Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News

Friday, January 10, 2025

Airstrikes today in Yemen show that Israel is the designated "bad cop " to get dirty work done with approval by US and UK

Israel's air force, in coordination with the United States and Britain, conducted airstrikes in Yemen targeting a Houthi power station and two ports used by the Iran-backed group, the military confirmed on Friday.

The targets included military infrastructure sites at Hezyaz power station, and military infrastructure in the Hodeidah and Ras Issa ports on the Western coast.

An informed source told The Jerusalem Post, that during US Central Command (CENTCOM) deputy commander Brad Cooper's most recent visit to Israel, it was discussed that Jerusalem and Washington would coordinate efforts in handling the Houthi threat.

So which targets were hit by Israel and which by the US and Britain?

According to the source, the "work" will be "split" between Israel and the coalition is relatively clear. The coalition will allegedly attack weapons facilities, control and command bases, and underground places, while Israel strikes the Houthi's economic facilities - which have military and civilian use such as ports, airports, power plants, etc.

Clearly, the British and Americans have no legal or moral issue with attacking dual-use civilian/military infrastructure. But they have political issues with it, concerned that domestic protesters will cause them problems if they hit a target that could be spun as civilian.

Israel is the designated bad cop. And when the protests happen, the allies can say, "No, it wasn't us - it was the Israelis."

This is Israel's role, whether they like it or not. The West tacitly approves Israel's actions but wants to keep public distance from them. And that allows them to throw Israel under the bus to save their own political careers if necessary.

The thinking is that the world hates Israel already so why not take advantage of it?

It is cynical and unfair. But it also allows Israel to do what the West doesn't have the cojones to do themselves.

I just hope that the Israelis are getting something concrete in return for playing that role.

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

The Lancet just published an article claiming that the Gaza health ministry figures n deaths in Gaza is undercounted; as of the date of the analysis when it said there were 40,000 deaths the paper estimates over 64,000. Here is the introduction:

Accurate mortality estimates help quantify and memorialise the impact of war. We used multiple data sources to estimate deaths due to traumatic injury in the Gaza Strip between Oct 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024.

We used a three-list capture–recapture analysis using data from Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH) hospital lists, an MoH online survey, and social media obituaries. After imputing missing values, we fitted alternative generalised linear models to the three lists' overlap structure, with each model representing different possible dependencies among lists and including covariates predictive of the probability of being listed; we averaged the models to estimate the true number of deaths in the analysis period (Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024). Resulting annualised age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates were compared with mortality in 2022.

We estimated 64 260 deaths (95% CI 55 298–78 525) due to traumatic injury during the study period, suggesting the Palestinian MoH under-reported mortality by 41%.

The "capture-recapture" analysis that is the heart of the statistics-heavy paper works like this. The authors took three different lists of victims - the hospital records, the online survey, and those found on social media obituaries. Between the three they found very little overlap:

Only about 15% of people in hospital records appeared on other lists

About 33% of people in the survey appeared on other lists

About 54% of people in social media appeared on other lists

They used these overlap patterns to estimate how many deaths likely occurred but weren't captured on any list. A low overlap, they say, indicates that each list is a gross undercount of the total. Based on their analysis of the low overlap, they suggest that the three lists combined only captured about 45% of total deaths. This led to their estimate of about 64,260 total deaths during the study period, compared to the official count at the time of about 37,900 (which included unnamed people.)

The assumptions behind this methodology are wrong.

The reason that there is very little overlap between the hospital lists and survey lists is because the entire purpose of the survey was to supplement the hospital list. The survey list is designed to capture names not on the hospital lists. The health ministry Capture-recapture analysis is based on the assumption that the lists are independent, when in fact they are supposed to be exclusive - the Ministry of Health issues statistics based on both lists combined and would attempt to remove duplicates.

In this case, the capture-recapture analysis is not an appropriate methodology because the two dominant data sets are largely meant to be exclusive of each other, not representative samples of the total deaths.

The third list, from multiple social media sources like Instagram, is not a random sample of the deceased at all. It could be updated by anyone anywhere in the world. It is self-defining and impossible to verify. Using it as an input to the analysis is questionable at best. To give it the same weight as the other two sources for the purposes of statistical analysis and estimations based on low overlap is almost certainly a poor assumption.

There are other potential problems. The survey form does not distinguish between "martyrs" and "missing persons," and many of those assumed to be dead may in fact be missing - the ICRC has managed to reunite thousands of people thought to be missing.

Altogether, this is a case where the authors try to misdirect the reader with lots of statistical formulas but their basic assumptions that the statistics are based on are worthless to begin with.

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

When anti-Israel groups hijack causes and organizations, they will eventually destroy them

American Historical Association members attending the group’s annual conference voted 428 to 88 Sunday to approve a resolution opposing “scholasticide” in Gaza and the U.S. government’s funding of Israel’s war.

"Scholasicide" is one of those words made up specifically to come up with a new way to slander Israel. In this case, it was made up by a person who was a PLO official before Oslo who then became an academic at Oxford. It appears to have been used only to attack Israel.

There are a number of these "-cide" terms that are used virtually only against Israel, like "domicide," "urbicide," "memoricide," and "politicide." Their very existence is based on the lie that Israel intends to erase Palestinian existence in every possible dimension. Now, one of these terms whose very existence is based on antisemitism is enshrined by an association whose field should be dependent on accuracy and impartiality.

I just made a cartoon about how this dynamic works.

We've noted previously that Palestinians and their groupies love to hijack any cause just to turn it into a vehicle to attack Israel. Anti-racism, climate, oceans, women's rights, children's rights...the list goes on. Palestinians join world bodies tackling real problems just so they can make speeches and write papers about how Israel is the enemy of every social movement.

No doubt this irritates people who are dedicated to their causes. They are willing to tolerate it because they think that the alternative - being harassed forever - is not worth the hassle.

