Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News: failed rockets

Showing posts with label failed rockets. Show all posts

Monday, April 15, 2024

It was one of the largest such combined attacks in history. Many Iranian missiles failed. And other Day 2 observations on the weekend events.

An Israeli newspaper summed up the Iranian "Operation Truthful Promise" as "The Iranian lion roared like a cat."

As we get more information, we learn that the attack was in most ways larger than anything Russia has mounted against Ukraine.

The extent of the attack was one of the largest seen in modern warfare. Russia's opening "shock and awe" barrage on the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, included between 160 and 200 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles - against a country more than 20 times the area of Israel.

Russia first used Iranian-made Shahad drones in conjunction with a missile attack on October 10, 2022, a barrage aimed at Ukraine's infrastructure,. This included a total of 84 missiles and 24 UAVs. Only about half of the Russian missiles were intercepted.

This compares to 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles launched by Iran towards Israel.

Iranian media is claiming a "clean victory," saying that their ballistic missiles landed exactly where they were intended.

So that means they wanted to create an easily repairable crater on a runway in the desert and on a road.

The attack shows that the ballistic missiles are the most difficult to defend against, since several made it through. That doesn't detract from the amazing achievements of blocking them. The videos of missile intercepts in space, probably from an Arrow-3, are spectacular:

A surprising number of Iranian missiles failed, either exploding in Iran or en route.

Iran’s missile technology is to a great extent based on Soviet and North Korean know-how.

U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal that half of the ballistic missiles that Iran launched either failed to launch or fell from the sky before reaching their targets.

Here's video of one that landed in Iran, this single missile causing more damage there than all the projectiles did in Israel combined:

As the Institute for the Study of War notes, however, Israel cannot afford to be complacent. The claimed "99%" intercept rate is somewhat exaggerated - it was probably closer to 97% or 98% - and the several that did make it through could have caused great damage had they hit populated areas:

Iran’s ability to penetrate Israeli air defenses with even a small number of large ballistic missiles presents serious security concerns for Israel. The only Iranian missiles that got through hit an Israeli military base, limiting the damage, but a future strike in which several ballistic missiles penetrate Israeli air defenses and hit Tel Aviv or Haifa could cause significant civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, including ports and energy. Russian strikes on Ukraine have demonstrated that even a small number of precise strikes against key nodes in energy or other infrastructure can cause disproportionate effects. Israel and its partners should not emerge from this successful defense with any sense of complacency.

In 2022 Iran announced, to much fanfare, that it had manufactured hypersonic missiles than could not be stopped by known interceptors. They also claimed to have upgraded those missiles last year. Iran is now claiming that every hypersonic missile it shot at Israel successfully hit their targets.

It is unclear whether any of the missiles launched were indeed what would be considered hypersonic - meaning, traveling at greater than Mach-5 speeds while maintaining maneuverability. Regular ballistic missiles hit hypersonic speeds as they descend from space but that does not make them hypersonic missiles, which are usually defined as either hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). Iran's so-called hypersonic missiles are medium range ballistic missiles with limited maneuverability. It is not clear at this time whether any of the missiles that made it through were the Fattah-1 or Fattah 2 "hypersonic" missiles of Iran.

What is clear is that Israel would not be able to rely on allies being able to help them stop all future similar attacks, especially without so much advanced warning. The simple math of being able to overwhelm Israeli defenses, which are much more expensive than the projectiles being shot are, remains an issue as it does in Gaza or Lebanon.

Saying that Israel should regard this as a victory is short-sighted. As others have pointed out, surviving someone shooting at you many times because of your bulletproof vest is not a victory. The shooter can reload and only needs one bullet to make it through. Israel cannot afford to remain in a purely defensive posture forever, especially as Iran has proven that it is now willing to directly attack Israel.

The question is not if, but when.

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Over 800 terrorist rockets have exploded inside Gaza so far

The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center has always been the best source for information during Israel's wars in Gaza. They have connections in the IDF that the media generally do not have.

In their update from October 19, they show exactly how many terrorist rockets have been shot since October 7 - and how many have exploded in Gaza.

About 10% of rocket launches have been unsuccessful, according to their analysis. Moreover, the percentage of failed launches has been increasing in recent days: 25% on 10/14, 18% on 10/18.

By now the number must be closer to 900 failed launches.

While some of these failed launches explode on the ground, hundreds clearly get airborne and then fall inside Gaza. And as we've seen, not just from the Al Ahli hospital incident but from previous wars, Gaza civilians are often killed by these rockets.

And the media usually doesn't even consider that possibility when they discuss fatal "airstrikes" in Gaza.

The percentage of failed rocket attacks has always been in the 15-20% range in previous wars as well.

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"Forensic Architecture" tries to say hospital explosion wasn't a terror rocket, creating a conspiracy theory

We've already proven in the past that Forensic Architecture is an anti-Israel group that partners with media and human rights NGOs to pretend to use cutting edge 3-D modeling to prove its lies.

