Seth Mandel: What Iran Is Really Asking of Trump
So Trump’s strategy is to keep talking and use the embargo as leverage to get a better deal. Iran’s strategy isn’t a secret either. It’s to allow Trump to think he’s close to a deal in order to for him to force Israel to stop beating up Iranian forces in Lebanon.JPost Editorial: Forcing the IDF to leave Lebanon is a betrayal of Israel's citizens
Each side thinks it’s playing the other, while the soldiers still dying are mostly Israelis.
Of course, the antiwar crowd has an answer at the ready: Israel can stop its pursuit of Hezbollah in Lebanon! Except, the reason Israel is in Lebanon is because Israel not being in Lebanon doesn’t prevent Israelis from being killed by Hezbollah.
On a simpler level, here’s what just happened: Iran announced that a specific part of the war—namely, Hezbollah in Lebanon—was of utmost importance to it. In response, Trump conceded that part of the war as a down payment on renewed negotiations, without getting anything in return.
Why would Iran think it’s doing anything other than winning at the moment?
There is another aspect to this refreshing bit of honesty from the Iranians. They have admitted that Hezbollah is Iran and Iran is Hezbollah. Of course, we knew this. But it’s better to have Iran openly admit it in a way that makes it impossible for its numerous American supporters to pretend otherwise.
Thus, we have three powers in Lebanon: Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. Only two of those are arguing for a permanent right to control the country: Lebanon and Iran. So which of those two has a stronger case to control Lebanon?
It’s not a trick question. Iran is confirming, yet again, that the Western narrative of this conflict is the correct one. Iran is an occupying power in Lebanon and elsewhere, and the deaths in Lebanon are indeed Iran’s responsibility.
It is also confirming something else. Any belief that Iran can be merely contained while leaving its threats intact is shortsighted in the extreme. The entire region was blown open by October 7, which was the work of one of Iran’s militias, Hamas. The fact that Iran is asking to preserve the ability to have its proxies repeat the conflagration is proof that the choice before Trump is war now, in which the U.S. has a distinct advantage, or war later, when the enemy has rearmed. The president should choose wisely.
Trading Israeli lives for a few more days of quietFrance bans Israel from defense exhibition, limits Israeli companies to showing defensive weapons
Accepting another extension under these conditions would mean trading Israeli lives for a few more days of quiet, which is not truly quiet at all.
The collapse of the ceasefire extension was inevitable. Israel cannot maintain a truce with an organization whose purpose remains its destruction. The IDF’s recent maneuvers, including the capture of strategic high ground such as Beaufort Castle, reflect a clear military need to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in a lasting way.
Those hard-won gains must not be bargained away for another fragile agreement that Hezbollah will violate as soon as it suits its interests.
The airstrikes in Dahiyeh must be relentless and unrestricted. That is where decisions are made, where precision weapons are stored, and where Hezbollah’s Iranian-backed leadership feels most secure.
Israel does not need an extension of a failed policy. It needs the restoration of real deterrence. That deterrence will not come through gradual de-escalation, American-brokered road maps, or futile negotiations with Iran. It can only come through the systematic destruction of Hezbollah’s will and capacity to fight.
The time for begging for permission to defend Israel is over. The government must resist international pressure to preserve the ghost of a ceasefire and give the IDF the mandate to finish the job. Anything less would be a betrayal of the citizens still huddled in shelters, waiting for a government that values their lives more than its standing in Washington.
The ceasefire is dead. Israel should stop pretending otherwise before more Israelis pay the price for this diplomatic fiction.
The French government barred Israel's official participation in the June EUROSATORY defense exhibition, according to a Monday statement by the Israeli Defense Ministry, with its French counterpart saying that Israel was limited to defensive platforms.
The Israeli government and the ministry will be unable to participate in the exhibition or establish a national pavilion. Israeli defense firms would be prevented from displaying offensive weapon systems.
The French Defense Ministry said that exhibits would be limited to air defense and anti-missile defense equipment, and that Israeli exhibitors would be able to display their wares if they complied with that framework.
"The French decision encompasses: a ban on government representatives attending the exhibition; a ban on opening an Israeli national pavilion; and a restriction limiting Israeli defense industries to displaying air defense products only, with offensive systems explicitly excluded," said a statement by the Israel Ministry of Defense.
"This policy is applied selectively and discriminatorily relative to other participating nations - in direct violation of the established norms governing international defense exhibition," it added.
Participating companies confirm their attendance months in advance and despite the ban on the Israeli government and offensive weapons, many Israeli companies are expected to have their own smaller private desks to present their systems. Defense & Tech by The Jerusalem Post understands that among the Israeli companies still planning to attend with their original lineups including Elbit Systems, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. Dozens of Israeli companies acquired by the American defense conglomerate Ondas will also participate at the expo.
According to the French ministry, EuroSatory organizers have been informed of the decision and are expected to enforce the restrictions.
The Israeli Defense Ministry decried the restrictions at one of the world’s largest defense industry exhibitions as a selectively applied and discriminatory policy, “in direct violation of the established norms governing international defense exhibition,' said the ministry.”
"This is a disgraceful decision, one that reeks of political and commercial calculation, and regrettably, it comes as no surprise. It fits a deeply troubling pattern in French conduct in recent years - a pattern that has consistently placed France on the wrong side of history,” said the ministry. “France, which prides itself on the values of liberty and democracy, is acting in direct contradiction to the principles it claims to uphold. It is hiding behind a pretense of political justification to exclude Israeli offensive defense systems from an international forum - systems that have proven far superior to their French counterparts, and that have demonstrated exceptional precision and effectiveness against terrorist organizations and regimes threatening not only Israel, but regional and global stability at large.”
Paris' desire to undermine Jerusalem as a competitor
Eurosatory, one of the world’s largest defense exhibitions, takes place on the outskirts of Paris every two years.
During the last Eurosatory in 2024, France prevented the attendance of dozens of Israeli defense companies. At the time, the French Defense Ministry said that “the conditions are no longer right to host Israeli companies at the Paris show, given that the French president is calling for the cessation of IDF operations in Rafah.” The move was overturned by the Paris Commercial Court, which found that the order would lead to discrimination, but many Israeli companies decided not to attend the show.

