But one comment about the AHA resolution struck me as being true, and accurate for all of these causes.

“If this vote succeeds, it will destroy the A.H.A.,” Jeffrey Herf, a professor emeritus of history at the University of Maryland and one of five historians who spoke against the resolution on Sunday, told me. “At that point, public opinion and political actors outside the academy will say that the A.H.A. has become a political organization and they’ll completely lose trust in us. Why should we believe anything they have to say about slavery or the New Deal or anything else?”

Already the Middle East Studies Association lost several schools as affiliates when they were taken over by Israel haters. A number of others dropped their association with the American Anthropological Association after their own July 2023 anti-Israel resolution. Alternative academic groups are forming.

The single-minded obsession with Israel, which is today's flavor of antisemitism. doesn't just hurt Jews. It hurts everyone who adopts its stances.

Any good that is being done in academia, in the field of social justice, and in international forums to combat problems that transcend national boundaries is endangered by the Jew-haters who try to make every cause about Israel. Unfortunately, those fields and forums themselves are so filled with the modern antisemites that anyone pointing this out would be threatened with expulsion from the group.

The issue will come to a head in all these fields as each one must make a decision to prioritize their reasons for existing or their being taken over by a special interest group that happens to be obsessed with Jews.

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

01/09 Links Pt2: Andrew Pessin: Israel Breathes. World Condemns; I accuse: An open letter to Pope Francis; Erin Molan: A defender of Israel’s legacy

From Ian:

‘A Palestinian state is like committing suicide’

For Israel to allow the creation of a Palestinian state would be tantamount to national suicide, Knesset member Ariel Kallner (Likud) told JNS on Thursday.

“And we are finished with committing suicide,” he added.

Kallner’s remarks came shortly after a poll found that for the first time in nearly 18 years, a majority of Israeli Jews oppose the two-state solution.

“I would have been surprised if the poll results were different after our experience with the Palestinian state in Gaza,” said Kallner. “Prior to Oct. 7, 2023, Gaza was a Palestinian state, and we know what the result was for southern Israel, the ensuing difficult war and the challenging times we now live in,” he said.

“We know 80% of the people living in the Palestinian pseudo-state in Judea and Samaria support Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre. No one in the so-called moderate Palestinian Authority—who present themselves as moderate in contrast to Hamas—no one, not one official, condemned the massacre,” he added.

Of the 804 Jews polled in the “Swords of Iron Survey Results—December 2024” survey by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), 64% opposed the creation of a Palestinian state “under any condition,” compared to 23% who said they supported it “under certain conditions.” The remaining 13% said they didn’t know. Among the 205 Arabs polled, the distribution was 12%, 59% and 29% respectively.

Within the total sample of 1,009 Jewish and Arab respondents, 54% opposed the creation of any Palestinian state under any circumstances compared to 30% who supported it.

The lesson of Oct. 7
Religious Zionism Party MK Simcha Rothman, on the other hand, expressed surprise at the survey results.

“This number surprises me because it is way lower than what I have seen in other surveys, which show even higher objection to a Palestinian state,” he told JNS on Thursday. “The real number I believe is more like 70% or 80%, and those who support a Palestinian state are mostly Arabs in Israel,” he said.

“I think it was always the case, and definitely after Oct. 7 people understood what happens when you allow the supporters of terror to have a state near your borders,” he continued.

“As for the Arabs who support that state, they either don’t see it as a threat to our country, don’t understand the threat, or some of them support terror, sadly. We know that the elected representation of the Arab population in Israel is not condemning Hamas and is not condemning terror; some of them even openly support Hamas,” Rothman said.

Seth Mandel: Labour Pains

Therefore, you must be thinking, Hotovely was added to a long line of ambassadors whose expulsion is being debated by the governing Labour party, right? After all, by my count there are some 180 foreign diplomatic missions in London alone. Surely the seven-bedroom embassy/residence of North Korea in the leafy London suburbs is cause for some discomfort within the party of the UK left?

It is the position of the government of the United Kingdom that Ukraine exist, yes? So what of the two-state solution for Russia and Ukraine? Moscow’s ambassador appears to be in no danger of expulsion over it, even though Russia has recently expelled British diplomats.

Nor do the sensitive men of the Labour Party appear to be losing sleep over the presence of, and presumed disagreements with, ambassadors from Cuba or Zimbabwe or China. Or even the United States—with the second Trump administration on its way into office, there are bound to be disagreements over policy.

Who needs ambassadors anyway? They’re just trouble. Some of them don’t even recognize the state of Palestine, all because it doesn’t yet exist.

Speaking of Palestine, let’s check in with Husam Zomlot, Ramallah’s man in London. Zomlot’s definition of a two-state solution includes a Palestinian state next to Israel and the Palestinian “right of return” inside Israel—code for the destruction of the Jewish state. Technically, that is two states. But I don’t think two Palestinian states and no Jewish state is what the Brits mean.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong, and Labour is right now debating whether or not to make Zomlot persona non grata. But I wouldn’t bet on it. There is also the fact that when Zomlot was asked why he wouldn’t condemn Hamas terrorism after Oct. 7, he responded by suggesting that Hamas’s invasion and massacre was legitimate “self-defense.”

Is that sort of thing to Hamish Falconer’s tastes?

Perhaps a more useful question might be: Does former diplomat Hamish Falconer understand what diplomacy is? Does Britain?

There is a sense of entitlement in the tone of British discussion of Israel. All countries agree and disagree on various points of policy. But how dare the Jewish state have outspoken ambassadors! Labour increasingly believes it is entitled to the Israel it wants, not the Israel that Israel wants.

But that question was settled in 1948. And this privileged tone with which British officials discuss Israel is—well, it’s not to my tastes.

