Biden’s Middle East Dilemma
Its determination to reenter the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was left unmentioned, but it was hard not to notice that the revival of negotiations with the still more vicious theocracy in Tehran coincided with renewed public scapegoating of the House of Saud. If the Obama administration had acquiesced to the Saudi intervention in Yemen in 2015 to ease Riyadh’s panic over the nuclear deal, the restoration of the deal seems to provide the regional policy framework for the Biden team’s approach to relations with Saudi Arabia—this time, by freezing out the “murderous maniac” crown prince in order to “put human rights back at the center of our foreign policy.”Iran's Antisemitism Isn't Only About Israel
And indeed, as president, Biden has refused to engage directly with MBS, who he’s said has “very little social redeeming value.” He released an intelligence report in February that claimed (but did not demonstrate) that the Khashoggi murder was approved by the crown prince. He has held offensive weapons sales to the kingdom in suspension, reduced U.S. support for Saudi operations in Yemen, and withdrawn missile defense systems from Saudi soil, even as Houthi rockets and Iranian drones menace Saudi cities and oil facilities. His “foreign policy initiative” is backed by feverish legislative activity, too: Pending in the 117th Congress are no less than 10 bills meant to hit the Saudis in general, and MBS in particular, for Khashoggi and Yemen.
It’s possible an American Metternich could persuade Riyadh to engineer an oil price collapse that would aid his own political survival while continuing to whip it in public for crimes against morality and aligning with its strategic rival. But Joe Biden probably can’t. There seems to be some dawning recognition, in fact, of the Saudis’ limited but real ability to scupper both the Iran deal and Biden’s political fortunes: In recent weeks, the State Department approved the potential sale of $650 million worth of air-to-air missiles to Riyadh (Rep. Ilhan Omar has filed legislation to block it) and a U.S. bomber (accompanied, at different times, by Saudi and Israeli fighter jets) conducted a patrol mission around the Arabian Peninsula. Ahead of upcoming nuclear negotiations with Iran, the White House is also sending Special Envoy Robert Malley to Riyadh (and Dubai and Jerusalem) for “consultations.”
But if the administration expects these concessions (such as they are) to reassure the Saudis, they’ll likely be disappointed. The crisis threatening U.S.-Saudi relations is not that the president prefers to deal with the crown prince’s father, the 85-year-old King Salman, or that some House reps would like to pass the MBS Must Be Sanctioned Act (H.R. 1511), or that Democrats in general are striking an “increasingly standoffish attitude toward the kingdom,” as one typically navel-gazing U.S. press report put it.
The real crisis is of a different magnitude: Saudi Arabia is terrified not of cold shoulders or even of sanctions, but of the fact that the United States seems intent on reaching a diplomatic condominium in the Middle East with the kingdom’s existential enemy—even, if necessary, at the expense of Biden’s political fortunes; and even if it means—as it did in Kabul—watching its former allies fall.
Anti-Zionism is antisemitism, and the Iranian regime's singular focus on denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination in the Jewish homeland is Jew-hatred, plain and simple.Caroline Glick: Biden's Moment of Truth on Turkey
One of America's most prominent universities shamefully regurgitated Khamenei's talking point. "The theocratic [Iranian] regime is neither irrationally messianic nor antisemitic in its hard power calculations," read a page on Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced and International Studies. It was deleted following condemnation on social media by many Iran observers, including this author.
Distorted images of the Iranian regime are by no means unique to the American academy. While the rest of Iran's Jewish community stays below the radar, one young rabbi—Rabbi Yehuda Gerami—has taken to calling himself the "chief rabbi" of Iran and posting his activities on social media. Gerami, who was educated in the U.S. before returning to Iran, is infamous for condemning Israel and making a "condolence visit to the family of Qasem Soleimani," following the Trump administration's elimination of the terror mastermind, according to Ynet.
During his rather strange tour of the United States this month, Gerami claimed that the Jews in Iran are thriving. "Even if someone is caught with wine on the street, if he says that he is Jewish and shows his Jewish identity card, there are no problems," he told Ami Magazine, seemingly with a straight face.
Try as some might to paint the Iranian regime as a rational or even tolerant actor, senior regime figures have a habit of exposing their virulent antisemitism. Iranian vice president for economic affairs Mohsen Rezaee last month threatened to take hostage the Jewish community of Iran: "The Israeli government knows very well that if it makes a mistake, the regime will treat the 10,000 Jews living in Iran differently."
This is an obvious threat to Jews—not in Israel, but in Iran, which has been home to Jews for over 2,500 years, pre-dating the Islamic conquest of Persia.
Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic Revolution of 1979, Jews have not been treated as equal members of Iranian society. Some have been executed by the regime for no "crime" other than being Jewish.
Then there is Jerusalem. Rather than permit Turkey to expand its hostile activities in Israel's capital, Israel could ban Turkish NGOs from operating in Jerusalem and the Temple Mount. Israel could easily couch this as a move on behalf of Jordan, which is concerned by the outsize role Turkey has arrogated to itself.
Another area Israel has massive leverage over Turkey is natural gas. Israel has built a natural gas alliance with its fellow East Mediterranean producers Greece and Cyprus. The three governments agreed to build a pipeline to Italy—bypassing Turkey—to sell natural gas to Europe. Earlier this year, then-Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said Israel would cooperate with Turkey on the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas pipeline. That decision can, and should, be reversed so long as the Oaknins remain in custody.
Another area Israel could squeeze Turkey is in the international unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market. Israel has been considering relaxing restrictions on the export of its UAVs. Turkey is currently building up its position as a major UAV supplier. An Israeli move to expand its position in the market would significantly decrease Turkey's market share, diminishing not only Erdogan's foreign currency reserves, but decreasing his leverage with Russia and other major powers.
Israel's ability to stare down Erdogan, both to secure the Oaknins' speedy release from Turkish jail and to disabuse Erdogan of the notion that he is well served by taking Israeli hostages, is dependent to a large degree on U.S. support.
Following the Gaza flotilla, the UN set up a commission to investigate what happened. In 2011, the commission largely exonerated Israel from blame for the death of the Turkish passengers who attacked IDF commandos engaged in the lawful effort to enforce a lawful maritime blockade. That should have been the end of Erdogan's demand for damages for the dead IHH attackers and the end of his assault on Israel. It certainly should have ended any thought in the Obama administration that it would be reasonable to pressure Israel to bow to Erdogan's demands, apologize and pay indemnities to the families of the IHH assailants who attacked Israel's naval forces.
But that isn't what happened. In 2013, then-President Barack Obama visited Israel. At the end of his visit, as he stood on the tarmac before boarding Air Force One to depart the country, Obama demanded that Netanyahu apologize to Erdogan in Obama's presence. The men sat down in a trailer at the airport, where Obama called Erdogan and put Netanyahu on the phone. Netanyahu apologized. Israel agreed to pay into a fund for the dead IHH assailants. And Obama left Israel with a "diplomatic achievement."
If President Joe Biden opts to follow in Obama's footsteps and coerces Israel to accept whatever demands Erdogan makes to secure the Oaknins' release, Biden won't simply be placing the lives of every Israeli tourist in jeopardy. He will demonstrate to U.S. allies worldwide that the U.S. will exploit their vulnerabilities to join their enemies in harming them.