They helped create the Amnesty International "Gaza Platform" that is filled with data that is provably wrong to reach conclusions that are obviously wrong.

In 2021, using their signature 3D modeling, they claimed that a Palestinian car ramming attack at a checkpoint was really a simple car accident whose driver was executed for no reason. Yet the video clearly shows both the car accelerating towards the soldiers - and that the driver jumped out of the car to attack them less than a second after the crash, something a stunned victim of an accident would never do.

In 2022, they teamed up with Al Haq and falsely accused Israel of targeting "cultural heritage sites" in Gaza. Not only were they wrong - Israel was shooting at rocket launchers on top of the site - but their own video proved that Hamas was building right on top of those old Roman ruins!

Later that year the two groups accused Israel is purposefully trying to create an ecological disaster in Gaza - using the worst possible munition for that purpose.

Now, Forensics Architecture is pretending that the explosion near the Al Ahli hospital was really from Israel:

Preliminary analysis by FA, @alhaq_org & @earshot_ngo into the #AlAhli hospital blast in Gaza casts significant doubt on IOF claims that the source of the deadly explosion was a Palestinian-fired rocket travelling west to east.

3D analysis shows patterns of radial fragmentation on the southwest side of the impact crater, as well as a shallow channel leading into the crater from the northeast. Such patterns indicate a likely projectile trajectory with northeast origins.

In reviewing our analysis, investigator & explosive weapons expert @CobbSmith agrees the fragmentation patterns may indicate the projectile came from the northeast—the direction of the Israeli-controlled side of the Gaza perimeter—and not from the west, as claimed by the IOF.

Our/@CobbSmith’s analysis of the crater size suggests a munition larger than eg a Spike or Hellfire missile commonly used by IOF drones. It is more consistent w/ the impact marks from an artillery shell—but w/o additional material evidence, we cannot make a definitive assessment.

@earshot_ngo analysed the recording released by IOF officials of an alleged exchange between members of Hamas implicating the Islamic Jihad in the attack. They found that the recording was manipulated and therefore not a credible source of evidence:

...A conclusive investigation into this attack requires full access to the site and munition fragments, as well as witness interviews. We continue our work on this case, and reaffirm our solidarity with Palestinian people under attack, including our friends & colleagues.

This is 9/11 Truther conspiracy theory level stuff. All evidence that shows it was Islamic Jihad, such as multiple videos of the rocket being shot from the same location as a salvo of other Gaza rockets, or how the rocket fuel would explain a huge fireball but no artillery shell would, is ignored.

The videos clearly show a rocket that fell apart in mid-air. Any analysis of direction after a mid-air breakup is useless - chances are the part that hit the parking lot of the hospital was corkscrewing towards the ground as it has probably lost its tailfins. Assuming their debris analysis is correct, it probably simply hit the ground while facing a southwest direction. (After I wrote this, I see that CNN's experts agree: "If the projectile malfunctioned and broke apart in the air, as CNN’s analysis suggests, the direction of impact reflected by the crater would not be a reliable finding.")

Interestingly, CNN interviewed the same Chris Cobb-Smith and he said something nearly the opposite than what Forensic Architecture says he said:

Cobb-Smith said that the conflagration following the blast was inconsistent with an artillery strike, but that it could not be entirely ruled out.

AP's analysis agrees with CNN and the IDF.

Of course the IDF manipulated the audio. They edited out information that was sensitive. As far as the two audio channels, chances are that they were wiretapping both ends of the conversation separately and combined them, and chose to use stereo to make it easier to understand.

But the most obvious proof that Forensic Architecture cannot be trusted - besides its track record of lying, that is - is that its own language calling the IDF the "IOF" ("Israel Occupation Forces," meaning that all of Israel is "occupied territory") and their statement of solidarity with Palestinians. They are admitting their agenda, proving that they are not even close to objective. They are only interesting in supporting their biases, not the truth.

The question is why any organization would pay them for consulting services, unless they want manipulated and biased results to begin with.

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01/04 Links Pt1: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict can't be solved, only ended; UNRWA paving the road to conflict; Iran vows response to Khamenei cartoons in Charlie Hebdo

From Ian:

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict can't be solved, only ended - opinion

It’s not about what Israel does, but about what Israel is and represents. That’s why many oppose Israel and support its enemies.

Attempts to find “solutions” were based on leftist assumptions that in order to have peace, Israel must make compromises and concessions. This was the basis of the Oslo Accords that legitimized the PLO and created the Palestinian Authority. The “peace process” was a hoax, a hype to bring Arafat and the PLO back to Israel and empower them.