Nicole Lampert: Lessons in antisemitism from the NEU

The union is also a linchpin of the anti-Israel demonstrations taking place in our cities. Data taken from 41 major PSC protests between October 2023 and the end of November last year shows that NEU had 23 official speakers — nearly twice as many as the next union, the RMT. Other times they sponsor the demonstrations; for a February one in Leicester, the NEU’s symbol was next to extremist Islamist groups 5 Pillars and CAGE International.

“The NEU’s symbol was next to extremist Islamist groups 5 Pillars and CAGE International.”

Following the motion to circulate “educational material” on the conflict, Natasha says she is aware that one proposal is to “paint Israel as a colonialist endeavour” while Peter has been shown discussions about material which “seeks to say Jews have no history in the region”.

Last month, the NEU joined the call for Palestine Day of Action. In November 2023 this led to a series of school walkouts with children singing pro-Palestine songs. This year, the NEU told teachers in its North London branch: “Our plan is to wear red and green or keffiyehs, a fundraiser for Medical Aid for Palestine and a vigil in the park with floating lanterns.” Only a last-minute Government intervention — reminding teachers of the policy of the neutrality — scuppered some of the plans. Only a few teachers openly broke the rules. Never mind, the NEU is likely to figure at the heart of the next demonstration for Palestine later this month.

Faced with this sort of behaviour, a group of Jewish teachers met with Kebede last year to ask for a more balanced approach to the conflict. They are not holding out much hope; Kebede is a long-time admirer of Jeremy Corbyn who once claimed the former Labour leader’s critics were being offered “30 pieces of silver” — an ancient antisemitic trope. While he later apologised, the following year, at an anti-Israel rally, he issued a call to “globalise the intifada”. An NEU spokesperson later claimed that it was merely “an expression of solidarity and support for civic protests”.

How such “solidarity” manifests in the classroom is often anecdotal, but it certainly isn’t making schools safer. One parent at the Norwood School in South London told me about two incidents in which she felt children at the school were being subtly educated against Israel. Her 14-year-old son brought home teaching material which had been passed out in a “citizenship class” about refugees, which had an incorrect map of Israel and erroneously claimed that “since 1948 more than five million Palestinians have been displaced” — when the 1948 war displaced 700,000 Palestinians (the five million figure comes from the number of their descendants). At another school, in West London, a substitute teacher asked her eight-year-old primary school pupils to put their hands up if they were Jewish. When a couple put their hands up, the teacher told them: “I’m Free Palestine.”

For Jewish parents this is a difficult time. According to the CST, which monitors anti-Jewish hate crimes, instances of antisemitism affecting schools continue to rise, with 162 incidents in just the first half of last year. Sometimes anti-Jewish bullying has been so bad in schools that parents have felt forced to remove their children.

Meanwhile, as the NEU continues to focus on a war on the other side of the world, problems the union should be looking at barely get a look in. “I know I am not the only one who wonders what all of this obsession with Israel has got to do with a teaching union when we have plenty of problems at home,” says Peter. “We have a huge problem with teacher retention, with violence in schools against teachers, with crumbling schools — but all they want to talk about is Palestine.”

01/09 Links Pt1: ICC sanctions bill passes 243-140; Poland will not arrest Netanyahu at Auschwitz memorial; The UN's Secret War Against Israel

From Ian:

Poland says it will not arrest Netanyahu for ICC should he attend Auschwitz memorial

The Polish government said Thursday it will ensure that Israel’s highest representatives can participate freely and safely in the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp later this month after the country’s president asked for a guarantee Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not be arrested over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Netanyahu is currently not planning on attending the commemoration, an aide to the premier told The Times of Israel Thursday, after an aide for Polish President Andrzej Duda confirmed that he had asked Prime Minister Donald Tusk to guarantee Netanyahu’s safety.

Polish media reported last month that Netanyahu would avoid attending events commemorating the 1945 liberation of the Nazi camp in late January, fearing he could be arrested due to Poland’s commitment to respecting an International Criminal Court warrant issued for him over the war in Gaza.

Duda’s aide Malgorzata Paprocka confirmed Thursday that the president had sent a letter to Tusk “to ensure that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is able to participate in the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, should he express such a wish.”

Duda said “Every person from Israel, every official from that country, should be able to take part in this unique event,” Paprocka posted on X.

According to Bloomberg, which first reported on the Wednesday letter, Duda had asked for Netanyahu’s potential stay to be “unhindered” due to the events’ “absolutely exceptional circumstances.”

He called on the Polish government to “devise an adequate formula” to both guarantee Netanyahu isn’t arrested and ensure the country respects international law, according to the outlet, which said it had seen the letter.

Duda has frequently been at odds with the Polish government, suggesting it may not cooperate with his request, according to Bloomberg.

In vote of 243-140, ICC sanctions bill passes House, heads to Senate

The bill seeking sanctions against members of the International Criminal Court over its issuing of arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant passed 243-140 in the Republican-led House of Representatives on Thursday, marking the body’s second vote in favor of the legislation.

The “Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act,” reintroduced this week by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast and Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), received overwhelming Republican support.

Roy attacked the International Criminal Court’s “unprecedented action of issuing arrest warrants” for the sitting prime minister and former defense minister of Israel.

“Let that sit in,” he said. “This is an entity, the International Criminal Court, that has no jurisdiction over the people of the United States. [The ICC] should have no authority over our people, no authority over the prime minister of Israel.”

Mast invokes 'America first'
Mast invoked the “America first” agenda and continually offered his tagline about the legislation, saying the US needs to “get in the way of those that are getting in our way.”

He said the bill sends an incredibly important message across the globe, that “when we make this law, do not get in the way of America or our allies trying to bring our people home. Don’t get in our way.

“You will be given no quarter, and again, you will certainly not be welcomed to American soil,” Mast said.

According to Mast, the ICC had time to “abandon the shameful effort” of issuing Netanyahu and Gallant’s arrest warrants but instead the court attempted to obstruct Israel’s right to defend itself, prolonging the war and preventing the release of American hostages.

