Seth Mandel: The Danger Isn’t That the Cease-fire Will Collapse, But That It Will Become Permanent
The collective armies of Gaza understand that they can stretch out this phase of the process by stalling on the return of the final hostage’s body. That is why Israel is considering moving on to the second phase anyway—not because its leaders don’t care about the remains of Ran Gvili but because waiting for Hamas to trigger the second stage will itself incentivize Hamas to hold on to the body in perpetuity.JPost Editorial: The West refuses to call out Hamas's blatant manipulation of public opinion
Refusing to advance to the second stage without the last hostage remains would be a significant strategic error on Israel’s part. For now, Hamas is waiting to see if it can bait Israel into exactly this error.
The pressure should be on Hamas of course, but also on the Arab states that have signed on to back the fulfillment of this deal. And on Europe, too, for that matter. Any time Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron move from pretending to care about Palestinians to actually caring about Palestinians, it will be welcome.
No one, except perhaps Hamas, wants this state of affairs to remain permanent.
At least that’s what they say. Let’s remember that after the Six-Day War, Israel was prepared to trade back the territories but the Arab states said, famously: no peace with Israel, no recognition of it, no negotiations with it.
Why were they so adamant? Because although they had lost the war against Israel, the Arab states received a consolation prize: The Palestinians were someone else’s problem now. Egypt was glad to be rid of Gaza and Jordan gave up its claims on the West Bank in the 1980s. The Palestinian Arabs could once again be used by the Arab world to weaken Israel with a permanent insurgency, unless by some miracle the Palestinians pulled themselves together enough for statehood.
The Arab states—and the wider Muslim world—are not exactly champing at the bit to contribute to the Gaza stabilization force that would be needed if Hamas were to be disarmed and replaced. Do they want Palestinian life rebuilt and the Palestinians given a chance to be free of Hamas’s totalitarian terror? Because from a certain angle, it’s starting to look as if maybe those Arab states would rather Gaza be split into an indefinite Israeli military occupation and a Hamas-controlled enclave. Perhaps the Arab world is not yet ready to contemplate the end of its conflict with Israel.
The Palestinian refugee crisis? Israel’s fault – never mind that it was Arab leaders who rejected partition and then launched a war to destroy the Jewish state.UNRWA is beyond repair, so it's time to move on
Hunger in Gaza? Not because Hamas brutally attacked Israel and triggered a war. Not because it hides infant formula to inflame a crisis. Instead, blame defaults to Israel, the cruel party in a narrative shaped long before this war began.
For centuries, people were conditioned to believe in Jewish cruelty – the grotesque libels of killing children and using their blood for matzot. Old habits die hard. The vocabulary changes, but the instinct remains: Accuse the Jews first, believe the worst about them, and then investigate later, if at all.
Once in a long while, however, someone from within Arab society, such as Alkhatib, who has lost 31 family members in Gaza since the October 7 massacre, dares to speak up.
He exposed a truth many in the West find inconvenient: Hamas manipulates public opinion while showing utter indifference to the suffering of its own people. If that suffering helps advance its ultimate goal of Israel’s disappearance – and if Western “useful idiots” assist along the way – then so be it.
One final point deserves attention. Alkhatib said the hidden baby formula was stored in warehouses belonging to the Gaza Ministry of Health, the same ministry whose casualty figures are treated as indisputable fact by much of the international media. If that ministry conceals life-saving supplies to manufacture famine, why should anyone unquestioningly trust its numbers or its claims?
The answer should be obvious. The tragedy is that, for many, it still isn’t.
Moving from axing UNRWA to a constructive post-Gaza-war framework, the “international community” must focus on rebuilding Palestinian society – free from rank corruption, destructive indoctrination, coddling of terrorism, and the overall moral rot that for too long has contaminated international politics relating to Palestinians.
First and foremost, this means elimination of refugee status for all Palestinians living in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria. “Refugee camps” must be transformed into regular neighborhoods or towns, and their residents redefined as, well, local residents – not refugees.
Second is that meaningful curriculum overhauls should be undertaken in Palestinian educational institutions from kindergarten through university, eliminating antisemitic and anti-Israel materials, and the adoption of population-wide deradicalization initiatives.
Third is that action toward total demilitarization of Palestinian areas should be taken (excepting lightly armed police forces), as envisioned and promised in the Oslo Accords 30 years ago – but never pursued seriously.
Alas, Israel has little confidence in the ability of anybody to swiftly rebuild Palestinian society or “reform” Palestinian government, unless the Palestinians themselves wish to do so.
Throwing more aid money at the Palestinians certainly won’t help, just as it has not done the trick over the past thirty years since the Oslo Accords were signed.
Despite tens of billions of dollars and euros invested in the Palestinian Authority by the “international community,” there is no democracy, no rule of law, no transparency, no sustainability, no investment in economic stability, and no peace education in the PA. Not a single refugee has been resettled. Not one hospital has been built in the West Bank: only one sewage treatment plant.
But there is plenty of nepotism and corruption, “pay-for-slay” handouts (meaning the incentivizing and rewarding of terrorism against Israel), violent propagandizing against Israel (including support for Hamas’s October 7 invasion and massacres), and diplomatic assault on Israel in every possible international forum.
As for Western “security assistance” to the PA, this has produced mixed results, at best. The authority does not effectively control key terrorist nodes in the West Bank, and its security personnel have repeatedly participated in or facilitated terror attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers. PA security personnel account for 12% of all Palestinian terrorists held by Israel.
In short, the overall return on Western investment in Palestinian maturity and independence is abysmal. Real reform of Palestinian government and society is going to be a long, arduous process and must involve penalty and penance, not just reward and recognition.
Which is why it is asinine of France, Britain, Canada, and others to resurrect illusions of imminent Palestinian statehood. Regrettably, their gambit is a recipe for devastating disappointment and protracted conflict.












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