Iran isn't only violating the IAEA rules - it is flouting them

The Institute for Science and International Security wrote an article summarizing Iran's violations of nuclear agreements with the IAEA. 

It's even worse than the media are reporting. There is little doubt that Iran is actively hiding its nuclear enrichment program, and there is no non-military reason to do what Iran has now been proven to do.

Excerpts:

Iran can now break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days, using only three advanced centrifuge cascades and half of its existing stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for inspectors to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access.

Using its remaining stock of 60 percent enriched uranium and its stock of near 20 percent enriched uranium, Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for an additional four nuclear weapons in a month. During the next two months, Iran could produce two more weapons’ worth of weapon-grade uranium from its stock of less than five percent enriched uranium, meaning that Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for five nuclear weapons in one month and seven in three months.

The IAEA detected uranium particles enriched to 83.7 percent from environmental sampling taken during a monthly interim verification (IIV) at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) on January 22. Iran’s answers about this anomaly did not satisfy the IAEA, which has continued probing Iran for more credible answers.

The IAEA took the environmental samples that detected the presence of near-84 percent enriched uranium a day after inspectors detected an undeclared interconnection between two IR-6 cascades at Fordow, which Iran should have informed the IAEA about under its safeguards obligations. That change likely led the IAEA to take environmental samples at the product sampling point.

This development amplifies concerns that Iran is undertaking covert experiments that add to its ability to more rapidly break out. Worrisome possibilities include that Iran tested a way to produce near weapon-grade uranium without IAEA detection, or to syphon off a small amount of near 84 percent enriched uranium.

If the high enrichment level was unintentional, as Iran claims, Iran should have reported the unprecedented enrichment level following the interconnection of the two IR-6 cascades, in line with its reporting of previous fluctuations in the enrichment levels encountered by Iran with the advanced centrifuge cascades dedicated to enriching to 60 percent at the pilot plant. If Iran did not know that the enrichment level reached almost 84 percent, it appears to be operating cascades in a dangerous way, somewhat oblivious to criticality concerns.

Despite the increase, during this reporting period, in the amount of uranium enriched between two and five percent, Iran has not prioritized stockpiling of this material, during the last two years. This is at odds with its contention that its primary goal is to accumulate 4-5 percent enriched uranium for use in nuclear power reactor fuel. Instead, Iran has used this stock extensively to produce near 20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium, far beyond any of Iran’s civilian needs.

Iran is now reported to be willing to cooperate with the IAEA, although they have made that promise before and lied. And, the Institute notes that this wouldn't help at all for undeclared Iranian sites:

Another risk is that Iran will establish additional centrifuge manufacturing sites unknown to the IAEA. Iran is fully capable of moving manufacturing equipment to new, undeclared sites, further complicating any future verification effort and contributing to uncertainty about where Iran manufactures centrifuges.

...

Concern about Iran’s installation of advanced centrifuges at an undeclared site is magnified as its 60 percent HEU stocks grow. Such a scenario becomes more worrisome and viable, since it requires a relatively small number of advanced centrifuge cascades to rapidly enrich the 60 percent material to weapon-grade. This hybrid strategy involves the diversion of safeguarded HEU and the secret manufacture and deployment of only two or three cascades of advanced centrifuges. With greater uncertainty about the number of advanced centrifuges Iran is making, there is a greater chance of Iran hiding away the requisite number of advanced centrifuges to realize this scenario.

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02/20 Links Pt1: How the Palestinians Lost their Way; US planned to veto UNSC resolution on settlements, PA knew this; IAEA find uranium enriched to 84% purity in Iran

From Ian:

How the Palestinians Lost their Way

From the time Israel was established in 1948, the Palestinians missed many opportunities to make peace. The late Israeli foreign minister Abba Eban put succinctly when he stated: “the Palestinians never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity,” a fact that prevented a multitude of young Palestinians from enjoying the fruits of peace and becoming constructive players in nation-building who are able to take pride in their achievements.

Starting with their refusal to accept the UN partition plan in 1947, the Palestinians have indisputably missed a number of opportunities, but it will suffice to name only a few. Following the Six Day War in 1967, the Palestinians turned down Israel’s offer to return all the territories captured in war in exchange for peace (with the exception of the final status of Jerusalem). In 1977, the Palestinians rejected the invitation to join the Israeli-Egyptian peace negotiations which could have resulted in in an Israeli-Palestinian peace along with the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement signed in 1979.