“If you’re boosting the morale of Hamas, you are on the other team. And in November, the ICC’s Trial Chamber approved the arrest warrants,” Mast added. “We have to pass this bill today to prevent this travesty from moving any further and to deter any more illegitimate actions by this kangaroo court to halt or stall the military success of our allies trying to bring hostages home, both American and Israeli and others.”

Can ICC sanctions get to 60 votes in the Senate?

Legislation imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court passed the House on Thursday with bipartisan support, but it remains unclear whether it can pick up sufficient Democratic backing in the Senate to meet the 60-vote threshold in the upper chamber.

Depending on when it comes up for a Senate vote, the legislation will likely need seven or eight Democrats’ votes to pass. There are early signals that some Democrats will back the bill, but none are offering concrete stances yet.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who voted for the bill as a House member last year, told Jewish Insider that she hadn’t given the issue any thought yet, but “I tend to vote consistently.”

A spokesperson for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) told JI she supports sanctions in concept, but will want to review the specific bill that Republicans plan to bring forward.

“Sen. Rosen supports sanctioning the ICC in response to its biased targeting of Israel, and she hopes this can be done in a bipartisan way,” the spokesperson said. “She looks forward to reviewing the legislation that comes before the Senate.”

The bill has not yet been formally introduced in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has described the legislation as an early priority, but has not yet specified a concrete timeline for its advancement.

Four other Senate Democrats served in the House when the ICC sanctions bill initially came up for a vote last year. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) voted for the legislation but did not respond to a request for comment, Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) was not present, while Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) voted against it.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) told JI last May that sanctions “should be a part of our conversation, 100%,” but did not respond to a request for comment on his plans for the vote.

Then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told JI last year that he has “always had deep concerns about the ICC’s long-term, anti-Israel bias,” but a spokesperson declined to say how he might vote before a vote is officially announced.

Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gary Peters (D-MI), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) all told JI on Tuesday they hadn’t yet seen Republicans’ proposed legislation and would need to review it before saying how they might vote.

Blumenthal has condemned the ICC in the past for seeking arrest warrants against Israel but told JI in November that sanctions, while deserved, “may dignify the warrant more than it deserves.”

Red Triangle Shortage Hampering Hamas Achievements (PreOccupied Territory)

Our weekly column from the humor site PreOccupied Territory.

Check out their Facebook and Substack pages.

Red Triangle Shortage Hampering Hamas Achievements

Jabaliya, January 9 - Israel's restrictions on materials that may enter the Gaza Strip have put a strain on terrorist logistics there, with the most acute lack the supply of small red shapes to place just above images of IDF soldiers or vehicles in "Resistance" footage, local sources disclosed today.

Recent months have seen a dramatic drop in the number of available inverted red triangles that Hamas use to identify Israeli targets, figures within the organization acknowledged Thursday, partly as a result of their profligate use in the first few weeks and months of the current war, and partly as a result of Israel successfully clamping down on both the smuggling of the items into Gaza and destroying production sites within the coastal territory.

The initial phase of the IDF incursion into the Gaza Strip in early November 2023 followed the October 7 Massacre, in which Hamas men and Gaza civilians went on a murder, destruction, looting, torture, rape and kidnapping spree in southern Israel. 100 hostages and bodies of hostages remain held in Gaza.

During that initial ground operation, Hamas propagandists took great pride in posting to social media footage of attacks on IDF troops, with the characteristic flashing red triangle indicating the target as the clip paused for a second to let the viewer know what was bring shown. The propagandists intended for the clips to both boost Palestinian and pro-Hamas morale at home and abroad, and to demoralize Israelis. However, the distribution of the clips conflicted with the primary pro-Hamas narrative in which helpless Palestinians faced genocide.

In late December 2023 or early January 2024, Hamas leaders decided to scale back the deployment of red triangles, in consideration of both the cross-purposes of the propaganda and the Islamist organization's dwindling polygon stockpiles. "We can't aim properly if we don't have the triangles," admitted one of the group's few surviving field commanders.

Humanitarian organizations have tried to secure more red triangles for the Palestinians in Gaza, with no success. "Israel deprives them of these essential items as part of the genocide," lamented Agnes Callamard of Amnesty International. "I'm sure this is a core element of the case against [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu at [the International Court of Justice at] The Hague."

Experts explained that other shapes, even if available, do not offer the versatility and efficiency of the triangle in battlefield situations where the speed and precision of each tactical element can make the difference between a good and a bad propaganda shot.

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

New batch of EoZ cartoons

Don't forget to buy my book of cartoons, "He's a Zionist Too!"

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

Amnesty's response to Amnesty Israel's' detailed arguments against its "genocide" thesis: "I aint reading all that Free Palestine"

One of the more popular T-shirts that came out of the anti-Israel encampments was based on a scrawl done by a Columbia University student on a university notice to the encampments: "I Aint Reading All That Free Palestine."

This message that facts don't matter is also Amnesty International's mantra.

When Amnesty Israel rejected the Amnesty International report accusing Israel of genocide, it wrote a long, reasoned essay describing the methodological flaws in the Amnesty conclusion. It harshly criticizes Israeli actions in Gaza - and makes some major mistakes of its own - but it truly destroys Amnesty's argument.

Amnesty pretends to look at alternatives to its genocide hypothesis in order to reject them. Amnesty Israel calls those out as not serious:

AI Israel is concerned that the alternative hypothesis sub-chapter in the report is unconvincing and written in a precarious way. In specific, it fails to genuinely represent important arguments that provide context, alternative explanations and other facts in regard to Israel’s conduct and intentions. The proper way to go about writing such a subchapter is to play the devil’s advocate as candidly as possible, or rather ask someone internal (or, even better, someone external) to write this part with all seriousness, providing gravity and real thought into the alternative hypothesis, all of this in order to avoid self-misleading, cherry-picking and other fallacies. Unfortunately, we believe that this is not the case in this report. What we have, instead of a serious analysis, is a straw man – a weaker, unserious version of the alternative hypothesis, which makes an easy target, but serves poorly as a method to deal with such important issues. Some arguments were not discussed while some were mentioned but immediately dismissed or belittled. Moreover, the analysis section that compares between the hypotheses is totally lacking, and is merely claiming that the report’s hypothesis is more convincing, to the point that it is the only one that makes sense – without actual proper discussion and scrutiny.