This confused way of thinking persists. It is the basis of what is called the “two-state-solution,” (2SS) an independent Arab Palestinian state based on the 1949 Armistice lines, and support for United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

In response to threats from the EU, UN, and even the Biden administration, Israel concedes, which always leads to more problems. The IDF, COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) and police destroyed Jewish property for no rational reason and restrict building in settlements. Israeli leaders (including Netanyahu) went along with the fraud of trying to appease the Palestinians and those who supported them. Why should this absurdity continue? Who does it serve?

Jews who live in Judea, Samaria, and eastern Jerusalem are not “occupying Palestinian territory.” It is not “illegal,” and there is no basis for this accusation. Jews should be protected and encouraged wherever they live. That’s what Zionism means. That’s what the new government will hopefully do. Some are opposed, and some call for a “civil war.”

Our recent elections indicated that most Israelis want a realistic agenda that ensures their safety and security. Dealing with Palestinian terrorism is our first and foremost concern, and – as many understand, the PA/Hamas are unwilling and unable to stop it. Palestinian identity was and is based on a “one-state solution” – “from the river to the sea.” This goal, enabled and facilitated by the Oslo Accords, is why resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains elusive.

The most practical and realistic alternative to the 2SS is to recognize Jordan as the homeland of the Palestinians – all of those who want to live in peace. Engaging in and supporting terrorism and seeking Israel’s destruction is simply not an option. The conflict cannot be resolved, but it can be ended by understanding why it exists.

UNRWA paving the road to conflict

The 67 nations and 33 agencies which aid UNWRA do not demand a change in its policies that support the perpetuation of conflict. Op-ed.

Realizing the extent of incitement in UNRWA schools and summer camps, the Trump administration cut US funding to UNWRA in 2018 for lack of “accountability.” The Biden administration has resumed funding but only under the condition that its education curriculum is for peace.

Israel’s Ambassador to the United States and the UN, Gilad Erdan called for “countries to freeze contributions until UNRWA teachers expressing support terror are fired”. But the funding continues.

In 1967, following Israel’s victory in the Six Day War, when the IDF took control of the Arab populations of Judea and Samaria and Gaza, school textbooks used by Palestinian Arabs rejected Israel’s existence and incited violence. But, then placed under Israeli administration of COGAT,(Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories), new text books were implemented.

However, the signing of the Oslo accords on September 13, 1993, which would give the Palestinian Authority control over education in territories which they administered as a result of the agreements, saw a steady deterioration in the curriculum. Incitement to violence against Israel again abounded in what was supposed to be the beginnings of a process of reconciliation. With the OSLO Accords came the deterioration of UNWRA sponsored institutions, as anti-Israel propaganda proliferated in the territories.

Since Oslo, donor countries have not demanded accountability. Journalist, David Bedein who heads the Israel Resource News Agency and the author of ‘UNRWA Roadblock to Peace’, stated that when he posed the question to thirty-five of the sixty-seven nation which fund UNRWA, as to how they track the funds and where they are going, “they replied that they rely upon the rigorous oversight of UNRWA.”

Today, UNRWA facilities primes tomorrow’s generation for conflict. UNRWA should be seeking real solutions to what was the rejection by Arab nations of the partition of the land in 1947, according to UN resolution 181. Their leaders’ statements denying culpability belies their agenda, which is to allow perpetuation of conflict and the continued hope by Palestinian Arabs to flood Israel with refugees.

Iran vows response to Khamenei cartoons in French satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo

Iran warned France on Wednesday it would respond after “insulting” cartoons depicting Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were published in the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.

The weekly had published dozens of cartoons on the same day ridiculing the highest religious and political figure in the Islamic Republic.

The magazine said the cartoons were part of a competition it launched in December in support of the protests triggered by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurd who was arrested for allegedly violating the country’s strict dress code for women.

“The insulting and indecent act of a French publication in publishing cartoons against the religious and political authority will not go without an effective and decisive response,” tweeted Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

“We will not allow the French government to go beyond its bounds. They have definitely chosen the wrong path.”

The French magazine said the contest aimed “to support the struggle of Iranians who are fighting for their freedom.”

Israel's perfect record of avoiding civilian deaths in Syria in 2022

The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights reports:

Two unidentified gunmen, likely to belong to Lebanese Hezbollah, were killed due to the Israeli attacks near Damascus International Airport and the vicinity of Damascus, where the attacks targeted a Hezbollah warehouse containing weapons and logistic materials in a farm located between Al-Saida Zainab and Al-Bajdaliyah, destroying it completely, amid reports of more casualties in the site.

Israel fired four missiles on positions of Iranian militias in the vicinity of Damascus International Airport and farms in Al-Saida Zainab area in Rif Dimashq, where ambulance vehicles rushed to the site. However, no casualties were reported.

This indicates two things: that Iran is hiding its weapons en route to Hezbollah in farms - and that Israeli intelligence is finding them.