At Camp David in 2000, the Palestinians missed another historic opportunity and walked away the last minute when a comprehensive agreement was afoot. The most violent uprising—the Second Intifada—that began a few months later stunned the Israelis who concluded that Palestinians are simply not interested in peace. And finally, in 2007-2008 the Palestinians once more walked away from negotiations, this time over a disagreement in connection with percentages of land swaps.

Since then, largely under Netanyahu’s and Abbas’ leadership, no substantive peace negotiations have taken place, and sadly a fourth generation of Palestinians is now flagging between corrupt dictatorial leadership, self-destructive extremism, and no prospect for any meaningful life. Neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas have any plans or strategy that will bring an end to the most destructive conflict to which they have subjected their youth for 55 years and counting.

This is how the Palestinians lost their way. As they continue to revel in the illusion that they can destroy Israel, they in fact are sowing the seeds of their own destruction. It’s time to wake up before they forfeit the next generation’s chance to live in peace and realize their dreams and aspirations to prosper in their own country, which they richly deserve if only given the opportunity.

US lawmakers introduce bills to halt flow of American tax dollars to UNRWA

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) formally introduced The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Accountability and Transparency Act on Friday, which aims to stop the flow of American taxpayer dollars to that body.

“UNRWA’s lengthy and detailed history of promoting anti-Semitism, violence and terrorism through ‘educational’ materials, and its continued ties to Hamas, should completely disqualify this corrupt entity from receiving any U.S. taxpayer funding,” said Roy when announcing the bill.

“UNRWA has failed to meet previous commitments to stop its hostility towards Israel, and it is an obstacle to peace. Israel is one of our greatest allies and closest friends; we cannot say we truly stand with them while helping prop up a corrupt organization like this. If our actions do not match our words, then our word means nothing,” he added.

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, introduced a companion bill into that chamber on Wednesday.

UNRWA, which tends to some five million descendants of Arabs displaced in Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, employs those affiliated with Hamas, and its schools have been used by the Palestinian terrorist group to store weapons and promote anti-Semitic propaganda.

The Trump Administration cut off U.S. funding to UNRWA in 2018, a move that the Biden administration reversed.

The bills would require reforms of UNRWA before any U.S. taxpayer dollars are directed to the organization. Specifically, the Biden administration would need to certify that:
• No UNRWA employee is a member of a terrorist organization such as Hamas or Hezbollah, or has advocated terrorist activity, or propagated anti-American, anti-Israel, or anti-Semitic rhetoric.
• No UNRWA infrastructure or resource is being used by terrorist organizations.
• UNRWA is subject to a comprehensive financial audit and has implemented a system of vetting and oversight to prevent any diversion of UNRWA resources to terrorist organizations.
• No UNRWA school or facility uses textbooks or other educational materials to disseminate anti-American, anti-Israel, or anti-Semitic rhetoric.
• No recipient of UNRWA funds is a member or affiliate of a foreign terrorist organization.
• UNRWA holds no affiliations with financial institutions that the United States deems or believes to be complicit in financing terrorism.

Inside schools in east Jerusalem: How hate is taught

What is happening inside schools in east Jerusalem? Witnesses came to speak with Israel Hayom to expose the environment in which students are taught in the eastern part of the capital. While they are not directly inciting terror, the environment in which students are taught in some schools raises difficult questions.

"Teachers sit in the teachers' room quite contently after terrorist attacks. They aren't concerned about the death of Israelis, and some of them even say 'hopefully the wounded will die'. There are others that do not publicly express joy, but in their hearts, they are happy – or at the very least, they just don't care," says one teacher who has taught for the last decade in a school in the eastern part of the city.

"Many teachers identify with the Palestinian cause. Israel's existence is a technicality for them, that they put up with as they have no choice, but they do not feel any sentiment towards Israel. You might even overhear a teacher in the hallway say to him or herself 'may God free us from the occupation, Israel must disappear'," the teacher adds.

"There are also extremist teachers teaching Islam in a way that brainwashes children, and the message that the students receive is that it's okay to persecute Jews", the teacher explains. "For example, a mathematics teacher who decides to devote the last 15 minutes of class every day to teach religion. Some will say to the kids: Don't watch television, it's against Islam. Some of these teachers support the Arab Liberation Front – a movement of radical Islam."

Not all these movements directly incite violence. However, none of these movements encourage the students to look at Israel as a partner instead of an enemy. Another teacher that taught at a girls' school in east Jerusalem explains "teachers did not discuss politics in the classroom because classes were supervised, and it is forbidden. Any teacher that does that knows that he or she is putting his or her job at risk."

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