Amnesty Israel creates its own anti-Israel hypothesis whose very existence disproves Amnesty's thesis that there is no reasonable alternative hypothesis to genocide.

It is important to note that refuting an accusation of genocide does not necessarily entail proving that other hypotheses are more reasonable, but rather that they are reasonable enough to cast doubts on the genocide hypothesis, hence to prove that it is not in fact the only reasonable explanation to the actions of the perpetrators. This high bar is not inadvertent but rather intentionally designed to keep the crime of genocide harder to prove.

One such hypothesis that we will examine here is what we dub as “the disregard hypothesis” – that is: Israel was pursuing military goals while showing blatant disregard to Gazans’ lives, but without an intent to destroy the group as such.

I disagree entirely with Amnesty Israel's own hypothesis. Yet if Israel's actions can be explained as merely blatantly disregarding the lives of Gazans - which is in fact Amnesty Israel's belief - that blows up Amnesty's entire argument that there is no other reasonable explanation for Israel's actions outside an intent to murder Gaza civilians.

And Amnesty Israel proves it: Israel's use of artificial intelligence to determine targets shows that it is targeting militants, allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza is inconsistent with genocide, Israel treated "safe zones" with more care than clear military targets, Israel assisted in the polio vaccination campaign, Israel uses expensive accurate missiles instead of cheap artillery with less accuracy, and:

Hamas’ strategy to embed itself within civilians can explain the massive devastation at residential areas, hospitals, schools etc, rather than the intent to destroy these areas and facilities as such.

Amnesty International's decision to suspend its Israeli branch for violating its newly made up policy of maintaining "operational coherence" looks even worse when you read Amnesty Israel's critique, because it means that Amnesty could not answer the criticisms even from its own people. It could not tolerate debate within its organization.

It instead said to AI Israel, "I aint reading all that free Palestine." Amnesty is acting like the tinpot dictators it was originally meant to expose and oppose. Debate is not tolerated at Anesty; only slavishly following the dictates of its leaders.

Amnesty has lost all credibility - except among the types of people who proudly who wear those T-shirts bragging about their ignorance.

(h/t Daled Amos)

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

Over a year ago, I proposed a "day after" scenario in Gaza that would bring peace and prosperity to the residents there, security to Israel and a huge boon to the entire region: turn Gaza into the eighth United Arab Emirate.

The reasons it makes sense are:

* Only a Gulf country has the resources to rebuild Gaza and realize its dream of becoming a Singapore.

* Israel is at peace with the UAE and would eagerly cooperate with it in facilitating the new emirate.

* The problem of territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza would no longer be an issue.

* Gazans would become UAE citizens, get passports, and could freely move to other emirates if they want. If they prefer to hold on to the dream of an independent Palestinian state, they can move to the West Bank.

* For the first time, there would be optimism about Gaza's future that would encourage investment.

* One can foresee joint Israel-UAE economic projects that would employ thousands of Gazans.

* The UAE would not tolerate terror. There would be no rockets, no cross-border raids, no tunnels.

* It would help the Sinai prosper as well, as Egypt would be able to reap benefits of an Arab economic powerhouse next door.

What would the UAE get out of it?

* A port on the Mediterranean

* Access to natural gas and other fossil fuels off the coast

* Overland routes of trucking and shipping tying the Gulf to the Mediterranean, facilitating imports and exports

* An airport would bring an air bridge as well

* Increased influence in the region, which the UAE desires

* Gaza could become a tourist destination and a meeting hub between European and Arab political and business leaders

Now, Reuters reports that the UAE is heavily involved in "day after" proposals. Not yet as far reaching as what I proposed but it is a step in the right direction.

The United Arab Emirates has discussed with Israel and the United States participating in a provisional administration of post-war Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority is able to take charge, according to people familiar with the talks.

The behind-the-scenes discussions, reported by Reuters for the first time, included the possibility of the UAE and the United States, along with other nations, temporarily overseeing the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the Israeli military withdraws and until a Palestinian administration is able to take over, a dozen foreign diplomats and Western officials told Reuters.

"The UAE will not participate in any plan that fails to include significant reform of the Palestinian Authority, its empowerment, and the establishment of a credible roadmap toward a Palestinian state," a UAE official told Reuters, in response to questions about the discussions.

"These elements - which are currently lacking - are essential for the success of any post-Gaza plan."

I don't know if the UAE has ambitions to take over Gaza as I outlined. But if they do, then they would say exactly what they are saying now - that it would be temporary, that they want to see a reformed PA eventually take over the sector, that it must be a step towards a Palestinian state. That's the only way they could credibly get involved in the mess that is Gaza.

But here's the thing about the Middle East: temporary arrangements tend to become permanent absent a huge upheaval like a war.

UNRWA was meant to be temporary. The 1949 armistice lines were meant to be temporary. The Palestinian Authority itself was meant to be temporary. Momentum keeps them in place.

The PA is unreformable. The EU has already invested billions on making it into a responsible, modern government and it remains a thoroughly corrupt dictatorship with little popular support.

The West likes a status quo. If the UAE gets involved with Gaza, and heavily invests in its rebuilding, then it naturally would have a larger voice than, say, Qatar or Egypt in how it gets rebuilt and what it will eventually look like.

If the UAE shares my vision on the benefits of turning Gaza into an emirate, this is what it would so to start. Let's hope that this is only the first step.

