to feature in much of the reaction to the attacks in Sri Lanka.
The barbarism in Sri Lanka is a reminder of the grave threat posed by Islamist extremism. We have to stop tip-toeing around this issue. Let’s call it what it is: an Islamic supremacist movement that is the most dangerous hate group in the world right now.
— spiked (@spikedonline) April 24, 2019
Brendan O’Neill on Sky pic.twitter.com/Jx5NstBVCn
This photo of Muslim Brotherhood’s top scholar Sheikh Qaradawi, and leader of the radical Islamist group of #SriLanka sums up the link between #Islamism and #terrorism.
— Nervana Mahmoud (@Nervana_1) April 23, 2019
From A to Z.
H/T @HSajwanization https://t.co/mzCd7tovxw
With UN Supervision, Lebanon Is Ready to Draw Maritime Borders With Israel
Lebanon announced on Tuesday that it is prepared to draw its maritime border with Israel under UN supervision, reported Lebanese media.Egypt voters approve referendum extending president's rule
“We are ready to draw Lebanon’s maritime borders and those of the Exclusive Economic Zone using the same procedure that was used to draw the Blue Line under the supervision of the United Nations,” Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Stefano Del Col, head of the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon peacekeeping group, reported the Xinhua agency, citing Lebanon’s National News Agency.
The two nations claim more than 300 square miles of waters, in which disputes over the past year centered on gas fields in the conflict area.
Lebanon warned its neighbors last month not to use a planned gas pipeline that will go from Israel to the European Union, citing the maritime disagreement with Israel.
Voters in Egypt approved constitutional amendments allowing President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to remain in power until 2030, election officials said Tuesday, a move that critics fear will cement his authoritarian rule eight years after a pro-democracy uprising.Russia to deliver S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey in July
El-Sissi led the military overthrow of an elected but divisive Islamist president amid mass protests against his rule in 2013 and has since presided over an unprecedented crackdown on dissent. Thousands of people, including many pro-democracy activists, have been arrested by authorities. Freedoms won in 2011, when mass protests ended President Hosni Mubarak’s nearly three-decade rule, have been rolled back.
Lasheen Ibrahim, the head of Egypt’s National Election Authority, told a news conference the amendments to the 2014 constitution were approved with 88.83% voting in favor, with a turnout of 44.33%. The nationwide referendum took place over three days, from Saturday through Monday to maximize turnout. Egypt has some 61 million eligible voters.
In his first public comments on the amendments, el-Sissi thanked the Egyptian people for voting.
“Wonderful scene done by Egyptians who took part in the referendum… will be written down in our nation’s historical record,” he tweeted minutes after Ibrahim announced the results.
Russia will start delivering its S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey in July, the head of Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport said, according to Interfax news agency.Saudi Arabia beheads 37, mostly Shiites, for terrorist crimes
"Everything has been already discussed and agreed," Alexander Mikheev told Interfax.
The United States has threatened to impose sanctions if Turkey seals its S-400 deal with Russia. Ankara has said its purchase should not trigger sanctions as Turkey is not an adversary of Washington and remains committed to the NATO alliance.
The top uniformed officer in NATO and the head of American forces in Europe, General Curtis Scaparrotti warned in March during testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee that Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 presents a problem to all American aircraft, including the stealth F-35 fighter jet.
“My best military advice would be that we don’t then follow through with the F-35 — flying it or working with an ally that is working with Russian systems, particularly air defense systems, with one of our most advanced technological capabilities,” Scaparrotti was quoted by Defense News as saying.
Saudi Arabia on Tuesday beheaded 37 Saudi citizens, most of them minority Shiites, in a mass execution across the country for alleged terrorism-related crimes. It also publicly pinned the executed body and severed head of a convicted Sunni extremist to a pole as a warning to others.
The executions were likely to stoke further regional and sectarian tensions between rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Saudi dissident Ali Al-Ahmed, who runs the Gulf Institute in Washington, identified 34 of those executed as Shiites based on the names announced by the Interior Ministry.
“This is the largest mass execution of Shiites in the kingdom’s history,” he said.
Amnesty International also confirmed the majority of those executed were Shiite men. The rights group said they were convicted “after sham trials” that relied on confessions extracted through torture.
It marked the largest number of executions in a single day in Saudi Arabia since Jan. 2, 2016, when the kingdom executed 47 people for terrorism-related crimes in what was the largest mass execution carried out by Saudi authorities since 1980.
Among those executed three years ago were four Shiites, including prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, whose death sparked protests from Pakistan to Iran and the ransacking of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Saudi-Iran ties have not recovered and the embassy remains shuttered.
2006: HRW’s @KenRoth: In reformed UNHRC, “countries with poor human rights records like Saudi Arabia will never have a seat again.”
— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) April 24, 2019
2006: #SaudiArabia wins 3-year term
2009: #SaudiArabia reelected
2013: #SaudiArabia reelected
2016: #SaudiArabia reelectedhttps://t.co/2hig9dBQu0 pic.twitter.com/H5SbG16wNT
Increased U.S. Sanctions Will Present Iran’s Leaders with a Choice between Capitulation and Suicide
On May 2, the White House will cease granting sanction waivers to eight countries that have until now been allowed to purchase oil from the Islamic Republic without penalty. This measure, combined with the series of economic steps taken by the Trump administration, could severely erode Tehran’s ability to export terror and bloodshed, writes Mohammed Alyahya:
[One] point often ignored is the value sanctions have in eroding the regime’s resources. . . . Iran’s extensive regional proxy network—comprising several dozen militias in Iraq and Syria, two in Bahrain, one in Yemen, and its flagship proxy in Lebanon, Hizballah—relies on Iranian funding to sustain operations and buy loyalty. The regime cannot fund these groups with its own currency. It needs U.S. dollars, and because of sanctions, it does not have enough. . . .
This leaves the Iranian regime with two choices. The first: to capitulate to the Trump administration’s list of twelve demands, many of which would strip the revolutionary regime of its raison d’être, and channel the regime’s resources exclusively toward the betterment of the people of Iran. The second: to provoke conventional war in the Gulf or with Israel, an option that would put the Iranian regime at an extreme disadvantage.
With poor conventional military capabilities, Iran does not stand a chance in an all-out conventional war with its well-equipped Arab neighbors, let alone with the U.S. . . . Iran could attack Israel rather than its Gulf opponents in an effort to reshuffle the regional cards. . . . Although Israel [in that eventuality] would likely incur a level of damage and loss of life it has not witnessed since 1948, Iran’s most dependable ally, Hizballah, will surely take a significant mauling in such a war. While it may not be fully destroyed, it is unlikely that Hizballah would be able to rebuild as quickly and at the same scale as after the 2006 war to once again pose a threat to Israel, which would undermine Iranian deterrence.