But that is not the only impressive feat of Israeli intel mentioned in this article. It has a tally of those killed by similar Israeli attacks in Syria this year:

SOHR documented 32 airstrikes and ground rocket attacks since the beginning of 2022, during which Israel targeted several positions in Syria, destroying nearly 90 targets, including buildings, warehouses, headquarters, centres, and vehicles. These strikes killed 85 military personnel and injured 115 others, as well as injury of 23 civilians, including a little girl and at least three women.
The deaths were as follows:
• Two Iranian officers operating under the banner of Al-Quds Corps.
• Ten Iranian-backed Syrian fighters.
• 29 Iranian-backed fighters of non-Syrian nationality.
• 36 Soldiers and air defence officers of regime forces.
• Eight collaborators with Lebanese Hezbollah.

That is a perfect record in avoiding deaths for civilians. Given that many of these airstrikes were in cities, that is a further indication of the depth of Israeli intelligence - and not incidentally, that many Syrian informers do not want Iran taking over their country.

In 2021, there were several civilians reported dead during Israeli airstrikes, but most of them seem to have been killed by debris from Syrian anti-missile systems falling to the ground in populated areas.

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The UN doesn't care when Palestinians are killed by Palestinian rockets

The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the territories, OCHA-OPT, issues biweekly reports on civilian casualties and other issues.

After Operation Breaking Dawn, it summarized:

During the escalation, 49 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip, of whom at least 22 were civilians, including 17 children and four women, according to OHCHR.

The report implies that all the Palestinians were killed by Israel, but in its statistics section showing the cumulative casualties during the year (there were no deaths in Gaza before August) it adds a footnote:

The report itself says nothing about Palestinian rockets that fell short; you need to read between the lines of the statistics to find out that the UN was still investigating how these 13 - or, if you do the math of 49-35, 14 - were killed.

So what happened to this footnote in the latest bulletin?

It disappeared, yet the number of those killed in Gaza - 35 - remained the same.

This means that between August 15 and August 29, the UN determined with certainty that 14 Palestinians - including many children - were killed by Gaza rockets.

But they never reported that fact.

Even though their entire purpose is to protect civilians, when Gaza civilians are killed by Palestinian militants, they go out of their way to not report it - and instead, their report text still implies that Israel killed them.

This isn't a mistake or an oversight. The UN consciously counted the casualties, determined that 14 were killed by Islamic Jihad and their allies, and chose not to report those civilian deaths instead of reporting to the world that Gaza terrorists kill their own people.

Sometimes, the bias can be seen in the details. And once you see it here, there is no other way to interpret the text of these two reports outside of a desire to maximize blame to Israel and minimize it for Islamic Jihad.

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Arab media more honest about Islamic Jihad killing Gaza civilians than Western media and "human rights" groups

Amira Hass in Haaretz published a detailed account of the Gazans who died in Operation Breaking Dawn and the circumstances of each death. I disagree with several of her conclusions, and she doesn't identify all of their affiliations with terror groups, but on the whole it is a reasonably fair article that squarely blames Islamic Jihad for the deaths of 19 civilians including 12 children, far more than were killed in Israeli attacks that were targeting terrorists and military targets.

Despite Palestinian media attributing all deaths to Israeli attacks, Gazans know well that a very high number of victims stemmed from failed rocket launches by Islamic Jihad.

The high number of fatalities from so-called internal fire has embittered Palestinians, some Gazans told Haaretz.

Amira Hass is a reliably anti-Israel reporter for Haaretz, often quoted by anti-Zionist activists and faux "human rights" professionals.

Which is why this article is being nearly universally ignored by the anti-Israel crowd who have insisted that every dead child was "murdered" by Israel - and fundraised based on that lie.

The only exception I could find was James Zogby, prominent Arab American and pollster, who took advantage of the fact that the Haaretz article is only visible to subscribers - so he misrepresented the article as saying that all the civilians were "murdered " by Israel.

Mainstream media journalists, who follow Haaretz religiously, have also ignored this story that damns Islamic Jihad for its responsibility for the bulk of the civilians killed. At best they have maintained a "he said, she said" narrative where Israel tells the truth and the Palestinians deny it.

It is essentially a conspiracy of silence to make sure that the world doesn't learn the truth, outside of the one failed rocket attack Israel documented in Jabalia.

But Arabic-language media has no such qualms.

Arabic sites, including the influential UK-based Al Quds, have translated and published the Haaretz article. It was also translated in the popular NABD news aggregator. The article is even in one Palestinian media outlet that regularly translates Hebrew articles into Arabic, as well as in "Palestine Forum."

The Arab world, including Palestinians, is being more honest about Islamic Jihad's culpability in the deaths of children than the Western mainstream media has been.

The worst of all in attempting to hide these deaths are the very "human rights groups" whose job is to protect these civilians. They know the truth very well but have done everything they can to hide it.

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!

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