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

A very funny incident happened this week.

The Israel Foreign Ministry's Israel in Arabic Instagram page posted a brief and accurate history of the Jewish kingdoms in the region, with a map. Here's the entire post translated.

Did you know that the Kingdom of Israel existed for 3,000 years?

The first king to rule for 40 years was King Saul (1050–1010) BC. He was followed by King David, who ruled for approximately 40 years (1010–970) BC. He was followed by King Solomon, who also ruled for 40 years (970–931) BC.

The reign of the three kings lasted 120 years, an important period of time in the history of Israel. These years witnessed development in Jewish life in various fields, including culture, religion, and the economy.

After the death of King Solomon, the kingdom was divided in 931 BC into two parts: the Kingdom of Israel in the north and the Kingdom of Judah in the south, following internal conflicts due to heavy tax burdens and the centralized policies he imposed on the tribes.

King Jeroboam bin Nebat ascended to the throne of the Kingdom of Israel in the north (pictured in yellow). Then he established two centers of worship in Dan and Beit El to establish a separate identity from the kingdom of Rehoboam, son of Solomon, in the south, who preferred to raise taxes on the people, at a time when they were suffering from them.

The rule of the Kingdom of Israel in the north continued for about 209 years until its fall at the hands of the Assyrians in 722 BC.

As for the southern Kingdom of Judah (in green), it continued for about 345 years until its fall at the hands of Nebuchadnezzar, Emperor of Babylon, in 568 BC.

This division led to political conflicts throughout the history of the people of Israel, and its effects continued for hundreds of years..
However, the Jewish people in the diaspora continued to aspire to the renaissance of their strength and capabilities and to rebuild their state, which was declared in the State of Israel in 1948 to become the only democracy in the Middle East

This caused an uproar, especially in Jordan, which was upset that the map included lands on what is now Jordan. Which, of course, they did.

As amusing as the Jordanian reaction was, the Palestinian one was hysterical (in every sense.)

Mahmoud Abbas' spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said that publishing this map is “condemned and rejected and constitutes a flagrant violation of all international legitimacy resolutions and international law.”

Independent Arabia interviewed prominent Palestinian historian and archaeologist Nazmi al-Jubeh, a professor at Birzeit University. He denied any Jewish kingdoms ever existed.

"The Jews have never had any independent rule in Palestine,” adding that they were “agents of the successive empires that controlled Palestine, such as the Greeks, Romans, and Persians.” He explained that “the dynasty of Herod, the Hasmoneans, and the Maccabees did not rule independently, but were part of a much broader ruling structure to protect the Jews themselves and preserve their privacy,” noting that they rebelled against those empires on occasion. According to al-Jubeh, the map “does not indicate the existence of a Jewish majority in those areas, even if there were Jews there, especially in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon,” adding that “the map contains a lot of wishful thinking, rather than a reflection of historical facts with the aim of bestowing historical legitimacy on the State of Israel.”

Palestinians are so eager to deny Jewish history that they have to tie themselves up in knots. And they are not at all concerned that their professional reputations will be tarnished by saying such nonsense.

It is not only an obvious lie, but it is also a lie that is an insult to Palestinian Christians who study the Bible - which describes the kingdoms of Saul, David and Solomon in detail.

But it gets worse Because the Quran itself admits that David was the leader of a kingdom. In chapter 38, Surah Saad, it says,

16. And they say, “Our Lord, hasten Your writ upon us, before the Day of Account.”

17. Be patient in the face of what they say, and mention Our servant David, the resourceful. He was obedient.
...
20. And We strengthened his kingdom, and gave him wisdom and decisive speech.

For some reason, the Palestinian Christians and Muslims never say a word against their political leaders and others denying their own religious texts.

(h/t Asher)

Buy EoZ's books on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

01/08 Links Pt2: Report highlights JVP’s terrorist connections; Why is ‘Haaretz’ consistently anti-Israel?; NFL legends pay solidarity visit to Israel

From Ian:

Their god is not willing, Penny

How many Palestinians does it take to change a light bulb?

None! They sit in the dark forever and blame the Jews for it!

Those who follow Middle East affairs will know that ‘god willing’ is the wish – the mantra – constantly uttered by all Muslims, including radical Islamists. But god isn’t willing, judging by history. Israel has won every single war of over half a dozen started by its neighbouring enemies in the Arab world since its inception. And in 2024, Israel decimated Iran’s terror proxies in response to yet another onslaught, launched on October 7, 2023 by Hamas, followed by Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen-based Houthis.

Undeterred, Australia’s Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, wears the political bling that signals her allegiance to the current fashion, demonstrated by voting in favour of antisemitic UN resolutions and her regrettable statements in relation to Israel. Her Prime Minister, seemingly reliving his student activist years, added his silence to the breach of loyalty and failure of moral clarity. Their ill-informed acceptance of the illegal decision of the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant is proof of their animosity to Israel (and their lack of respect for the rule of law).

‘The Palestinian Arabs have wasted the past century trying to destroy the Jewish homeland while Israel has gone from strength to strength. To prevent the next 100 years of war, they must understand the Jewish state is not going anywhere. They must internalise that terrorism and massacres will not be rewarded,’ writes Robert Gregory, chief executive of the Australian Jewish Association, in The Australian (Dec. 28, 2024)

‘The West must stop infantilising the Palestinians and shielding them from the consequences of their actions. There should be no rebuilding of Gaza until the society there commits to peaceful coexistence.’

While Penny Wong agitates for a two state solution, the Palestinian leadership abhors the idea. They want a one state solution, Israel not included. Australia now stands as a University student flag bearer for what is nothing more than an impotent slogan. There are more than enough useful idiots in international affairs; Australia’s Labor and Greens parties do not need to swell their ranks.

Report highlights JVP’s ‘extremist ideology,’ terrorist connections

A new booklet from StandWithUs seeks to expose Jewish Voice for Peace and the “extremist” rhetoric, harmful alliances and antisemitic actions the group utilizes.

The opening executive summary of the 36-page report released on Tuesday stated that JVP’s “primary goal is to dismantle the State of Israel.”

“JVP and its allies slander and dehumanize Israelis as privileged, powerful and racist white European colonizers,” the report stated. “They promote dangerous conspiracy theories tying Israelis to injustices against various communities” around the world.

The report also highlights JVP’s backing of terrorist organizations and their supporters, including the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and Samidoun, which the U.S. and Canadian governments have sanctioned for its fundraising efforts for PFLP. JVP co-hosted the rally “Shut It Down for Palestine” with Samidoun’s local branch and endorsed the organization’s “Free Ahmad Sa’adat” campaign.

StandWithUs also accuses JVP of not being financially transparent while maintaining what the report calls “questionable sources of funding,” identified as foundations with ties to Lebanon and Iran, such as The Maximum Difference Foundation, The Violet Jabara Charitable Trust and the Halaby Family Foundation.

Antisemitism is More Stupid Than Cool

The last thing I needed to see after watching a movie about the amazing Bob Dylan was a year-end review with “antisemitism is cool” in the headline. Apparently, the evidence for this coolness was the “shocking rise” of antisemitism in mainstream institutions. In other words, the more that people hated Jews in 2024, the cooler it was to hate Jews. Power to the people!

What a silly equation.

Given that I had just watched “A Complete Unknown,” about the early musical years of Bob Dylan, I couldn’t help contrast Hamas supporters screaming “no Zionists here” in front of a Jewish hospital in New York with a Jewish troubadour bringing joy to millions and offering answers that only blow in the wind.

The thousands of Jew haters and useful idiots that have marched like hysterical robots spewing primal melodies around choice lyrics like “globalize the intifada” may be a lot of things. Stupid, boring, insufferable — yes. Cool — certainly not.

Why is this even worth bringing up? Because haters make so much noise they can make us lose our minds. Their bravado makes them look triumphant. Their chutzpah gives them the aura of Che Guevaras. They come across as fearless and fearsome fighters of justice. In an era when performance is everything, they check all the boxes.

Jews can never compete with those boxes. We can make plenty of noise when we argue at a Shabbat table about Donald Trump, but to damage our vocal cords by marching in unison on some busy street to “perform” a call for justice? We’d rather go to a deli for a pastrami or meet for coffee.

Jews will never outscream the haters. We can fight them by making sure they pay a price. We can use all legal means at our disposal. We can proudly practice our Judaism. But scream? Who needs to scream?

And who likes screamers anyway?

It’s so much cooler to make people laugh. Or dance. Or think.

The pro-Hamas bullies who have tried to intimidate Jews since the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7 have attempted the ultimate switcheroo — by associating Jews with Israel, they’re hoping we will be seen as the true bullies. Sure, there are those who will get sucked in by such trickery. But let’s remember the words of a Jewish singer who was onto these tricks way back in 1983.

“Well, the neighborhood bully, he’s just one man.

His enemies say he’s on their land.

They got him outnumbered about a million to one.

He got no place to escape to, no place to run.

He’s the neighborhood bully.

The neighborhood bully he just lives to survive.

He’s criticized and condemned for being alive.

He’s not supposed to fight back, he’s supposed to have thick skin.

01/08 Links Pt1: The IDF should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize; Bodies of hostages Youssef and Hamza Ziyadne retrieved from Gaza; Will Trump Follow Through?

From Ian:

Michael Gove: The IDF should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize

The West has cause to be grateful that the Netanyahu government chose not to follow the Biden-Blinken lead. Rather than show the sort of weakness that would have won sympathy from the White House but won no battles on the ground, the Israeli government demonstrated the sort of strength that is the only path to enduring peace. By crippling Hamas’s ability to fight and removing its military leadership, then neutralising much of Hezbollah’s offensive capacity and taking similar steps with its leaders, Israel dealt devastating blows to the terrorist organisations dedicated to its destruction. And it advanced the cause of peace more widely.

The daylight into which the prisoners of Syria’s jails at last stumbled was daylight that dawned following Israel’s actions in weakening Hezbollah, Hamas and their sponsors in Iran. The pillars propping up Assad’s regime had been shaken to their foundations by Israel. And it is to Israel’s credit that its government did not stand idle as Assad fell. The prompt action the IDF took in southern Syria in the days after Assad’s departure helped ensure the weapons he had stockpiled would not fall into the wrong hands.

More than that, the toppling of Assad, following Hezbollah’s humiliation and Hamas’s defeats, has set the seal on a truly terrible year for Iran’s ayatollahs. Their direct attacks on Israel have failed. With their proxies diminished and their allies defeated, the Iranian regime looks weaker than at any time since 1979. That is not just good news for Israel, whose destruction Iran’s leaders are committed to, but Iran’s own people who yearn to breathe free.

Let it not be forgotten that Assad’s demise is also a setback for Putin’s Russia. Weakened by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it could not afford the troops or the resources to maintain its murderous ally in the Middle East. And it has lost more than a regional puppet and prestige in the global south. The loss of its naval and air bases in Syria weaken its ability to refuel and reinforce its mercenary armies in Africa. Whatever steps may be taken towards peace in Ukraine this year, they take place against a backdrop in which Russia is weaker following Israel’s actions.

Terrorists defeated, tyrants toppled, democracy defended and Ukraine strengthened: None of this would have happened if the Biden-Blinken team had had their way. Maybe it’s time Joe and Antony made amends to Bibi before they leave office on January 20. Words are all very well, but what about something more tangible? Why not nominate the men and women of the IDF for the Nobel Peace Prize? Provocative, perhaps. But as a sign that Team Biden finally recognises that it’s weakness that really is more provocative than strength, it would be truly enlightening.

Seth Mandel: To End a War

The preference for freezing wars instead of ending them is one of the more dangerous trends in Western policymaking. What was once widely recognized as an innovation of Vladimir Putin’s Russia has somehow become Plan A among a panicky Western public that refuses to look more than a few hours into the future.

And the insistence on applying this policy to Israel’s war against Hamas recalls the adage “it was worse than a crime; it was a blunder.” In this case, pressuring Israel to freeze its conflict with Hamas in place is more than immoral; it is irrational.

Throughout the history of warfare, postwar settlements have been driven and judged by whether they made renewed conflict more or less likely. It was understood that ceasefires simply for the purposes of allowing belligerents to rearm for the next battle do not constitute “peace.” Making such ceasefires the end goal of negotiations is a recipe for permanent war in every global hotspot.

Further, fears of one side not sticking to its commitments make it harder to strike peace deals. If one has an enemy that cannot be trusted to uphold agreements, but one still wants to end the cycle of violence, what option is left? Total victory.

Author and political scientist Dan Reiter, in his book How Wars End, estimates that, “Over the 1914-2001 period, nearly one third of all interstate war ceasefires (56 out of 188) eventually broke down into renewed war.” In the case of Israel and Hamas, renewed war is assured. What do people expect Israel to do here?

Reiter offers three forms of total victory that break this pattern: annihilation, annexation, and imposed regime change.

Israel is obviously not pursuing the first—evacuating millions to safe zones in a war that has resulted in about 20,000-25,000 civilian Palestinian deaths by definition rules out any discussion of annihilation.

Israel isn’t pursuing the second—annexation—because it has only moved in the opposite direction, having relinquished its occupation of Gaza entirely. Israel also continues to conduct multilateral diplomacy to determine who might be able to govern Gaza both interim and long-term, and that diplomacy does not include Israeli annexation even as an option.

Third and last is imposed regime change. This is the option Israel has chosen.

Seth J. Frantzman: In 2025, Israel’s Gaza Campaign Is Not Over

The tough choices ahead for Israel relate to several key factors in the Gaza war. First of all, Hamas took 250 hostages on October 7, of whom ninety-six are thought to remain in Gaza. Recently, Hamas released a video of one of the hostages. However, Hamas has refused to provide Israel with a list of the total number and names of the hostages who remain alive. Despite various reports over the last six months, The Israeli prime minister’s office clarified on January 6 that a recent list of hostages circulating in the media was “not provided to Israel by Hamas but was originally given by Israel to the meditators in July 2024.” Despite reports of a deal taking shape, Hamas appears to be stalling. Changes may occur once President-elect Donald Trump takes office later in the month. Trump has said several times recently that he wants the hostages released or else “there will be hell” for Hamas.

The hostage deal appears to have been stuck for a year with little progress. It requires a rethink in terms of a strategy. Leaving living and dead hostages in Gaza for a long period of time would appear to be a macabre end to the October 7 attack and send a message that Hamas can get away with its crimes. On the other hand, the Israeli political leadership appears wary of a deal similar to the one in 2011 when one Israeli soldier held hostage in Gaza for five years was released in exchange for 1,000 Palestinians, many of them convicted terrorists. Some, like Yayha Sinwar, were even involved in the October 7 attack.

Israel could choose to continue negotiations in Gaza with limited military incursions, as has been the norm over the past year after fighting became less intense in the spring of 2024. However, Israel’s initial military campaign in Gaza was designed to apply military pressure to secure hostage deals. That pressure largely ended in the spring of 2024 after the first deal took place in late November 2023. Israel could choose to renew pressure on Hamas and try to remove the group from areas it controls in Gaza, such as the central Gaza Strip. The IDF has never entered central Gaza in force, despite the long war, leaving Hamas in charge of key urban areas such as Deir al-Balah and Nuseirat.

The hostage deal and military pressure are not the only challenges in Gaza. A related challenge is the question of whether Hamas will be replaced as the governing authority in Gaza. When the war began, Israel’s political leadership compared Hamas to ISIS and said it would be crushed in the same way ISIS was defeated. ISIS was removed from areas in Iraq and Syria after a multi-year campaign between 2014 and 2019. However, Israel’s goals in Gaza appear to have shifted since October 2023 statements about removing Hamas completely.

After fifteen months of war, there is no alternative being put forward for controlling Gaza. Hamas continues to control all the areas where civilians are present in Gaza. What this means is that, unlike the war on ISIS, where civilians were able to leave areas such as Mosul and move to IDP camps under the control of the Iraqi government or the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, civilians in Gaza have not been provided a non-Hamas option for civilian rule. This is why Hamas is able to continue recruiting and also able to continue to control areas where humanitarian aid is supplied. In essence, this puts Hamas astride the supply lines and in possession of many key urban areas in Gaza.

When the October 7 War began, Hamas was able to call on support from other Iranian-backed groups in the region. Hezbollah began attacks on Israel from Lebanon. The Houthis in Yemen began attacks on Israel and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq began attacks on U.S. forces and also prepared to target Israel. This multi-front war made it difficult for Israel to vanquish all these enemies. However, fifteen months later, things have changed in Israel’s favor. Hezbollah is greatly weakened. The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq appear to have stopped their drone attacks on Israel. The Assad regime, which was a conduit for Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah, fell on December 8. This leaves Hamas and the Houthis still standing, although Hamas has been greatly weakened since 2023. Israel also faces increasing attacks from the West Bank by groups linked to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other armed factions.

The overall challenge for Israel in 2025 now returns to Gaza. Although the Iranian nuclear program and other fronts remain, Gaza is where the war began and where it will have to end. A long war in Gaza fighting Hamas for years does not appear to be in Israel’s interest. However, leaving Hamas in control would inevitably enable the group to reconstitute its threat to Israel. Replacing Hamas requires a strategy and coordination with other countries that want to see a peaceful, stable Gaza.